The Recovery Thread

[KissMy]

Yes you did. I should have listened to you.

I think all the excitement about QE2 is wearing off. It may be time to short for a brief period until the Fed backs it's talk with more action. I went short CAT this morning which is a large DOW component that has really big swings. I'm planning on riding it from $80 to $72. I can't be short for long in this environment before the Fed intervenes. I am staying long the GLD & SLV though because another Trillion dollar bailout is coming in less than a year.

They don't even have to do QE2 for it to work. All the market has to believe is that they'll do it.

I know, That is what was going on for the past week or two while you were trying to short based on fundamentals. Wall-streets excitement over QE2 drove up prices. Now the Feds telegraphed move is priced in & the timing is better for you to go short. If the Fed does not follow through with QE2 a big 800 point drop in the DOW will come.

 

[loosecannon]

a "big crash" of maybe 800 points.

Meanwhile back on earth stocks are merely doing their typical inverse dance to the falling dollar, so be wary of shorting anything unless the dollar strengthens.

 

[KissMy]

a "big crash" of maybe 800 points.

Meanwhile back on earth stocks are merely doing their typical inverse dance to the falling dollar, so be wary of shorting anything unless the dollar strengthens.

That can only go for so long. Once everyone runs to the weak dollar trade then there is nobody left to pile on to the trade moving it further along. A bounce back is typical. That is why you can squeeze in a quick short until the Fed puts its money where it's mouth is.

 

[JakeStarkey]

That is what investors are waiting to see, if the Fed is going to make the dollar more attractive. None the less, some money has been to make in the tech stocks the last few weeks.

 

[loosecannon]

a "big crash" of maybe 800 points.

Meanwhile back on earth stocks are merely doing their typical inverse dance to the falling dollar, so be wary of shorting anything unless the dollar strengthens.

That can only go for so long. Once everyone runs to the weak dollar trade then there is nobody left to pile on to the trade moving it further along. A bounce back is typical. That is why you can squeeze in a quick short until the Fed puts its money where it's mouth is.

IMO every indication exists that the Fed already began QE2 a week ago or more. Everybody assumes that they will buy more bonds. But what if they are buying euros instead, or Greek bonds, Irish bonds, Spanish bonds?

I just don't buy that the markets went so cookoo over something that wasn't happening. Maybe I am dead wrong, but my gut isn't buying it.

Debasement is ON!

 

[Chris]

The economy is recovering, and the Republicans are praying for a crash.

I am making tons of money and loving it.

 

[KissMy]

The economy is recovering, and the Republicans are praying for a crash.

I am making tons of money and loving it.

The economy was recovering. All indicators now show it slowing. That is the reason the Fed has to impose QE2. This is what gave the market the big lift that I benefited from. This market run is now long in the tooth & people will start to lock in profits. I made money shorting this run the last 2 days. If the Fed fails to follow through with the Trillion dollars, the DOW will drop 500 to 1000 points.

California is likely worse off than Greece. Within a year the Fed will have to shell out another Trillion to bail-out the States.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zr1zYUN6oj4"]U.S. May Face Bailout for States[/ame]

 

[Toro]

Personal income rose 0.5% in August. Personal spending was up 0.3%. Income and spending rose 3.3% and 2.7% respectively compared to last year.

Econoday Report: Personal Income and Outlays October 1, 2010

 

[william the wie]

Well the wheels are coming off in the foreclosure mill so 2011 may define the term interesting times.

 

[Toro]

Well the wheels are coming off in the foreclosure mill so 2011 may define the term interesting times.

With any luck, a huge backlog of potential foreclosures will come onto the market over the next year or two and I'll be able to buy something ridiculously cheap!

There's always an upside to everything.

 

[william the wie]

Well the wheels are coming off in the foreclosure mill so 2011 may define the term interesting times.

With any luck, a huge backlog of potential foreclosures will come onto the market over the next year or two and I'll be able to buy something ridiculously cheap!

There's always an upside to everything.

Not likely the reported paperwork is so poor that foreclosures, shortsells and even returns of title in lieu of foreclosure will reverse perhaps 30% of what has already been foreclosed but US debt levels will sink. This means also that one or more European banks that marketed this crap without sufficient due diligence are in big trouble. My mommy the bank director always warned me about my overly optimistic and too trusting nature. GMAC is beginning to make AIG look like a well-run company.

 

[Chris]

We are going to be ok.

There is plenty of money out there and plenty of opportunity.

My income has gone up 40% in the last year.

 

[Ravi]

I'm considering buying a warehouse.

 

[JakeStarkey]

We have bought almost more than 10mm in commercial properties in the last six months. Because we have been given much, we try to give much back. The great casualty of the Reagan devastation has been the retreat of the Social Compact.

 

[Chris]

Bush inherited a healthy economy, a nation at peace, and a budget surplus.

He turned that into an economic collapse, two useless wars, and a trillion dollar budget deficit.

It will take us years to recover from that village idiot.

 

[Toro]

Advanced retail sales up 0.6%, less autos up 0.4%. Including this number, retail sales are up 7.4% over the past 12 months, which is pretty damn good, much better than I expected.

Empire manufacturing came in at 15.7, better than expected. A reading above 0 implies expansion.

 

[froggy]

Banks lending money is a big problem now and will affect the recovery effort.

 

[KissMy]

Advanced retail sales up 0.6%, less autos up 0.4%. Including this number, retail sales are up 7.4% over the past 12 months, which is pretty damn good, much better than I expected.

Empire manufacturing came in at 15.7, better than expected. A reading above 0 implies expansion.

Retail sales are up because people stopped making mortgage payments & now shop with that money.

The discovery of Banks REMIC MERS bad loans is chock-full of moral hazards but I think this is good news for consumer stocks & bad for banks, title insurers & the dollar. This will lead to a lot of people getting free homes or their mortgage wiped out. This will decrease foreclosures & increase housing prices. There are going to be lot of discretionary dollars to spend by the people who's mortgages get wiped out. Inflation is going to hit because of this alone not to mention QE2.

Government has propped up Fannie / Freddie & Banks just long enough for the rich & powerful to get their money out. Who knows what BS will happen next. I believe we have been & are under the control of a fascist oligarchy. The economy is fucked except for those in power at the top. The game is rigged & the bankers who packaged the CDO's know which CDO's contain all the undocumented bad mortgages. It is a minefield & they have the map.

 

[Ame®icano]

Advanced retail sales up 0.6%, less autos up 0.4%. Including this number, retail sales are up 7.4% over the past 12 months, which is pretty damn good, much better than I expected.

Empire manufacturing came in at 15.7, better than expected. A reading above 0 implies expansion.

Every car that leave production line is counted as sale, even when is not actually sold.

Is coincidence that their inventories are high?

 

[antagon]

Banks lending money is a big problem now and will affect the recovery effort.

the real recovery will entail folks getting real about what they can earn and purchase with low/no credit.