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The I in CIA Can't Seriously Stand for Intelligence, So It Stands for EgoI have a feeling that leading Western strategists had plan A which included giving up Ukraine and allowing Russia to have their sphere of influence in some post-Soviet states. Crazy Russian demands and more crazy expectations in Moscow that they would be implemented in full led to switching of strategy. Maybe what we see now is something like plan C.
Crooks Cripple the CrusadeWhich is why I said this is not a NATO proxy war.
NATO wasn't giving Ukraine any odds of success. 72 to 96 hours was the expectation.
If NATO's intent was to use Ukraine to fight a war with Russia, there would have been some preparation.
Reported today Makarov is ID'ed just NW of Sevastopol. (This is SAR imagery so it's "likely but not confirmed")....The Black Sea isn't the Atlantic Ocean. If it's afloat, the shipspotters will find it.
I just happened across an interesting article that says Moscow's ballistic missile defenses will only protect against a maximum of two US ballistic missiles:1) The Russian ABD will defend Moscow region.
Back in 1985, yes, it was thought, that with relatively poor Soviet computers and relatively new American warheads, their new A-135 ABD system needs 5 counter-missiles to hit one real incoming warhead and, less than 100 missiles (allowed by ABD-treaty) can hit say, twenty warheads, delivered by two LGM-118 Peacekeepers (up to twelve Mk21 reentry vehicles each).I just happened across an interesting article that says Moscow's ballistic missile defenses will only protect against a maximum of two US ballistic missiles:
And that is how they would perform before a counterforce strike degrades them.
It's kind of like the situation with the US missile defense system. It is only able to intercept a small attack, and is completely useless against a large attack.
Fantasy.optical systems to distinguish real and fake targets
They'll be distracted by the penetration aids.Also, their air-defense, from S-300V4 and higher, can intercept ballistic targets moving with velocity lesser than 4,8 km/sec - incoming RVs in atmosphere.
Those reductions are due to the arms treaty with Russia.What is even more important, American nuclear forces were effectively degraded by the American nucleophobic (and/or corrupted) politicians. Right now the USA don't have Peacekeepers at all, and Minutemen have only one Mk-12A/Mk-21 reentry vehicle per missile
Don't count on it. US warheads will be protected by advanced penetration aids.without any modern counter-ABD measures.
There is no chance of that. Russia's missile defenses are like the US's missile defenses. They are only protection against small attacks.And that means, that the Russians (if they won initiative) can more or less successfully defend Moscow region against at least 100 Minutemen and, if they are lucky - against all 400 of them or against full salvo of one or even two Ohios (20 missiles each).
There is no chance of that. All of Russia's missile defense silos will be wiped out in the US counterforce strike.And this means, that their even moderately successful first counter-force strike can make impossible American "Moscow-flattering" retaliation strike.
It won't matter. An all-out retaliation strike will still destroy Russia's 300 largest cities.What is even more important, American all-out retaliation strike could make the USA defenseless against Chinese nuclear strike or Latino-American military invasion.
16 B2 bombers with 16 bombs apiece can nuke up to 256 targets. Then they can fly home, reload, and do it all again.That means, that right now the USA don't have Deterrence Type III (ability to fight a limited regional nuclear war) at all, don't have Deterrence Type II (ability to answer by a nuclear strike against extremely provocative behavior other than a direct nuclear attack against the USA),
The four Ohios that are on a countervalue mission have the ability to destroy Russia's 300 largest cities.and relatively weak Deterrence Type I (ability to answer on direct nuclear attack against the USA itself)
A rather foolish decision. The result would be a massive counterforce attack against Russia.under some circumstances the Russians can decide that the direct counter-force attack against the US nuclear forces is more safe for them, than alternatives.
You didn't mention "Poseidon" torpedoes, that could destroy the entire east coast of the USABack in 1985, yes, it was thought, that with relatively poor Soviet computers and relatively new American warheads,
Probably because Putin's tiny little midget torpedoes are so embarrassingly pathetic. Who in their right mind would ever want to remind people of such a failure?You didn't mention "Poseidon" torpedoes, that could destroy the entire east coast of the USA
It seems Putin sees this as a proxy war with America and NATO. How far could it go? Could it get to the point America gets directly involved?
You should go for political career. The country needs idiots like you.And Russia can't even do 100 megatons properly. A proper 100 megaton device would be pure fusion. Except Russia doesn't even know how to do that.
Don't blame me for the fact that Russia is so inept that they can't even build a proper nuclear weapon.You should go for political career. The country needs idiots like you.
Good. Keep thinking this.Don't blame me for the fact that Russia is so inept that they can't even build a proper nuclear weapon.
It's a fact that Russia can't even top 100 megatons in their tiny little midget torpedo.Good. Keep thinking this.
