Is Russia losing the war ?? Lol

[SavannahMann]

A lot of things effect fighting quality of troops. Historically those fighting to defend their homes are more effective in practice, if not on paper.

In sports. It is called the Home Field Advantage. In war, it is called Morale.

Applying the timeless lessons of a long dead Chinese General. The Ukrainian troops are on Death Ground. There is no where for them to retreat to. They have to fight hard. They can’t hold anything back. These are their homes. Their families. Their friends.

I think the Russians will eventually win. They have weight of numbers and a deeper supply situation. I suspect a Partisan movement is already underway. And that will cost the Russians even more down the road.

Eventually. The Ukrainians will run out of missiles and bullets. It may end up being a Pyrrhic victory. But I think the Russians will win in the end. It will cost them more than they expected.

But Putin wont stop. He can’t. The price for giving up would be his head. Literally in Russia. His replacement would execute the madman and claim that Putin was solely responsible for all of it.

While the Russian Soldiers can go home and like all Soldiers they would prefer not to be there. Putin himself is on Death Ground. It is victory or Death for him personally. He won’t quit. He won’t call the troops back.

And if it looks like Putin is losing. Expect him to use the Nukes. People like that would rather burn it all down than let someone else have it.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

A lot of things effect fighting quality of troops. Historically those fighting to defend their homes are more effective in practice, if not on paper.

In sports. It is called the Home Field Advantage. In war, it is called Morale.

Applying the timeless lessons of a long dead Chinese General. The Ukrainian troops are on Death Ground. There is no where for them to retreat to. They have to fight hard. They can’t hold anything back. These are their homes. Their families. Their friends.

I think the Russians will eventually win. They have weight of numbers and a deeper supply situation. I suspect a Partisan movement is already underway. And that will cost the Russians even more down the road.

Eventually. The Ukrainians will run out of missiles and bullets. It may end up being a Pyrrhic victory. But I think the Russians will win in the end. It will cost them more than they expected.

But Putin wont stop. He can’t. The price for giving up would be his head. Literally in Russia. His replacement would execute the madman and claim that Putin was solely responsible for all of it.

While the Russian Soldiers can go home and like all Soldiers they would prefer not to be there. Putin himself is on Death Ground. It is victory or Death for him personally. He won’t quit. He won’t call the troops back.

And if it looks like Putin is losing. Expect him to use the Nukes. People like that would rather burn it all down than let someone else have it.

One hopes that within the Russian hierarchy, Putin doesn't have the ability to use nukes. Meaning, he would be assassinated or imprisoned first. That folks in the ranks would reject such madness.
However, that doesn't mean he can't use "city block destroying missles" to level resistance.
Such as this.... -> Putin's terrifying rockets that 'explode' enemy's lungs 'heading to Ukraine'

This is the TOS-1 Buratino rocket launcher. Bad ass. Mega bad ass. A couple of these could level a small city in a few hours.

 

[SavannahMann]

One hopes that within the Russian hierarchy, Putin doesn't have the ability to use nukes. Meaning, he would be assassinated or imprisoned first. That folks in the ranks would reject such madness.
However, that doesn't mean he can't use "city block destroying missles" to level resistance.
Such as this.... -> Putin's terrifying rockets that 'explode' enemy's lungs 'heading to Ukraine'

This is the TOS-1 Buratino rocket launcher. Bad ass. Mega bad ass. A couple of these could level a small city in a few hours.

Much has been made of the Two Man Rule for the United States. It takes someone to confirm the order of the President unless responding to an attack. In other words, someone confirmed by Congress, normally the Secretary of Defense, has to confirm the order. This insures that the person giving the order, is authorized by law.

But there is nothing in there that requires that the person confirming the order, agree with it, or believe it is legal. Once the President gives the order, and the Sec Def confirms that the President is in fact the person giving the order, the question is done. The missiles are launching.

Even if you assume that Russia has a similar system, and it seems logical to assume they do. That system merely confirms that the person in charge is the one who is giving the order.

Several news reports are out today that Putin has ordered “tactical” nukes to the region, in preparation for their use. These are small kiloton sized weapons, but they are a lie.

Not their existence, or their deployment to the area. I believe both of those are true. The lie is the idea of “tactical” versus “Strategic”. When a Satellite sees the flash of the Nuke’s detonation, world governments go into automatic responses. Everyone’s nukes are brought to full readiness. Missiles stored unfueled, are filled with the fuels they need to fly. Warnings are sent out to various commands.

This happens all over the world, fingers move a little closer to buttons.

Notorious hot spots like Pakistan/India, that is really dangerous. And they’ll know soon that the world is teetering on the edge. Any mistake then, any misunderstood action, and the world could see missiles flying.

The problem is that the Nukes become Use them or Lose them weapons. If you think the enemy is about to attack, you have to launch or lose the ability to strike at the enemy.

It is like the Sniper focusing in on the man holding the woman hostage. If he acts, he may cause her death. If he doesn’t act, he may lose the opportunity to save her. Eventually he will be told to pull the trigger. Yes, the hostage may die, but action is preferred by humanity to inaction. Doing something and failing is better than doing nothing, and failing anyway.

Germany has some Nukes from us. If they detect one being detonated not far away, what will they do? Ukraine says they gave up their nukes, it was one of the first things they did when the Iron Curtain fell. I would personally suspect they kept one or two for a rainy day.

If Putin has indeed forward deployed “tactical” nuclear weapons, then use of those weapons was conditional to the commanders. They could use them if this or that happened, or they were authorized by higher command.

If the Ukrainian troops appear to be winning a battle against the Russians, and perhaps turning the tide, want to bet that the Commander who is losing won’t launch one to try and turn the battle in his favor? Are you willing to bet your life?

As I am typing this, a news blip just came over the iPad. Putin has raised the alert level of his Nuclear Forces to Special Combat Duty. Figure DEFCON 3 from what I understand, which is probably wrong. Maybe DEFCON 2.

So what do we do? Do we sink their Ballistic Missile Submarines, thus taking many warheads out of play? Or do we hope he isn’t that crazy, or that someone there will stop him? Sinking the subs will insure the others are fired at us.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Much has been made of the Two Man Rule for the United States. It takes someone to confirm the order of the President unless responding to an attack. In other words, someone confirmed by Congress, normally the Secretary of Defense, has to confirm the order. This insures that the person giving the order, is authorized by law.

But there is nothing in there that requires that the person confirming the order, agree with it, or believe it is legal. Once the President gives the order, and the Sec Def confirms that the President is in fact the person giving the order, the question is done. The missiles are launching.

Even if you assume that Russia has a similar system, and it seems logical to assume they do. That system merely confirms that the person in charge is the one who is giving the order.

Several news reports are out today that Putin has ordered “tactical” nukes to the region, in preparation for their use. These are small kiloton sized weapons, but they are a lie.

Not their existence, or their deployment to the area. I believe both of those are true. The lie is the idea of “tactical” versus “Strategic”. When a Satellite sees the flash of the Nuke’s detonation, world governments go into automatic responses. Everyone’s nukes are brought to full readiness. Missiles stored unfueled, are filled with the fuels they need to fly. Warnings are sent out to various commands.

This happens all over the world, fingers move a little closer to buttons.

Notorious hot spots like Pakistan/India, that is really dangerous. And they’ll know soon that the world is teetering on the edge. Any mistake then, any misunderstood action, and the world could see missiles flying.

The problem is that the Nukes become Use them or Lose them weapons. If you think the enemy is about to attack, you have to launch or lose the ability to strike at the enemy.

It is like the Sniper focusing in on the man holding the woman hostage. If he acts, he may cause her death. If he doesn’t act, he may lose the opportunity to save her. Eventually he will be told to pull the trigger. Yes, the hostage may die, but action is preferred by humanity to inaction. Doing something and failing is better than doing nothing, and failing anyway.

Germany has some Nukes from us. If they detect one being detonated not far away, what will they do? Ukraine says they gave up their nukes, it was one of the first things they did when the Iron Curtain fell. I would personally suspect they kept one or two for a rainy day.

If Putin has indeed forward deployed “tactical” nuclear weapons, then use of those weapons was conditional to the commanders. They could use them if this or that happened, or they were authorized by higher command.

If the Ukrainian troops appear to be winning a battle against the Russians, and perhaps turning the tide, want to bet that the Commander who is losing won’t launch one to try and turn the battle in his favor? Are you willing to bet your life?

As I am typing this, a news blip just came over the iPad. Putin has raised the alert level of his Nuclear Forces to Special Combat Duty. Figure DEFCON 3 from what I understand, which is probably wrong. Maybe DEFCON 2.

So what do we do? Do we sink their Ballistic Missile Submarines, thus taking many warheads out of play? Or do we hope he isn’t that crazy, or that someone there will stop him? Sinking the subs will insure the others are fired at us.

What one can hope is that within the Russian hierarchy, there are clearer thinking heads.
Only an absolute madman will even think of launching even a tactical nuke. The response to that is immeasurably dangerous. And again, I have absolutely ZERO faith there is anyone in the Biden administration who has the will, intelligence and cunningness to deal with such a situation. I absolutely believe it would be a circle of people sitting and looking at each other hoping someone capable takes charge.
America has not been this weak since before WW II. In all aspects. Patriotism among our youth has neve been this low, American resolve is staggeringly weak and low. And Putin Goddamn well knows it. I read today that, like it or not, the 4 years of Trump was the only 4 year period Russia made no significant aggressions in 25 years. He correctly sensed weakness during Obama, and made three incursions and invasions. And here we are again.

 

[SavannahMann]

What one can hope is that within the Russian hierarchy, there are clearer thinking heads.
Only an absolute madman will even think of launching even a tactical nuke. The response to that is immeasurably dangerous. And again, I have absolutely ZERO faith there is anyone in the Biden administration who has the will, intelligence and cunningness to deal with such a situation. I absolutely believe it would be a circle of people sitting and looking at each other hoping someone capable takes charge.
America has not been this weak since before WW II. In all aspects. Patriotism among our youth has neve been this low, American resolve is staggeringly weak and low. And Putin Goddamn well knows it. I read today that, like it or not, the 4 years of Trump was the only 4 year period Russia made no significant aggressions in 25 years. He correctly sensed weakness during Obama, and made three incursions and invasions. And here we are again.

First. Nonsense. While Trump was President the Russian Intelligence Trawler off of Georgia was moving just a hair outside the international limit. Trying and probably tracking the Ballistic Missile Submarines.

Russian spy ship returns off U.S. coast, near sub base

Intelligence trawler spotted just 20 miles from Navy submarine base in Georgia, and heading north

www.cbsnews.com

We had Bombers testing our air defenses. We had Russia moving weapons into the Eastern Ukrainian regions. We had Russia selling advanced missiles to Turkey which is how they got dropped from the F-35 program. Syria. Shall I continue?

What did Trump do? He opposed Sanctions for Russia.

Trump Says the Russia Sanctions Bill Is Unconstitutional. He’s Mostly Right.

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Act, passed by the House and Senate last week with the aim...

slate.com

So the idea that Putin was as passive as a sleeping Kitten while Trump was President is patently false.

Next. Why now? Well Trump was minimizing the American actions in NATO. And that meant NATO was getting weaker. So waiting made sense while the enemy was weakening themselves.

Europe Needs to Push Back Against Trump

Disastrous and erratic policies demand a stronger response.

foreignpolicy.com

Why now? NATO was never going to be weaker. And the risk that Ukraine might become a full member of the EU and NATO was too great. Putin had to move before that happened. To isolate his enemies.

How important is that? It was his threat to the world. He would launch the nukes if anyone came to Ukraine’s aide.

Even now. Trump can’t help praising Putin. Personally I am glad he isn’t the President. Or US Forces would be in Ukraine laying the Red Carpet before the invaders.

If I was wishing for anyone to be President. It would be Reagan. Reagan would be shipping Arms to the Ukrainians and would have been since he was inaugurated.

 

[Mac1958]

YO VLAD

 

[Mac1958]

 

[Mac1958]

 

[iamwhatiseem]

One can only have a glimpse of hope that the EU will follow through more than just a token amount, for a token period of time. Which honestly, is all I expect from them.
I hope I am wrong.

 

[Mac1958]

Belgium! Who knew they had guns!

 

[SavannahMann]

Belgium! Who knew they had guns!

Belgium is the home of Febrique National. The company better known as FN. They make a lot of guns. Most Militaries have, or have had FN designs at some point. Including ours.

 

[Sonc]

Ha Russia was expecting any easy 3 day victory but they are stuck in the mud
Ha

Where does this information about 3 days come from?

 

[EvilCat Breath]

There isn't enough truth leaking out of this conflict to figure out what was happening.

 

[Sonc]

There isn't enough truth leaking out of this conflict to figure out what was happening.

I think there were several scenarios in the Russian command.
But I didn't hear any of the Russian military experts talking about 3 days.

 

[Mac1958]

 

[JGalt]

BREAKING NEWS (CNN): In Astonishing Autocratic Crackdown, Russian Police Have Now Taken *6,000* Russians into State Custody—in Just 72 Hours—for Protesting Putin’s War-Crime Invasion of Europe

Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) February 27, 2022

 

[whitehall]

I'm sure nobody on the forum is a fan of Russia but most would probably agree that "LOL" is inappropriate at this time. The U.S. spent almost ten years in Vietnam, Russians are in Ukraine for less than a week.

 

[JGalt]

 

[XponentialChaos]

I really hope these reports are true. Much of the world is united in rooting for Ukraine.

Putin had to know there would be a huge backlash against Russia for doing this. Maybe he didn’t realize it would be this much? Maybe he over-estimated his military? What a colossal disaster this will be for him if he makes himself look like a global jackass and can’t even take over Ukraine’s capital.

 

[JGalt]