Who is the NFL MVP this year?

[Couchpotato]

Pass Rush Win rate = how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds
Myles Garrett 30% (2nd)
TJ Watt 23% (5th)

Double Team Rate
Myles Garrett 31% (2nd)
TJ Watt 15% (15th)

Points Saved = How much a player contributes to stopping the run total via:

• # of players in "the box"
• Blown blocks forced
• Broken tackles allowed
• Forced Turnovers

Myles Garrett: 7.29 points saved (8th)
TJ Watt: 7.07 points saved (9th)

Should Myles Garrett be NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Here’s what the numbers say

Myles Garrett is gaining support in his bid to be the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year. Do the numbers back up Garrett's case?

www.cleveland.com

To Summarize, Myles Garrett has 13 sacks and 4 Forced Fumbles (Compared to Watts 16 sacks and 3 Forced Fumbles) as he is being able to beat his opponent more often while being double teamed twice as often, and being able to stop the run better and save his team more points.

In regards to Watt vs. Garrett.. it's Garrett 100%

So Garrett almost gets to the QB more? That’s impressive. I almost win the lottery 3 times a week, hasnt made me rich yet…. Odd.

Watt has 17 sacks and 4 FFs.

You’re a homer.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

Mr. Friscus


Buffalo has bad meaningful losses. Balt has no bad losses or less bad losses and 2 big wins just recently. Buffalo has DAL at home recently only? That matters.

When I compare 2 QB's, at look at who is better at doing their job, which is throw the ball and score points.

Combining Rushing and Passing:
Allen 4,191 yds, 40 TD's
Jackson 4,143 yds, 24 TD's.

One of these things is not like the other. Allen is just better at scoring. Jackson has a top ranked defense that allows him to not be as great of a QB but win .

 

[Mr. Friscus]

So Garrett almost gets to the QB more? That’s impressive. I almost win the lottery 3 times a week, hasnt made me rich yet…. Odd.

Watt has 17 sacks and 4 FFs.

You’re a homer.

I've just watched all the browns games, and have seen Garrett almost single-handedly win multiple games with clutch sacks, FG blocks, forced fumbles, etc. I guess I can't speak for Watt, maybe he's won the Steelers more games. All I know is that Watt isn't as feared as Garrett based on the double coverage rate, and Garrett still has very similar stats despite having to overcome far more than Watt.

 

[Couchpotato]

From NFL.com

Ravens D allowing 15.2 PPG (1st)
Bills D allowing 18.1 PPG (4th)

Ravens PPG 27.8 (4th)
Bills PPG 26.9 (6th)

Pass Yards
Allen 3778 (6th)
Jackson 3357 (15th)

TD Passes
Allen 27 (3rd)
Jackson 19 (15th)

QBR
Allen 71.6 (2nd)
Jackson 63.0 (8th)

Rushing/TD
Allen 413yds, 13 TD
Jackson 786 yds, 5 TD


It seems like Allen is better at throwing for more yards, throwing for more TD's, running for more TD's, and is a better rated QB on a team that has a worse defense than Jackson.

Allen is clearly more valuable to his team, and is a more effective QB than Jackson.

And throwing More picks and fumbling more. He’s lost numerous games for his team games they should have won. Like the Jets, Pats, and Denver. Win 2 of those 3 and they are leading the division. Win one and Allen doesn’t need Lamar to beat the Dolphins to hand him his division.

The Bills have a legit #1 at WR. The Ravens barely have a 2, though Flowers looks very promising, he’s a rookie and just isn’t yet.

The Ravens have lost 2 starting RBs. The entire offense revolves around Jackson.

Remove Jackson and insert league average QB and the Ravens are a 7-8 win team.

Remove Allen from the Bills and replace him with the same QB and they probably win 7-8 games.

What’s the record differential for each team?

Lamar is more important to the Ravens than Allen Is to the Bills. In other words more valuable.

Allen has a very high ceiling, his floor is just too low, and he‘s spent far too much time on the floor this year to be the MVP.

 

[Couchpotato]

I've just watched all the browns games, and have seen Garrett almost single-handedly win multiple games with clutch sacks, FG blocks, forced fumbles, etc. I guess I can't speak for Watt, maybe he's won the Steelers more games. All I know is that Watt isn't as feared as Garrett based on the double coverage rate, and Garrett still has very similar stats despite having to overcome far more than Watt.

I’ve watched both play. Garrett is an exceptional player and he might win DPOY this year. My issue is you acting like he‘s far ahead of the field, because he isn’t, and likely isn’t leading the field at this moment. 2 games to play, either could win it.

 

[MarathonMike]

Josh Allen is not the MVP. His team is barely over .500 and while he’s the reason they win most of the time hes also the reason they lose every time. You can’t throw that many picks some of which are just stupid as shit, and win the MVP.


Lamar Jackson is the MVP. Tyreek if he gets 2k yds should be in the running as should CMC.

Allen has 20 turnovers. He’s not the MVP.

I wouldn't bet a lot of money on that. If he has two strong finishing games, he will be right there in the voting.

 

[Couchpotato]

I wouldn't bet a lot of money on that. If he has two strong finishing games, he will be right there in the voting.

The MVP needs help to win his own division.

 

[Rocko]

The MVP needs help to win his own division.

It’s a team sport.

 

[Couchpotato]

It’s a team sport.

Yeah too bad Allen keeps fucking his.., LOL

 

[MarathonMike]

The MVP needs help to win his own division.

Depends on who the sportswriters pick, who knows what they prioritize for MVP.

 

[Couchpotato]

Depends on who the sportswriters pick, who knows what they prioritize for MVP.

I would hope one of those things is not losing games for your team. Especially against teams with far inferior talent.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

And throwing More picks and fumbling more. He’s lost numerous games for his team games they should have won. Like the Jets, Pats, and Denver. Win 2 of those 3 and they are leading the division. Win one and Allen doesn’t need Lamar to beat the Dolphins to hand him his division.

The Bills have a legit #1 at WR. The Ravens barely have a 2, though Flowers looks very promising, he’s a rookie and just isn’t yet.

The Ravens have lost 2 starting RBs. The entire offense revolves around Jackson.

Remove Jackson and insert league average QB and the Ravens are a 7-8 win team.

Remove Allen from the Bills and replace him with the same QB and they probably win 7-8 games.

What’s the record differential for each team?

Lamar is more important to the Ravens than Allen Is to the Bills. In other words more valuable.

Allen has a very high ceiling, his floor is just too low, and he‘s spent far too much time on the floor this year to be the MVP.

You can't prove any of that, that's all meaningless conjecture. Allen is a better QB who moves the ball more and scores more TD's. He's better at his job. Lamar is very good but can do less and still win.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

I’ve watched both play. Garrett is an exceptional player and he might win DPOY this year. My issue is you acting like he‘s far ahead of the field, because he isn’t, and likely isn’t leading the field at this moment. 2 games to play, either could win it.

I'll agree I was negligent in being so confident.

 

[Couchpotato]

You can't prove any of that, that's all meaningless conjecture. Allen is a better QB who moves the ball more and scores more TD's. He's better at his job. Lamar is very good but can do less and still win.

Allen also loses games. He‘s a turnover machine. A big part of being a QB is not fucking shit up. Allen doesn’t do that very well

 

[Mr. Friscus]

Allen also loses games. He‘s a turnover machine. A big part of being a QB is not fucking shit up. Allen doesn’t do that very well

I agree, but he's only like +7 to +8 on INT's to Jackson while being +16 on TD's. and INT's don't equal points, TD's do.

 

[Couchpotato]

I agree, but he's only like +7 to +8 on INT's to Jackson while being +16 on TD's. and INT's don't equal points, TD's do.

How many teams win games when they turn over the ball numerous times in one game?

Turnovers equal losses.

 

[Mr. Friscus]

How many teams win games when they turn over the ball numerous times in one game?

Turnovers equal losses.

TD's equal wins.

TD's are 100% 6 points. INT's are probably 50% 3 or 6 points for the opposition.

You're trying to simplify it, but Josh is far more effective at scoring points than Jackson is, despite the points off turnovers.

 

[Couchpotato]

TD's equal wins.

TD's are 100% 6 points. INT's are probably 50% 3 or 6 points for the opposition.

You're trying to simplify it, but Josh is far more effective at scoring points than Jackson is, despite the points off turnovers.

Odd that his team loses so much more then isnt it.,,,

 

[MarathonMike]

I would hope one of those things is not losing games for your team. Especially against teams with far inferior talent

A lot can be forgiven if you finish strong with big numbers. We'll see.

 

[Couchpotato]

TD's equal wins.

TD's are 100% 6 points. INT's are probably 50% 3 or 6 points for the opposition.

You're trying to simplify it, but Josh is far more effective at scoring points than Jackson is, despite the points off turnovers.

How Turnover Margin Affects NFL Betting in 2023

The turnover margin in the NFL has a strong correlation with win probability and is also significant on a season-by-season basis.

www.covers.com

In a study conducted by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, it was found that a team that wins the turnover margin in a game wins 69.6 percent of the time. To demonstrate the relative strength of turnover influence, home teams won “just” 57.2 percent of all games in the same sample. The effect is compounding as well, as teams that won the turnover margin by two or more won 83.9 percent of the time and 90.7 percent of the time when winning the margin by three or more.

In case youre bad at math that means when you turn the ball over multiple times in games your chances of winning decrease exponentially.