flacaltenn
Diamond Member
Let me point out that your backups run little. Significantly less fuel is consumed. That is the point.
That might be true some of time.. But in reality no grid system operator is gonna request the Nat Gas plant shutdown immediately to take a flaky 20 minute wind spike. They're going to idle, waste fuel and dump the electricity to ground. Can't even get on phone and try to sell it.. So the average wind is (at best) 35% of rated Maximum and if you filter out all the 30 minute and less power spikes -- the average is down to below 25%. Point is -- no engineering will EVER approve EXPANDING grid generation capacity or their safe operating margins on the back of wind and solar.
There's actually a reason for all those state mandated "20% renewables by 2020" edicts. It comes from the fact that mid-summer nighttime loads at 10PM are about 80% of the daytime peak demand. Thus you could (most days) put 20% of solar in and not have to expand your primary fossil/nuclear/hydro generation.. Solar is a PEAKER technology. And once you push past 20% of wind/solar -- you are treading on dangerous ground and NEED massive investments in grid scale storage and filtering.