Official USMB Mafia Game #4: Friends and Enemies

[Shaitra]

Either way it goes, it has definitely been some strange play.

 

[Avatar4321]

I waited the whole Day to make this vote:

vote: Avatar

Not entirely true. You did vote for me earlier

 

[AyeCantSeeYou]

VOTE: Avatar

I do not want us going for a NL.

Mertex, I did not vote for you because of the way you respond to posts, although that does bring attention to you. I voted for you because of the bickering between you and Avi Day 1. Avi came back Day 2 posting like he had been Day 1, but started on others (me included). You were silent, as though it was planned out, unless someone mentioned/questioned you, which you would then say that person is scummy or suspicious. It's a pattern I noticed. People can question me or say I'm acting suspicious, and I'm not going to accuse them of the same unless I believe they are. That's how we keep dividing town in these games - attacking the ones that are playing. Anyone else notice this? It can't be just me.

 

[Avatar4321]

And one more thing. Avatar was defending TN at the start of the game stating it was highly impossible TN rolled scum twice in a row for this game- due to mathematical improbability, that is how the whole thing started between Mertex and Avatar IIRC -Avatar defending TN and our suspicion for TN.

I see a lot of questionable things coming from Grandma too. Some of her posts have seemed off, way off and I have many suspicions about her.

With that said, wouldn't the same set of mathematical improbability Avatar spoke of apply to Grandma -which Avatar was touting for TN rolling scum twice in a row for this game?

This is my reservations about Grandma rolling scum twice- before and after reset.

The only thing I can come to, is she did roll scum twice in a row or she accidently outed she was scum when the hubbub started about the reset- when she said " I had scummy things planned". But why do that? IDK


Avatar, what are your thoughts on this? You seemed to defend TN rolling scum twice but it's possible for Grandma?

The odds for grandma and TN are significantly different. TN was scum in every game he has played in till now. Grandma has not. Her rerolling is much more likely than him.

 

[AyeCantSeeYou]

And one more thing. Avatar was defending TN at the start of the game stating it was highly impossible TN rolled scum twice in a row for this game- due to mathematical improbability, that is how the whole thing started between Mertex and Avatar IIRC -Avatar defending TN and our suspicion for TN.

I see a lot of questionable things coming from Grandma too. Some of her posts have seemed off, way off and I have many suspicions about her.

With that said, wouldn't the same set of mathematical improbability Avatar spoke of apply to Grandma -which Avatar was touting for TN rolling scum twice in a row for this game?

This is my reservations about Grandma rolling scum twice- before and after reset.

The only thing I can come to, is she did roll scum twice in a row or she accidently outed she was scum when the hubbub started about the reset- when she said " I had scummy things planned". But why do that? IDK


Avatar, what are your thoughts on this? You seemed to defend TN rolling scum twice but it's possible for Grandma?

The odds for grandma and TN are significantly different. TN was scum in every game he has played in till now. Grandma has not. Her rerolling is much more likely than him.

The odds should be the same regardless, correct? If one player is given a higher chance of getting the same role again, then something is wrong.

 

[Avatar4321]

VOTE: Avatar

I do not want us going for a NL.

Mertex, I did not vote for you because of the way you respond to posts, although that does bring attention to you. I voted for you because of the bickering between you and Avi Day 1. Avi came back Day 2 posting like he had been Day 1, but started on others (me included). You were silent, as though it was planned out, unless someone mentioned/questioned you, which you would then say that person is scummy or suspicious. It's a pattern I noticed. People can question me or say I'm acting suspicious, and I'm not going to accuse them of the same unless I believe they are. That's how we keep dividing town in these games - attacking the ones that are playing. Anyone else notice this? It can't be just me.

I believe that puts both grandma and I at L1.

If you guys lynch me just remember the list of suspects I gave earlier. Not much has changed. I am town I just sincerely hope we aren't choosing between two town

 

[MeBelle]

My apologies for my absence. Hoping Wake sexplained for me.

I'll get to reading.

Happy Sunday!!!!!

 

[RosieS]

Sexplained

Well good for you MeBelle. Sex beats the heck outta what has been going on at Friends and Enemies!.

Regards from Rosie

 

[Avatar4321]

My apologies for my absence. Hoping Wake sexplained for me.

I'll get to reading.

Happy Sunday!!!!!

Wait, your sleeping with wake?

 

[Wake]

 

[FA_Q2]

And one more thing. Avatar was defending TN at the start of the game stating it was highly impossible TN rolled scum twice in a row for this game- due to mathematical improbability, that is how the whole thing started between Mertex and Avatar IIRC -Avatar defending TN and our suspicion for TN.

I see a lot of questionable things coming from Grandma too. Some of her posts have seemed off, way off and I have many suspicions about her.

With that said, wouldn't the same set of mathematical improbability Avatar spoke of apply to Grandma -which Avatar was touting for TN rolling scum twice in a row for this game?

This is my reservations about Grandma rolling scum twice- before and after reset.

The only thing I can come to, is she did roll scum twice in a row or she accidently outed she was scum when the hubbub started about the reset- when she said " I had scummy things planned". But why do that? IDK


Avatar, what are your thoughts on this? You seemed to defend TN rolling scum twice but it's possible for Grandma?

The odds for grandma and TN are significantly different. TN was scum in every game he has played in till now. Grandma has not. Her rerolling is much more likely than him.

This is yet another reason that I think you are scum. You are well aware that there is simply zero difference in the likely hood that one or the other is scum. The chances that one player is scum is completely independent of previous games and you sure as well know it. It is blatantly incorrect to state differently.

I guess we will find out though. If grandma is scum then I can't see you both bussing each other but when she flips town hopefully the others will see who has been orchestrating this town lynching mess.

 

[Avatar4321]

And one more thing. Avatar was defending TN at the start of the game stating it was highly impossible TN rolled scum twice in a row for this game- due to mathematical improbability, that is how the whole thing started between Mertex and Avatar IIRC -Avatar defending TN and our suspicion for TN.

I see a lot of questionable things coming from Grandma too. Some of her posts have seemed off, way off and I have many suspicions about her.

With that said, wouldn't the same set of mathematical improbability Avatar spoke of apply to Grandma -which Avatar was touting for TN rolling scum twice in a row for this game?

This is my reservations about Grandma rolling scum twice- before and after reset.

The only thing I can come to, is she did roll scum twice in a row or she accidently outed she was scum when the hubbub started about the reset- when she said " I had scummy things planned". But why do that? IDK


Avatar, what are your thoughts on this? You seemed to defend TN rolling scum twice but it's possible for Grandma?

The odds for grandma and TN are significantly different. TN was scum in every game he has played in till now. Grandma has not. Her rerolling is much more likely than him.

This is yet another reason that I think you are scum. You are well aware that there is simply zero difference in the likely hood that one or the other is scum. The chances that one player is scum is completely independent of previous games and you sure as well know it. It is blatantly incorrect to state differently.

I guess we will find out though. If grandma is scum then I can't see you both bussing each other but when she flips town hopefully the others will see who has been orchestrating this town lynching mess.

I haven't been orchestrating anything. I haven't forced anyone to vote her. In fact, I've been fully expecting to get voted off today.

And you are wrong about the stats.

 

[Avatar4321]

We have a little over three hours to make a decision.

 

[FA_Q2]

The odds for grandma and TN are significantly different. TN was scum in every game he has played in till now. Grandma has not. Her rerolling is much more likely than him.

This is yet another reason that I think you are scum. You are well aware that there is simply zero difference in the likely hood that one or the other is scum. The chances that one player is scum is completely independent of previous games and you sure as well know it. It is blatantly incorrect to state differently.

I guess we will find out though. If grandma is scum then I can't see you both bussing each other but when she flips town hopefully the others will see who has been orchestrating this town lynching mess.

I haven't been orchestrating anything. I haven't forced anyone to vote her. In fact, I've been fully expecting to get voted off today.

And you are wrong about the stats.

No I am not. how can you say that?

If I flip a coin ten times and get heads ten times, what is the chance that the next flip is heads? 50% period. That is mathematical fact and there is simply no way you do not know that.

 

[MeBelle]

My apologies for my absence. Hoping Wake sexplained for me.

I'll get to reading.

Happy Sunday!!!!!

Sexplained

Well good for you MeBelle. Sex beats the heck outta what has been going on at Friends and Enemies!.

Regards from Rosie

My apologies for my absence. Hoping Wake sexplained for me.

I'll get to reading.

Happy Sunday!!!!!

Wait, your sleeping with wake?

Guaranteed win for the town!

A gentleman doesn't kiss and tell....

 

[Shaitra]

So where is TN? He said he'd be back in 4 hours max to lynch Avatar? Now he has a choice. But the deadline is getting close.

 

[Grandma]

Scarlet thought I was scum because I claimed VT.

As I've said a bunch of times I did that because of the nonsense surrounding the reset - a lot of people decided that since I was scum before the reset then I had to be scum after. That would mean that Wake simply said there was a reset. Wake wouldn't do that.

But the failure to believe that he roles had been reset continued. I had no choice but to claim.

And Scarlet herself said that she was having trouble because no one was playing the same. I have no doubt she would have got her bearings on Day 2.

As for the votes bouncing around, I made it clear from the start of this Day that I think Avatar's scum and I wanted to vote for him. I was denied that so I decided to play around a little, just to be a bitch. Much of that was under the influence of flu & Nyquil.

I've laid out everything, I've been as transparent as possible - to the point where TN basically told me to pipe down late last night.

TN, I'm not scum.

 

[Grandma]

MeBelle, are you going to vote?

 

[MeBelle]

MeBelle, are you going to vote?

Yes, catching up. Post # for last VC pls?

 

[Grandma]

Just wondering. We have an hour and a half here.

I'll just sit here in the room with Avi. We can stare at each other across the table.