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You're wrong about everything.No, seriously
You are a statistical moron
No, seriously. I understand math and stat to a level beyond your comprehension.
But, you are free to believe the propaganda if you choose. I don't give a shit what you believe.
Too funny
You have a third grade understanding of statistics. No other explanation of why you make the posts you do
your stupidity knows no bounds. please look up "representative sample size" then look up "random sample" then look up "adjusted random sample" then look up "proportionally adjusted sample".
I'm sorry, but I am not here to be your instructor. You are free to post ignorant bullshit.
No, that would be you.
A lot of the Trump fans are clueless about polls.
Pollsters don't say "Gee, we need to sample more Democrats!".
Pollsters sample randomly, and then ask people to self-report their affiliation.
Lately, fewer people say they're Republicans. That doesn't mean the poll is biased. It means people are becoming ashamed to call themselves Republicans.
You're wrong about everything.No, seriously. I understand math and stat to a level beyond your comprehension.
But, you are free to believe the propaganda if you choose. I don't give a shit what you believe.
Too funny
You have a third grade understanding of statistics. No other explanation of why you make the posts you do
your stupidity knows no bounds. please look up "representative sample size" then look up "random sample" then look up "adjusted random sample" then look up "proportionally adjusted sample".
I'm sorry, but I am not here to be your instructor. You are free to post ignorant bullshit.
No, that would be you.
There, you lied again. I was right about you lying about Trump winning Bernie supporters and you admitted it.
Looks like a pattern is developing with the Clinton lead fluctuating in a 4-12% range
Trump, who once spent hours bragging about his polling numbers compared to his opponents will now claim they are biased
There are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, the polls are not unfairly skewed, they are accurately representing the populous.
When the poll has 20+ % skewed it does!
You're lying.
GROUPS – Partisanship can follow political preferences, and in this poll Democrats account for 36 percent of all adults and 37 percent of registered voters – a non-significant (+3) difference from last month. (The former is numerically its highest since 2009, the latter, since 2012.) Republicans account for 24 percent of all adults and 27 percent of registered voters, about their average in recent years, with the rest independents. This accounts for little of the shift in voter preferences, however. Even using the same party divisions from last month’s ABC/Post survey, in which Trump was +2, he’d now be -8. The reason, mentioned above, is his comparatively weak performance among Republicans – 77 percent support – compared with Clinton’s support among Democrats, 90 percent.
1000 people out of 330,000,000, yeah that's statistically meaningful------------NOT>
It is but we already know you don't understand how polls work.
I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.
Go Hillary!!!!!
There are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, the polls are not unfairly skewed, they are accurately representing the populous.More SKEWED demographics...... You would have thought they learned last week when they tried the same thing....making note that a NBCWSJ poll came out the same time with Clinton up by ONE point well within the MOE.... Thanks Manchurian Republican JakeAss for revealing yourself even more than you normally do!
bullshit, 40% of americans self identify as conservative, 20% as liberal.
Make your case then here is the poll data:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1178a12016Election.pdf
Show us how they got it wrong.
statistics 101. the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not the report on it. If you doubt that, check into who is paying the pollsters.
"Statistics 101?"
More like "Whining ideologues who don't understand statistics 101"
Looks like a pattern is developing with the Clinton lead fluctuating in a 4-12% range
Trump, who once spent hours bragging about his polling numbers compared to his opponents will now claim they are biased
Look, we all know that this election is about the swing states and the electoral college. General national polls are meaningless. If 500 of the 1000 sampled are in California the poll is worthless, for instance.
There is a long time until November and there will be debates, FBI investigations, e-mail disclosures, and a lot of campaign ads.
This election comes down to whether the country wants to continue the slide into failed European socialism or return to the constitution and freedom.
Both candidates have high negatives, its a question of which way the majority want the country to go.
He actually took statistics at Trump University.When the poll has 20+ % skewed it does!
You're lying.
GROUPS – Partisanship can follow political preferences, and in this poll Democrats account for 36 percent of all adults and 37 percent of registered voters – a non-significant (+3) difference from last month. (The former is numerically its highest since 2009, the latter, since 2012.) Republicans account for 24 percent of all adults and 27 percent of registered voters, about their average in recent years, with the rest independents. This accounts for little of the shift in voter preferences, however. Even using the same party divisions from last month’s ABC/Post survey, in which Trump was +2, he’d now be -8. The reason, mentioned above, is his comparatively weak performance among Republicans – 77 percent support – compared with Clinton’s support among Democrats, 90 percent.
1000 people out of 330,000,000, yeah that's statistically meaningful------------NOT>
It is but we already know you don't understand how polls work.
I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.
Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.
He actually took statistics at Trump University.You're lying.
GROUPS – Partisanship can follow political preferences, and in this poll Democrats account for 36 percent of all adults and 37 percent of registered voters – a non-significant (+3) difference from last month. (The former is numerically its highest since 2009, the latter, since 2012.) Republicans account for 24 percent of all adults and 27 percent of registered voters, about their average in recent years, with the rest independents. This accounts for little of the shift in voter preferences, however. Even using the same party divisions from last month’s ABC/Post survey, in which Trump was +2, he’d now be -8. The reason, mentioned above, is his comparatively weak performance among Republicans – 77 percent support – compared with Clinton’s support among Democrats, 90 percent.
1000 people out of 330,000,000, yeah that's statistically meaningful------------NOT>
It is but we already know you don't understand how polls work.
I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.
Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.
WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is holding his own against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll despite a very rocky two weeks.
She leads him by 5 percentage points but they are essentially tied when third-party candidates are included, the survey reported. The poll of 1,000 registered voters showed Clinton leading 46 percent to 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
Breaking News at Newsmax.com WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
Urgent: Rate Obama on His Job Performance. Vote Here Now!
WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
They are within the margin of error, taking this poll with every poll since the 19th of May shows Clinton leading. Could change, safe to say at this moment Clinton is the clear front runner.
do you understand that the margin of error is a calculation done by the pollsters?
the real margin of error in such a tiny sample is more like 50%.
I'm beginning to doubt that you went to Harvard or took a stats class.
I don't give a flying dog turd what you doubt. What I stated is true. Math is math, its absolute, there is no gray area. The pollsters are trying to change the laws of statistics, and have succeeded in fooling the ignorant like you.
When the poll has 20+ % skewed it does!
You're lying.
GROUPS – Partisanship can follow political preferences, and in this poll Democrats account for 36 percent of all adults and 37 percent of registered voters – a non-significant (+3) difference from last month. (The former is numerically its highest since 2009, the latter, since 2012.) Republicans account for 24 percent of all adults and 27 percent of registered voters, about their average in recent years, with the rest independents. This accounts for little of the shift in voter preferences, however. Even using the same party divisions from last month’s ABC/Post survey, in which Trump was +2, he’d now be -8. The reason, mentioned above, is his comparatively weak performance among Republicans – 77 percent support – compared with Clinton’s support among Democrats, 90 percent.
1000 people out of 330,000,000, yeah that's statistically meaningful------------NOT>
It is but we already know you don't understand how polls work.
I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.
Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.
There are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, the polls are not unfairly skewed, they are accurately representing the populous.
bullshit, 40% of americans self identify as conservative, 20% as liberal.
Make your case then here is the poll data:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1178a12016Election.pdf
Show us how they got it wrong.
statistics 101. the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not the report on it. If you doubt that, check into who is paying the pollsters.
"Statistics 101?"
More like "Whining ideologues who don't understand statistics 101"
Polls can't be accurate unless they poll 15 million people
What a moron
You're lying.
GROUPS – Partisanship can follow political preferences, and in this poll Democrats account for 36 percent of all adults and 37 percent of registered voters – a non-significant (+3) difference from last month. (The former is numerically its highest since 2009, the latter, since 2012.) Republicans account for 24 percent of all adults and 27 percent of registered voters, about their average in recent years, with the rest independents. This accounts for little of the shift in voter preferences, however. Even using the same party divisions from last month’s ABC/Post survey, in which Trump was +2, he’d now be -8. The reason, mentioned above, is his comparatively weak performance among Republicans – 77 percent support – compared with Clinton’s support among Democrats, 90 percent.
1000 people out of 330,000,000, yeah that's statistically meaningful------------NOT>
It is but we already know you don't understand how polls work.
I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.
Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.
We are talking about two different things here, its amazing that you libs don't understand that.
First, yes the pollsters have a very good record of being accurate
Second, the way they sample violates the basic mathematic principles of statistics.
All I am trying to get you fools to understand is that they are not accurate because of math, they are accurate because of the way they create the sample.
WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is holding his own against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll despite a very rocky two weeks.
She leads him by 5 percentage points but they are essentially tied when third-party candidates are included, the survey reported. The poll of 1,000 registered voters showed Clinton leading 46 percent to 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
Breaking News at Newsmax.com WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
Urgent: Rate Obama on His Job Performance. Vote Here Now!
WSJ/NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Essentially Tied
They are within the margin of error, taking this poll with every poll since the 19th of May shows Clinton leading. Could change, safe to say at this moment Clinton is the clear front runner.
do you understand that the margin of error is a calculation done by the pollsters?
the real margin of error in such a tiny sample is more like 50%.
I'm beginning to doubt that you went to Harvard or took a stats class.
I don't give a flying dog turd what you doubt. What I stated is true. Math is math, its absolute, there is no gray area. The pollsters are trying to change the laws of statistics, and have succeeded in fooling the ignorant like you.
Yes, and if you understand math, you know that a sample of 1000 approximates a population with a 3% error at a 95% confidence level.
You must have missed that class at <cough> Harvard.
bullshit, 40% of americans self identify as conservative, 20% as liberal.
Make your case then here is the poll data:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1178a12016Election.pdf
Show us how they got it wrong.
statistics 101. the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not the report on it. If you doubt that, check into who is paying the pollsters.
"Statistics 101?"
More like "Whining ideologues who don't understand statistics 101"
Polls can't be accurate unless they poll 15 million people
What a moron
If the sample is random, yes you need 5% for it to be accurate. The pollsters do not use a random sample, they use a carefully selected "proportionally represented" sample.
The issue is how they proportionally represent all of the demographics within the US voter base.
I apologize for creating a debate that is intellectually above most of you on USMB
1000 people out of 330,000,000, yeah that's statistically meaningful------------NOT>
It is but we already know you don't understand how polls work.
I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.
Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.
We are talking about two different things here, its amazing that you libs don't understand that.
First, yes the pollsters have a very good record of being accurate
Second, the way they sample violates the basic mathematic principles of statistics.
All I am trying to get you fools to understand is that they are not accurate because of math, they are accurate because of the way they create the sample.
^ That is the finest example of back pedaling I have ever seen.
And you still haven't demonstrated, provided evidence or otherwise attempted to prove your point, either the old one (polls bad) or your new one (polls good - method bad).
Make your case then here is the poll data:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1178a12016Election.pdf
Show us how they got it wrong.
statistics 101. the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not the report on it. If you doubt that, check into who is paying the pollsters.
"Statistics 101?"
More like "Whining ideologues who don't understand statistics 101"
Polls can't be accurate unless they poll 15 million people
What a moron
If the sample is random, yes you need 5% for it to be accurate. The pollsters do not use a random sample, they use a carefully selected "proportionally represented" sample.
The issue is how they proportionally represent all of the demographics within the US voter base.
I apologize for creating a debate that is intellectually above most of you on USMB
Your "5% rule" highlights how little you understand about statistics
You really need to ask Harvard for your money back
It is but we already know you don't understand how polls work.
I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.
Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.
We are talking about two different things here, its amazing that you libs don't understand that.
First, yes the pollsters have a very good record of being accurate
Second, the way they sample violates the basic mathematic principles of statistics.
All I am trying to get you fools to understand is that they are not accurate because of math, they are accurate because of the way they create the sample.
^ That is the finest example of back pedaling I have ever seen.
And you still haven't demonstrated, provided evidence or otherwise attempted to prove your point, either the old one (polls bad) or your new one (polls good - method bad).
pay attention fool. I never said that the polls were inaccurate. I said that they were not statistically meaningful. Again, I am sorry is you cant understand the difference.
