HRC opens a 12 point lead over Dangerous Donnie

[rightwinger]

statistics 101. the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not the report on it. If you doubt that, check into who is paying the pollsters.

"Statistics 101?"

More like "Whining ideologues who don't understand statistics 101"

Polls can't be accurate unless they poll 15 million people

What a moron

If the sample is random, yes you need 5% for it to be accurate. The pollsters do not use a random sample, they use a carefully selected "proportionally represented" sample.

The issue is how they proportionally represent all of the demographics within the US voter base.

I apologize for creating a debate that is intellectually above most of you on USMB

Your "5% rule" highlights how little you understand about statistics

You really need to ask Harvard for your money back

I am quite sure that I understand statistics much better than you ever will. My employer paid my Harvard tuition and they considered it a very good investment. I had to agree to work for them for 5 years in exchange for it and actually stayed there for 25 years and ended up with a very nice retirement check and a significant 401K balance.

Enjoy your welfare checks that I am helping pay for.

Seriously....the "facts" that you have posted on statistics are laughable....worthy of a grade school understanding of statistical sampling

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

 

[rightwinger]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

Things will get interesting if Hillary can compete in Texas

That missing 27% could swing the state

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

The latest national polling composite from Pollster.com

 

[rightwinger]

The latest national polling composite from Pollster.com

Expect it to get close after the GOP convention with Hillary going 8+% after the debates

By election day they will be reporting "too close to call"

 

[SwimExpert]

Go Hillary!!!!!

No. But as awful as she is, Trump would be worse.

On an unrelated note, I just noticed this post got the messageboard Grand Slam. Anyone ever seen that here before?

 

[Redfish]

I certainly do, much better than you do, obviously.

Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.

We are talking about two different things here, its amazing that you libs don't understand that.

First, yes the pollsters have a very good record of being accurate
Second, the way they sample violates the basic mathematic principles of statistics.

All I am trying to get you fools to understand is that they are not accurate because of math, they are accurate because of the way they create the sample.

^ That is the finest example of back pedaling I have ever seen.

And you still haven't demonstrated, provided evidence or otherwise attempted to prove your point, either the old one (polls bad) or your new one (polls good - method bad).

pay attention fool. I never said that the polls were inaccurate. I said that they were not statistically meaningful. Again, I am sorry is you cant understand the difference.

Nope, you clearly said the polls are biased, bought and paid for and only exist to sway public opinion. Now you are threading a needle and claiming they are accurate but their methods are incorrect, an arguement like that without any evidence looks 'fishy'.

because of the way they are done, they can be manipulated to get a desired result.

Again, I apologize, I made the mistake of thinking that I was discussing this with reasonably intelligent and educated people.

 

[Redfish]

"Statistics 101?"

More like "Whining ideologues who don't understand statistics 101"

Polls can't be accurate unless they poll 15 million people

What a moron

If the sample is random, yes you need 5% for it to be accurate. The pollsters do not use a random sample, they use a carefully selected "proportionally represented" sample.

The issue is how they proportionally represent all of the demographics within the US voter base.

I apologize for creating a debate that is intellectually above most of you on USMB

Your "5% rule" highlights how little you understand about statistics

You really need to ask Harvard for your money back

I am quite sure that I understand statistics much better than you ever will. My employer paid my Harvard tuition and they considered it a very good investment. I had to agree to work for them for 5 years in exchange for it and actually stayed there for 25 years and ended up with a very nice retirement check and a significant 401K balance.

Enjoy your welfare checks that I am helping pay for.

Seriously....the "facts" that you have posted on statistics are laughable....worthy of a grade school understanding of statistical sampling

spoken like the true partisan idiot that you are. move on boi.

 

[Redfish]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

Things will get interesting if Hillary can compete in Texas

That missing 27% could swing the state

just curious. Why do you want hlllary to be president? What has she done to earn your support? give us a list of her accomplishments that make you want to vote for her.

 

[Redfish]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

Things will get interesting if Hillary can compete in Texas

That missing 27% could swing the state

texas is not in play, but Pa, NY, MI, NJ, Va, and Co are. Trump will take Oh and Fl in close contests.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

Things will get interesting if Hillary can compete in Texas

That missing 27% could swing the state

just curious. Why do you want hlllary to be president? What has she done to earn your support? give us a list of her accomplishments that make you want to vote for her.

If she loses, Trump will be president.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

Things will get interesting if Hillary can compete in Texas

That missing 27% could swing the state

texas is not in play, but Pa, NY, MI, NJ, Va, and Co are. Trump will take Oh and Fl in close contests.

funny

 

[HenryBHough]

The only poll that counts will not be taken until November.

That said, the anal fixation of some in connection with this election is beginning to smell.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.

We are talking about two different things here, its amazing that you libs don't understand that.

First, yes the pollsters have a very good record of being accurate
Second, the way they sample violates the basic mathematic principles of statistics.

All I am trying to get you fools to understand is that they are not accurate because of math, they are accurate because of the way they create the sample.

^ That is the finest example of back pedaling I have ever seen.

And you still haven't demonstrated, provided evidence or otherwise attempted to prove your point, either the old one (polls bad) or your new one (polls good - method bad).

pay attention fool. I never said that the polls were inaccurate. I said that they were not statistically meaningful. Again, I am sorry is you cant understand the difference.

Nope, you clearly said the polls are biased, bought and paid for and only exist to sway public opinion. Now you are threading a needle and claiming they are accurate but their methods are incorrect, an arguement like that without any evidence looks 'fishy'.

because of the way they are done, they can be manipulated to get a desired result.

Again, I apologize, I made the mistake of thinking that I was discussing this with reasonably intelligent and educated people.

You make the mistake of thinking you're in that category.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The only poll that counts will not be taken until November.

That said, the anal fixation of some in connection with this election is beginning to smell.

The polls are worthwhile measures now because they show where the candidates are now, and how much one candidate has to somehow make up between now and the election in order to win.

 

[rightwinger]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

Things will get interesting if Hillary can compete in Texas

That missing 27% could swing the state

just curious. Why do you want hlllary to be president? What has she done to earn your support? give us a list of her accomplishments that make you want to vote for her.

Lets see......Hillary is the best qualified candidate by far
She has a better temperament to be President
She has seen White House operations up close for 12 years

As a Senator, she pushed for womens rights legislation. 9-11 relief, SCHIP

As Secretary of State she restored battered relations with our former allies and built an international coalition with Russia, China and the EU to enforce crippling sanctions on Iran

But she never ran a beauty pageant, so I guess Trump has her there

 

[rightwinger]

Clinton Trails By Just 8 Points In Texas
June 27, 2016


A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by a margin of 41% to 33% in a head-to-head trial ballot match-up in Texas, with 19% preferring someone else, and 8% saying that they don’t yet know who they would vote for.

Things will get interesting if Hillary can compete in Texas

That missing 27% could swing the state

texas is not in play, but Pa, NY, MI, NJ, Va, and Co are. Trump will take Oh and Fl in close contests.

Pure fantasy

Trump is in danger of losing former red states Arizona and Georgia with stalwarts Utah and Texas now in play

 

[HappyJoy]

Why don't you find some evidence that polling doesn't work? Instead of relying on your high school statistics class.

We are talking about two different things here, its amazing that you libs don't understand that.

First, yes the pollsters have a very good record of being accurate
Second, the way they sample violates the basic mathematic principles of statistics.

All I am trying to get you fools to understand is that they are not accurate because of math, they are accurate because of the way they create the sample.

^ That is the finest example of back pedaling I have ever seen.

And you still haven't demonstrated, provided evidence or otherwise attempted to prove your point, either the old one (polls bad) or your new one (polls good - method bad).

pay attention fool. I never said that the polls were inaccurate. I said that they were not statistically meaningful. Again, I am sorry is you cant understand the difference.

Nope, you clearly said the polls are biased, bought and paid for and only exist to sway public opinion. Now you are threading a needle and claiming they are accurate but their methods are incorrect, an arguement like that without any evidence looks 'fishy'.

because of the way they are done, they can be manipulated to get a desired result.

Again, I apologize, I made the mistake of thinking that I was discussing this with reasonably intelligent and educated people.

You have yet to demonstrate your point. You're opinion doesn't matter, point to someone who has some credentials on the subject.

I do enjoy your argument. Pollsters are correct but they do it wrong so don't believe them.

 

[EriktheRed]

Jan Brewer goes berserk on CNN: ‘I’m fed up’ with being treated like a ‘bigot’ for backing Trump
“But dang it,” she exclaimed. “I get fed up that we hear over and over and over and over again from the president of the United States that every time somebody wants to support the Constitution and the rule of law that we are out there because we are racist and bigots.”

 

[mamooth]

The pollsters do not use a random sample, they use a carefully selected "proportionally represented" sample.

No, they don't.

I'd suggest you read their sampling methodology, but I won't, as you wouldn't be able to understand it. For other people, I suggest they read the part where it says phone numbers they call are randomly generated. To help you out, that means your conspiracy theory is stupid.

ABC News' Polling Methodology and Standards