Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated.

[StatesPoll]

Well, Many media and people says ‘Vote of Hispanic gonna decide 2016 election.’

Well it could be a partially right. but it is too much exaggerated. because of these Three main factors.

1. Registered Hispanic voters share in 2016 gonna be 12% of the USA.
(Hispanic population in USA, it is 17.4%(2015). But average age of hispanic is just 29 years old. so many young minor hispanics they dont have the vote in 2016.)

2. Hispanic turn out is quite low compare to White and Black. in 2012 election it was just 48%.
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/05/09/record-hispanic-voter-turnout-in-2012-myth-census-numbers-show/

Compare to White turn out 64%(I'd predict it would be increase in 2016) and about 1,2 factors, Hispanic actual influence in whole USA.It is about 8.76% (=12% x 73%

3. More than half of the Hispanic are living in ‘Three non-swing states’Hispanic population in USA, 55millions. and 28.6 millons Hispanics are live in California,Texas,New York. Califorinia and New york are typical blue states And Texas is a typical Red states. Those 3 states total populations are 84million.

so in other 47 states in USA. Hispanic population is 26.4 million / 236 million= 11.18%. and thinking about vote shares,turn out factors. actual hispanic vote infulence in 47 states in USA. it gonna be about just 7 percents.

and Not all hispanic votes for Democrat. there are about 30 percent Hispanic vote for GOP. so in 2016 election. Democrat gonna take 2.8% advantage to against GOP from the hispanic at 47 states in USA.

(70%-30%) x 7%(actual hispanic influence in 47 states) = 2.8%.

4. Especially, among of swing states even lower influence of Hispanic.

Florida? Those Hispanics are many of them from the Cuba. so They are not lean to Democrat like other states. That’s why Donald Trump has a leadto Hillary with 49.2%(TRUMP) vs 40.5%(Hillary).
Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business

Colorado? Those Hispanics have 20% populations. and have 14% actual influence.(turnout,age,registered voter factos)But instead of that only 4.5% Black living in there.(which vote for democrat 90%+). That’s why Trump has a lead to hillary with 48%(TRUMP)vs 37%(Hillary).

Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business

Nevada and New mexico.which are just total 11 electoral votes (Nevada 6 + New mexico 5)

Else, Hispanic just has a 5% or lower influence(3~4%) on the Most swing states. (North Carolina: 9% Population, Actual vote shares influence about 5%.) with 3~5% influence Democrat party only can takes 1.2~2% advantage against to GOP.(recently on the polls Hispanic supporting ratio about Democrat/GOP is around 70 : 30 )

1.2~2% edge isn’t a nothing. But 1.2~2% edges(from the Hispanic) That decide the US presidential election? Are you serious? It is horrirbly exaggerated.

Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated.

 

[StatesPoll]

lol who the hell reported this thread to moderator lol

 

[ScienceRocks]

Yep, keep attacking non-whites and find out. You'll party is finished. Hispanics, asians and blacks make up over 1/3rds of the electorate and you call that "small"?

You won't win Nev, Florida, Virgina, etc.

 

[StatesPoll]

Yep, keep attacking non-whites and find out. You'll party is finished. Hispanics, asians and blacks make up over 1/3rds of the electorate and you call that "small"?

You won't win Nev, Florida, Virgina, etc.

It is not a attacking non-whites thread. that is your delusion. I just explain the truth!
And did I say Asians&Blacks vote shares is small? when? where?
And dont forget, On the latest polls, Hispanics support for GOP candidate around 30%, Asian support for GOP candidate around 48%ish(2014 mid term election). well Balck support for GOP is bit low around 5~10%. But I'd predict it going to be increase.

 

[Kosh]

Well, Many media and people says ‘Vote of Hispanic gonna decide 2016 election.’

Well it could be a partially right. but it is too much exaggerated. because of these Three main factors.

1. Registered Hispanic voters share in 2016 gonna be 12% of the USA.
(Hispanic population in USA, it is 17.4%(2015). But average age of hispanic is just 29 years old. so many young minor hispanics they dont have the vote in 2016.)

2. Hispanic turn out is quite low compare to White and Black. in 2012 election it was just 48%.
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/05/09/record-hispanic-voter-turnout-in-2012-myth-census-numbers-show/

Compare to White turn out 64%(I'd predict it would be increase in 2016) and about 1,2 factors, Hispanic actual influence in whole USA.It is about 8.76% (=12% x 73%

3. More than half of the Hispanic are living in ‘Three non-swing states’Hispanic population in USA, 55millions. and 28.6 millons Hispanics are live in California,Texas,New York. Califorinia and New york are typical blue states And Texas is a typical Red states. Those 3 states total populations are 84million.

so in other 47 states in USA. Hispanic population is 26.4 million / 236 million= 11.18%. and thinking about vote shares,turn out factors. actual hispanic vote infulence in 47 states in USA. it gonna be about just 7 percents.

and Not all hispanic votes for Democrat. there are about 30 percent Hispanic vote for GOP. so in 2016 election. Democrat gonna take 2.8% advantage to against GOP from the hispanic at 47 states in USA.

(70%-30%) x 7%(actual hispanic influence in 47 states) = 2.8%.

4. Especially, among of swing states even lower influence of Hispanic.

Florida? Those Hispanics are many of them from the Cuba. so They are not lean to Democrat like other states. That’s why Donald Trump has a leadto Hillary with 49.2%(TRUMP) vs 40.5%(Hillary).
Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business

Colorado? Those Hispanics have 20% populations. and have 14% actual influence.(turnout,age,registered voter factos)But instead of that only 4.5% Black living in there.(which vote for democrat 90%+). That’s why Trump has a lead to hillary with 48%(TRUMP)vs 37%(Hillary).

Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business

Nevada and New mexico.which are just total 11 electoral votes (Nevada 6 + New mexico 5)

Else, Hispanic just has a 5% or lower influence(3~4%) on the Most swing states. (North Carolina: 9% Population, Actual vote shares influence about 5%.) with 3~5% influence Democrat party only can takes 1.2~2% advantage against to GOP.(recently on the polls Hispanic supporting ratio about Democrat/GOP is around 70 : 30 )

1.2~2% edge isn’t a nothing. But 1.2~2% edges(from the Hispanic) That decide the US presidential election? Are you serious? It is horrirbly exaggerated.

Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated.

You are still unable to make an argument I see..

It does not matter how many are registered, it matters how many come out and vote and who they vote for..

Right now the far left press has done a good job of making sure that Latinos vote (D)..

Latinos are traditionally Catholic and one would expect them to vote (R) since they share a lot of the same values. I guess the promise of free stuff out weighs ones belief system..

 

[frigidweirdo]

2012 it was 71/27 Dem/Rep for Hispanics. Obama won by 126 electoral college votes
2008 it was 67/31 Dem/Rep for Hispanics. Obama won by 192 electoral college votes

So, the amount of Hispanic votes isn't going to be critical for a Republican President, but it could be the tipping point potentially.

There are so many variables. If Hispanics are against a guy, a lot of white people and black people will be against him too.

Supposedly the right hate Obama for causing divide, then find the biggest divider of all and want him to win. GOOOO FIGUREEEE.

 

[Interpol]

I don't think their influence is exaggerated at all. If they're 12% of the vote next year, that will be a 2 point increase over 2012. In 1996, Hispanics were 5% of the vote. So in 20 years, they will have more than doubled their share and are now seriously competing with the African American vote, which was 13% last time out.

George W. Bush got 35% of the Hispanic vote in 2000. Had he gotten a few points less to reflect the GOP average of the last couple decades, Florida would've certainly been Gore's and there would've been no Dubya presidency.

Before the election even begins, Democrats are poised to take 8 out of those 12% Hispanics and 12 out of the 13% of African Americans.

That means the Democrats go into election night up 20-5.

Of the 75 remaining, 5% are Asian Americans, Muslims, and other races (Whites were 72% in 2012, which was an exact drop of 15 points from the 20 year period of 1992-2012, so 70% is a fair estimate for next year). In a bad year, Democrats take 3 out of 5. In a good year, 3 and a half. Let's say it's a down year, so that's 3-2 for the Democrats.

20-5 + 3-2 = 23-7 for the Democrats

Of the 70% remaining, women are actually 35.5 of that, but let's call it a draw at 35. In a bad year, Democrats take women by 10%. In a good year, 15-20%. Again, let's call next year a down year and give the Democrats a lead of only 9% with women. That's 19-16 for the Democrats.

23-7 + 19-16 = 42-23

The 35 remaining are white men, and down 42-23, Republicans need to go no worse than 27-8 for the tie. That's 77% of the white male vote. Republicans have cracked 70 a few times, but 77% is out of reach particularly with current trends.

That means Republicans in presidential elections need to siphon votes from somewhere. They can try to pick at women, but their pro-life craze is too extreme for moderate, independent voters. And we know what they can expect from the African American vote.

That leaves Hispanics. Had George W. Bush only gotten his hard-headed party to pass the Dream Act (it was his, originally, not Obama's) the Republican party would still be the governing party in America today.

The Hispanic vote is the Republican pathway straight into the White House. Their influence could not be underlined any more clearer than that.