Flu Pandemic Statistics

[AllieBaba]

Statistics are easily doctored and they all do it anyway.

Please provide you own statistical analysis that shows how these numbers are doctored.

Feel free to incorporate a p value in there to support your hypothesis.

Until then;

Shut the fuck up.

There is no need to doctor the numbers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Its mostly hysteria - this flu season is looking to be quite mild compared to past seasons. As the health official I quoted previously said - if you get the swine flu - you're lucky it's not the "regular" flu!

Once again. The swine flu is only reported if the person suffering it goes to the hospital. They aren't even testing the people who are showing up in clinics.

So the numbers are meaningless and misleading. We don't know how many people who get swine flu die from it, because nobody's bothering to keep track.

 

[geauxtohell]

Statistics are easily doctored and they all do it anyway.

Please provide you own statistical analysis that shows how these numbers are doctored.

Feel free to incorporate a p value in there to support your hypothesis.

Until then;

Shut the fuck up.

There is no need to doctor the numbers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Its mostly hysteria - this flu season is looking to be quite mild compared to past seasons. As the health official I quoted previously said - if you get the swine flu - you're lucky it's not the "regular" flu!

Other than repeating the 14 other times your logic has been shown to be spurious in this thread, compiled with what the experts in the field have stated, I see no need to lend any credibility to your opinion on this matter.

Your need to downplay a very real public health concern is virtually pathological.

 

[Sinatra]

Please provide you own statistical analysis that shows how these numbers are doctored.

Feel free to incorporate a p value in there to support your hypothesis.

Until then;

Shut the fuck up.

There is no need to doctor the numbers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Its mostly hysteria - this flu season is looking to be quite mild compared to past seasons. As the health official I quoted previously said - if you get the swine flu - you're lucky it's not the "regular" flu!

Once again. The swine flu is only reported if the person suffering it goes to the hospital. They aren't even testing the people who are showing up in clinics.

So the numbers are meaningless and misleading. We don't know how many people who get swine flu die from it, because nobody's bothering to keep track.

Sounds like a lot of health clinics think its overhyped as well.

Just a few more weeks folks - and then we can come back to this thread and you will realize it was a lot of hype - you may feel a bit foolish for buying into it. Nobody likes to admit they were crapped their drawers over next to nothin' - but no biggie.

There may be big bad virus comin' our way some day, but this swine flu is not it, and the numbers prove it out. Even if you want to discount those numbers now because "nobody's bothering to keep track"

Now go relax and open up a good bottle of wine - LIFE IS GOOD!!!!!

 

[geauxtohell]

Works for me - as well as my multivits, 2 mile a day run, and a positive outlook on life!!

I enjoy a blessed life!

You think it works for you.

If it really works or not is determined over a much larger population than "1". That's why we don't rely on anecdotal evidence, we rely on the data.

I am sensing that concept, and analyzing the data, go over the top of your head like a tent.

Unfortunately for you, the FDA has recalled ZICAM. It had something to do with a toxic metal destroying the olfactory bulbs or something.

Go figure.

Now go on with your "vaccines are dangerous" tirade.

 

[Sinatra]

Please provide you own statistical analysis that shows how these numbers are doctored.

Feel free to incorporate a p value in there to support your hypothesis.

Until then;

Shut the fuck up.

There is no need to doctor the numbers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Its mostly hysteria - this flu season is looking to be quite mild compared to past seasons. As the health official I quoted previously said - if you get the swine flu - you're lucky it's not the "regular" flu!

Other than repeating the 14 other times your logic has been shown to be spurious in this thread, compiled with what the experts in the field have stated, I see no need to lend any credibility to your opinion on this matter.

Your need to downplay a very real public health concern is virtually pathological.

Every flu season is a "public health concern" - this flu season is no different - and no worse.

Come back in a few weeks and we'll see who is right.

Do you really believe there will be a much greater amount of death from swine flu than regular flu? If so, what do you base that upon - the statistics simply don't prove that out.

...but I'm looking forward to hearing what you have to say, so long as you don't simply curse and cuss. That gets rather boring and utterly predictable...

 

[Emma]

I have a portfolio rich in drug-related stocks. This swine flu scare has made me a pretty penny - but that does not mean the false hysteria is right, and should continue to be perpetrated. And Tamiflu is rubbish. I do use Zicam though...

And you have the balls to tell us that we don't know what we are talking about?

 

[Emma]

Please provide you own statistical analysis that shows how these numbers are doctored.

Feel free to incorporate a p value in there to support your hypothesis.

Until then;

Shut the fuck up.

There is no need to doctor the numbers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Its mostly hysteria - this flu season is looking to be quite mild compared to past seasons. As the health official I quoted previously said - if you get the swine flu - you're lucky it's not the "regular" flu!

Other than repeating the 14 other times your logic has been shown to be spurious in this thread, compiled with what the experts in the field have stated, I see no need to lend any credibility to your opinion on this matter.

Your need to downplay a very real public health concern is virtually pathological.

Exactly. What's his purpose behind all of this nonsense? In the face of overwhelming evidence and, well, facts, he continues to cling to his fantasy and simply repost the same BS over and over. This goes deeper than someone who is too muleheaded to admit they might be wrong.

 

[geauxtohell]

Amusing, but not applicable.

And again, not facts relating to the subject...

The fact that you don't get how appropriate the analogy was when stacked against your statistical innumeracy further supports the notion that you came into this gunfight with a butter knife.

County health officer describes swine flu as 'quite mild'

Wow. A "county health officer" from Pig's Knuckle, Arkansas thinks this is no big deal? I guess that settles it. I mean, after all, he deals with .000000001% of the population.

This is getting painful.

It should also be noted in your previous post you linked, you based a 1% serious incident equaling 3 million people because there are 300 million in the United States. What you don't appear to understand, by choice or simple ignorance, is that a great many in the United States are already immune to the swine flu - they've had it already. And this does not even include the older crowd who appear to have antibodies from a previous version.

Really? Feel free to provide some numbers to back this up. Don't forget that, as you pointed out, the CDC stopped typing Flu A over the summer.

Here, I'll play "you" and help you. My glass has about ninety people in it. One of them got h1N1 (presumably) this summer. That means 1/90. Thus, only slightly more than 1% of the population is already immune. Bummer.

I guess statistical stupidity isn't as fun when it's being used against you.

You should also note that the big upswing in reported flu patients is due to the fact that unlike previous years, the CDC this time included earlier weeks in their official flu season graphs, as noted here:

*Influenza season officially begins each year at week 40. This season data from week 35 will be included to show the trend of influenza activity before the official start of the 2009-10 influenza season.

Because, unlike the seasonal flu, this strain has been infecting people all summer, you moron.

Just relax kid - this flu ain't much of anything to worry yourself over...

I am not a kid.

I also have seen what this strain can do with my own two eyes. You insistence apples are oranges is meaningless to me.

 

[geauxtohell]

"ZICAM. For those too dumb to know the difference. Rush Limbaugh approved."

"However, for ZICAM to work you have to apply it immediately when you think you have a cold. So apply ZICAM everytime you have a sniffle and be amazed at how many cases of the flu it cures!" - This statement not approved by the FDA

 

[Emma]

"ZICAM. For those too dumb to know the difference. Rush Limbaugh approved."

"However, for ZICAM to work you have to apply it immediately when you think you have a cold. So apply ZICAM everytime you have a sniffle and be amazed at how many cases of the flu it cures!" - This statement not approved by the FDA

When that crap came out, I tried it. Once. I didn't need the FDA to tell me it could obliterate your olfactory bulbs. Dear God that stuff burned like hell. Maybe that's how it *works*. I sure as hell forgot about my cold for a while.

 

[geauxtohell]

Exactly. What's his purpose behind all of this nonsense? In the face of overwhelming evidence and, well, facts, he continues to cling to his fantasy and simply repost the same BS over and over. This goes deeper than someone who is too muleheaded to admit they might be wrong.

I would only venture to guess.

It only gets amusing when he has to crook the numbers to support his opinion.

 

[geauxtohell]

"ZICAM. For those too dumb to know the difference. Rush Limbaugh approved."

"However, for ZICAM to work you have to apply it immediately when you think you have a cold. So apply ZICAM everytime you have a sniffle and be amazed at how many cases of the flu it cures!" - This statement not approved by the FDA

When that crap came out, I tried it. Once. I didn't need the FDA to tell me it could obliterate your olfactory bulbs. Dear God that stuff burned like hell. Maybe that's how it *works*. I sure as hell forgot about my cold for a while.

It's like opiates.

They won't do a damn thing for your pain, you just won't give a fuck.

 

[Sinatra]

Sinatra. Do you follow baseball?

Who is the best home run hitter of all time? It's Tony Clark.

On April 6, 2009, Tony Clark of the Diamondbacks had 2 HR. That is a rate of 2 HR per game.

In 2001, Barry Bonds his 73 HR in 162 games. That is a rate of 0.45 HR per game.

Therefore Tony Clark is a better home run hitter than Barry Bonds.

Sinatratistics at its BEST!

The awesomeness of this post must be re posted.

That and I just barely passed med stats.

Amusing, but not applicable.

And again, not facts relating to the subject...

___


County health officer describes swine flu as 'quite mild'


Howard County Health Officer Peter Beilenson has a message for residents who've come down with the so-called swine flu: You're lucky.

"You are very, very lucky to have H1N1 and not the seasonal flu," he told a room of about 75 people attending a town hall meeting about the flu, also called the swine flu, held in the Ten Oaks Ballroom in Clarksville Monday night.

Beilenson, who described the H1N1 virus as "quite mild," told residents that he believes he had the virus this summer as did one of his children. He said symptoms lasted about five days...

___

It should also be noted in your previous post you linked, you based a 1% serious incident equaling 3 million people because there are 300 million in the United States. What you don't appear to understand, by choice or simple ignorance, is that a great many in the United States are already immune to the swine flu - they've had it already. And this does not even include the older crowd who appear to have antibodies from a previous version.

To give some needed perspective to your doom n gloom 1% of 300 million attempt, please review the following from the latest CDC update.

Pneumonia and Influenza Hospitalization and Death Tracking:

This new system was implemented on August 30, 2009, and replaces the weekly report of laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations and deaths that began in April 2009. Jurisdictions can now report to CDC either laboratory confirmed or pneumonia and influenza syndromic-based counts of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza, not just those from 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. To allow jurisdictions to implement the new case definition, counts were reset to zero on August 30, 2009. From August 30 – October 10, 2009, 4,958 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated hospitalizations, 292 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated deaths, 15,696 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based hospitalizations, and 2,029 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based deaths, were reported to CDC. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-10 influenza season.

You should also note that the big upswing in reported flu patients is due to the fact that unlike previous years, the CDC this time included earlier weeks in their official flu season graphs, as noted here:

*Influenza season officially begins each year at week 40. This season data from week 35 will be included to show the trend of influenza activity before the official start of the 2009-10 influenza season.

So we have had 4,958 laboratory confirmed influenza associated hospitilazations since the start of this flu season. (Not necessarily swine flu mind you - but influenza associated hospitilazations - BIG difference.) And a grand total of 292 laboratory confirmed influenza related deaths - not swine flu mind you - but influenza related deaths. Again, BIG difference.

So let us now take your 1% serious cases statement and apply it to far more real numbers than your ludicrous 1% of 300 million equals 3 million serious cases scenario...(indicating every man, woman, and child in America would fall ill to the H1N1 virus )

According to Swine Flu Count, which updates every four hours, there have been 62,759 confirmed/uncomfirmed cases of Swine Flu in the United States - please not this number is not just for this flu season but for previous months as well. (Which by the way, shows a flu already leveling off) Based on your 1% serious cases statement, that would equate to 677 serious cases. The actual percentage is higher, given there have been 1010 confirmed/uncomfirmed swine flu deaths - but the impact upon the overall US population is so far below your 1% from 300 million assertion as to make you appear willingly out of your mind. (The current death to case ratio being about 1.6%)

Lastly, did you know that during the Flu season of 2006, the influenza-related deaths accounted for approximately 7.4% of all U.S. deaths.

This past week? Just 6.5% Significantly LOWER.


Just relax kid - this flu ain't much of anything to worry yourself over...


CDC - Seasonal Influenza (Flu) - Flu Activity & Surveillance

Swine Flu Count - Worldwide statistics of the H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic

No one else can dispute the above.

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.

 

[AllieBaba]

You apparently also missed my multiple posts about the training I went to about H1N1 where the CDC reps and the local health clinic employees were completely horrified and freaked out because they'd just spent 4 weeks trying to contain an outbreak at a camp in one of the most isolated places on earth...a camp in Antelope, Oregon. Where kids were laying in cots outside because the camp wasn't prepared to deal with dozens of kids with H1N1, and those people were scared. They were scared for a variety of reasons, not the least being that nobody was testing for H1N1 unless the patients were in HOSPITALS.

 

[AllieBaba]

Whoops, sorry, three phone calls between the beginning of that post and the end. Have no idea who I was responding to. My apologies.

 

[Sinatra]

You apparently also missed my multiple posts about the training I went to about H1N1 where the CDC reps and the local health clinic employees were completely horrified and freaked out because they'd just spent 4 weeks trying to contain an outbreak at a camp in one of the most isolated places on earth...a camp in Antelope, Oregon. Where kids were laying in cots outside because the camp wasn't prepared to deal with dozens of kids with H1N1, and those people were scared. They were scared for a variety of reasons, not the least being that nobody was testing for H1N1 unless the patients were in HOSPITALS.

That has not been the case pard.

I know of at least ten people just in my gated neighborhood alone who were tested at the local health clinic right quick. Same goes for family in another state (Arizona) no issues getting tested and going back home -and the same for yet more family in Texas. And the CDC itself shows less than a fourth (give or take) of tested people are actually showing up positive for the flu virus even as they complain of flu like symptoms - hysteria induced symptoms perhaps? Which might be why - if your example is in fact correct, some health practitioners are sending people home with basic flu advice - get your rest. Take some flu medicine. Have a nice day...

But then again, that is simply more anecdotal evidence to go with your own.

For now the actual statistics don't lie - this flu season does not appear to be any worse than previous ones - except for the heightened hysteria.

 

[Emma]

No one else can dispute the above.

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.

It's been disputed. And refuted. That you are in denial doesn't change the fact that you've been shot down in flames.

 

[AllieBaba]

I don't think we had 2 kids die of the flu in Umatilla County last year...particuarly this early in the season.

 

[Sinatra]

I don't think we had 2 kids die of the flu in Umatilla County last year...particuarly this early in the season.

The shift in population impacted by this flu is different - but it appears the overall fatalities are not - and perhaps actually less.

If a parent has a child with underlying health issues, they should take all precautions available to them - as they do with any flu season, and this strain of flu in particular.

But for the vast majority of the population - no biggie...

 

[geauxtohell]

No one else can dispute the above.

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.

Let me explain this to you again.

The opinion of a county health director of Howard County, Maryland, which has about 250,000 residents, does not equal a scientific consensus.

Nor does it speak for the entire country.