Official USMB Mafia Game #6: The Rebels In The Palace

[Wolfsister77]

SR is not scum people. There's no way. She's town. Move somewhere else. Seriously.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Grandma, While both townreading Aye makes Aye Ruler more likely, that is not a lock. A good way to play scum is to scumread your buddies but always have somewhere better to vote.

You know that and I know that. FA probably does too, but is he (or Shaitra) going to risk the Ruler getting lynched because of his (their) read(s)? I doubt it. The Guards might bus each other if they feel the need (and know who their cronies are,) but they won't at all risk the Ruler.

RIght, and how many times did Shai read Avatar, Wolfsister and Aye as town? Every single one of her reads. How many times did FA defend Avatar?

People always got voted for suggesting Aye scum. Things like that suggest Aye ruler. Aye v Avatar, Aye v me.

Was this before of after FA and Shai died? And were FA and Shai in on this voting? Because the way I see it if they were gone, then the only person voting for someone other than Aye ( if she is ruler) would be the only remaining guard. So who was turning the vote against Aye's wagon? It can only be one. Usurper would want Aye dead too. So I can't follow this logic SR, unless you are saying this has been a pattern all game and we can find FA and Shai starting counter wagons- along with one last suspected guard.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Dammit the last part of my first paragraph in this post is missing! I hate this forum.

 

[CaféAuLait]

I'll be able to read more and respond to some thing in the morning. I suppose this this a prod dodge. I have to go work now.

This post bothers me Josh. Why would you need a prod when you posted this AM? You votes have been all over the board as well. Here and there, some without explanation. I'll tell you why it bother me, I was just reading a link House supplied in the Scum Hunting thread, and this is one thing it points out. Scum jumping into a thread, saying they are gone or will be back later or apologizing, offering nothing of substance and disappearing.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Grandma,

I'll straight shoot this. I am having issues with your arguments. A ton of your posts seem to keep reverting back to FA's reads. You keep referencing him over and over, almost as if that is the only argument you have. Perhaps since I have been reading from my phone I have missed something. But it seems as if you are leaning on his reads as being the "be all end all" and you are not making other logical arguments. I think you have referenced and linked to that FA's reads several times and have gone back to the "king" thing too several times.

I don't know why, but this is strange to me.

I thought Aye may be usurper because her voting pattern.

How about an argument for Aye, without using FA? Scum are scum, and since you think he may have been trying to fool us by saying "King" and it could have been 'Queen" why lean on FAs count so much?

Cafe, you had FA in your neighborhood Game 3. He was Scum with me in Game 4. You and I know how he plays.

There is no way in hell he would dare risk the Ruler by reading the Ruler as Scum. FA would read the Ruler as Null or Town.

His Scum/Leaning Scum reads: Scarlet, Mertex, Wolf, Ika.

His Null/Town reads: Aye, Shaitra, Cafe (The Old School), Arden, Avi, Josh, Grandma (TSO), Mathblade

From Wall Post 1766: FA defends Josh and calls Math Scum. He's very much after Wolf. He reads me (tso) and Scarlet as Scum. Defends Avi. Wants to PL Ika.

Later he and Shaitra wagon Avi.

So Scarlet, Mertex, Wolf, Ika, Avi, Math, Avi, and I = not Ruler, not likely Guard.

That leaves Aye, Shaitra, Cafe (The Old School), Arden, Josh.

Well, Shaitra turned out to be a Guard, didn't she?

So Aye, Cafe, Arden, Josh are left.

Shaitra read Aye as Town. I don't have the link for her full reads list, I got that bit of news from Avi.

SHAITRA AND FA BOTH LIST AYE AS TOWN.

That very much shortens the suspect list for me.

The reason why I said that is because you are putting too much into one read by FA. I think I already said I thought FA took risks, his outed his PR in our hood in game three without knowing if scum resided there. Here are Shai's Null reads, Shai is a very smart player and does NOT take risks. Should we put as much faith into her nulls?

Null:
Arden
Mertex
Mathblade
Josh_B
TSO!
MeBelle replacement

I found it of interest she mentioned "Mebelle's replacement" and Math ( Math replaced Mebelle) both under NULL.

Mathblade AKA Mebelle on her mind heavily for some reason?

 

[Mertex]

Post 1383 Official USMB Mafia Game 6 The Rebels In The Palace Page 70 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
SR saying FA, Avi, and ika are solid town reads.

Yeah, that's why I decided to go ahead and vote for SR. She has been jumping around and accusing everyone of being the ruler and scum. I had her pegged as the Usurper, and maybe she isn't, but she sure wants to get someone lynched, anyone, even if she doesn't vote for them.

The only reason I am not voting for you Wolf is because I feel you are the ruler and we're not getting a wagon on you for that reason. If you're town and have all the scum defending you, count your blessings.

@All The way to break this setup is to townhunt not to scumhunt. If you eliminate certain players as town, then the scum MUST be in the remainder. I'm hard reading ika as town and I doubt anything will change that. My gut says Wolf Arden Mertex JoshB scumteam, but it's best if I don't get into tunnelvision.

 

[CaféAuLait]

And FA's nulls:



Shaitra – null but shiatra is always hard as hell for me to read
TheOldSchool - ? where is he at @@Wake

Avatar4321 – Null but I tire of early lynches of avatar
Josh_B – null

tso! - null


Mathblade – null she hasn’t posted much

__________________________


Which nulls overlap between Shai and FA?

Mathblade
Josh
TSO

 

[CaféAuLait]

Which nulls overlap between Shai and FA?

Mathblade
Josh
TSO/Grandma

 

[Mertex]

Mertex

Please explain why you are voting SR. The lets see the flip is not sufficient.

I just posted a response to Aye's comments as to why I think SR is scum. Go back to my first list of reads, she was one I thought was scum from the start. She tried to round up several to vote for someone, (I can't remember exactly who she was after). She has accused several people of being scum, including yourself and myself, and others who I get a complete Town read on, like Aye. She tried to get a deal going with Town to get both of us lynched, which was not town at all. She was accusing Aye of being scum, but I did a complete read of all of Aye's posts and didn't find any one single post that I could say was suspicious. I'd be really surprised if Aye turns out to be Scum whenever her role is revealed.

She seems to think we have to get the guards first before getting the ruler, which doesn't make much sense to me which comes first. In fact, getting the ruler first would eliminate having to try and figure out who the last guard is.

 

[ScarletRage]

Post 1383 Official USMB Mafia Game 6 The Rebels In The Palace Page 70 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
SR saying FA, Avi, and ika are solid town reads.

Yeah, that's why I decided to go ahead and vote for SR. She has been jumping around and accusing everyone of being the ruler and scum. I had her pegged as the Usurper, and maybe she isn't, but she sure wants to get someone lynched, anyone, even if she doesn't vote for them.

The only reason I am not voting for you Wolf is because I feel you are the ruler and we're not getting a wagon on you for that reason. If you're town and have all the scum defending you, count your blessings.

@All The way to break this setup is to townhunt not to scumhunt. If you eliminate certain players as town, then the scum MUST be in the remainder. I'm hard reading ika as town and I doubt anything will change that. My gut says Wolf Arden Mertex JoshB scumteam, but it's best if I don't get into tunnelvision.

Yeah, I had the scumteam wrong awhile back. I talked things out with Wolf. A few flips also told me I was wrong. Ican be confident and wrong.

A lot of us have accused may different people. That's what scumhunting is.

 

[ScarletRage]

Mertex

Please explain why you are voting SR. The lets see the flip is not sufficient.

I just posted a response to Aye's comments as to why I think SR is scum. Go back to my first list of reads, she was one I thought was scum from the start. She tried to round up several to vote for someone, (I can't remember exactly who she was after). She has accused several people of being scum, including yourself and myself, and others who I get a complete Town read on, like Aye. She tried to get a deal going with Town to get both of us lynched, which was not town at all. She was accusing Aye of being scum, but I did a complete read of all of Aye's posts and didn't find any one single post that I could say was suspicious. I'd be really surprised if Aye turns out to be Scum whenever her role is revealed.

She seems to think we have to get the guards first before getting the ruler, which doesn't make much sense to me which comes first. In fact, getting the ruler first would eliminate having to try and figure out who the last guard is.

I did at first bc the sheer number of guards made it unlikely to get a ruler lynch.

 

[Mertex]

Grandma, While both townreading Aye makes Aye Ruler more likely, that is not a lock. A good way to play scum is to scumread your buddies but always have somewhere better to vote.

You know that and I know that. FA probably does too, but is he (or Shaitra) going to risk the Ruler getting lynched because of his (their) read(s)? I doubt it. The Guards might bus each other if they feel the need (and know who their cronies are,) but they won't at all risk the Ruler.

Except the guards don't know who the other guards are. The guards only know who the ruler is. The ruler doesn't even know who his guards are. So, no, it makes more sense to me that they would vote for the Ruler or give a null read on the ruler, so when they flip scum no one suspects their calls.

FA voted for Avatar in Post 1551 (which I think FA thought it would make us think Avi was not the ruler) then Avatar voted for FA in post 1561 - probably figuring that FA was not a guard, since FA voted for him.

 

[Grandma]

Cafe, look at their townreads as well, not just their nulls. And look at how they voted. For example, they both defended Avi, but then got on his wagon. Avi therefore could not possibly be the Ruler. Others caan be eliminated the same way.

Like I said, I'm certain that the Ruler/Guard come from
Arden, Aye, Cafe, Josh, and Shaitra.

(Just so you know, Cafe, I don't think you're either one.)

Compared with Shaitra's null reads (could I have the Town reads too, please?) what do we have:
Arden
Mertex
Mathblade
Josh_B
TSO!
MeBelle replacement


FA had Math and Mertex as Scum. I happen to know that I'm Town. So the overlap is Arden and Josh. On the Null reads overlap. The town read overlap could tell us more.

 

[Mertex]

Grandma, While both townreading Aye makes Aye Ruler more likely, that is not a lock. A good way to play scum is to scumread your buddies but always have somewhere better to vote.

You know that and I know that. FA probably does too, but is he (or Shaitra) going to risk the Ruler getting lynched because of his (their) read(s)? I doubt it. The Guards might bus each other if they feel the need (and know who their cronies are,) but they won't at all risk the Ruler.

RIght, and how many times did Shai read Avatar, Wolfsister and Aye as town? Every single one of her reads. How many times did FA defend Avatar?

People always got voted for suggesting Aye scum. Things like that suggest Aye ruler. Aye v Avatar, Aye v me.

Was this before of after FA and Shai died? And were FA and Shai in on this voting? Because the way I see it if they were gone, then the only person voting for someone other than Aye ( if she is ruler) would be the only remaining guard. So who was turning the vote against Aye's wagon? It can only be one. Usurper would want Aye dead too. So I can't follow this logic SR, unless you are saying this has been a pattern all game and we can find FA and Shai starting counter wagons- along with one last suspected guard.

This part of your comment doesn't make sense to me. There are several people voting for SR (against Aye)....they can't all be the last guard.

 

[Grandma]

Scarlet might be the Usurper, but she's not the Ruler or Guard.

Sheep me, people. Like I said, if Aye doesn't flip Ruler I'll vote myself the next Day and all of you can sheep that. Deal?

 

[Mertex]

I can't stand Avi this game.

Vote: Avatar4321

All this time you have been saying that you are convinced Avi is Town, and now that we have two wagons going, you vote for him? After I moved my vote from him to SR?

 

[CaféAuLait]

Grandma, While both townreading Aye makes Aye Ruler more likely, that is not a lock. A good way to play scum is to scumread your buddies but always have somewhere better to vote.

You know that and I know that. FA probably does too, but is he (or Shaitra) going to risk the Ruler getting lynched because of his (their) read(s)? I doubt it. The Guards might bus each other if they feel the need (and know who their cronies are,) but they won't at all risk the Ruler.

RIght, and how many times did Shai read Avatar, Wolfsister and Aye as town? Every single one of her reads. How many times did FA defend Avatar?

People always got voted for suggesting Aye scum. Things like that suggest Aye ruler. Aye v Avatar, Aye v me.

Was this before of after FA and Shai died? And were FA and Shai in on this voting? Because the way I see it if they were gone, then the only person voting for someone other than Aye ( if she is ruler) would be the only remaining guard. So who was turning the vote against Aye's wagon? It can only be one. Usurper would want Aye dead too. So I can't follow this logic SR, unless you are saying this has been a pattern all game and we can find FA and Shai starting counter wagons- along with one last suspected guard.

This part of your comment doesn't make sense to me. There are several people voting for SR (against Aye)....they can't all be the last guard.

I agree with you.

SR is suggesting (in the post of hers which I answered), there is always a counter to Aye's wagon, she says someone is put up instead of Aye. She is suggesting scum starts the counter. My point was this can't be true. The last guard would be the only one wanting to counter a wagon against Aye. ONE PERSON, Of course the usurper would jump on at some point IMO. Unless this one person ( which should be easy to figure out who this was) is countering Aye's wagon, this one person must be making a pretty strong argument and we should be able to figure out who this one person is.

 

[Mertex]

SR is not scum people. There's no way. She's town. Move somewhere else. Seriously.

That's what you've been saying about Avi, now all of a sudden you're voting for him?

 

[Mertex]

Grandma, While both townreading Aye makes Aye Ruler more likely, that is not a lock. A good way to play scum is to scumread your buddies but always have somewhere better to vote.

You know that and I know that. FA probably does too, but is he (or Shaitra) going to risk the Ruler getting lynched because of his (their) read(s)? I doubt it. The Guards might bus each other if they feel the need (and know who their cronies are,) but they won't at all risk the Ruler.

RIght, and how many times did Shai read Avatar, Wolfsister and Aye as town? Every single one of her reads. How many times did FA defend Avatar?

People always got voted for suggesting Aye scum. Things like that suggest Aye ruler. Aye v Avatar, Aye v me.

Was this before of after FA and Shai died? And were FA and Shai in on this voting? Because the way I see it if they were gone, then the only person voting for someone other than Aye ( if she is ruler) would be the only remaining guard. So who was turning the vote against Aye's wagon? It can only be one. Usurper would want Aye dead too. So I can't follow this logic SR, unless you are saying this has been a pattern all game and we can find FA and Shai starting counter wagons- along with one last suspected guard.

This part of your comment doesn't make sense to me. There are several people voting for SR (against Aye)....they can't all be the last guard.

I agree with you.

SR is suggesting (in the post of hers which I answered), there is always a counter to Aye's wagon, she says someone is put up instead of Aye. She is suggesting scum starts the counter. My point was this can't be true. The last guard would be the only one wanting to counter a wagon against Aye. ONE PERSON, Of course the usurper would jump on at some point IMO. Unless this one person ( which should be easy to figure out who this was) is countering Aye's wagon, this one person must be making a pretty strong argument and we should be able to figure out who this one person is.

First of all, I believe this is the first time that I remember Aye having a wagon, so SR's comment (according to your comment above) that there is always a counter to Aye's wagon doesn't make sense. SR has not even voted for Aye in any of the vote counts except this last one, 5.1. I wasn't on when the vote on Aye started, although I did mention when I saw that several were voting for her, that I didn't think she was scum. I didn't vote for SR until today because my vote on Avi was going nowhere. SR has been on my scumdar from the first, and I may be wrong, but I see her as more scummy than Aye.

 

[Grandma]

Sheep me.