Red Georgia U.S. Senate Seat Going BLUE!

[Gadawg73]

There is just no doubt that, statistically speaking, the GOP has the upper hand, but a number of factors are coming into play: a contentious GOP primary that had to go into "overtime", a practically uncontested Democratic nominee with high name value and a state where Democratic voter registration continues to increase from year to year, although the state of Georgia does not publish VR officially by party affiliation.

Consider this:

In 2008, Georgia was John McCain's third leanest win, after MO (+0.13%) and MT (+2.38%). McCain carried Georgia by +5.20% in 2008.

Fast forward to 2012. Without sinking any real money into Georgia and without having campaigned in the state at all, President Obama lost the Peach State by -7.80% (Romney won by +7.80%).

Here is where is gets interesting:

7.80 - 5.20 = 2.60

So, the state SWUNG 2.6 points to the RIGHT in 2012 over 2008.

Let's compare that to the national results:

2008: Obama +7.26%
2012: Obama +3.86%

3.86 - 7.26 = -3.40

So, the nation SWUNG away from the Democratic Party by -3.4 points, or, better put, The nation SWUNG to the RIGHT by 3.4 points in 2012 over 2008.

Georgia swung less to the Right than the rest of the nation in 2012.

So, without even trying, Obama got to 45.39% of the PV in the Peach State in 2012. Had he actually campaigned there, he MAY have gotten to 47%, maybe not, but the point is that even in a year with strong anti-incumbent feellings, the incumbent won and Georgia stayed a single digit GOP state. That makes it ripe pickings for the future, and the Democratic Party knows it.

Now, at the end of the day, imo, all politics is local and the lessons learned from one election may or may not be applicable in the next election, so, wait and see.

I bet many have forgotten that Georgia has a 50% hurdle for the General Election as well and since Michelle Nunn and David Perdue may indeed be locked into a three man race with Libertarian Amanda Swafford, it means that just as in 2008, there may have to be a runoff race after the GE, which is very, very likely to favor the GOP due to generally lower voter turnout for runoffs.

BTW, I am 100% sure that Hillary Clinton will pick-up Georgia in 2016 and I bet she will win by at least +6.

Those are some pretty interesting numbers. But when you hit that last statement, I had to blink. It sounds pretty outlandish on the surface, but maybe not quite so outlandish after I took a look a few other numbers.

In 2008 the contested Democratic Primary that had no incumbent attracted 1,060,851 voters. In 2012 the contested Republican Primary that had no incumbent attracted 900,434 voters - 160, 417 fewer.

Yes, I know it's not a true apple-to-apples comparison, but it did surprise me. Maybe your prediction is not as outlandish as I thought ???

I am generally careful comparing primary voting with GE voting, but it is indeed true that the Democratic vote in GA is growing. In 2008, when Obama really was contesting the state (well, halfway), 500,000 new Democrats were registered. Only, first time Democrats often tend to be lazy and not go back to vote again. In this respect, first time Republican voters are more reliable, which is also part of the reason why the GOP will do quite well in the coming 2014 mid-terms, exactly in line with electoral history since 1854.

Nationally, President Obama won the female vote by +11 in 2012:

Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

(Nationally, he won the female vote by +13 in 2008)

In Georgia, in 2008, then Democratic nominee Obama won the female vote in Georgia by +9


Georgia - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times


In state poll after state poll, in the internals, Hillary Clinton is winning the female vote by circa +20.

Assuming that Hillary Clinton does not do worse in the White Vote than Obama did in 2012 (she won't, she will do better) and if Hillary pulls +20 in the female vote, then she wins GA. It's really that simple.

The female vote will swell over the banks in the number of red states and Clinton will win them, depending on exactly who the GOP candidate is.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

NO FUCKING WAY Hillary Clinton wins the south much less Georgia.
We do not want another Clinton. Liars, fakes and crooks the both of them.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Those are some pretty interesting numbers. But when you hit that last statement, I had to blink. It sounds pretty outlandish on the surface, but maybe not quite so outlandish after I took a look a few other numbers.

In 2008 the contested Democratic Primary that had no incumbent attracted 1,060,851 voters. In 2012 the contested Republican Primary that had no incumbent attracted 900,434 voters - 160, 417 fewer.

Yes, I know it's not a true apple-to-apples comparison, but it did surprise me. Maybe your prediction is not as outlandish as I thought ???

I am generally careful comparing primary voting with GE voting, but it is indeed true that the Democratic vote in GA is growing. In 2008, when Obama really was contesting the state (well, halfway), 500,000 new Democrats were registered. Only, first time Democrats often tend to be lazy and not go back to vote again. In this respect, first time Republican voters are more reliable, which is also part of the reason why the GOP will do quite well in the coming 2014 mid-terms, exactly in line with electoral history since 1854.

Nationally, President Obama won the female vote by +11 in 2012:

Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

(Nationally, he won the female vote by +13 in 2008)

In Georgia, in 2008, then Democratic nominee Obama won the female vote in Georgia by +9


Georgia - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times


In state poll after state poll, in the internals, Hillary Clinton is winning the female vote by circa +20.

Assuming that Hillary Clinton does not do worse in the White Vote than Obama did in 2012 (she won't, she will do better) and if Hillary pulls +20 in the female vote, then she wins GA. It's really that simple.

The female vote will swell over the banks in the number of red states and Clinton will win them, depending on exactly who the GOP candidate is.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

NO FUCKING WAY Hillary Clinton wins the south much less Georgia.
We do not want another Clinton. Liars, fakes and crooks the both of them.

Well, you are certainly welcome to your opinion, I cherish your right to express said opinion...

 

[PoliticalTorch]

Those are some pretty interesting numbers. But when you hit that last statement, I had to blink. It sounds pretty outlandish on the surface, but maybe not quite so outlandish after I took a look a few other numbers.

In 2008 the contested Democratic Primary that had no incumbent attracted 1,060,851 voters. In 2012 the contested Republican Primary that had no incumbent attracted 900,434 voters - 160, 417 fewer.

Yes, I know it's not a true apple-to-apples comparison, but it did surprise me. Maybe your prediction is not as outlandish as I thought ???

I am generally careful comparing primary voting with GE voting, but it is indeed true that the Democratic vote in GA is growing. In 2008, when Obama really was contesting the state (well, halfway), 500,000 new Democrats were registered. Only, first time Democrats often tend to be lazy and not go back to vote again. In this respect, first time Republican voters are more reliable, which is also part of the reason why the GOP will do quite well in the coming 2014 mid-terms, exactly in line with electoral history since 1854.

Nationally, President Obama won the female vote by +11 in 2012:

Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

(Nationally, he won the female vote by +13 in 2008)

In Georgia, in 2008, then Democratic nominee Obama won the female vote in Georgia by +9


Georgia - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times


In state poll after state poll, in the internals, Hillary Clinton is winning the female vote by circa +20.

Assuming that Hillary Clinton does not do worse in the White Vote than Obama did in 2012 (she won't, she will do better) and if Hillary pulls +20 in the female vote, then she wins GA. It's really that simple.

The female vote will swell over the banks in the number of red states and Clinton will win them, depending on exactly who the GOP candidate is.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

NO FUCKING WAY Hillary Clinton wins the south much less Georgia.
We do not want another Clinton. Liars, fakes and crooks the both of them.

I wouldn't be saying that too loud and with that much confidence if I was you. Hillary is looking pretty damn Great in the South right now including of course, the peach state of Georgia.

2016 poll: Hillary Clinton leads GOP in Georgia - Kevin Robillard - POLITICO.com

Reed: Clinton will win Georgia if she runs | MSNBC

 

[Gadawg73]

Bet big $$$ Clinton loses in Georgia.

 

[TooTall]

Jimmy Carter was a decent man and poor president. His administration was crippled from the start when he took on pork-barrel spending and his own party threw him under the bus. When Americans watched the hostage crisis drag on for more than a year, his goose was permanently cooked.

But he was right on pork-barrel spending and he was right on energy.

He started off as a terrific ex-president but blew that chance to rehabilitate his image when he failed to follow the precedent of ex-presidents staying above the fray.

But he remains enormously popular in Georgia and probably accounts for some of why his grandson is polling so well in a state in which no Democrat currently holds a statewide office. Of course Deal screwing the pooch so badly and getting caught lying on camera during last year's ice storm did not help him at all.

But I would still be very surprised to see Carter win. Georgia is still a likely GOP state.

I agree with everything but the last sentence, with the argument:

demographics, demographics, demographics.

What you are saying in code is ALL of the black folks and ALL of the hispanics will vote for a Democrat. And, I agree since they want to continue getting their free stuff. But I don't think there are enough of them to swing the election for her.

 

[Gadawg73]

Those are "favorable opinion" polls dude.

 

[TooTall]

Bet big $$$ Clinton loses in Georgia.

No bet. No way does she win Georgia.

 

[Gadawg73]

My county there is a new club called The Black Republicans.
Growing fast also as this is a suburban area.

 

[PoliticalTorch]

My county there is a new club called The Black Republicans.
Growing fast also as this is a suburban area.

Then those folks better wise up to the fact that the Republican Party has absolutely Nothing to offer to them other than headaches and heartaches therefore, is not worth their vote unless of course, they are independently wealthy.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jimmy Carter was a decent man and poor president. His administration was crippled from the start when he took on pork-barrel spending and his own party threw him under the bus. When Americans watched the hostage crisis drag on for more than a year, his goose was permanently cooked.

But he was right on pork-barrel spending and he was right on energy.

He started off as a terrific ex-president but blew that chance to rehabilitate his image when he failed to follow the precedent of ex-presidents staying above the fray.

But he remains enormously popular in Georgia and probably accounts for some of why his grandson is polling so well in a state in which no Democrat currently holds a statewide office. Of course Deal screwing the pooch so badly and getting caught lying on camera during last year's ice storm did not help him at all.

But I would still be very surprised to see Carter win. Georgia is still a likely GOP state.

I agree with everything but the last sentence, with the argument:

demographics, demographics, demographics.

What you are saying in code is ALL of the black folks and ALL of the hispanics will vote for a Democrat. And, I agree since they want to continue getting their free stuff. But I don't think there are enough of them to swing the election for her.

There is where we will disagree. A good Democratic candidate will probably get 90% of the Black vote, 75-80% of the Jewish vote, 70-75% of the Latino vote, 85% of of the American Indian vote, 70% of the American Asian/Pacific Islander vote (depending on geography) and maybe 40% of the White vote, because those minority groups (and here, I am not speaking about the White vote, of course) see a platform from the Democrats that is more in their interest, and it has nothing to do with "free stuff", which is just the cheap-assed nutty Right-Wing way of insulting minority groups without being willing to admit that most of the Republican platform sucks big donkey dicks.

It's really that simple. And until Conservatives learn that this tactic will not work for them, then minorities will continue to vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates all over this great land of ours.

 

[JoeB131]

[

Herman Cain led in all the polls November 2011 NBC.Wall Street Journal Poll
WSJ article "Cain's numbers are SKY HIGH among Republican primary voters"
And then Democratic Pollster Bill McIntruff followed with:
"Herman Cain is the leader, that is the story. Perry had declined badly"
That was from a DEMOCRAT pollster.

As hard as you try Joe you just never do your research for the TRUTH.

Herman Cain LED the entire REpublican field until white Democrats lynched him.
HOW DARE a Negro leave the Plantation, earn a Masters of Science and Information Systems at Purdue University with honors, work as a ballistics systems engineer with The DEpartment of US Navy, sit on numerous boards, sit on The Federal Reserve and manage nunerous corporations?
Negores are not supposed to do that. Negores are supposed to be subservient to their Democratic Masters.

Okay, that's all very nice spin, but at the end of the day, Cain decided to suspend his campaign. No one forced him out.

I knew it was over when he made public appearences denying the charges and Mrs. Cain was nowhere to be found.

 

[Listening]

Who in the world is Michelle Nunn?

Aha! I see you didn't read the story or you would know. She is the Democratic challenger in the Georgia U.S. Senate race who is trouncing the two Republicans vying for the Senate seat in Georgia. For a Democrat, she is doing phenomenonally well in red Georgia!

She's the daughter of Sam Nunn, a very very very good (and very very very moderate) democratic senator from Georgia.

She'll have to win on her own.

BTW: The site you chose to quote from is good to fertilize your garden...nothing more.

Get a clue.

 

[whitehall]

"Doing great" and "quite good" is the extent of the left's political assessment.

 

[AceRothstein]

Way too early, especially with the GOP opponent being undecided.

 

[Gadawg73]

[

Herman Cain led in all the polls November 2011 NBC.Wall Street Journal Poll
WSJ article "Cain's numbers are SKY HIGH among Republican primary voters"
And then Democratic Pollster Bill McIntruff followed with:
"Herman Cain is the leader, that is the story. Perry had declined badly"
That was from a DEMOCRAT pollster.

As hard as you try Joe you just never do your research for the TRUTH.

Herman Cain LED the entire REpublican field until white Democrats lynched him.
HOW DARE a Negro leave the Plantation, earn a Masters of Science and Information Systems at Purdue University with honors, work as a ballistics systems engineer with The DEpartment of US Navy, sit on numerous boards, sit on The Federal Reserve and manage nunerous corporations?
Negores are not supposed to do that. Negores are supposed to be subservient to their Democratic Masters.

Okay, that's all very nice spin, but at the end of the day, Cain decided to suspend his campaign. No one forced him out.

I knew it was over when he made public appearences denying the charges and Mrs. Cain was nowhere to be found.

Yes, Ms. Cain was no where to be found.
Unlike your boy Slick Willie Boom, Ms. Cain did not head up the Bimbo Control Department of Herman Cain's campaign like Hillary did for Bill.
Hillary Clinton is a liar and Ms. Cain is not.
You give Clinton a free pass because he is white and liberal and supports keeping blacks in their place.
You lynched Cain because he is a highly educated black man that was accused by white women and he happens to be a conservative.

 

[Gadawg73]

Way too early, especially with the GOP opponent being undecided.

Perdue won the Republican primary but you are right in that these "polls" were before the runoff.
But they did take them into account.
And way too early like you say.

 

[Gadawg73]

This is the left will put their spin on this Senate race in Georgia:
Perdue will be trashed and labeled evil and greedy by the left.
Nunn is respected by us and we like her but she has little to no experience and would be ineffective to represent Georgia in the Senate.
Modern day slash and burn politics of the left. Lies, spin, distortions, slants and anything they can do to bull shit their way.
And Georgians are too smart to go for it but we remain civil unlike the north east liberal academic elite that will be heading the Nunn campaign.

 

[Statistikhengst]

[

Herman Cain led in all the polls November 2011 NBC.Wall Street Journal Poll
WSJ article "Cain's numbers are SKY HIGH among Republican primary voters"
And then Democratic Pollster Bill McIntruff followed with:
"Herman Cain is the leader, that is the story. Perry had declined badly"
That was from a DEMOCRAT pollster.

As hard as you try Joe you just never do your research for the TRUTH.

Herman Cain LED the entire REpublican field until white Democrats lynched him.
HOW DARE a Negro leave the Plantation, earn a Masters of Science and Information Systems at Purdue University with honors, work as a ballistics systems engineer with The DEpartment of US Navy, sit on numerous boards, sit on The Federal Reserve and manage nunerous corporations?
Negores are not supposed to do that. Negores are supposed to be subservient to their Democratic Masters.

Okay, that's all very nice spin, but at the end of the day, Cain decided to suspend his campaign. No one forced him out.

I knew it was over when he made public appearences denying the charges and Mrs. Cain was nowhere to be found.

Yes, Ms. Cain was no where to be found.
Unlike your boy Slick Willie Boom, Ms. Cain did not head up the Bimbo Control Department of Herman Cain's campaign like Hillary did for Bill.
Hillary Clinton is a liar and Ms. Cain is not.
You give Clinton a free pass because he is white and liberal and supports keeping blacks in their place.
You lynched Cain because he is a highly educated black man that was accused by white women and he happens to be a conservative.

I am sensing great loathing of President Clinton on your part...

which is ok, it's your right to loathe whomever you want...

 

[Gadawg73]

Okay, that's all very nice spin, but at the end of the day, Cain decided to suspend his campaign. No one forced him out.

I knew it was over when he made public appearences denying the charges and Mrs. Cain was nowhere to be found.

Yes, Ms. Cain was no where to be found.
Unlike your boy Slick Willie Boom, Ms. Cain did not head up the Bimbo Control Department of Herman Cain's campaign like Hillary did for Bill.
Hillary Clinton is a liar and Ms. Cain is not.
You give Clinton a free pass because he is white and liberal and supports keeping blacks in their place.
You lynched Cain because he is a highly educated black man that was accused by white women and he happens to be a conservative.

I am sensing great loathing of President Clinton on your part...

which is ok, it's your right to loathe whomever you want...

I liked Clinton as he caved into pressure from the Republicans to pass Welfare reform to make WORK a requirement. Now Obama got rid of that on the food stamp requirement and opened the flood gates so able bodied single young males and females can sit on their ass at home, not work and suck off the government tit and get food stamps.
And the food stamp program more than doubled as a result of that.
NAFTA Clinton did well on.
Clinton knew how to cross the aisle when he knew he was beat.
I, unlike the liberal, loathe no one.

 

[TooTall]

I agree with everything but the last sentence, with the argument:

demographics, demographics, demographics.

What you are saying in code is ALL of the black folks and ALL of the hispanics will vote for a Democrat. And, I agree since they want to continue getting their free stuff. But I don't think there are enough of them to swing the election for her.

There is where we will disagree. A good Democratic candidate will probably get 90% of the Black vote, 75-80% of the Jewish vote, 70-75% of the Latino vote, 85% of of the American Indian vote, 70% of the American Asian/Pacific Islander vote (depending on geography) and maybe 40% of the White vote, because those minority groups (and here, I am not speaking about the White vote, of course) see a platform from the Democrats that is more in their interest, and it has nothing to do with "free stuff", which is just the cheap-assed nutty Right-Wing way of insulting minority groups without being willing to admit that most of the Republican platform sucks big donkey dicks.

It's really that simple. And until Conservatives learn that this tactic will not work for them, then minorities will continue to vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates all over this great land of ours.

It really is that simple. A good percentage of the white 40% that vote for the Democrats do so to get or keep getting their free stuff. If you don't believe that, you are completely in denial.

Until liberals learn that there has to be a line drawn when 63% of the federal budget goes to pensions, health care and welfare. Sooner rather than later the country goes broke.