Early Voting Indicates a Trump Win

[Toro]

FTR, one can see the Florida vote totals here.

Statistics - County Vote-by-Mail and Early Voting Reports

As of this morning, Trump is leading Hillary 653,913 to 637,641. Those are actual mail-in and early votes. Remember though, Republicans usually lead in mail-in ballots. And Trump is leading by 3% in mail-in ballots, which probably isn't high enough for him. Democrats lead in ballots not yet returned.

 

[Toro]

More.

Mail-in absentee ballot voting was once a Republican strength thanks to the party’s organization and years of conditioning its members to vote by mail. But this year, Democrats are showing signs of catching up.

As of Monday morning, Florida Republicans had cast fewer than 42 percent of the more than 1.2 million absentee ballots. Democrats had cast 40 percent. Though that 1.7 percentage point lead is in the GOP’s favor, it’s greatly reduced since the same period in 2012, when Republican ballots outpaced Democrats’ by 5 points. ...

At one point last week, Democrats briefly overtook Republicans in absentee ballots cast, marking the first time Democrats have ever caught Republicans in pre-Election Day ballots before in-person early voting begins.​

Florida spirals away from Trump

 

[L.K.Eder]

FTR, one can see the Florida vote totals here.

Statistics - County Vote-by-Mail and Early Voting Reports

As of this morning, Trump is leading Hillary 653,913 to 637,641. Those are actual mail-in and early votes. Remember though, Republicans usually lead in mail-in ballots. And Trump is leading by 3% in mail-in ballots, which probably isn't high enough for him. Democrats lead in ballots not yet returned.

trump is not leading. you cannot know how many votes returned by r are actual votes for trump. the same goes for all votes, of course.

 

[dannyboys]

The Democrats are supposed to win Florida and normally the Dems have a huge lead in early voters, but not this election as the Dems are behind in Florida and trailing in other battleground states. Early Voting Returns Point to GOP Enthusiasm Advantage

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager admits: ‘We are behind’

Conway is a professional pollster, so maybe she feels uncomfortable calling all her colleagues out for being the incompetent morons that they are, or perhaps she too is fooled by the oversampling being done in favor of the Democrats and genuinely thinks that her man is behind.

Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same? "Why go out and vote Dems? You got it in the bag!" is her implicit message as well and that obviously works to her advantage.

This could be an example of why one should not spin so many lies; your own people run the risk of believing them and it could then come back and bite you in the ass.

Conway is 'crazy like a fox'.
Which is the politically more intelligent thing to do? "Yes were are currently behind Hillary by a couple of points. That means it's extra important for all the Trump supporters to turn out and vote".
OR: "Mr.Trump is going to win in a landslide!".
Notice the stupid LIB MSM bobble heads are saying: "Hillary is 100% guaranteed to win. (So anyone who was wondering whether to stand in line for a couple of hours to vote for Hillary don't have to bother")

 

[NoNukes]

Early voting indicates Republicans vote early. You have no idea who they voted for.

 

[dannyboys]

Er, no.

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Democrats are running up large leads already during early voting. Among those who say they've already voted, 63% say they cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton to only 37% for Donald Trump. Interestingly, less than half of a percent say they voted for Gary Johnson, which could be a sign that he won't end up getting that much more support than a normal third party candidate. The big Democratic advantage holds down ballot as well. Roy Cooper leads Pat McCrory 61-33 for Governor among those who have already voted, with Libertarian Lon Cecil at 1%. And Deborah Ross leads Richard Burr 52-34 for Senate, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 7% among those who say they have already cast their ballots.​

Democrats Leading Big in NC Early Voting

Well at least Hillary did one intelligent thing in the past four decades. She choose Kaine as running mate.
I promise you all at least 90% of all the people who turned up this Kaine rally are going to vote for Hillary-Kaine!
WOW! Tim Kaine Holds Rally and ONLY 30 PEOPLE Show Up!

 

[Faun]

The Democrats are supposed to win Florida and normally the Dems have a huge lead in early voters, but not this election as the Dems are behind in Florida and trailing in other battleground states.


Early Voting Returns Point to GOP Enthusiasm Advantage

With almost 1 million votes already cast by mail in Florida by Friday morning, the Republicans are showing a 17,000-person advantage in returns.
...
As of Friday, more than 3 million Americans have voted early or by mail-in ballot. And even in states where Democrats are doing better than Republicans in mail-in ballots, depressed Democratic numbers — as compared to this point in 2012 — tell a story.

“That more registered Democrats have requested ballots and returned them does not signal Democratic victory,” wrote Michael P. McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida and curator of the U.S. Election Project for The Huffington Post. “Iowa Democrats typically do much better than they are currently doing.”

McDonald wrote that as of Oct. 16, requested ballots for Democrats were down 42,397 from a similar point in 2012. President Obama won Iowa in 2012.

The Republicans are also closing in on surpassing their past performances in Iowa early returns. McDonald said the GOP was down 14,099 from their point in 2012 on Oct. 7, but down only 2,221 by Oct. 14.

Ohio is another state in which Democrats typically do better than Republicans in absentee voting. But local Republican officials say their Senate race is also helping the presidential race put GOP voters into the ballot booths.

More than 1.28 million ballots have been requested so far in Ohio. Early voting began Oct. 12.

“Based on what we are seeing, Democrats appear to be cannibalizing their base to vote early,” said Brittany Warner, Ohio Republican Party communications director. “Republicans are seeing high interest so far from newly registered voters and low-propensity Republican voters. Democrats appear to have stronger numbers for in-person [early] voting — but that’s always the case, as our base is typically [made up of] Election Day voters.”

You're reading into that wrong. It shows more Republicans than Democrats have voted by absentee ballot so far. But that's normal as they typically vote by absentee ballot at a greater frequency than Democrats.

The real story is this election, Democrats are voting more by absentee ballot than they have in the past...

Early ballots and voter-registration numbers show Democrats surging in Florida

10/14/16

MIAMI — Approximately 311,000 Floridians cast absentee ballots by Friday morning in the nation’s biggest battleground state, and the numbers are increasingly moving in favor of Democrats and their White House nominee, Hillary Clinton.

Compared to the day before and this point four years ago, Democrats are catching up to Republicans in the number of voted absentee ballots — a part of the election that the Florida GOP used to own. But now, Republicans are ahead of Democrats by just 1.9 percentage points (about 42-40 percent), compared with a 3 percent advantage held Thursday by the GOP and a 3.9-point Republican advantage at this point relative to Election Day in 2012, state elections data shows.

At the same time, since the 2012 presidential election, the Florida Democratic Party has blown away the Republican Party of Florida in submitting new voter-registration forms. Democrats have submitted 177,000 and Republicans fewer than 13,000 registration forms collected, according to an analysis of Florida Division of Elections data made by University of Florida political science professor Daniel A. Smith.​

What the article doesn't say is WHY so many more Democrats are blowing Republicans away ....

One reason is because of changes to Florida laws, absentee ballots were not automatically mailed out to voters this year. Voters had to contact the state, either by phone or electronically, and request a ballot. I of know this because my wife and I volunteered for the Hillary campaign to call registered Democrats and inform them they needed to request an absentee ballot. I, among other volunteers, personally provided all the necessary information to obtain an absentee ballot to anyone who answered the phone and said they were planning on voting for Hillary.

It takes a village to elect a president.

 

[guno]

our choices stink

Only if you don't give a rat's ass if America survives or not.

America will be great for those who aren't afraid , bitter and fearful of a diverse population,

 

[LoneLaugher]

I don't know about any other State but Trump is doing damned well down here in Florida.

How would you possibly know that?

Google is your friend.

CONFIRMED: Early Voting Data Shows Trump Lead - Ignore Trolls Who Say Otherwise

Early Voting In Florida Shows Trump Winning Election By Landslide

Will this hold up come election day?? Won't know that till Nov. 9th.

Not votes. Not votes. No votes have been counted. Stop being a moron.

 

[saintmichaeldefendthem]

The Democrats are supposed to win Florida and normally the Dems have a huge lead in early voters, but not this election as the Dems are behind in Florida and trailing in other battleground states. Early Voting Returns Point to GOP Enthusiasm Advantage

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager admits: ‘We are behind’

Conway is a professional pollster, so maybe she feels uncomfortable calling all her colleagues out for being the incompetent morons that they are, or perhaps she too is fooled by the oversampling being done in favor of the Democrats and genuinely thinks that her man is behind.

Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same? "Why go out and vote Dems? You got it in the bag!" is her implicit message as well and that obviously works to her advantage.

This could be an example of why one should not spin so many lies; your own people run the risk of believing them and it could then come back and bite you in the ass.

Conway is 'crazy like a fox'.
Which is the politically more intelligent thing to do? "Yes were are currently behind Hillary by a couple of points. That means it's extra important for all the Trump supporters to turn out and vote".
OR: "Mr.Trump is going to win in a landslide!".
Notice the stupid LIB MSM bobble heads are saying: "Hillary is 100% guaranteed to win. (So anyone who was wondering whether to stand in line for a couple of hours to vote for Hillary don't have to bother")

It's good that Trump's the underdog. The man needs to learn a little humility.

 

[saintmichaeldefendthem]

I don't know about any other State but Trump is doing damned well down here in Florida.

How would you possibly know that?

Google is your friend.

CONFIRMED: Early Voting Data Shows Trump Lead - Ignore Trolls Who Say Otherwise

Early Voting In Florida Shows Trump Winning Election By Landslide

Will this hold up come election day?? Won't know that till Nov. 9th.

Not votes. Not votes. No votes have been counted. Stop being a moron.

You understand that they're going off of the party affiliation of the ballots turned in, right?

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Oh my god now Republican kids are saying Santa Claus Naughty Nice list is rigged against them ...

 

[SAYIT]

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

...Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same?

...Which is the politically more intelligent thing to do? "Yes were are currently behind Hillary by a couple of points. That means it's extra important for all the Trump supporters to turn out and vote"...

And I thought this was the "no-spin" zone. If Conway had claimed Trump is leading, you'd be doing your happy dance. As she has admitted he is losing (and possibly by more than she cares to say), you find her to be "crazy like a fox."

Methinks you Trumpettes are whistling past the graveyard.

And get this: just the idea of listening to her voice for the next 4-8 years is enough to my head explode. The reality of it will be much, much worse (but the Repubs had to nominate a fookin' BOZO).

 

[SAYIT]

It's good that Trump's the underdog. The man needs to learn a little humility.

For that to happen he'd have to accept that he is currently behind and that his inevitable November trouncing will be the legit voice of the people. I suspect he would accept neither. Instead he will sack Conway and scream about some evil conspiracy to defraud him of his throne. His rabid minions will, of course, be screaming with him.

 

[dannyboys]

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

...Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same?

...Which is the politically more intelligent thing to do? "Yes were are currently behind Hillary by a couple of points. That means it's extra important for all the Trump supporters to turn out and vote"...

And I thought this was the "no-spin" zone. If Conway had claimed Trump is leading, you'd be doing your happy dance. As she has admitted he is losing (and possibly by more than she cares to say), you find her to be "crazy like a fox."

Methinks you Trumpettes are whistling past the graveyard.

And get this: just the idea of listening to her voice for the next 4-8 years is enough to my head explode. The reality of it will be much, much worse (but the Repubs had to nominate a fookin' BOZO).

As usual you're full of shit!
I NEVER quote ANY polls!
I don't believe in any of them.
The entire polling methodology is flawed.
I can conduct a 'poll' today and shows that "of the people that were sampled 100% of them believe if they eat dog shit every morning they will live forever"!
The only 'poll' that is always 100% correct every time is conducted in the election booth.
I believe the US is about to have it's 'BREXIT' moment in history.
We'll see soon.

 

[Toro]

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

...Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same?

...Which is the politically more intelligent thing to do? "Yes were are currently behind Hillary by a couple of points. That means it's extra important for all the Trump supporters to turn out and vote"...

And I thought this was the "no-spin" zone. If Conway had claimed Trump is leading, you'd be doing your happy dance. As she has admitted he is losing (and possibly by more than she cares to say), you find her to be "crazy like a fox."

Methinks you Trumpettes are whistling past the graveyard.

And get this: just the idea of listening to her voice for the next 4-8 years is enough to my head explode. The reality of it will be much, much worse (but the Repubs had to nominate a fookin' BOZO).

As usual you're full of shit!
I NEVER quote ANY polls!
I don't believe in any of them.
The entire polling methodology is flawed.
I can conduct a 'poll' today and shows that "of the people that were sampled 100% of them believe if they eat dog shit every morning they will live forever"!
.

Those people would probably be Orange Jesus worshippers.

 

[Care4all]

The Democrats are supposed to win Florida and normally the Dems have a huge lead in early voters, but not this election as the Dems are behind in Florida and trailing in other battleground states. Early Voting Returns Point to GOP Enthusiasm Advantage

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager admits: ‘We are behind’

Conway is a professional pollster, so maybe she feels uncomfortable calling all her colleagues out for being the incompetent morons that they are, or perhaps she too is fooled by the oversampling being done in favor of the Democrats and genuinely thinks that her man is behind.

Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same? "Why go out and vote Dems? You got it in the bag!" is her implicit message as well and that obviously works to her advantage.

This could be an example of why one should not spin so many lies; your own people run the risk of believing them and it could then come back and bite you in the ass.

Exactly. In the Brexit vote, The remainers thought they had it in the bag and that might have resulted in a lower turnout for them. It's not a very sensible strategy to keep crowing that you've won, rig polls, and to retire for 'rest' periods and barely bother to campaign, as Hillary seems to be doing, at leas as compared to Trump. Plus, I still think their might be a lot of people who aren't interested in being denigrated and demonised, so don't say they are going to vote for Trump.

agree, but there also could be republican never trumpers, who are also ashamed to admit they are voting for Clinton...

 

[Faun]

I don't know about any other State but Trump is doing damned well down here in Florida.

How would you possibly know that?

Google is your friend.

CONFIRMED: Early Voting Data Shows Trump Lead - Ignore Trolls Who Say Otherwise

Early Voting In Florida Shows Trump Winning Election By Landslide

Will this hold up come election day?? Won't know that till Nov. 9th.

Not votes. Not votes. No votes have been counted. Stop being a moron.

You understand that they're going off of the party affiliation of the ballots turned in, right?

How does an envelope identify party affiliation?

 

[JimBowie1958]

The Democrats are supposed to win Florida and normally the Dems have a huge lead in early voters, but not this election as the Dems are behind in Florida and trailing in other battleground states. Early Voting Returns Point to GOP Enthusiasm Advantage

So why would Trump's campaign manager say that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton? While I admit to having no preference - our choices stink - what would make Conway say such a thing?

MIAMI — Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, a longtime Republican pollster, admitted Sunday that her candidate is currently losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager admits: ‘We are behind’

Conway is a professional pollster, so maybe she feels uncomfortable calling all her colleagues out for being the incompetent morons that they are, or perhaps she too is fooled by the oversampling being done in favor of the Democrats and genuinely thinks that her man is behind.

Most likely though she has her own internal polling showing Trump slightly winning a close race and she wants to push Trumpers to go out and vote in a close election while not galvanizing the Dems to do the same? "Why go out and vote Dems? You got it in the bag!" is her implicit message as well and that obviously works to her advantage.

This could be an example of why one should not spin so many lies; your own people run the risk of believing them and it could then come back and bite you in the ass.

Exactly. In the Brexit vote, The remainers thought they had it in the bag and that might have resulted in a lower turnout for them. It's not a very sensible strategy to keep crowing that you've won, rig polls, and to retire for 'rest' periods and barely bother to campaign, as Hillary seems to be doing, at leas as compared to Trump. Plus, I still think their might be a lot of people who aren't interested in being denigrated and demonised, so don't say they are going to vote for Trump.

agree, but there also could be republican never trumpers, who are also ashamed to admit they are voting for Clinton...

Of course you are right, but these are merely guesses based on what little info we have at this time.

I am not sure that there are as many NeverTrumpers now than there are Sanders peeps who cannot pull the lever for Hillary, in fact I think that there are far more Sanders peeps who cannot hold their nose, by maybe a 1 NT to 2 Sanders supporter ratio. I personally have met/know eight Sanders supporters, including myself and six of them are not voting for Hillary, two are voting for Trump.

 

[Care4all]

I don't know about any other State but Trump is doing damned well down here in Florida.

How would you possibly know that?

Google is your friend.

CONFIRMED: Early Voting Data Shows Trump Lead - Ignore Trolls Who Say Otherwise

Early Voting In Florida Shows Trump Winning Election By Landslide

Will this hold up come election day?? Won't know that till Nov. 9th.

Not votes. Not votes. No votes have been counted. Stop being a moron.

You understand that they're going off of the party affiliation of the ballots turned in, right?

How does an envelope identify party affiliation?

Well, the Signature is checked on the envelope against the voting Roster and then the voting precinct for the absentee voter is notified and their names are removed from the in person voting roster there, so that they do not vote twice, absentee and in person.

Also, when these names are checked against the absentee ballot 'sent out list', it states their Party affiliation if they have one.