Predictions For Friday's November Jobs Report

[LoneLaugher]

It's that time of the month! No......not THAT time, Rabbi. It's time for the jobs report. It comes out on Friday.

It has become a ritual over the past five years.....any positive data is met with a swift cry of "labor force participation" and "the real numbers are horrible" from our resident ODS nutbags.

After 68 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS of private sector jobs gains.....what can we expect for November?

My take........215,000 new non farm jobs and an unemployment rate UNDER 5%.

And........GO!

Much higher than 200k, but ya gotta remember it's seasonal jobs

He doesn't want to hear that. He believes that everyone is doing great, the economy is doing great, people are going to be spending a lot money, poverty will rapidly decrease, those presently receiving some form of government assistance, will soon be out shopping for a new home and car, and that Obama has turned things around, and nothing but blue skies are in the forecast.

Just ask him, he'll tell you how good we're doing.

People aren't spending more, though.
This "Black Friday" was barely gray.
Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of employees were pulled away from their families to go run these shifts that just HAD to be open only to see a drop in sales from last year in the billions

I think you are cherry picking.

Retail sales are up.

Black Friday Sales Down More Than $1 Billion

Black Friday Total Sales Crash 10% (Despite Rise In Online Spend) | Zero Hedge

Black Friday Store Sales Fall as Americans Buy More Online

Yes. One billion. And online sales made up for it.

This is silly. Retail sales are up.

 

[Dot Com]

It's that time of the month! No......not THAT time, Rabbi. It's time for the jobs report. It comes out on Friday.

It has become a ritual over the past five years.....any positive data is met with a swift cry of "labor force participation" and "the real numbers are horrible" from our resident ODS nutbags.

After 68 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS of private sector jobs gains.....what can we expect for November?

My take........215,000 new non farm jobs and an unemployment rate UNDER 5%.

And........GO!

Much higher than 200k, but ya gotta remember it's seasonal jobs

He doesn't want to hear that. He believes that everyone is doing great, the economy is doing great, people are going to be spending a lot money, poverty will rapidly decrease, those presently receiving some form of government assistance, will soon be out shopping for a new home and car, and that Obama has turned things around, and nothing but blue skies are in the forecast.

Just ask him, he'll tell you how good we're doing.

People aren't spending more, though.
This "Black Friday" was barely gray.
Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of employees were pulled away from their families to go run these shifts that just HAD to be open only to see a drop in sales from last year in the billions

how were online sales compared to last year this time? Stop acting foolish

Explain to me how that makes it okay to pull these people away from their families. (or did you miss that part?)
Online sales requires a fraction of employees that the "brick and mortar" needs to operate.
So, although a buncha people got hired, some/alot/most(?) may not have even been necessary.
Don't get me wrong. I think it's a good thing. The lower the demand for this bullshit shopping day, the easier my schedule

"pull these people away from their families."? lol. Last time I checked, no one is forced to work. You don't like the work conditions, quit

FYI- all retail sales schedules after thanksgiving are no mystery. No time off, no vacays during this period or you're in the wrong line of work,

 

[Sonny Clark]

I pick all of them. But, you can pick any that you can dispute with facts and data to back your claim up. I'm very sure that I can back up every single one of them. Everything that I listed has made headlines. Just today, I posted a couple of pieces that concerns citizen debt and the troubled manufacturing sector. CNNmoney.com has articles on the subjects all the time. I read them every single day. I don't make this stuff up. Several major news outlets report this stuff all the time. If you have sources that dispute the items, please give your sources so that I can go read what they say.

Pick one.

OK ----- Try #7 to start. But, as I have already said, I pick all of them, or else I wouldn't have included all in the list. But, you can give me your facts and data on #7 first. Please provide links. Thanks.

You want links? Where are yours?

Let me look at #7. Give me a sec.

21 Workplace Benefits That Are Rapidly Disappearing

That was from 2011. I'll need something more recent.

It hasn't changed. I'm looking for an undated one.

 

[Sonny Clark]

Lower wages and benefits..........hmmmmmm. Here ya go.

United States Average Hourly Wages | 1964-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar

Here is the 5 year.

United States Average Hourly Wages | 1964-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar

Thanks for the info.

I looked at the chart.

And? Are wages up or down?

In that chart, they're up.

 

[BlueGin]

it's holiday season, so duh, people get hired.


and as a reminder, again, job 'growth' isn't keeping pace with population growth, so more people are UE now than last year

Some of those employed also already have a full time job and just work seasonal jobs that only last 7 weeks and are then over.

 

[Sonny Clark]

Lower wages and benefits..........hmmmmmm. Here ya go.

United States Average Hourly Wages | 1964-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar

Here is the 5 year.

United States Average Hourly Wages | 1964-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar

Thanks for the info.

I looked at the chart.

And? Are wages up or down?

In that chart, they're up.

Real wage - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Sonny Clark]

For most workers, real wages have barely budged for decades

For most workers, real wages have barely budged for decades

According to the BLS, the average hourly wage for non-management private-sector workers last month was $20.67, unchanged from August and 2.3% above the average wage a year earlier. That’s not much, especially when compared with the pre-Great Recession years of 2006 and 2007, when the average hourly wage often increased by around 4% year-over-year. (During the high-inflation years of the 1970s and early 1980s, average wages commonly jumped 8%, 9% or even more year-over-year.)

But after adjusting for inflation, today’s average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power as it did in 1979, following a long slide in the 1980s and early 1990s and bumpy, inconsistent growth since then. In fact, in real terms the average wage peaked more than 40 years ago: The $4.03-an-hour rate recorded in January 1973 has the same purchasing power as $22.41 would today.

A similar measure, “usual weekly earnings” of employed, full-time, wage and salary workers, tells much the same story, albeit over a shorter time period. In seasonally adjusted current dollars, median usual weekly earnings rose from $232 in the first quarter 0f 1979 (when the series began) to $782 in the second quarter of this year (the most recent data available). But in real terms, the median has barely budged over that period.

 

[hortysir]

Much higher than 200k, but ya gotta remember it's seasonal jobs

He doesn't want to hear that. He believes that everyone is doing great, the economy is doing great, people are going to be spending a lot money, poverty will rapidly decrease, those presently receiving some form of government assistance, will soon be out shopping for a new home and car, and that Obama has turned things around, and nothing but blue skies are in the forecast.

Just ask him, he'll tell you how good we're doing.

People aren't spending more, though.
This "Black Friday" was barely gray.
Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of employees were pulled away from their families to go run these shifts that just HAD to be open only to see a drop in sales from last year in the billions

how were online sales compared to last year this time? Stop acting foolish

Explain to me how that makes it okay to pull these people away from their families. (or did you miss that part?)
Online sales requires a fraction of employees that the "brick and mortar" needs to operate.
So, although a buncha people got hired, some/alot/most(?) may not have even been necessary.
Don't get me wrong. I think it's a good thing. The lower the demand for this bullshit shopping day, the easier my schedule

"pull these people away from their families."? lol. Last time I checked, no one is forced to work. You don't like the work conditions, quit

FYI- all retail sales schedules after thanksgiving are no mystery. No time off, no vacays during this period or you're in the wrong line of work,

I'll be on vacation the week of Christmas (third year in a row)
I just hate it that our culture has turned into such a 24/7/365 go-go-go hamster wheel

 

[Sonny Clark]

 

[Sonny Clark]

 

[hortysir]

it's holiday season, so duh, people get hired.


and as a reminder, again, job 'growth' isn't keeping pace with population growth, so more people are UE now than last year

Some of those employed also already have a full time job and just work seasonal jobs that only last 7 weeks and are then over.

But some, like 3 of my employees, jumped ship for this seasonal shit and burned their bridge back.
Good news, I guess, is that they'll only have to wait another 7/8 weeks for their EIC check

 

[PredFan]

I predict that yet again, the Obama Administration will cook the numbers, lie about them, and the MSM will push that narrative.

So far I've been right every time.

 

[pinqy]

I predict that yet again, the Obama Administration will cook the numbers, lie about them, and the MSM will push that narrative.

So far I've been right every time.

How are you claiming the administration cooks the number? What is the exact process you're suggesting?

 

[edthecynic]

And the number unemployed is DECREASING, not increasing because employment is more than keeping up with population growth.

yes but at lower wages and fewer hours and that is with 0% interest rates. Worst recovery since Great Depression which is why Fed is so afraid to raise interest rates above 0% while Barry is at the helm!

The Right can't stop themselves from lying!
Average weekly hours have increased from 33.8 when Bush left to 34.5 now and average weekly earnings have increased from $746.30 when Bush left to $869.40 now.

 

[edthecynic]

People aren't spending more, though.
This "Black Friday" was barely gray.
Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of employees were pulled away from their families to go run these shifts that just HAD to be open only to see a drop in sales from last year in the billions

Only because people are spending record numbers of dollars online!
The Right ALWAYS leaves something out when they lie!
Cyber Monday is now Cyber Everyday.

 

[edthecynic]

OK ----- Try #7 to start. But, as I have already said, I pick all of them, or else I wouldn't have included all in the list. But, you can give me your facts and data on #7 first. Please provide links. Thanks.

(7) Lower wages and less employer paid benefits
According to BLS average weekly earnings have increased from $746.30 when Bush left to $869.40 now.

You provided no links or numbers and like a typical double-standard Right-wing hypocrite you demand more than you provide!

BLS Data Viewer

 

[Two Thumbs]

it's holiday season, so duh, people get hired.


and as a reminder, again, job 'growth' isn't keeping pace with population growth, so more people are UE now than last year

What about the other 68 months?

That's a great strategy for the GOP to use when the good news comes out Friday though. Good job.

incredibly slow growth that can't keep pace with population?

what else needs to be said?

dems suck at this bullshit job creation idea of theirs and they are proud of sucking.

Nah no one's buying that these days. Go with your other strategy.

I know, leftists hate that fact, since it's been true each and every month

 

[Two Thumbs]

it's holiday season, so duh, people get hired.


and as a reminder, again, job 'growth' isn't keeping pace with population growth, so more people are UE now than last year

What about the other 68 months?

That's a great strategy for the GOP to use when the good news comes out Friday though. Good job.

incredibly slow growth that can't keep pace with population?

what else needs to be said?

dems suck at this bullshit job creation idea of theirs and they are proud of sucking.

The GOP controls Congress, what are they doing?

Major medical corp sold itself to a smaller one to move out of country to avoid taxes and heavy regulations.

they aren't the first and won't be the last

 

[Two Thumbs]

it's holiday season, so duh, people get hired.

Which is why the numbers are seasonally adjusted. The unadjusted change in jobs for Sept-Oct was 1,152,000, adjusted down to 271,000 because most of those jobs were because hiring always goes up in October.

and as a reminder, again, job 'growth' isn't keeping pace with population growth, so more people are UE now than last year

No, the number of unemployed has gone down by about 1 million. And the employment-population ratio has held steady for over a year, so employment is keeping up with population growth....October last year it was 59.5%, and it was 59.5% this October.

so after 7 years....

That is nothing to cheer about.

 

[Two Thumbs]

it's holiday season, so duh, people get hired.


and as a reminder, again, job 'growth' isn't keeping pace with population growth, so more people are UE now than last year

What about the other 68 months?

That's a great strategy for the GOP to use when the good news comes out Friday though. Good job.

Umm ... that would be a holiday season that's lasted an unprecedented 68 months.

Friday will make 69.

G'head .... this is where you bitch and moan about the labor force participation rate and part time jobs.

I'll repeat for the slow thinkers.

more people are ue b/c job creation is not keeping pace with population growth.

or in other words

you got sold a lie and you don't care to know the truth.