nat4900
Diamond Member
- Mar 3, 2015
- 42,021
- 5,965
Here's an interesting bit of historical factoid that a recent article has reminded us.....An instructive read
First let me state that it is highly doubtful that Trump would last until 2020, never mind running again for president.
With that in mind, first consider that very,very seldom does a party manage to hold the WH for THREE consecutive terms and the (in my personal opinion) the poor choice of Hillary Clinton as the Dem candidate, certainly contributed to a continuation of that pattern.
BUT, the good news that should have republicans a bit more than a little worried:
If Democrats had to win only one of the two elections, 2020 is by far the more important. That’s because the elections in every zero-year coincide with the Census: those who win the governorships and legislatures in the zero year have control over the district lines redrawn after the Census.
The biggest reason Democrats continue to lose the House despite winning more overall votes is that the Republican surge in 2010 allowed them to gerrymander Congressional and legislative district lines all around the country. A Democratic wave in 2020 would allow Democrats to redraw those lines after an even more favorable census, potentially giving them a decade of dominance similar to that held by Republicans today.
Here's one silver lining to Trump’s win
The above, coupled with the changing demographics in states like Texas, Arizona and Colorado (and even Oklahoma) where Latinos are increasingly stepping up to register to vote, should be a very sobering reality for the GOP.
Of course, we ALSO have to fully consider the failure that is the Trump administration and the current do-nothing republican dominated Congress.
First let me state that it is highly doubtful that Trump would last until 2020, never mind running again for president.
With that in mind, first consider that very,very seldom does a party manage to hold the WH for THREE consecutive terms and the (in my personal opinion) the poor choice of Hillary Clinton as the Dem candidate, certainly contributed to a continuation of that pattern.
BUT, the good news that should have republicans a bit more than a little worried:
If Democrats had to win only one of the two elections, 2020 is by far the more important. That’s because the elections in every zero-year coincide with the Census: those who win the governorships and legislatures in the zero year have control over the district lines redrawn after the Census.
The biggest reason Democrats continue to lose the House despite winning more overall votes is that the Republican surge in 2010 allowed them to gerrymander Congressional and legislative district lines all around the country. A Democratic wave in 2020 would allow Democrats to redraw those lines after an even more favorable census, potentially giving them a decade of dominance similar to that held by Republicans today.
Here's one silver lining to Trump’s win
The above, coupled with the changing demographics in states like Texas, Arizona and Colorado (and even Oklahoma) where Latinos are increasingly stepping up to register to vote, should be a very sobering reality for the GOP.
Of course, we ALSO have to fully consider the failure that is the Trump administration and the current do-nothing republican dominated Congress.