Is this stock market crazy or what? DOW up 224 today.

[frigidweirdo]

The DOW is blowing through 1000 point thresholds every couple of weeks. Is this due to FOMO money (fear of missing out) that's finally coming off of the sidelines or is it foreign investors piling into the US market? Whatever it is, Mikey likes it!

The higher it goes, the harder it falls.

That is true but consider that at this point the the DOW could fall 30% and you would essentially be flat for the last year, not exactly blood in the streets.

The problem is that it doesn't work like that.

Then things fall, people panic, they start selling, then it falls again, and again and again. That's how recessions start. People don't have confidence in the markets.

Steady growth will lead to steady falls, higher growth leads to higher falls.

Let's look at the pre-2008 recession

April 2007 saw 5.74% growth, May 4.32%, then it dropped for two months, then picked up a little with September seeing 4.03% growth. By this time it was at 13,895 with a high of 13,924. October saw less growth but it hitting 14,000.

Bang!

It then dropped 4.01% in November, 4.63% in January, 10.19% in June 2008. 14.06% in October 2008.

Before April 2007 the highest monthly increase had been 3.99% in November 2004. There were bounces up and bounces down, sometimes getting into the 3%s sometimes losing 3%s.

2004 saw the height of unemployment under Bush's terms in office. December 2003 saw 6.86% rise on the Dow.

April 2003 saw a rise of 6.11%

Whenever the rises started getting that high, something was happening that would lead to greater unemployment.

How long does the Dow have to rise before it falls? February 2003 it went from 7,891 to 13,930 in October 2007. So in the space of 4 years the Dow increased nearly double and this was too much. The Dow has doubled since 2013, in 5 years.

Will the same thing happen again?

It's hard to tell. it's a different time, we're on the back of a deep recession, people have confidence at the moment. There were other factors in place, like risky borrowing. 7 million people lost their homes in the last recession. I doubt there's been enough confidence for people to make enough risky deals for it to go really bad at the moment.

But the higher the economy goes, the more risks people will take to capitalize on this rise. Then when the shit hits the fan, they go with it.

 

[Carl in Michigan]

The DOW is blowing through 1000 point thresholds every couple of weeks. Is this due to FOMO money (fear of missing out) that's finally coming off of the sidelines or is it foreign investors piling into the US market? Whatever it is, Mikey likes it!

Whatever it is?

Of course it's the 8 years Obama spent turning around the Bush Recession!

 

[Carl in Michigan]

The higher it goes, the harder it falls.

Yet another reason to keep the Dems out of power.

 

[frigidweirdo]

The higher it goes, the harder it falls.

Yet another reason to keep the Dems out of power.

The reality is that recessions seem to happen when Republicans are in the White House.

Only one post war Republican president has seen unemployment lower on the day they left off than the day they came in. That was Reagan. The economy then went bad for his successor.

Only one post war Democrat president has seen unemployment not as high when he left office as when he came in, Carter and that was at the same level.

Go figure.

 

[Circe]

We can go back to the low point in the last recession which was in June 2009 at 8,447 for the monthly average.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical Rates - Investing.com UK

Now it's at 26,000

What does this tell us? Well, still not much other than the economy is doing much better.

No, the gained didn't all happen since Trump got elected. It's been steady growth. Trump is pushing the economy.

All the commentators in the financial press I read say that the recovery from the Great Recession underperformed for years (that was the fault of Obama, of course, with his hatred of white business and his redistributionist instincts) and we know and can see by any graph, that all indices took a much steeper rise starting the Wednesday after Election Day, and has never stopped rising since.

It does go to show how important to the whole world economy it is to have a business-friendly American president. It will be hard for Dems to win elections with this record of rapid economic expansion to the credit of the GOP. And a lame, gradual recovery after a bad recession owing to the Democrats. People would be silly to vote for a bad economy after seeing what Trump has done for us.

 

[Circe]

The problem is that it doesn't work like that.

Then things fall, people panic, they start selling, then it falls again, and again and again. That's how recessions start. People don't have confidence in the markets.

Steady growth will lead to steady falls, higher growth leads to higher falls.

Let's look at the pre-2008 recession

April 2007 saw 5.74% growth, May 4.32%, then it dropped for two months, then picked up a little with September seeing 4.03% growth. By this time it was at 13,895 with a high of 13,924. October saw less growth but it hitting 14,000.

Bang!

It then dropped 4.01% in November, 4.63% in January, 10.19% in June 2008. 14.06% in October 2008.

Before April 2007 the highest monthly increase had been 3.99% in November 2004. There were bounces up and bounces down, sometimes getting into the 3%s sometimes losing 3%s.

2004 saw the height of unemployment under Bush's terms in office. December 2003 saw 6.86% rise on the Dow.

April 2003 saw a rise of 6.11%

Whenever the rises started getting that high, something was happening that would lead to greater unemployment.

How long does the Dow have to rise before it falls? February 2003 it went from 7,891 to 13,930 in October 2007. So in the space of 4 years the Dow increased nearly double and this was too much. The Dow has doubled since 2013, in 5 years.

Will the same thing happen again?

It's hard to tell. it's a different time, we're on the back of a deep recession, people have confidence at the moment. There were other factors in place, like risky borrowing. 7 million people lost their homes in the last recession. I doubt there's been enough confidence for people to make enough risky deals for it to go really bad at the moment.

But the higher the economy goes, the more risks people will take to capitalize on this rise. Then when the shit hits the fan, they go with it.

I think I see the problem here. You naysayers aren't in this market, are you? Those of who are, like the thread parent, are ecstatic. We're packing it in ----- well, in a modest and sensible way, considering valuations and dividends, of course. But I can tell you, anybody who is in is feeling no pain, and inclined to suspect we're the smartest investors around --- as everyone feels during a bull market.

If this goes on awhile, there are going to be a lot of happy investors and a lot of glum people who never got into the race at all.

 

[frigidweirdo]

We can go back to the low point in the last recession which was in June 2009 at 8,447 for the monthly average.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical Rates - Investing.com UK

Now it's at 26,000

What does this tell us? Well, still not much other than the economy is doing much better.

No, the gained didn't all happen since Trump got elected. It's been steady growth. Trump is pushing the economy.

All the commentators in the financial press I read say that the recovery from the Great Recession underperformed for years (that was the fault of Obama, of course, with his hatred of white business and his redistributionist instincts) and we know and can see by any graph, that all indices took a much steeper rise starting the Wednesday after Election Day, and has never stopped rising since.

It does go to show how important to the whole world economy it is to have a business-friendly American president. It will be hard for Dems to win elections with this record of rapid economic expansion to the credit of the GOP. And a lame, gradual recovery after a bad recession owing to the Democrats. People would be silly to vote for a bad economy after seeing what Trump has done for us.

Er... you've shown nothing to back yourself up.

The Chinese are slowing their economic growth down. Why? Because they don't want recession.

Trump only has to look good in 3 years time. What difference does it make to him if there's a recession in 5 or 10 years time? He won't be the unemployed one who loses his home.

 

[frigidweirdo]

The problem is that it doesn't work like that.

Then things fall, people panic, they start selling, then it falls again, and again and again. That's how recessions start. People don't have confidence in the markets.

Steady growth will lead to steady falls, higher growth leads to higher falls.

Let's look at the pre-2008 recession

April 2007 saw 5.74% growth, May 4.32%, then it dropped for two months, then picked up a little with September seeing 4.03% growth. By this time it was at 13,895 with a high of 13,924. October saw less growth but it hitting 14,000.

Bang!

It then dropped 4.01% in November, 4.63% in January, 10.19% in June 2008. 14.06% in October 2008.

Before April 2007 the highest monthly increase had been 3.99% in November 2004. There were bounces up and bounces down, sometimes getting into the 3%s sometimes losing 3%s.

2004 saw the height of unemployment under Bush's terms in office. December 2003 saw 6.86% rise on the Dow.

April 2003 saw a rise of 6.11%

Whenever the rises started getting that high, something was happening that would lead to greater unemployment.

How long does the Dow have to rise before it falls? February 2003 it went from 7,891 to 13,930 in October 2007. So in the space of 4 years the Dow increased nearly double and this was too much. The Dow has doubled since 2013, in 5 years.

Will the same thing happen again?

It's hard to tell. it's a different time, we're on the back of a deep recession, people have confidence at the moment. There were other factors in place, like risky borrowing. 7 million people lost their homes in the last recession. I doubt there's been enough confidence for people to make enough risky deals for it to go really bad at the moment.

But the higher the economy goes, the more risks people will take to capitalize on this rise. Then when the shit hits the fan, they go with it.

I think I see the problem here. You naysayers aren't in this market, are you? Those of who are, like the thread parent, are ecstatic. We're packing it in ----- well, in a modest and sensible way, considering valuations and dividends, of course. But I can tell you, anybody who is in is feeling no pain, and inclined to suspect we're the smartest investors around --- as everyone feels during a bull market.

If this goes on awhile, there are going to be a lot of happy investors and a lot of glum people who never got into the race at all.

Do you know what happened the last time people were packing it and not giving a damn, not looking long term?

7 million lost their homes.
Millions lost their jobs.

Boom and Bust. Who got rich out of that?

Oh look who is getting all the money.

 

[Circe]

Er... you've shown nothing to back yourself up.

The Chinese are slowing their economic growth down. Why? Because they don't want recession.

Trump only has to look good in 3 years time. What difference does it make to him if there's a recession in 5 or 10 years time? He won't be the unemployed one who loses his home.

Absolutely. You should totally stay out of this market, FW. Don't trust it, don't put any money in it. Keep your 401(k), if you have one, exhausted in a cash IRA so no one will invest it in this awful, awful market that is sure to collapse any moment. Also always vote Dem or communist, and that way you'll always be just as rich and happy as you are right now.

 

[MarathonMike]

So, is everybody in? We're still quite a few thousand in cash because this is a high, and yeah, there will surely be some sort of dip, a buying opportunity. But we're also well in because, darn, it just keeps going up, up, up! What did Trump say today? "America is open for business." This guy could be a hard act to follow, with respect to prosperity.

We are not all in but we have the highest percentage in stocks we have ever had around 55% the rest in cash and real estate.

 

[Carl in Michigan]

Shirly, it will continue to rise forever!

Only until a lefty is elected president. And stop calling me Shirley.

 

[Circe]

So, is everybody in? We're still quite a few thousand in cash because this is a high, and yeah, there will surely be some sort of dip, a buying opportunity. But we're also well in because, darn, it just keeps going up, up, up! What did Trump say today? "America is open for business." This guy could be a hard act to follow, with respect to prosperity.

We are not all in but we have the highest percentage in stocks we have ever had around 55% the rest in cash and real estate.

55%? I'll tell Himself about your percentage. I think we're around that ourselves. The rest in bonds and cash. We don't count real estate, as we live here.

 

[Mac1958]

We need a correction to shake out some dumb money, but things are looking very, very good globally.

Shocks can happen, the unexpected can happen, but this is a nice ride right now.

 

[ShootSpeeders]

Well, the Dow was 900 during the Depression, and now today it's 26,616 ---- so something good must have happened since the 1930s. I mean, that gain didn't all happen since the day after Election Day when Trump was elected:

It just feels that way.

The DOW never saw 900 during the Depression of the 30s. Not even close, you fool. It didn't hit 900 till around 1960. You probably saw an inflation-adjusted chart and didn't realize it.

 

[ShootSpeeders]

We need a correction to shake out some dumb money, but things are looking very, very good globally.

.

Things look awful globally. Stock markets are doing well because central banks are propping them up.. This will end badly.

 

[Mac1958]

We need a correction to shake out some dumb money, but things are looking very, very good globally.

Things look awful globally. Stock markets are doing well because central banks are propping them up.. This will end badly.

Precisely what was said about our QE. Worked out quite well.
.

 

[peach174]

We need a correction to shake out some dumb money, but things are looking very, very good globally.

.

Things look awful globally. Stock markets are doing well because central banks are propping them up.. This will end badly.

It's the peoples money that is in the bank.
It's people in the stock market buying and selling as well as companies .
We have a thing called a circuit breaker which prevents stock from crashing.
Unlike the way it was in the late twenties ,where the ticket tape machines that couldn't keep up with the transactions caused it to crash.

 

[airplanemechanic]

Will the market fall again? Of course. It would be stupid to say it wouldn't. But the market has ALWAYS gone up and down, that's what it does. The reason behind the up can help determine the amount of the down.

Clinton's dot-com bubble helped really crash the market because it was a bubble based on nothing. Tech stocks were taking off but with nothing behind them. Like a train without an engine rolling down hill. Sure it'll go for a while but the first time it needs to go up hill it's going to stop quickly because it has no power behind it.

Bush's housing market hit hard because the housing market is the backbone of the economy. It was artificially propped up with cheap interest rates, etc.

Obama's market did very little, it was the slowest recovery on record, because he stood in the way with regulations, etc. Had he simply let the market do its thing, he could have presided over one of the strongest recoveries in the history of the nation. But he didn't, he had no idea how to run a country or build an economy. He was handed an economy that could really go nowhere but up because it was so bad, and he still managed to keep it down. He could have been the tugboat of the economy, but instead, he was the anchor.

With Trump, the housing market is strong, the jobs rate is strong, growth is strong. All the leading indicators indicate this is not a "false" positive. So while I can't predict the future or I'd be a billionaire, I'll say that the fall, pending some catastrophic world event, shouldn't be that bad. I think consumer confidence is high because the boat anchor is gone, Trump really does want the country to improve, and is deregulating us into prosperity. He also lowered taxes, even on the evil rich, who happen to be the same ones who employ the un-evil poor. And funny how many companies are giving that money right back to their employees in bonuses, wage increases, etc. The left didn't see that coming, so Nancy Pelosi is left saying that 2000 dollar bonuses are "crumbs" while she said that "40 dollars per paycheck is a "real" increase" in pay back under Obama.

When no other countries follow these regulation on the environment, it puts us at a disadvantage. It's like telling a football player on the field that he can only catch the ball with his left hand, everyone else can use both hands. It puts him at a disadvantage every time he steps on the field. The rules should be the same for everyone for an even playing field. It's only fair.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It's going up too quickly

 

[airplanemechanic]

It's going up too quickly

Define "too quickly." Where is the threshold?

That just shows you how much Obama was holding it back. Had he actually done things to stimulate the economy rather than spend his presidency defending the likes of Trayvon Martin and trying to get men in dresses into womens restrooms, his legacy would be quite different.

It would have also guaranteed Clinton a walk into the White House. The left has nobody to blame but themselves for Trump. Obama was so bad it didn't matter who the right ran as their candidate, Clinton wasn't getting in.