Deconstructing Polls 538 -- Carson & Trump

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Enough of the lightweight bs posted in politics boards on the horse race. This is about the meat of the elections --- the horse race polls

"What to make of this? Is this real? Does this say more about Trump or Carson? Much of the media is spinning it as the start of Trump’s demise."

hjenten (Harry Enten, senior political writer): I think the first thing we know — clearly — is that the Des Moines Register, Quinnipiac University and any other poll showing Trump not winning are garbage polls. They just have no class.

But if “real” means that Carson would win if the caucuses were today, then yes, it is real.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Reality is just a social construct, man.

hjenten: But this is the first time we can say Trump is definitely trailing in a contest that will be important in three months.

micah: Right. And Carson seems like just the type of candidate who could win Iowa.

natesilver: It’s definitely “real” in the sense that Carson’s lead is too large across too many polls to be a sample-size fluke.

hjenten: Carson has 36 percent of born-again/evangelical support. That looks like Santorum’s support did in 2012 in terms of what is needed to win. Carson is clearly connecting with the more conservative voters out there.

micah: So answer this question: Is this more about Trump or Carson? Or both?

natesilver: Both, but yeah — I think it’s more about Carson. Like Harry said, he looks like he’s winning the Huckabee/Santorum vote, and his profile is similar to a lot of past Iowa winners.

micah: So this seems like a localized Iowa thing and not necessarily evidence that Trump will fade nationally.

natesilver: Not necessarily. But there is an argument that it’s bad news for Trump.

micah: What’s the argument?​

 

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What is the argument?
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?

natesilver: That Iowans are paying more attention to the race than people elsewhere in the country, so they may be early adopters of trends we’ll see elsewhere. In other words, once Trump starts getting Iowa-type scrutiny in other states, he might fade.

hjenten: On average, Trump’s net favorability is +18 percentage points in the last four Iowa polls. That’s basically the same as it was the last time the same four pollsters were in the field (late August/early September), when it was +22. But there’s always been this sort of discord between Trump’s topline (horse race) numbers and his net favorability. We’d have thought, based off his net favorability, that he wouldn’t be leading the horse race.

Carson’s net favorability is +77 points! He’s much better liked. Net favorability isn’t always linked to doing the best in the horse race, but better-liked candidates generally do better. So I’ve always been skeptical of Trump’s numbers.​

 

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Trump is not doing well today. Trump's supporters have been elated over daily polls. What do the polls say today and better -- what are the people who deconstruct the polls saying?