Statistikhengst
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114th United States Congress - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
Officially, the 114th Congress of our United States meets from January 3, 2015 to January 3, 2015, but the first work day for our new Congress is on Tuesday, January 6th. On that day, member of Congress will take the oath of office and the work should begin.
We know that the House of Representatives remains unchanged, with a Republican majority, and presumably, John Boehner (R-OH) as Speaker of the House of Representatives and therefore 3rd in line of succession to the Presidency. In the 112th congress (2011-2013), it was R 242 / D 193. In the 113th Congress (2013-2015), it was R 234 / D 201. And now, in the 114th congress, at current, it is R 246 / D 188 / V 1 (V = vacancy).
We know that control of the US Senate will change hands, from the Democrats to the Republicans.
The Republicans now have 54 seats, the Democrats have 44 seats, and two very different kinds of Independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus King - both from New England), who have caucused with the Democrats and will presumably continue to do so, have 2 seats. Wait and see. At least for now, in terms of caucus power, that means R 54 / "D" 46. The presumption is that Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will become the Majority Leader of the US Senate. He was majority Whip from 2001-2003.
This in turn means that we go from a D+9 margin in the 113th congress (Senate) to an R+9 margin in the 114th Congress (Senate), an +18% shift toward the GOP in the Senate. This is the same 18% shift that the GOP enjoyed after the 1994 mid-term elections. The GOP majority of 54 Senators is it's second highest percentage of the Senate since 1997 (the GOP actually GAINED seats in the Senate in the same year that Bill Clinton was re-elected. Does that ring a bell?), where the GOP had 55 seats in 1997-2001, again from 2005-2007. 54 is the same number of Senators as in the 98th Congress, under Reagan, from 1983-1985. 18% is the largest shift for the GOP since 1929. But all of these statistics pale in comparison to 1958, where the DEMS shifted 29 seats in the US Senate, a 29.6% shift.
What I find impressive every two years, and twice in presidential cycles, is the peaceful transition of power. This is what sets civilized nations like our Union apart from other political systems.
Whether or not you like the results of the 2014 mid-terms, the electorate that went out to vote has spoken and now it is time for our Congress to get down to work. This is what they are paid for. And elections indeed do have consequences. So, let's look at the consequences:
1.) assuming that the Filibuster (Cloture) rule stays as is, then the Republicans will not have a filibuster-proof Senate, just as the Democrats did not have a filibuster-proof senate. What that means in terms of how the Republican Senate Majority leader breaks down legislation or tries to pass with a simple majority vote under reconciliation, remains to be seen.
2.) The Senate is likely to pass a certain amount of legislation that our President could very well veto.
To get some perspective on how these data points fit into our history, I recommend this link from January 14th, 2014, almost one year ago:
Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms 1855-present US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
And here a direct link to the raw data itself:
us congresses since 1855
(as html)
My congratulations to all members of the 114th Congress.
I suspect that the next two years are going to be very interesting.
PS: I put this in "politics" because the new congress will play a great role in politics overall in the next two years, including the 2016 campaign, which for all intents and purposes will also start in 2015...
Officially, the 114th Congress of our United States meets from January 3, 2015 to January 3, 2015, but the first work day for our new Congress is on Tuesday, January 6th. On that day, member of Congress will take the oath of office and the work should begin.
We know that the House of Representatives remains unchanged, with a Republican majority, and presumably, John Boehner (R-OH) as Speaker of the House of Representatives and therefore 3rd in line of succession to the Presidency. In the 112th congress (2011-2013), it was R 242 / D 193. In the 113th Congress (2013-2015), it was R 234 / D 201. And now, in the 114th congress, at current, it is R 246 / D 188 / V 1 (V = vacancy).
We know that control of the US Senate will change hands, from the Democrats to the Republicans.
The Republicans now have 54 seats, the Democrats have 44 seats, and two very different kinds of Independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus King - both from New England), who have caucused with the Democrats and will presumably continue to do so, have 2 seats. Wait and see. At least for now, in terms of caucus power, that means R 54 / "D" 46. The presumption is that Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will become the Majority Leader of the US Senate. He was majority Whip from 2001-2003.
This in turn means that we go from a D+9 margin in the 113th congress (Senate) to an R+9 margin in the 114th Congress (Senate), an +18% shift toward the GOP in the Senate. This is the same 18% shift that the GOP enjoyed after the 1994 mid-term elections. The GOP majority of 54 Senators is it's second highest percentage of the Senate since 1997 (the GOP actually GAINED seats in the Senate in the same year that Bill Clinton was re-elected. Does that ring a bell?), where the GOP had 55 seats in 1997-2001, again from 2005-2007. 54 is the same number of Senators as in the 98th Congress, under Reagan, from 1983-1985. 18% is the largest shift for the GOP since 1929. But all of these statistics pale in comparison to 1958, where the DEMS shifted 29 seats in the US Senate, a 29.6% shift.
What I find impressive every two years, and twice in presidential cycles, is the peaceful transition of power. This is what sets civilized nations like our Union apart from other political systems.
Whether or not you like the results of the 2014 mid-terms, the electorate that went out to vote has spoken and now it is time for our Congress to get down to work. This is what they are paid for. And elections indeed do have consequences. So, let's look at the consequences:
1.) assuming that the Filibuster (Cloture) rule stays as is, then the Republicans will not have a filibuster-proof Senate, just as the Democrats did not have a filibuster-proof senate. What that means in terms of how the Republican Senate Majority leader breaks down legislation or tries to pass with a simple majority vote under reconciliation, remains to be seen.
2.) The Senate is likely to pass a certain amount of legislation that our President could very well veto.
To get some perspective on how these data points fit into our history, I recommend this link from January 14th, 2014, almost one year ago:
Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms 1855-present US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
And here a direct link to the raw data itself:
us congresses since 1855
(as html)
My congratulations to all members of the 114th Congress.
I suspect that the next two years are going to be very interesting.
PS: I put this in "politics" because the new congress will play a great role in politics overall in the next two years, including the 2016 campaign, which for all intents and purposes will also start in 2015...
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