Early Voting Indicates a Trump Win

[TyroneSlothrop]

Clinton Leads by 7 Points in North Carolina Poll
Source: NY Times

A New York Times Upshot/Siena College survey released on Tuesday confirms that Mr. Trump’s standing has deteriorated considerably. Hillary Clinton has a seven-point lead over Mr. Trump in North Carolina, 46 percent to 39 percent, among likely voters in a three-way race including the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.

It’s a big improvement for Mrs. Clinton since September, when the last New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll showed a tied race in the state — as other polls at the time also did. It mirrors a national trend of steady gains for Mrs. Clinton throughout October.

The poll is her best live-interview survey in North Carolina so far this month. In general, it is better to look at an average of polls than any single survey. But the Upshot/Siena poll is hardly alone in suggesting that Mrs. Clinton has an advantage. On average, she has led by three points in North Carolina surveys so far this month.

Mrs. Clinton’s gain came from incremental improvements across nearly every dimension of the survey.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/25/upshot/north-carolina-poll.html

 

[Care4all]

The Democrats are supposed to win Florida and normally the Dems have a huge lead in early voters, but not this election as the Dems are behind in Florida and trailing in other battleground states. Early Voting Returns Point to GOP Enthusiasm Advantage

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager admits: ‘We are behind’

Conway is a professional pollster, so maybe she feels uncomfortable calling all her colleagues out for being the incompetent morons that they are, or perhaps she too is fooled by the oversampling being done in favor of the Democrats and genuinely thinks that her man is behind.

Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same? "Why go out and vote Dems? You got it in the bag!" is her implicit message as well and that obviously works to her advantage.

This could be an example of why one should not spin so many lies; your own people run the risk of believing them and it could then come back and bite you in the ass.

Exactly. In the Brexit vote, The remainers thought they had it in the bag and that might have resulted in a lower turnout for them. It's not a very sensible strategy to keep crowing that you've won, rig polls, and to retire for 'rest' periods and barely bother to campaign, as Hillary seems to be doing, at leas as compared to Trump. Plus, I still think their might be a lot of people who aren't interested in being denigrated and demonised, so don't say they are going to vote for Trump.

agree, but there also could be republican never trumpers, who are also ashamed to admit they are voting for Clinton...

Of course you are right, but these are merely guesses based on what little info we have at this time.

I am not sure that there are as many NeverTrumpers now than there are Sanders peeps who cannot pull the lever for Hillary, in fact I think that there are far more Sanders peeps who cannot hold their nose, by maybe a 1 NT to 2 Sanders supporter ratio. I personally have met/know eight Sanders supporters, including myself and six of them are not voting for Hillary, two are voting for Trump.

but do you think these Sanders supporters are lying to pollsters and saying they are voting for clinton? I don't.

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

New Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Attracting Conservatives In the Double Digit Percentile | RedState (RedState.com, Oct. 25, 2016)
A new CNN/ORC poll released today shows an interesting bit of data that should cause the Republican party to sit up and take notice.

Apparently, Trump is so disliked by and large that 17% of the Conservative movement has moved away from him, and has now said that they will be voting for Hillary Clinton instead.

 

[JimBowie1958]

but do you think these Sanders supporters are lying to pollsters and saying they are voting for clinton? I don't.

Not all of them.

I attribute my own experience with Sanders peeps to the fact that they know me and are willing to put up with me, which shifts the data quite a bit.

My point is that I think the NeverTrumpers are a small remnant of what they once were, in part due to all the apologies and efforts by Trump to bring them to him, and Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz as well, but the Sanders folks are not so forgiving and more has been coming out about Hillary's disdain for them and her fraud in regard to the rigged DNC primary process.

 

[Care4all]

but do you think these Sanders supporters are lying to pollsters and saying they are voting for clinton? I don't.

Not all of them.

I attribute my own experience with Sanders peeps to the fact that they know me and are willing to put up with me, which shifts the data quite a bit.

My point is that I think the NeverTrumpers are a small remnant of what they once were, in part due to all the apologies and efforts by Trump to bring them to him, and Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz as well, but the Sanders folks are not so forgiving and more has been coming out about Hillary's disdain for them and her fraud in regard to the rigged DNC primary process.

I think Marc Rubio and ted Cruz when behind the curtain to vote, will NOT vote for Trump and neither will Paul Ryan and a few others saying they support the Republican candidate, but in reality, they don't support Trump and don't want him in as President, they see HARM with him, dumped on the Republican Party...

 

[JimBowie1958]

I think Marc Rubio and ted Cruz when behind the curtain to vote, will NOT vote for Trump and neither will Paul Ryan and a few others saying they support the Republican candidate, but in reality, they don't support Trump and don't want him in as President, they see HARM with him, dumped on the Republican Party...

You may be right; I dont know otherwise.

I do know that Hillary Clinton is a slave to the multinational corporations who could hang her out to dry if they wanted to at any time.

So she will NEVER tell them 'no'.

She cannot become President if this Republic is to remain a nation run by and for the People.

 

[GaryDog]

lol @ this entire thread.

This race is done. The real question is who will have control of the Congress.

 

[bodecea]

The Democrats are supposed to win Florida and normally the Dems have a huge lead in early voters, but not this election as the Dems are behind in Florida and trailing in other battleground states.


Early Voting Returns Point to GOP Enthusiasm Advantage

With almost 1 million votes already cast by mail in Florida by Friday morning, the Republicans are showing a 17,000-person advantage in returns.
...
As of Friday, more than 3 million Americans have voted early or by mail-in ballot. And even in states where Democrats are doing better than Republicans in mail-in ballots, depressed Democratic numbers — as compared to this point in 2012 — tell a story.

“That more registered Democrats have requested ballots and returned them does not signal Democratic victory,” wrote Michael P. McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida and curator of the U.S. Election Project for The Huffington Post. “Iowa Democrats typically do much better than they are currently doing.”

McDonald wrote that as of Oct. 16, requested ballots for Democrats were down 42,397 from a similar point in 2012. President Obama won Iowa in 2012.

The Republicans are also closing in on surpassing their past performances in Iowa early returns. McDonald said the GOP was down 14,099 from their point in 2012 on Oct. 7, but down only 2,221 by Oct. 14.

Ohio is another state in which Democrats typically do better than Republicans in absentee voting. But local Republican officials say their Senate race is also helping the presidential race put GOP voters into the ballot booths.

More than 1.28 million ballots have been requested so far in Ohio. Early voting began Oct. 12.

“Based on what we are seeing, Democrats appear to be cannibalizing their base to vote early,” said Brittany Warner, Ohio Republican Party communications director. “Republicans are seeing high interest so far from newly registered voters and low-propensity Republican voters. Democrats appear to have stronger numbers for in-person [early] voting — but that’s always the case, as our base is typically [made up of] Election Day voters.”

I'm surprised they announce results before Election Day......wasn't there a big deal about holding results on the Right Coast because of people still voting on the Left Coast? Same thing?

 

[JimBowie1958]

lol @ this entire thread.

This race is done. The real question is who will have control of the Congress.

How does it feel to be a drooling idiot?

You might write a book on life as a drooling moron and see if it sells. A lot of people are curious about what life as a below 60 IQ monkey would be like.

Good luck!

 

[saintmichaeldefendthem]

but do you think these Sanders supporters are lying to pollsters and saying they are voting for clinton? I don't.

Not all of them.

I attribute my own experience with Sanders peeps to the fact that they know me and are willing to put up with me, which shifts the data quite a bit.

My point is that I think the NeverTrumpers are a small remnant of what they once were, in part due to all the apologies and efforts by Trump to bring them to him, and Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz as well, but the Sanders folks are not so forgiving and more has been coming out about Hillary's disdain for them and her fraud in regard to the rigged DNC primary process.

I think Marc Rubio and ted Cruz when behind the curtain to vote, will NOT vote for Trump and neither will Paul Ryan and a few others saying they support the Republican candidate, but in reality, they don't support Trump and don't want him in as President, they see HARM with him, dumped on the Republican Party...

I think they really are just that petty. They'll screw the country because they don't like Big League because he insulted them and won the primaries and they didn't. They think Hillary should win and the leftist hacks she'll appoint to the Supreme Court.

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Minnesota: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%, Johnson 6% (Mason Dixon)

North Carolina: Clinton 46%, Trump 39%, Johnson 8% (NYT/Siena)

Michigan: Clinton 49%, Trump 41%, Johnson 3% (Mitchell Research)

 

[bodecea]

I think Marc Rubio and ted Cruz when behind the curtain to vote, will NOT vote for Trump and neither will Paul Ryan and a few others saying they support the Republican candidate, but in reality, they don't support Trump and don't want him in as President, they see HARM with him, dumped on the Republican Party...

You may be right; I dont know otherwise.

I do know that Hillary Clinton is a slave to the multinational corporations who could hang her out to dry if they wanted to at any time.

So she will NEVER tell them 'no'.

She cannot become President if this Republic is to remain a nation run by and for the People.

"She cannot become President".....um, yes she can...with the Popular vote AND the Electoral College.

 

[bodecea]

Er, no.

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Democrats are running up large leads already during early voting. Among those who say they've already voted, 63% say they cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton to only 37% for Donald Trump. Interestingly, less than half of a percent say they voted for Gary Johnson, which could be a sign that he won't end up getting that much more support than a normal third party candidate. The big Democratic advantage holds down ballot as well. Roy Cooper leads Pat McCrory 61-33 for Governor among those who have already voted, with Libertarian Lon Cecil at 1%. And Deborah Ross leads Richard Burr 52-34 for Senate, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 7% among those who say they have already cast their ballots.​

Democrats Leading Big in NC Early Voting

"PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Democrats are running up large leads already during early voting. Among those who say they've already voted, 63% say they cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton to only 37% for Donald Trump."

Most Trump voters probably going to turn up in person on the day of the election, the Hillary voters most might have already voted before the day of the election then, and this early lead can very easily be overcome of course in that situation.

People say things to avoid being abused by leftists but in the voting booth maybe they do the right thing as Tilly pointed out above.

My goodness! Those meany Leftists. And these are the people who will start a 2nd American Revolution against Clinton's tyranny? Really?

 

[Care4all]

I think Marc Rubio and ted Cruz when behind the curtain to vote, will NOT vote for Trump and neither will Paul Ryan and a few others saying they support the Republican candidate, but in reality, they don't support Trump and don't want him in as President, they see HARM with him, dumped on the Republican Party...

You may be right; I dont know otherwise.

I do know that Hillary Clinton is a slave to the multinational corporations who could hang her out to dry if they wanted to at any time.

So she will NEVER tell them 'no'.

She cannot become President if this Republic is to remain a nation run by and for the People.

if the people, vote her in, then IT IS run by them....they chose her to run it for them.

 

[Toro]

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager admits: ‘We are behind’

Conway is a professional pollster, so maybe she feels uncomfortable calling all her colleagues out for being the incompetent morons that they are, or perhaps she too is fooled by the oversampling being done in favor of the Democrats and genuinely thinks that her man is behind.

Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same? "Why go out and vote Dems? You got it in the bag!" is her implicit message as well and that obviously works to her advantage.

This could be an example of why one should not spin so many lies; your own people run the risk of believing them and it could then come back and bite you in the ass.

Exactly. In the Brexit vote, The remainers thought they had it in the bag and that might have resulted in a lower turnout for them. It's not a very sensible strategy to keep crowing that you've won, rig polls, and to retire for 'rest' periods and barely bother to campaign, as Hillary seems to be doing, at leas as compared to Trump. Plus, I still think their might be a lot of people who aren't interested in being denigrated and demonised, so don't say they are going to vote for Trump.

agree, but there also could be republican never trumpers, who are also ashamed to admit they are voting for Clinton...

Of course you are right, but these are merely guesses based on what little info we have at this time.

I am not sure that there are as many NeverTrumpers now than there are Sanders peeps who cannot pull the lever for Hillary, in fact I think that there are far more Sanders peeps who cannot hold their nose, by maybe a 1 NT to 2 Sanders supporter ratio. I personally have met/know eight Sanders supporters, including myself and six of them are not voting for Hillary, two are voting for Trump.

but do you think these Sanders supporters are lying to pollsters and saying they are voting for clinton? I don't.

Polls indicate that Hillary is gaining more support from Democrats who didn't vote for her in the primaries than Trump is from Republicans who didn't vote for him.

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Trump supporters are the moral equivalent of scatological spots in a 1960 s Interstate Highway bathroom off Amarillo Texas...Sincerely Tyrone

 

[LoneLaugher]

I don't know about any other State but Trump is doing damned well down here in Florida.

How would you possibly know that?

Google is your friend.

CONFIRMED: Early Voting Data Shows Trump Lead - Ignore Trolls Who Say Otherwise

Early Voting In Florida Shows Trump Winning Election By Landslide

Will this hold up come election day?? Won't know that till Nov. 9th.

Not votes. Not votes. No votes have been counted. Stop being a moron.

You understand that they're going off of the party affiliation of the ballots turned in, right?

I know what they are doing. No votes have been counted.

And...Trump just said yesterday that he's winning. Humility my ass.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I think Marc Rubio and ted Cruz when behind the curtain to vote, will NOT vote for Trump and neither will Paul Ryan and a few others saying they support the Republican candidate, but in reality, they don't support Trump and don't want him in as President, they see HARM with him, dumped on the Republican Party...

You may be right; I dont know otherwise.

I do know that Hillary Clinton is a slave to the multinational corporations who could hang her out to dry if they wanted to at any time.

So she will NEVER tell them 'no'.

She cannot become President if this Republic is to remain a nation run by and for the People.

if the people, vote her in, then IT IS run by them....they chose her to run it for them.

Thats like saying that "the old retired couple really did want to put their house up as collateral for that aluminum siding."

Come on, C4A, you are not that stupid. A fraudulent offer is not binding.

We can survive four years of Hillary and the following President can clean up much of her mess after her, but I dont think it will come to that.

Why?

The ACA is blowing up as we speak, and it will turn Floriduh and many other swing states to Trump.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I think Marc Rubio and ted Cruz when behind the curtain to vote, will NOT vote for Trump and neither will Paul Ryan and a few others saying they support the Republican candidate, but in reality, they don't support Trump and don't want him in as President, they see HARM with him, dumped on the Republican Party...

You may be right; I dont know otherwise.

I do know that Hillary Clinton is a slave to the multinational corporations who could hang her out to dry if they wanted to at any time.

So she will NEVER tell them 'no'.

She cannot become President if this Republic is to remain a nation run by and for the People.

if the people, vote her in, then IT IS run by them....they chose her to run it for them.

Thats like saying that "the old retired couple really did want to put their house up as collateral for that aluminum siding."

Come on, C4A, you are not that stupid. A fraudulent offer is not binding.

We can survive four years of Hillary and the following President can clean up much of her mess after her, but I dont think it will come to that.

Why?

The ACA is blowing up as we speak, and it will turn Floriduh and many other swing states to Trump.

The ACA is not blowing up.

 

[saintmichaeldefendthem]

I don't know about any other State but Trump is doing damned well down here in Florida.

How would you possibly know that?

Google is your friend.

CONFIRMED: Early Voting Data Shows Trump Lead - Ignore Trolls Who Say Otherwise

Early Voting In Florida Shows Trump Winning Election By Landslide

Will this hold up come election day?? Won't know that till Nov. 9th.

Not votes. Not votes. No votes have been counted. Stop being a moron.

You understand that they're going off of the party affiliation of the ballots turned in, right?

I know what they are doing. No votes have been counted.

And...Trump just said yesterday that he's winning. Humility my ass.

I said he needs humility. Read.