There is just no doubt that, statistically speaking, the GOP has the upper hand, but a number of factors are coming into play: a contentious GOP primary that had to go into "overtime", a practically uncontested Democratic nominee with high name value and a state where Democratic voter registration continues to increase from year to year, although the state of Georgia does not publish VR officially by party affiliation.
Consider this:
In 2008, Georgia was John McCain's third leanest win, after MO (+0.13%) and MT (+2.38%). McCain carried Georgia by +5.20% in 2008.
Fast forward to 2012. Without sinking any real money into Georgia and without having campaigned in the state at all, President Obama lost the Peach State by -7.80% (Romney won by +7.80%).
Here is where is gets interesting:
7.80 - 5.20 = 2.60
So, the state SWUNG 2.6 points to the RIGHT in 2012 over 2008.
Let's compare that to the national results:
2008: Obama +7.26%
2012: Obama +3.86%
3.86 - 7.26 = -3.40
So, the nation SWUNG away from the Democratic Party by -3.4 points, or, better put, The nation SWUNG to the RIGHT by 3.4 points in 2012 over 2008.
Georgia swung less to the Right than the rest of the nation in 2012.
So, without even trying, Obama got to 45.39% of the PV in the Peach State in 2012. Had he actually campaigned there, he MAY have gotten to 47%, maybe not, but the point is that even in a year with strong anti-incumbent feellings, the incumbent won and Georgia stayed a single digit GOP state. That makes it ripe pickings for the future, and the Democratic Party knows it.
Now, at the end of the day, imo, all politics is local and the lessons learned from one election may or may not be applicable in the next election, so, wait and see.
I bet many have forgotten that Georgia has a 50% hurdle for the General Election as well and since Michelle Nunn and David Perdue may indeed be locked into a three man race with Libertarian Amanda Swafford, it means that just as in 2008, there may have to be a runoff race after the GE, which is very, very likely to favor the GOP due to generally lower voter turnout for runoffs.
BTW, I am 100% sure that Hillary Clinton will pick-up Georgia in 2016 and I bet she will win by at least +6.
Those are some pretty interesting numbers. But when you hit that last statement, I had to blink. It sounds pretty outlandish on the surface, but maybe not quite so outlandish after I took a look a few other numbers.
In 2008 the contested Democratic Primary that had no incumbent attracted 1,060,851 voters. In 2012 the contested Republican Primary that had no incumbent attracted 900,434 voters - 160, 417 fewer.
Yes, I know it's not a true apple-to-apples comparison, but it did surprise me. Maybe your prediction is not as outlandish as I thought ???
I am generally careful comparing primary voting with GE voting, but it is indeed true that the Democratic vote in GA is growing. In 2008, when Obama really was contesting the state (well, halfway), 500,000 new Democrats were registered. Only, first time Democrats often tend to be lazy and not go back to vote again. In this respect, first time Republican voters are more reliable, which is also part of the reason why the GOP will do quite well in the coming 2014 mid-terms, exactly in line with electoral history since 1854.
Nationally, President Obama won the female vote by +11 in 2012:
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
(Nationally, he won the female vote by +13 in 2008)
In Georgia, in 2008, then Democratic nominee Obama won the female vote in Georgia by +9
Georgia - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times
In state poll after state poll, in the internals, Hillary Clinton is winning the female vote by circa +20.
Assuming that Hillary Clinton does not do worse in the White Vote than Obama did in 2012 (she won't, she will do better) and if Hillary pulls +20 in the female vote, then she wins GA. It's really that simple.
The female vote will swell over the banks in the number of red states and Clinton will win them, depending on exactly who the GOP candidate is.
A rising tide lifts all boats.
NO FUCKING WAY Hillary Clinton wins the south much less Georgia.
We do not want another Clinton. Liars, fakes and crooks the both of them.