The € EURO thread

[Toro]

Had a conversation with a big, well-known macro hedge fund this afternoon.

They think the euro is in deep trouble.

 

[percysunshine]

The Euro;

 

[Trajan]

Had a conversation with a big, well-known macro hedge fund this afternoon.

They think the euro is in deep trouble.

well, I assume they are taking the measures necessary and preparing to make a bundle along the way. fine by me.

merkel has already checked on the vaults that all those D marks went into. bet on it. and I am sure like our pentagon, whom has plans for invading virtually every country on the planet, being German, they have a finely tuned plan in place to bring them up into the daylight.


right now, I really feel, in my gut the only thing stopping them from getting off this sinking ship, is, the misplaced guilt they have been hauling around for 70 years. They should just do it, schedule a full Bundestag or whatever they call it, session and she should just come out and say it........end it. They are going to wind up doing it anyway, might as well do it now before they wind up sitting back 2 years from now saying Mien Gott, I wish we had just done it in 2012.

 

[KissMy]

Greek Debt Agreement Falls Far Short of What’s Needed to Save Euro

 

[Zander]

 

[FireFly]

The problems in Europe are helping, not hindering, the U.S economy -at least for now. The fact that the dollar is perceived as a safe haven acts as a sort of self-fulfilling prophesy. Investors flee the Euro and pile into US Dollars (mainly treasuries- which lowers interest rates). The Dollar then rises to reflect the increased demand. The increase validates the decision to buy in the first place, and attracts even more buyers looking to profit from its appreciation. It's a nice ride while it lasts.

But when reality rears its ugly head and the spell breaks, the reversal will be vicious.

This is the brainwashing dribble the media has been touting. The reality is foreign dollar reserves are plummeting & the US Federal Reserves monetary base is expanding rapidly. One day there will be a great epiphany.

 

[Zander]

The problems in Europe are helping, not hindering, the U.S economy -at least for now. The fact that the dollar is perceived as a safe haven acts as a sort of self-fulfilling prophesy. Investors flee the Euro and pile into US Dollars (mainly treasuries- which lowers interest rates). The Dollar then rises to reflect the increased demand. The increase validates the decision to buy in the first place, and attracts even more buyers looking to profit from its appreciation. It's a nice ride while it lasts.

But when reality rears its ugly head and the spell breaks, the reversal will be vicious.

This is the brainwashing dribble the media has been touting. The reality is foreign dollar reserves are plummeting & the US Federal Reserves monetary base is expanding rapidly. One day there will be a great epiphany.

And......

 

[FireFly]

The representatives of Greece's private creditors left Athens unexpectedly on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a disorderly default.

BNP Paribas has huge exposure to Greece along with other French banks. French banks will fail first.

 

[Trajan]

The representatives of Greece's private creditors left Athens unexpectedly on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a disorderly default.

BNP Paribas has huge exposure to Greece along with other French banks. French banks will fail first.

but they passed their stress tests with flying colors!!! how can that be?

 

[Trajan]

The representatives of Greece's private creditors left Athens unexpectedly on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a disorderly default.

BNP Paribas has huge exposure to Greece along with other French banks. French banks will fail first.

notice the language too, a "disorderly default" as opposed to....? the rubber is going to meet the road in 2012.

 

[FireFly]

notice the language too, a "disorderly default" as opposed to....? the rubber is going to meet the road in 2012.

Oh Yeah! It's going to get ugly on March 20th.

Greek default on a 14.4 billion euro payment due March 20, and to keep open the financing spigot from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

 

[FireFly]

Fitch Ratings on Friday downgraded the sovereign credit ratings for Italy, Spain, Slovenia, Belgium and Cyprus indicating there is a 1-in-2 chance of further downgrades in the next two years.

 

[Toro]

Fitch Ratings on Friday downgraded the sovereign credit ratings for Italy, Spain, Slovenia, Belgium and Cyprus indicating there is a 1-in-2 chance of further downgrades in the next two years.

The market doesn't care now that we have EuroQE.

 

[Iggy]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/humor/205541-like-father-like-son.html

 

[Trajan]

* JANUARY 31, 2012

Europe Tightens Fiscal Ties
Leaders of Euro Zone Agree on Closer Union; Still No Deal to Reduce Greek Debt


BRUSSELS—Leaders of 25 European Union governments agreed Monday night on what some billed as a historic pact to move to closer fiscal union and signed off on the details of a permanent bailout fund for the euro zone—yet Greece's looming debt restructuring threw a shadow over the summit.

more explanation of the idiocy at-
Europe Tightens Fiscal Ties - WSJ.com

I am sorry for the vulgarity, and the tirade but.....this is just, ....they are doubling down, minus a plan ( this warmed over horseshit is not a plan its a retread in denial of reality) and the ENACTED structure to get them out of the present mess.....


are these people fucking stupid....? seriously? I mean really honest to god stupid? Stupid can exist at all levels...like letting the assassination of one not very well liked or popular archduke take down a generation of youth on the European continent and not being able to see and recognize some not very complicated facts that have got them here.... ; a) which they created by ignoring the Maastricht Treaty fiduciary rules almost immediately after they unionized, b) lived with for 20 years and and..c) have taken them down a path that leads no where?

seriously are these people that insulated from reality?


meet the new boss, same as the old boss? Ha....the 'new rules', ' same as the old rules'.....

"hey Angie, we've never tried this before"

 

[Trajan]

quiet here lately, time for a pick me up.......


The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP

Some of our German readers may be laboring under the impression that following the €110 billion first Greek bailout agreed upon and executed in May 2010, the second Greek bailout would cost a "mere" €130 billion. Alas we have news for you - as of this morning, the formal cost of rescuing Greece for the adjusted adjusted adjusted second time has just risen to €145 billion, €175 billion, a whopping €210 billion, bringing the total explicit cost of all Greek bailout funds to date (and many more in store) to €320 billion. Which incidentally is a little more than Greek GDP (which however is declining rapidly) at 310 billion, only in dollars. So as of today, merely the ratio of the Greek DIP loan (Debtor In Possession, because Greece is after all broke) has reached a whopping ratio of 136% Debt to GDP. This excludes any standing debt which is for all intents and purposes worthless. This is secured debt, which means that if every dollar in assets generating one dollar in GDP were to be liquidated and Greece sold off entirely in part or whole to Goldman Sachs et al, there would still be a 36% shortfall to the Troika, EFSF, ECB and whoever else funds the DIP loan (i.e., European and US taxpayers)! Another way of putting this disturbing fact is that global bankers now have a priming lien on 136% of Greek GDP - the entire country and then some now officially belongs to the world banking syndicate. Consider that when evaluating Greek promises of reducing total debt to GDP to 120% in 2020, as it would mean wiping all existing "pre-petition debt" and paying off some of the DIP. Also keep in mind that Greece has roughly €240 billion in existing pre-petition debt, of which much will remain untouched as it is not held in Private hands (this is the debt which will see a major "haircut" - or not: all depends on the holdout lawsuits, the local vs non-local bonds and various other nuances discussed here). If you said this is beyond idiotic, you are right. It is not the impairment on the Greek "pre-petition' debt that the market should be worried about - that clearly is 100% wiped out. It is how much the Troika DIP will have to charge off when the Greek 363 asset sale finally comes. This is also what Angela Merkel will say tomorrow when Greece shows up on its doorstep with the latest "revised" agreement from its parliament to take Europe's money ahead of the March 20 D-Day. Because finally, after months (and to think we did the math for Die Frau back in July) Germany has done the math, and has reached the conclusion that letting Greece go is now the cheaper option.


more at
The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To

 

[Baruch Menachem]

It is always better to take care of a problem before it gets really bad. Now every day they dither it just gets worse.

 

[Trajan]

It is always better to take care of a problem before it gets really bad. Now every day they dither it just gets worse.

the very same short sighted politics that married them to the euro,will, like a bad marriage, keep them together, till one of them 'goes postal'....

 

[FireFly]

Nine Countries have been downgraded

Austria, France, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia have all been cut by one-notch

Cyprus, Italy, Portugal and Spain have been cut by two notches.

Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Ireland and Luxembourg have all seen their ratings affirmed.

5 Euro countries are rated as Junk Bond Status or worse.

- Austria cut by one notch to AA+ Outlook Negative
- Belgium keeps it's AA Outlook Negative
- Cyprus cut by two notches to BB+ Outlook Negative
- Estonia keeps it's AA- Outlook Negative
- France cut by one notch to AA+ Outlook Negative
- Finland keeps its AAA Outlook cut to Negative
- Germany keeps it's AAA Outlook Stable
- Greece keeps it's CCC Debt talks broke down between Greece and its creditors.
- Ireland keeps it's BBB+ Outlook Negative
- Italy cut by two notches to BBB+ Outlook Negative
- Luxembourg keeps it's AAA Outlook cut to Negative
- Malta cut by one notch to A- Outlook Negative
- Netherlands keeps it's AAA Outlook cut to Negative
- Portugal cut by two notches to BB Outlook Negative
- Spain cut by two notches to A Outlook Negative
- Slovakia cut by one notch to A Outlook Negative
- Slovenia cut by one notch to A+ Outlook Negative
- USA keeps it's AA+ Outlook Negative
- Canada keeps it's AAA Outlook Stable
- Mexico keeps it's BBB Outlook Stable

Moody’s play catch-up:

Moody’s Investor Service on Monday downgraded its credit ratings on Italy, Portugal and Spain, while France, Britain and Austria kept their top ratings but had their outlooks dropped to “negative” from “stable.”

Moody’s also cut its ratings on the smaller nations of Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta. All nine countries are members of the European Union.

 

[Wiseacre]

I heard today that the Greeks will have elections sometime this April. The guy that many favor to be the next prime minister was quoted as saying they should just pass the austerity measure and take the bailout money (again) and wait until after the elections to decide whether they will honor the terms. Nice. IMHO, the EU can bail Greece out until the cows come home, but eventually the Greeks will have to leave the Euro and go back to their drachma. And anybody who buys their bonds is a fool.