The Recovery Thread

[Si modo]

Hi, my name is Si modo and I'm an.......

?????

(Ooops, wrong recovery.)

 

[Foxfyre]

Hi, my name is Si modo and I'm an.......

?????

(Ooops, wrong recovery.)

Actually, wouldn't it be refreshing if we could just hear our esteemed elected leaders state just once:

"Hi, I'm President _________ or Speaker _________ or Senator __________ and I'm a spendaholic and taxaholic. And it is killing any chance we have for a recovery in the foreseeable future. I need help."

The stock market would double overnight.

 

[JakeStarkey]

While interesting, the numbers themselves can make your head spin. The bottom line is that millions of people who want work are out of work and millions more are underemployed. And our fearless leaders don't seem to give a damn about that and continue the destructive policies that got us into this.

heya Foxfyre! we haven't crossed paths in a good while. hope all is well.

just had to break a lil' off on your contention that government leaders don't care about unemployment.

Well, if they really gave a damn, don't you think they would have addressed that instead of using hundreds of billions of dollars and thus mortgaging our children and grandchildren's future to pay off their union buddies, contributors, and others they owe for whatever? Wouldn't you think they would have actually focused on long term projects that would have provided long term employment for many people?

Or better yet, wouldn't they have at least given careful consideration to the very practical suggestions for tax and regulation relief that would have freed up tens of thousands of employers to get back to work and start hiring again?

It's just like saying somebody cares about his/her health while sucking on another cigarette, having another fifth drink, wolfing down mountains of french fries and bacon burgers.

You are talking about Bush's TARP along with Obama's stimulus, yea?

 

[Foxfyre]

heya Foxfyre! we haven't crossed paths in a good while. hope all is well.

just had to break a lil' off on your contention that government leaders don't care about unemployment.

Well, if they really gave a damn, don't you think they would have addressed that instead of using hundreds of billions of dollars and thus mortgaging our children and grandchildren's future to pay off their union buddies, contributors, and others they owe for whatever? Wouldn't you think they would have actually focused on long term projects that would have provided long term employment for many people?

Or better yet, wouldn't they have at least given careful consideration to the very practical suggestions for tax and regulation relief that would have freed up tens of thousands of employers to get back to work and start hiring again?

It's just like saying somebody cares about his/her health while sucking on another cigarette, having another fifth drink, wolfing down mountains of french fries and bacon burgers.

You are talking about Bush's TARP along with Obama's stimulus, yea?

I strongly opposed TARP, but TARP was billed as necessary to keep the economic institutions of the country from collapsing. It wasn't billed as a 'job creator'. And TARP was not ultimately used as it was sold to us either and any repaid monies are seen as the President's petty cash fund to lavish on his cronies and debtors, so I feel as violated by that as I do the stimulus package, the proposed new stimulus packages, and the pork laden appropriation bills that have been subsequently passed.

(And it wasn't "Bush's TARP". It was supported by President Bush, yes, but also by candidates Barack Obama and John McCain and most of the votes for it came from a Democratic controlled Congress:

In the Senate:

Nine Democrats voted NOT to relesee the funds: Bayh (IN), Cantwell (WA), Dorgan (ND), Feingold (WI), Lincoln (AR), Ben Nelson (NE), Shaheen (NH), Sanders (VT), Wyden (OR).

Six Republicans voted to release the money: Alexander (TN), Gregg (NH), Kyl (AZ), Lugar (IN), Snowe (ME), Voinovich (OH).

In the House:

Voting for it: 241 Dems and 19 Republicans
Voting against it: 10 Dems and 156 Republicans.
Not Voting: 3 Dems and 4 Republicans.

 

[JakeStarkey]

So the vote was bipartisan in the Senate, and opposed heavily by the GOP in the House?

 

[Foxfyre]

So the vote was bipartisan in the Senate, and opposed heavily by the GOP in the House?

On further review, I misspoke in my previous post. Those numbers reflect how the vote went to release the second half of the TARP monies in 2009. Remember that the Bush administration distributed half the money and held half in reserve for the President Elect. At that point, as the monies had already been perceived to have been mismanaged re their original intent, the Republicans in both the House and Senate strongly opposed releasing the second half of the money.

In the original legilsation it was more bipartisan in both the House and Senate - the Senate vote for instance was 74 for and 25 against--the ailing Ted Kennedy did not vote. There was more opposition in the House, but without going through and reviewing the voting record of every member of Congress, I'm not finding sources that are breaking that down into parties.

(And I simply don't care enought to figure it person by person.)

 

[JakeStarkey]

Neither do I, Foxfyre. The Bush administration did some decent things at the end, and the Obama administration has tried. The recession is systemically corrective. Too many years of a free spending Congresses, free wheeling Wall Street, stupid teacher unions (and other unions), and general greed by the entire American people who wanted to live the good life on credit without being able to pay it off ~ neither party has the answer. In my party, the GOP, the far right of the Boehners, McConnells, Palins, birthers, truthers, wackers, don't give a damn about America.

I think gridlock is coming: Presidency and Senate will be Dem, the House may very well be Pub (I think several conservative Dems will caucus with the GOP).

Both parties are committed to power, not to the American people and not to what is right.

 

[Toro]

So, Toro, do you think this private sector employment is the turning of a corner? Or some kinda fluke?

I tend not to take any gyroscopic reading of our recovery too seriously because every few months most indicators seem to reverse course, even if only momentarily.

I don't know. Private job growth has grown every month this year but it appears that some forward looking indicators have slipped. Anecdotally, the companies we've talked to say they're hiring but there are reports in the press of more job cuts. I've also seen signs for jobs at fast food places where I live.

 

[Toro]

Chicago PMI came in well ahead of expectations and in significant expansion mode. This contradicts the regional Fed surveys. However, this index was also stronger than expected last month and also contradicted the regional Fed surveys.

Econoday Report: Chicago PMI September 30, 2010

 

[Toro]

I warned Toro not to be short in the face of the Fed's POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). They are flooding the market with cash & monetizing government debt.

Yes you did. I should have listened to you.

 

[Toro]

One last thing, at least for tonight.

This was the best September for the market since 1939, which was the beginning of WWII. The economic news in September was marginally good and slightly better than expected. When markets explode higher on marginally better news, it is usually a sign that both the market and the economy have reached a bottom.

I don't know if that's the case or not, especially given the expected new round of quantitative easing that the Fed is going to incur. However, it is important to be open-minded that the economy may accelerate in coming months.

 

[loosecannon]

One last thing, at least for tonight.

This was the best September for the market since 1939, which was the beginning of WWII. The economic news in September was marginally good and slightly better than expected. When markets explode higher on marginally better news, it is usually a sign that both the market and the economy have reached a bottom.

I don't know if that's the case or not, especially given the expected new round of quantitative easing that the Fed is going to incur. However, it is important to be open-minded that the economy may accelerate in coming months.

The dollar is falling like a rock. If we can't recover with a weak dollar we have big problems.

 

[Zander]

One last thing, at least for tonight.

This was the best September for the market since 1939, which was the beginning of WWII. The economic news in September was marginally good and slightly better than expected. When markets explode higher on marginally better news, it is usually a sign that both the market and the economy have reached a bottom.

I don't know if that's the case or not, especially given the expected new round of quantitative easing that the Fed is going to incur. However, it is important to be open-minded that the economy may accelerate in coming months.

Markets Exploded higher? September was a good bounce but seriously - we are up a paltry 3.4% for the year. That's more like a fart in a mud puddle than an explosion.

I hope you are right, but I am not betting on it. My advice is to stay defensive. Good luck!

 

[Toro]

One last thing, at least for tonight.

This was the best September for the market since 1939, which was the beginning of WWII. The economic news in September was marginally good and slightly better than expected. When markets explode higher on marginally better news, it is usually a sign that both the market and the economy have reached a bottom.

I don't know if that's the case or not, especially given the expected new round of quantitative easing that the Fed is going to incur. However, it is important to be open-minded that the economy may accelerate in coming months.

Markets Exploded higher? September was a good bounce but seriously - we are up a paltry 3.4% for the year. That's more like a fart in a mud puddle than an explosion.

I hope you are right, but I am not betting on it. My advice is to stay defensive. Good luck!

Yes, "exploded higher." The move off the September bottom was the steepest ascent since July 2009 when the SP500 bounced off 860. It ranks as one of the sharpest moves over the past decade.

It was, however, on light volume. September volume was down by about a third compared to the past five Septembers.

 

[uscitizen]

Overall trading volume is down quite a bit. Has been for a while, but everyone was afraid to bring it up.

 

[loosecannon]

Overall trading volume is down quite a bit. Has been for a while, but everyone was afraid to bring it up.

Something reined in the computer traders last spring and hence Goldman Sach's trading profits disappeared. Went from ginormous to nil in a few months.

Computer traders and then day traders accounted for the vast majority of trading volumes. Most "people" invest and wait for months or years before trading again. Computer traders can turn over new trades in seconds.

Reduced volumes is a good thing for the 401K crowd. It means the sharks have left the lagoon.

 

[KissMy]

I warned Toro not to be short in the face of the Fed's POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). They are flooding the market with cash & monetizing government debt.

Yes you did. I should have listened to you.

I think all the excitement about QE2 is wearing off. It may be time to short for a brief period until the Fed backs it's talk with more action. I went short CAT this morning which is a large DOW component that has really big swings. I'm planning on riding it from $80 to $72. I can't be short for long in this environment before the Fed intervenes. I am staying long the GLD & SLV though because another Trillion dollar bailout is coming in less than a year.

 

[Old Rocks]

Another worm's eye view. Last sunday, for the first time in many months, there were adds in the job section for production and maintenance supervisors in manufacturing. That is usually a sign that new shifts are going to be added to those facilities. When the adds start for maintenance and production workers, then we will see some real improvements.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I don't care which party, Old Rocks, such improvements help or hurt. The economy has to pick up, or all of us in the long run are going to have a long road to walk.

 

[Toro]

I warned Toro not to be short in the face of the Fed's POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations). They are flooding the market with cash & monetizing government debt.

Yes you did. I should have listened to you.

I think all the excitement about QE2 is wearing off. It may be time to short for a brief period until the Fed backs it's talk with more action. I went short CAT this morning which is a large DOW component that has really big swings. I'm planning on riding it from $80 to $72. I can't be short for long in this environment before the Fed intervenes. I am staying long the GLD & SLV though because another Trillion dollar bailout is coming in less than a year.

They don't even have to do QE2 for it to work. All the market has to believe is that they'll do it.