How to Understand Obama's Unemployment Figures

[pinqy]

I'm at a loss as to why anyone thinks that political meddling of important statistics is a good idea. It's not.

It's election year obama is running for re-election his appointee's control the release of the numbers, obama is a corrupt politician, and his appointee's are less than reliable not trust worthy corrupt people, and you say you are at a loss why would anyone want to manipulate the numbers?

No, I'm questioning why YOU and Foxfyre think the Sec Labor and/or the President should be able to meddle.

I specifically said there IS oversight and there's certainly accountability. There is NOT political interference or micromanaging.

Who does the oversight? The government?

"The Government" is not a monolith. OMB provides oversight, so does Congress.

Who do you think should provide oversight?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's the process:
On January 15th, collection for the Employment Situation started. Census sent out interviewers to over 15,000 households across the country and made telephone calls to about 45,000 more (who all had previously been interviewed in person). This was for the Current Population Survey (Labor Force Data) and it took all week with all questions being about the week of Jan 8-14.

At the same time, BLS employees recieved reports or initiated interviews with around 486,000 individual worksites asking about the pay period that included Jan 8-14. This was the Current Employment Statistics Survey (non-farm payroll...jobs gained/lost).

Initial processing, collation, follow-ups etc happened during the week of Jan 22-28.

January 30, the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics went into lockdown with no one outside the office could not enter the offices without escort (this includes cleaning and maintenance staff) as the final report was put together (Employment Situation) 42 pages. On Thursday, February 2nd, the report was given to the Commissioner to sign off, and the report was sent to GPO for publishing. The Chief of the Council of Economic Advisors was given an advance copy.

At 8:00am on February 3rd, the Secretary of Labor was given a copy and the press were put into a tiny room and their computers, tablets, and phones were confiscated. Then they were given the release and could write their notes with pen and paper.

At exactly 8:30 am by the Naval Observatory, the report was issued.

So riddle me this Batman....At what point would it have been possible to review and make changes? Keep in mind the number of tables and the huge amount of data for both reports. You change one data cell, you can change the numbers by thousands. You want to change the number of unemployed, you have to specify age, race, veteran status, disability, duration of unemployment, reason for unemploymnent, occupation, native or immigrant and probably a whole lot of things I'm forgetting.

So how do you think it could be manipulated?

Now you're grasping for straws The numbers are released by the government who took the numbers. The numbers are always in there control. they can be manipulated at anytime in the process.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Here's the process:
On January 15th, collection for the Employment Situation started. Census sent out interviewers to over 15,000 households across the country and made telephone calls to about 45,000 more (who all had previously been interviewed in person). This was for the Current Population Survey (Labor Force Data) and it took all week with all questions being about the week of Jan 8-14.

At the same time, BLS employees recieved reports or initiated interviews with around 486,000 individual worksites asking about the pay period that included Jan 8-14. This was the Current Employment Statistics Survey (non-farm payroll...jobs gained/lost).

Initial processing, collation, follow-ups etc happened during the week of Jan 22-28.

January 30, the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics went into lockdown with no one outside the office could not enter the offices without escort (this includes cleaning and maintenance staff) as the final report was put together (Employment Situation) 42 pages. On Thursday, February 2nd, the report was given to the Commissioner to sign off, and the report was sent to GPO for publishing. The Chief of the Council of Economic Advisors was given an advance copy.

At 8:00am on February 3rd, the Secretary of Labor was given a copy and the press were put into a tiny room and their computers, tablets, and phones were confiscated. Then they were given the release and could write their notes with pen and paper.

At exactly 8:30 am by the Naval Observatory, the report was issued.

So riddle me this Batman....At what point would it have been possible to review and make changes? Keep in mind the number of tables and the huge amount of data for both reports. You change one data cell, you can change the numbers by thousands. You want to change the number of unemployed, you have to specify age, race, veteran status, disability, duration of unemployment, reason for unemploymnent, occupation, native or immigrant and probably a whole lot of things I'm forgetting.

So how do you think it could be manipulated?

Now you're grasping for straws The numbers are released by the government who took the numbers. The numbers are always in there control. they can be manipulated at anytime in the process.

Potentially, sure. Probably, not at all. Proactively in the time period: impossible.

Fail.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's a non government controlled unemployment chart
Here's from 2012 it shows 9.1
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/gallup-daily-workforce.aspx

Correction that was from 2011
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February
Underemployment surged to 19.9% in February from 18.9% at the end of January
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February

 

[JakeStarkey]

Thanks, bigreb, you finally acted like an adult.

Is the Gallup numbers a survey? If so, describe it to us.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's the process:
On January 15th, collection for the Employment Situation started. Census sent out interviewers to over 15,000 households across the country and made telephone calls to about 45,000 more (who all had previously been interviewed in person). This was for the Current Population Survey (Labor Force Data) and it took all week with all questions being about the week of Jan 8-14.

At the same time, BLS employees recieved reports or initiated interviews with around 486,000 individual worksites asking about the pay period that included Jan 8-14. This was the Current Employment Statistics Survey (non-farm payroll...jobs gained/lost).

Initial processing, collation, follow-ups etc happened during the week of Jan 22-28.

January 30, the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics went into lockdown with no one outside the office could not enter the offices without escort (this includes cleaning and maintenance staff) as the final report was put together (Employment Situation) 42 pages. On Thursday, February 2nd, the report was given to the Commissioner to sign off, and the report was sent to GPO for publishing. The Chief of the Council of Economic Advisors was given an advance copy.

At 8:00am on February 3rd, the Secretary of Labor was given a copy and the press were put into a tiny room and their computers, tablets, and phones were confiscated. Then they were given the release and could write their notes with pen and paper.

At exactly 8:30 am by the Naval Observatory, the report was issued.

So riddle me this Batman....At what point would it have been possible to review and make changes? Keep in mind the number of tables and the huge amount of data for both reports. You change one data cell, you can change the numbers by thousands. You want to change the number of unemployed, you have to specify age, race, veteran status, disability, duration of unemployment, reason for unemploymnent, occupation, native or immigrant and probably a whole lot of things I'm forgetting.

So how do you think it could be manipulated?

Now you're grasping for straws The numbers are released by the government who took the numbers. The numbers are always in there control. they can be manipulated at anytime in the process.

Potentially, sure. Probably, not at all. Proactively in the time period: impossible.

Fail.

you defend obama way to much son Fail

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Thanks, bigreb, you finally acted like an adult.

Is the Gallup numbers a survey? If so, describe it to us.

They are showing numbers higher than the government released. Shouldn't you grow up?

 

[pinqy]

Here's the process:
On January 15th, collection for the Employment Situation started. Census sent out interviewers to over 15,000 households across the country and made telephone calls to about 45,000 more (who all had previously been interviewed in person). This was for the Current Population Survey (Labor Force Data) and it took all week with all questions being about the week of Jan 8-14.

At the same time, BLS employees recieved reports or initiated interviews with around 486,000 individual worksites asking about the pay period that included Jan 8-14. This was the Current Employment Statistics Survey (non-farm payroll...jobs gained/lost).

Initial processing, collation, follow-ups etc happened during the week of Jan 22-28.

January 30, the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics went into lockdown with no one outside the office could not enter the offices without escort (this includes cleaning and maintenance staff) as the final report was put together (Employment Situation) 42 pages. On Thursday, February 2nd, the report was given to the Commissioner to sign off, and the report was sent to GPO for publishing. The Chief of the Council of Economic Advisors was given an advance copy.

At 8:00am on February 3rd, the Secretary of Labor was given a copy and the press were put into a tiny room and their computers, tablets, and phones were confiscated. Then they were given the release and could write their notes with pen and paper.

At exactly 8:30 am by the Naval Observatory, the report was issued.

So riddle me this Batman....At what point would it have been possible to review and make changes? Keep in mind the number of tables and the huge amount of data for both reports. You change one data cell, you can change the numbers by thousands. You want to change the number of unemployed, you have to specify age, race, veteran status, disability, duration of unemployment, reason for unemploymnent, occupation, native or immigrant and probably a whole lot of things I'm forgetting.

So how do you think it could be manipulated?

Now you're grasping for straws The numbers are released by the government who took the numbers. The numbers are always in there control. they can be manipulated at anytime in the process.

How? By the time you know what the real data says, how on earth is there time to go back and change everything? And how do you get past Census and BEA (who have access to the raw data), not questioning why things don't match?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's the process:
On January 15th, collection for the Employment Situation started. Census sent out interviewers to over 15,000 households across the country and made telephone calls to about 45,000 more (who all had previously been interviewed in person). This was for the Current Population Survey (Labor Force Data) and it took all week with all questions being about the week of Jan 8-14.

At the same time, BLS employees recieved reports or initiated interviews with around 486,000 individual worksites asking about the pay period that included Jan 8-14. This was the Current Employment Statistics Survey (non-farm payroll...jobs gained/lost).

Initial processing, collation, follow-ups etc happened during the week of Jan 22-28.

January 30, the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics went into lockdown with no one outside the office could not enter the offices without escort (this includes cleaning and maintenance staff) as the final report was put together (Employment Situation) 42 pages. On Thursday, February 2nd, the report was given to the Commissioner to sign off, and the report was sent to GPO for publishing. The Chief of the Council of Economic Advisors was given an advance copy.

At 8:00am on February 3rd, the Secretary of Labor was given a copy and the press were put into a tiny room and their computers, tablets, and phones were confiscated. Then they were given the release and could write their notes with pen and paper.

At exactly 8:30 am by the Naval Observatory, the report was issued.

So riddle me this Batman....At what point would it have been possible to review and make changes? Keep in mind the number of tables and the huge amount of data for both reports. You change one data cell, you can change the numbers by thousands. You want to change the number of unemployed, you have to specify age, race, veteran status, disability, duration of unemployment, reason for unemploymnent, occupation, native or immigrant and probably a whole lot of things I'm forgetting.

So how do you think it could be manipulated?

Now you're grasping for straws The numbers are released by the government who took the numbers. The numbers are always in there control. they can be manipulated at anytime in the process.

How? By the time you know what the real data says, how on earth is there time to go back and change everything? And how do you get past Census and BEA (who have access to the raw data), not questioning why things don't match?

It's data collected by the government controlled by the government and released by the government. can you add 2+2 and get 4?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Thanks, bigreb, you finally acted like an adult.

Is the Gallup numbers a survey? If so, describe it to us.

They are showing numbers higher than the government released. Shouldn't you grow up?

In other words, you will not give it the scrutiny that you did the government numbers?

Then you are admitting that you are biased and we ignore your rant on this subejct.

Fail, oldson, fail.

 

[pinqy]

Here's a non government controlled unemployment chart
Here's from 2012 it shows 9.1
Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

Correction that was from 2011]

No, that was Jan. 2012.

Differences between the 2 surveys...

Gallup: 30,000 individuals/month ages 18+ contacted by random digit dialing, numbers not seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.7 percentage points.

BLS: 60,000 households (around 120,000 individuals)/month ages 16+ rotating panel conducted face to face or by telephone, official numbers seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.2 percentage points.

So for January, Gallup showed 9.1% +- 0.7 in other words between 8.6% and 9.8%
BLS unadjusted number showed 8.8% +- 0.2 .....so between 8.6% and 9.0%
At 95% Confidence, Gallup would be between 8.1% and 10.1% and BLS between 8.6% and 9.1%.

Not a statistically significant difference not even considering the methodological differences.

In short, you've shown that the Gallup survey matches up with the BLS survey.

 

[pinqy]

Now you're grasping for straws The numbers are released by the government who took the numbers. The numbers are always in there control. they can be manipulated at anytime in the process.

How? By the time you know what the real data says, how on earth is there time to go back and change everything? And how do you get past Census and BEA (who have access to the raw data), not questioning why things don't match?

It's data collected by the government controlled by the government and released by the government. can you add 2+2 and get 4?

I can. But simply stating that the data is collected "controlled" and released by the government is NOT evidence that it is incorrect unless you're a paranoid lunatic.

The rest of us would require actual evidence of wrong doing, which you've failed to show.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Bigreb so far has provided a Gallup poll that statistically validates the government numbers>

Bigreb so far has provided substantial evidence that undermines his own OP?

Bigreb is so . . . Bigreb!

None of us who knew ye, rebbie, expected anything different from you. You are just an old tarheel mule that has been in the locoweed again.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here's a non government controlled unemployment chart
Here's from 2012 it shows 9.1
Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

Correction that was from 2011]

No, that was Jan. 2012.

Differences between the 2 surveys...

Gallup: 30,000 individuals/month ages 18+ contacted by random digit dialing, numbers not seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.7 percentage points.

BLS: 60,000 households (around 120,000 individuals)/month ages 16+ rotating panel conducted face to face or by telephone, official numbers seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.2 percentage points.

So for January, Gallup showed 9.1% +- 0.7 in other words between 8.6% and 9.8%
BLS unadjusted number showed 8.8% +- 0.2 .....so between 8.6% and 9.0%
At 95% Confidence, Gallup would be between 8.1% and 10.1% and BLS between 8.6% and 9.1%.

Not a statistically significant difference not even considering the methodological differences.

In short, you've shown that the Gallup survey matches up with the BLS survey.

You just aren't getting it are you?
Is gallop controlled by the government?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Bigreb so far has provided a Gallup poll that statistically validates the government numbers>

Bigreb so far has provided substantial evidence that undermines his own OP?

Bigreb is so . . . Bigreb!

None of us who knew ye, rebbie, expected anything different from you. You are just an old tarheel mule that has been in the locoweed again.

jakes spouts bullshit like the one he serves obama.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

How? By the time you know what the real data says, how on earth is there time to go back and change everything? And how do you get past Census and BEA (who have access to the raw data), not questioning why things don't match?

It's data collected by the government controlled by the government and released by the government. can you add 2+2 and get 4?

I can. But simply stating that the data is collected "controlled" and released by the government is NOT evidence that it is incorrect unless you're a paranoid lunatic.

The rest of us would require actual evidence of wrong doing, which you've failed to show.

OK I work for the government I control the process collecting and releasing the data do you take my word?

 

[pinqy]

Here's a non government controlled unemployment chart
Here's from 2012 it shows 9.1
Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

Correction that was from 2011]

No, that was Jan. 2012.

Differences between the 2 surveys...

Gallup: 30,000 individuals/month ages 18+ contacted by random digit dialing, numbers not seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.7 percentage points.

BLS: 60,000 households (around 120,000 individuals)/month ages 16+ rotating panel conducted face to face or by telephone, official numbers seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.2 percentage points.

So for January, Gallup showed 9.1% +- 0.7 in other words between 8.6% and 9.8%
BLS unadjusted number showed 8.8% +- 0.2 .....so between 8.6% and 9.0%
At 95% Confidence, Gallup would be between 8.1% and 10.1% and BLS between 8.6% and 9.1%.

Not a statistically significant difference not even considering the methodological differences.

In short, you've shown that the Gallup survey matches up with the BLS survey.

You just aren't getting it are you?
Is gallop controlled by the government?

Nope, and their result is not statistically significantly different from the government's. You ask any statistician if the Gallup survey shows the BLS survey to be wrong, they would say "no."

 

[pinqy]

It's data collected by the government controlled by the government and released by the government. can you add 2+2 and get 4?

I can. But simply stating that the data is collected "controlled" and released by the government is NOT evidence that it is incorrect unless you're a paranoid lunatic.

The rest of us would require actual evidence of wrong doing, which you've failed to show.

OK I work for the government I control the process collecting and releasing the data do you take my word?

Well, if that's true then you're lying about your location which makes me question your truthfulness. And since you've displayed zero understanding of statistics, economics, or the numbers, it seems very unlikely (especially since collection and releasing are two seperate agencies).
And since I do know the people who process and release the data (though I've never been one) and meet with them several times a year, I know for a fact you're not telling the truth.

See, actual data points relevant to the particular topic that lead to the conclusion of untrustworthiness. This does not mean you lie about everything all the time nor does it mean you don't know your actual job very well.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

I can. But simply stating that the data is collected "controlled" and released by the government is NOT evidence that it is incorrect unless you're a paranoid lunatic.

The rest of us would require actual evidence of wrong doing, which you've failed to show.

OK I work for the government I control the process collecting and releasing the data do you take my word?

Well, if that's true then you're lying about your location which makes me question your truthfulness. And since you've displayed zero understanding of statistics, economics, or the numbers, it seems very unlikely (especially since collection and releasing are two seperate agencies).
And since I do know the people who process and release the data (though I've never been one) and meet with them several times a year, I know for a fact you're not telling the truth.

See, actual data points relevant to the particular topic that lead to the conclusion of untrustworthiness. This does not mean you lie about everything all the time nor does it mean you don't know your actual job very well.

So you wouldn't take my word on the numbers but you will take the word of the government who is run by a person that is running for re-election? Just how partisan are you?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

No, that was Jan. 2012.

Differences between the 2 surveys...

Gallup: 30,000 individuals/month ages 18+ contacted by random digit dialing, numbers not seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.7 percentage points.

BLS: 60,000 households (around 120,000 individuals)/month ages 16+ rotating panel conducted face to face or by telephone, official numbers seasonally adjusted. Margin of error at 90% confidence is +- 0.2 percentage points.

So for January, Gallup showed 9.1% +- 0.7 in other words between 8.6% and 9.8%
BLS unadjusted number showed 8.8% +- 0.2 .....so between 8.6% and 9.0%
At 95% Confidence, Gallup would be between 8.1% and 10.1% and BLS between 8.6% and 9.1%.

Not a statistically significant difference not even considering the methodological differences.

In short, you've shown that the Gallup survey matches up with the BLS survey.

You just aren't getting it are you?
Is gallop controlled by the government?

Nope, and their result is not statistically significantly different from the government's. You ask any statistician if the Gallup survey shows the BLS survey to be wrong, they would say "no."

Why is gallops numbers higher than obama's numbers?

BLS between 8.6% and 9.1%.

That is a crock of shit BLS reported 8.2 last report, the media reported it was 8.2 with no + or - just 8.2. So stop lying.