Battle of Bakhmud won by Russia

[badger2]

Apparently @BenDoBrown has been eliminated. The Crimean video is here:

https://twitter.com.archtim1/status/1631901857617522689?cxt=HHwWgsC9ufyF16UtAAAA

 

[badger2]

https://twitter.com/archtim1

 

[gipper]

I have contradictory info, lol. Ukraine doesn't have near that many hospital beds, and we would know if there were large numbers of Ukrainian casualties in hospitals outside of Ukraine.

I don't have good estimates. The Norwegian Defense Minister recently said 180K casualties on the Russian side and 100K on the Ukrainian side plus 30K civilians. That sounds in the ball park to me.

Anecdotal evidence says Ukraine's WIA/KIA is better than Russia's- better battlefield medicine, and better evacuation of the wounded.

I doubt they’re in beds.

Yeah everything in Ukraine is better than Russia. Lol. You’ll believe anything if you believe the bs from our corrupt lying media.

 

[gipper]

One can play numbers all day . I believe 300k is low and possibly substantially .
Probably more useful are combatant reports -- see Kyiv Independent for example .

The fact that the Nazis are now recruiting youngsters down to the age of 16 tells you a great deal .
Let alone Zelenskyy's begging bowl hysteria tours .

And the Russians have between 300k and even 500k ready to come in from southern Russia ,Donbas and even Belarus .
Kyiv's cupboard is bare and they are now dependent on re-registered NATO forces acting as mercenaries plus others flown in by the US from the ME mainly.
On present dynamics there is zero chance of Kyiv "winning "

I tend to agree with you, yet the entire western establishment media claims the opposite.

We live in strange times.

 

[toomuchtime_]

They're now trenching Crimean beaches so the plan to encircle Bakhmut is probably taken for granted:

https://twitter.com/BendDoBrown/status//163169388507381761

Just like the Russians took a three day war for granted. Over the weekend a Ukrainian couter offensive beat the Russians back and ended their hope of encircling Ukrainian forces, and the decision was made to reinforce the Ukrainian positions because the Russians were losing such extraordinary numbers of soldiers at Bakhmut .

Ukrainian forces conduct counteroffensive near Bakhmut, NYT reports

As Russia has been attempting to seize Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, for more than seven months, Ukrainian forces have conducted a counteroffensive in the area over the last weekend, The New York Times reported March 6.

www.yahoo.com

 

[para bellum]

Yeah everything in Ukraine is better than Russia. Lol. You’ll believe anything if you believe the bs from our corrupt lying media.

I think the Norwegian Defense Minister probably has better information than we do.

I don't follow the media. I don't need talking heads to interpret shit for me.

 

[para bellum]

They're now trenching Crimean beaches so the plan to encircle Bakhmut is probably taken for granted:

https://twitter.com/BendDoBrown/status//163169388507381761

These trenches make no sense whatsoever.

The only thing I can think of, is Russia going to stage an amphibious assault for show? Like some kind of "dry run" for Odesa?

 

[gipper]

I think the Norwegian Defense Minister probably has better information than we do.

I don't follow the media. I don't need talking heads to interpret shit for me.

He does but he can’t be trusted to tell the truth.

 

[toomuchtime_]

These trenches make no sense whatsoever.

The only thing I can think of, is Russia going to stage an amphibious assault for show? Like some kind of "dry run" for Odesa?

Or maybe the Russians are crazy enough to think NATO may attempt an amphibious landing in Crimea.

 

[para bellum]

Or maybe the Russians are crazy enough to think NATO may attempt an amphibious landing in Crimea.

Who knows, it's just really weird. It has to be something for the domestic audience, I have no idea...

 

[luiza]

I tend to agree with you, yet the entire western establishment media claims the opposite.

We live in strange times.

By definition the whole of the MSM will be following the one prescribed narrative, so by definition you will not be receiving the truth from them .

It is widely acknowledged by all serious pundits , commentators and investigators etc that b at M of A provides the most exhaustive and accurate information and his comments section is amazing because some very experienced and respected people are involved, albeit not using their real names .
My team also looks at Russian Defence daily reports , Mossad when they release figures ,plus English language versions of Kyiv and Moscow daily papers .
Then there are individuals like ex General McGregor, Gonzalo Lira, ex spy Scott Ritter etc -- all who can be judged for accuracy based on a full year's reporting .
I would be considerably surprised if my info sources did not add up as being very close to the "truth" .
Or, putting it another way -- as accurate as TitLoser's ( litwin ) posts are complete nonsense and drivel .

 

[Kruska]

So ground forces. Ukraine at the outset had about 145,000-150,000 of the 209K in the ground forces, that does not include Special Forces. Russia's ground forces was 280,000 according to IISS.

Encouraging to see that after your last statement, forwarding that your figures are right and mine are wrong - you have now downgraded your UAF ground-forces guess by 40% and upgraded your RF ground-forces guess by 220%, - keep going you are now on the right track.

Your previous guess, quote: Ukraine had 265,000 soldiers including activated reserves and Russia invaded with only 120,000 soldiers

I had forwarded to you: Ukraine's Army had around 120,000 man-power+ approximately 50,000 activated reserves = total of around 170,000

Since the TDF and the respective law was not around before Feb. 2022 - conscripts of the UAF Army could not be send to the front-line. Minus 25,000. Therefore the total number of UAF ground-forces on Feb. 22nd was around 145,000. - more or less exactly the number that you state now.

Therefore I had decided not to further engage with your guesses - especially after your last forwarding of RF ground-forces having totaled 120,000.

 

[badger2]

Just like the Russians took a three day war for granted. Over the weekend a Ukrainian couter offensive beat the Russians back and ended their hope of encircling Ukrainian forces, and the decision was made to reinforce the Ukrainian positions because the Russians were losing such extraordinary numbers of soldiers at Bakhmut .

Ukrainian forces conduct counteroffensive near Bakhmut, NYT reports

As Russia has been attempting to seize Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, for more than seven months, Ukrainian forces have conducted a counteroffensive in the area over the last weekend, The New York Times reported March 6.

www.yahoo.com

Lira is in Kharkiv.

 

[BlackSand]

.

The people in Moscow found out about the drone strike watching the news and about the same time everyone else did.
I got 2 out 6 numbers correct in the Powerball Lottery one time too ...

.​

 

[toomuchtime_]

Lira is in Kharkiv.

China is proposing a ceasefire, not the West, and Progozhin is saying the shortages of ammunition are so severe that he might have to withdraw from Bakhmut and the whole Russian frontline might collapse and even that Russia might lose the war, so the big question is, what is Lira smoking in Kharkiv and how can I get some of that good stuff?

 

[para bellum]

Your previous guess, quote: Ukraine had 265,000 soldiers including activated reserves and Russia invaded with only 120,000 soldiers

Show me the post where I said that. I put the initial invasion strength at ~180K inclusive. If you limit the number to Russian regular forces, it would be close to 120K. That would not include Rosgvardiya, Chechens, Wagner/Patriot PMC's or L/DPR militias, etc.

I have no idea where you get the 265,000 soldiers...

I had forwarded to you: Ukraine's Army had around 120,000 man-power+ approximately 50,000 activated reserves = total of around 170,000

And I showed you that was wrong. 209K active duty beginning of 2022.

Since the TDF and the respective law was not around before Feb. 2022 - conscripts of the UAF Army could not be send to the front-line. Minus 25,000. Therefore the total number of UAF ground-forces on Feb. 22nd was around 145,000. - more or less exactly the number that you state now.

Therefore I had decided not to further engage with your guesses - especially after your last forwarding of RF ground-forces having totaled 120,000.

I'm going to ignore your rationalizations and makeshift math, thank you.

 

[gipper]

By definition the whole of the MSM will be following the one prescribed narrative, so by definition you will not be receiving the truth from them .

It is widely acknowledged by all serious pundits , commentators and investigators etc that b at M of A provides the most exhaustive and accurate information and his comments section is amazing because some very experienced and respected people are involved, albeit not using their real names .
My team also looks at Russian Defence daily reports , Mossad when they release figures ,plus English language versions of Kyiv and Moscow daily papers .
Then there are individuals like ex General McGregor, Gonzalo Lira, ex spy Scott Ritter etc -- all who can be judged for accuracy based on a full year's reporting .
I would be considerably surprised if my info sources did not add up as being very close to the "truth" .
Or, putting it another way -- as accurate as TitLoser's ( litwin ) posts are complete nonsense and drivel .

Should your sources prove accurate, many Americans are likely to be blindsided when Ukraine is forced to capitulate.

My position has always been to end this horrible unnecessary war as soon as possible. If Russia can get it done quickly, that’s a good thing. However the neocons running the US might be inclined to escalate leading to WWIII, rather than allow Putin to win.

 

[BlackSand]

China is proposing a ceasefire, not the West

.

It doesn't matter ... China needs the US and her Allies to deny peace negotiations.
They can use it to justify support or aggression in the future.

.​

 

[para bellum]

Then there are individuals like ex General McGregor, Gonzalo Lira, ex spy Scott Ritter etc -- all who can be judged for accuracy based on a full year's reporting .

And all 3 of them said Russia would not invade, and then they said Ukraine would only last 3 days, and they've never predicted Ukraine lasting longer than another 2 months. Sometimes Ukraine only has 2 weeks to go. None have ever predicted anything other than Ukraine's imminent collapse.

Sure, let's judge them for accuracy based on their first year of reporting...

 

[Donald H]

Russia is claiming that taking Badmuht will be a big advantage for conducting the war deep into the Ukraine. Others say it's just a symbolic loss for the Ukraine.
Does anyone have any reliable information of the facts?