Global Warming Actually Still Accelerating - no "lull"

[westwall]

You seem to change your story daily.

What do you believe?

1) that burning fossil fuels doesn't produce CO2?

2) that CO2 doesn't end up in the atmosphere?

3) that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas?

4) that the earth hasn't been warmed by greenhouse gasses since the beginning?

5) that the atmospheric concentration of GHGs hasn't risen in proportion to fossil fuel use.

6) that restricting energy out of the earth system by redirecting it back to earth does not create energy imbalance?

7) that weather is not the process of the earth dealing with energy imbalance either locally or globally?

Tell us what you believe and what evidence supports that.

The deluded leading the blind! The only people to have changed their story is you fraudsters! Global Warming.... gave way to Climate Change....gave way to Global Climate Disruption.....gave way to Biodiversity Attack....etc. etc. etc.

You guys have changed your story so many times no one even knows what you are talking about anymore....much less YOU!

No, you have changed our story many times. Because you hate the truth. Your choice but you have to accept being wrong.

Thanks for the religious dogma but once again you are (color me unsurprised) wrong. Science couldn't give a rats ass about "truth". We care about facts. I havn't changed my story one time little fraudster.

Unlike YOU!

 

[Abraham3]

And WHO EXACTLY is responsible for this massive lie? The header says it's UN.. But the text says World Met. Org. We should KNOW who doesn't have a leg to stand on...

You know, they have a forum here on USMB specifically FOR conspiracy theories.

Have you listened to yourself lately?

 

[PMZ]

You fraudsters have had the POLITICIANS and the MEDIA in your pockets for 30 years. It is indicative of the failure of your fraud that even with unrequited support you have still lost the battle for the minds of the people. Science eventually won out over fraud.

What science concluded a 100 years ago is that GHGs warm the planet. And they've explained why. You have nothing that explains anything. Just what you wish was true. When you come up with a theory and data that demonstrates how GHGs do anything other than warm our climate, give us a call.

Wrong again Tojo! What the scientists figured out a century ago is that GHG's EXIST. That's a huge difference from what you claimed.

Better get your facts straight...

As usual, what you wish was true, is nothing more than a political lie to keep Dittoheads barefoot and pregnant.

It's been known for a century that in the absence of GHGs, our long term global average temperature would be just about freezing. Thereby making it much less likely for life to begin here.

 

[flacaltenn]

And WHO EXACTLY is responsible for this massive lie? The header says it's UN.. But the text says World Met. Org. We should KNOW who doesn't have a leg to stand on...

You know, they have a forum here on USMB specifically FOR conspiracy theories.

Have you listened to yourself lately?

The President of the US recently declared that "the world CONTINUES to warm faster than ever predicted"... Is THAT a lie???

Was not the statement I discussed in WMO propaganda above --- ALSO a blatant lie??

When a Senate Panel of warmers blames the death of 19 firefighters in Arizona on CO2 -- are THEY being honest?

What about the misreprentation of TSI in the IPCC report?? Might not be a lie.. But it's close.. At least they have an excuse. It's not in their job description to explore Global Warming --- if it's not attributable to human activity..

It's not about me.. You're ignoring the CONTENT of what I ask you and what I say.. So I'd say the relationship is going on the rocks pretty quickly --- if all you can do is harass my intentions..

 

[PMZ]

What science concluded a 100 years ago is that GHGs warm the planet. And they've explained why. You have nothing that explains anything. Just what you wish was true. When you come up with a theory and data that demonstrates how GHGs do anything other than warm our climate, give us a call.

Wrong again Tojo! What the scientists figured out a century ago is that GHG's EXIST. That's a huge difference from what you claimed.

Better get your facts straight...

As usual, what you wish was true, is nothing more than a political lie to keep Dittoheads barefoot and pregnant.

It's been known for a century that in the absence of GHGs, our long term global average temperature would be just about freezing. Thereby making it much less likely for life to begin here.

And WHO EXACTLY is responsible for this massive lie? The header says it's UN.. But the text says World Met. Org. We should KNOW who doesn't have a leg to stand on...

You know, they have a forum here on USMB specifically FOR conspiracy theories.

Have you listened to yourself lately?

The President of the US recently declared that "the world CONTINUES to warm faster than ever predicted"... Is THAT a lie???

Was not the statement I discussed in WMO propaganda above --- ALSO a blatant lie??

When a Senate Panel of warmers blames the death of 19 firefighters in Arizona on CO2 -- are THEY being honest?

What about the misreprentation of TSI in the IPCC report?? Might not be a lie.. But it's close.. At least they have an excuse. It's not in their job description to explore Global Warming --- if it's not attributable to human activity..

It's not about me.. You're ignoring the CONTENT of what I ask you and what I say.. So I'd say the relationship is going on the rocks pretty quickly --- if all you can do is harass my intentions..

As near as I can tell your intentions are to represent right wing politics in a debate about science.

Science has organized globally around the IPCC to represent the thousands of scientists researching further understanding of the risk that we've put future generations in.

Ring wing cult leaders have organized around media political entertainers to deny science and sow instead doubt among those who don't understand the science.

That’s the side that you've chosen. Don't pretend otherwise.

 

[itfitzme]

Yep, the globe warmed for 80 t0 100 years, then it just stopped for no reason.

 

[RollingThunder]

And WHO EXACTLY is responsible for this massive lie? The header says it's UN.. But the text says World Met. Org. We should KNOW who doesn't have a leg to stand on...

You know, they have a forum here on USMB specifically FOR conspiracy theories.

Have you listened to yourself lately?

The President of the US recently declared that "the world CONTINUES to warm faster than ever predicted"... Is THAT a lie???

No, it wasn't. The world is continuing to warm faster than originally predicted. Global warming continues to accelerate, as many scientific reports cited on this thread confirm.

Was not the statement I discussed in WMO propaganda above --- ALSO a blatant lie??

No, it wasn't. You're just a brainwashed denier cult retard.

When a Senate Panel of warmers blames the death of 19 firefighters in Arizona on CO2 -- are THEY being honest?

The increase in wildfires is scientifically linked to the increased temperatures and the climate changes, like increased dryness, in America's southwest.

Increased extent and intensity of wildfire linked to Global warming

What about the misreprentation of TSI in the IPCC report??

LOLOLOL.....that's all your own insanity and nothing to do with reality.

It's not about me..

Yes it is. You're an insane little denier cult retard who posts nothing but denier cult myths, misinformation, pseudo-science and propaganda.

You're ignoring the CONTENT of what I ask you and what I say..

The "CONTENT" of what you say is the mental equivalent of a pile of rotting pigshit.

 

[flacaltenn]

You know, they have a forum here on USMB specifically FOR conspiracy theories.

Have you listened to yourself lately?

The President of the US recently declared that "the world CONTINUES to warm faster than ever predicted"... Is THAT a lie???

No, it wasn't. The world is continuing to warm faster than originally predicted. Global warming continues to accelerate, as many scientific reports cited on this thread confirm.




No, it wasn't. You're just a brainwashed denier cult retard.




The increase in wildfires is scientifically linked to the increased temperatures and the climate changes, like increased dryness, in America's southwest.

Increased extent and intensity of wildfire linked to Global warming







LOLOLOL.....that's all your own insanity and nothing to do with reality.

It's not about me..

Yes it is. You're an insane little denier cult retard who posts nothing but denier cult myths, misinformation, pseudo-science and propaganda.

You're ignoring the CONTENT of what I ask you and what I say..

The "CONTENT" of what you say is the mental equivalent of a pile of rotting pigshit.

U apologize well for all the liars and the lying.
So how much has the worrld warmed in the last decade PRINCESS?.?.?

 

[ScienceRocks]

There's no data to suggest that it's accelerating but there are scientist wondering why it is slowing.

Hansen for one...Aerosals and oceanic movement of water are two theories.

 

[PMZ]

There's no data to suggest that it's accelerating but there are scientist wondering why it is slowing.

Hansen for one...Aerosals and oceanic movement of water are two theories.

The warming hasn't slowed at all. What's constant lately is the climate average temperature over land. What's growing at an increasing rate is ocean heat content.

There is no model other than AGW that predicts how the earth reacts to a surplus of energy, due to a reduction in outgoing energy and addition of that same energy to earth's incoming energy.

But AGW says energy balance must and will be restored by heating of earth's land, water, ice, and atmospheric masses. The dynamics of that transition are yet to be determined.

When it can be modeled it will be in the form of a long term weather forecast.

 

[westwall]

You know, they have a forum here on USMB specifically FOR conspiracy theories.

Have you listened to yourself lately?

The President of the US recently declared that "the world CONTINUES to warm faster than ever predicted"... Is THAT a lie???

No, it wasn't. The world is continuing to warm faster than originally predicted. Global warming continues to accelerate, as many scientific reports cited on this thread confirm.




No, it wasn't. You're just a brainwashed denier cult retard.




The increase in wildfires is scientifically linked to the increased temperatures and the climate changes, like increased dryness, in America's southwest.

Increased extent and intensity of wildfire linked to Global warming







LOLOLOL.....that's all your own insanity and nothing to do with reality.

It's not about me..

Yes it is. You're an insane little denier cult retard who posts nothing but denier cult myths, misinformation, pseudo-science and propaganda.

You're ignoring the CONTENT of what I ask you and what I say..

The "CONTENT" of what you say is the mental equivalent of a pile of rotting pigshit.

Yes, the fraudsters try and link every single thing to "global warming" That IS their mantra.
Sadly for them the people aren't as stupid as they thought and are pretty much ignoring them now...


And yes! Looky who the link is! It's Indybay a one world collectivist organization...why am I not surprised....

 

[westwall]

There's no data to suggest that it's accelerating but there are scientist wondering why it is slowing.

Hansen for one...Aerosals and oceanic movement of water are two theories.

The warming hasn't slowed at all. What's constant lately is the climate average temperature over land. What's growing at an increasing rate is ocean heat content.

There is no model other than AGW that predicts how the earth reacts to a surplus of energy, due to a reduction in outgoing energy and addition of that same energy to earth's incoming energy.

But AGW says energy balance must and will be restored by heating of earth's land, water, ice, and atmospheric masses. The dynamics of that transition are yet to be determined.

When it can be modeled it will be in the form of a long term weather forecast.

Yeah sure. Heat in the oceans that somehow can't be measured. How do you make such ridiculous claims? Oh yeah, you're a propagandist! That's how!

 

[RollingThunder]

The President of the US recently declared that "the world CONTINUES to warm faster than ever predicted"... Is THAT a lie???

No, it wasn't. The world is continuing to warm faster than originally predicted. Global warming continues to accelerate, as many scientific reports cited on this thread confirm.

No, it wasn't. You're just a brainwashed denier cult retard.

The increase in wildfires is scientifically linked to the increased temperatures and the climate changes, like increased dryness, in America's southwest.

Increased extent and intensity of wildfire linked to Global warming

LOLOLOL.....that's all your own insanity and nothing to do with reality.

Yes it is. You're an insane little denier cult retard who posts nothing but denier cult myths, misinformation, pseudo-science and propaganda.

You're ignoring the CONTENT of what I ask you and what I say..

The "CONTENT" of what you say is the mental equivalent of a pile of rotting pigshit.

U apologize well for all the liars and the lying.

What are you talking about, fecalhead? I am certainly not apologizing for all of the stooges and fronts for the fossil fuel industry or their lies and deceptive misinformation and propaganda. They can all go fuck themselves. There is no possible apology or excuse for those traitors to humanity.

The fact that you firmly believe that the world scientific community, the Pentagon, and most world leaders are all lying to you about the reality and dangers of anthropogenic global warming/climate changes is one of the most obvious of all of the signs of your insanity and disconnect from reality. And, of course, that's all part of that whole 'conspiracy theory nut' thing you have going.

So how much has the worrld warmed in the last decade PRINCESS?.?.?

LOLOLOL...."PRINCESS"???.....LOLOL......are you still in grade school?....even your insults are laughably lame....

As far as your question goes, the world warmed a little bit more this last decade than it did the previous decade, in spite of the increase in volcanic and industrial aerosols, prolonged and repeated La Nina events, and an extra long and low solar minimum. As usual, most of the extra heat energy retained in the Earth system went into the oceans, with slightly more going there in recent years due to stuff like those La Nina's. If you want numbers, they are in this article below.

4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second
(excerpts)
....to examine the physical reason why there is a long-term warming trend - because the planet is building up heat. This is vividly demonstrated in the following graph which shows surface temperature jumping up and down from year to year while the Earth's total heat content shows a steady, near-monotonic increase.

The blue line in this graph is not a statistical long-term trend or a 5-year average - it's actual yearly data of total heat content. The long-term warming trend is grounded in physical reality - the planetary energy imbalance.

In 2012, several Skeptical Science contributors teamed up with John Church to publish a paper (Nuccitelli et al. 2012) in response to a flawed publication by Douglass & Knox (2012). In our paper, we analyzed global heat data, created by combining pentadal (5-year average) ocean heat content data to a depth of 2,000 meters from Levitus et al. (2012), and land, atmosphere, and ice heating data from Church et al. (2011). As this figure shows, there has been no significant slowing in global heat accumulation, contrary to the mythical 'global warming pause'. So, how do we come up with 4 Hiroshima atomic bomb detonation equivalents per second from this data? The slope of the global heat accumulation graph tells us how rapidly the Earth's climate is building up heat. Over the past decade, the rate is 8 x 10 to the 21st Joules per year, or 2.5 x 10 to the14th Joules per second. The yield of the Hiroshima atomic bomb was 6.3 x 10 to the 13th Joules, hence the rate of global heat accumulation is equivalent to about 4 Hiroshima bomb detonations per second. That's nearly 2 billion atomic bomb detonations worth of heat accumulating in the Earth's climate system since 1998, when we're told global warming supposedly 'paused'. That has to be the worst pause ever. The data used in Nuccitelli et al. (2012) are now available for download so you can check it out for yourself.


Nuccitelli et al 2012 Total Heat Content

Global warming is sometimes thought of as just an increase in the air temperature, and it is a recurring myth that global warming has magically stopped whenever there is a pause in the long-term trend of increasing air temperature. However, heat is exchanged between all parts of the Earth System, and the oceans can hold vastly more heat than the air. Global warming is actually the total accumulated heat in the whole Earth System that results from the imbalance between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat and reflected energy. This figure from Nuccitelli et al. (2012) [PDF] shows the change in the total heat content of the Earth System since 1960 in terms of its major components: the total land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red) from Church et al. (2011), and the ocean heating for the 0-700 meter layer (light blue) and the 700-2,000 meter layer (dark blue) from Levitus et al. (2012). More than 90% of global warming goes into heating the oceans, while less than 3% goes into heating the atmosphere. Even relatively small exchanges of ocean heat with the atmosphere, as occurs during the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can produce short-term fluctuations and pauses in the increasing air temperature.

(Creative Commons License - Skeptical Science Graphics by Skeptical Science is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.)

 

[westwall]

No, it wasn't. The world is continuing to warm faster than originally predicted. Global warming continues to accelerate, as many scientific reports cited on this thread confirm.

No, it wasn't. You're just a brainwashed denier cult retard.

The increase in wildfires is scientifically linked to the increased temperatures and the climate changes, like increased dryness, in America's southwest.

Increased extent and intensity of wildfire linked to Global warming

LOLOLOL.....that's all your own insanity and nothing to do with reality.

Yes it is. You're an insane little denier cult retard who posts nothing but denier cult myths, misinformation, pseudo-science and propaganda.


The "CONTENT" of what you say is the mental equivalent of a pile of rotting pigshit.

U apologize well for all the liars and the lying.

What are you talking about, fecalhead? I am certainly not apologizing for all of the stooges and fronts for the fossil fuel industry or their lies and deceptive misinformation and propaganda. They can all go fuck themselves. There is no possible apology or excuse for those traitors to humanity.

The fact that you firmly believe that the world scientific community, the Pentagon, and most world leaders are all lying to you about the reality and dangers of anthropogenic global warming/climate changes is one of the most obvious of all of the signs of your insanity and disconnect from reality. And, of course, that's all part of that whole 'conspiracy theory nut' thing you have going.

So how much has the worrld warmed in the last decade PRINCESS?.?.?

LOLOLOL...."PRINCESS"???.....LOLOL......are you still in grade school?....even your insults are laughably lame....

As far as your question goes, the world warmed a little bit more this last decade than it did the previous decade, in spite of the increase in volcanic and industrial aerosols, prolonged and repeated La Nina events, and an extra long and low solar minimum. As usual, most of the extra heat energy retained in the Earth system went into the oceans, with slightly more going there in recent years due to stuff like those La Nina's. If you want numbers, they are in this article below.

4 Hiroshima bombs worth of heat per second
(excerpts)
....to examine the physical reason why there is a long-term warming trend - because the planet is building up heat. This is vividly demonstrated in the following graph which shows surface temperature jumping up and down from year to year while the Earth's total heat content shows a steady, near-monotonic increase.

The blue line in this graph is not a statistical long-term trend or a 5-year average - it's actual yearly data of total heat content. The long-term warming trend is grounded in physical reality - the planetary energy imbalance.

In 2012, several Skeptical Science contributors teamed up with John Church to publish a paper (Nuccitelli et al. 2012) in response to a flawed publication by Douglass & Knox (2012). In our paper, we analyzed global heat data, created by combining pentadal (5-year average) ocean heat content data to a depth of 2,000 meters from Levitus et al. (2012), and land, atmosphere, and ice heating data from Church et al. (2011). As this figure shows, there has been no significant slowing in global heat accumulation, contrary to the mythical 'global warming pause'. So, how do we come up with 4 Hiroshima atomic bomb detonation equivalents per second from this data? The slope of the global heat accumulation graph tells us how rapidly the Earth's climate is building up heat. Over the past decade, the rate is 8 x 1021 Joules per year, or 2.5 x 1014 Joules per second. The yield of the Hiroshima atomic bomb was 6.3 x 1013 Joules, hence the rate of global heat accumulation is equivalent to about 4 Hiroshima bomb detonations per second. That's nearly 2 billion atomic bomb detonations worth of heat accumulating in the Earth's climate system since 1998, when we're told global warming supposedly 'paused'. That has to be the worst pause ever. The data used in Nuccitelli et al. (2012) are now available for download so you can check it out for yourself.


Nuccitelli et al 2012 Total Heat Content

Global warming is sometimes thought of as just an increase in the air temperature, and it is a recurring myth that global warming has magically stopped whenever there is a pause in the long-term trend of increasing air temperature. However, heat is exchanged between all parts of the Earth System, and the oceans can hold vastly more heat than the air. Global warming is actually the total accumulated heat in the whole Earth System that results from the imbalance between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat and reflected energy. This figure from Nuccitelli et al. (2012) [PDF] shows the change in the total heat content of the Earth System since 1960 in terms of its major components: the total land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red) from Church et al. (2011), and the ocean heating for the 0-700 meter layer (light blue) and the 700-2,000 meter layer (dark blue) from Levitus et al. (2012). More than 90% of global warming goes into heating the oceans, while less than 3% goes into heating the atmosphere. Even relatively small exchanges of ocean heat with the atmosphere, as occurs during the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can produce short-term fluctuations and pauses in the increasing air temperature.

(Creative Commons License - Skeptical Science Graphics by Skeptical Science is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.)

I love it! Graphs created by people using figures they created that are beyond the capability of the instruments involved to measure. Only a true propagandist would listen to such crap.

HELLO PROPAGANDIST!

 

[RollingThunder]

I love it! Graphs created by people using figures they created that are beyond the capability of the instruments involved to measure.

LOLOLOL....actually it's more like 'figures that are way beyond the capacity of anti-science denier cult retards like walleyed to comprehend'.

Only a true propagandist would listen to such crap.

Only a true denier cultist would deny science he hasn't looked at or even tried to understand. Not that you could ever understand it, walleyed, even if you studied it for years.

 

[RollingThunder]

There's no data to suggest that it's accelerating but there are scientist wondering why it is slowing.

Hansen for one...Aerosals and oceanic movement of water are two theories.

Actually there is a great deal of data showing that global warming has continued to accelerate since the beginning of the millennium, in spite of reflective volcanic and industrial aerosols, low solar minimums and prolonged repeated La Nina's. Scientists have been looking into the factors that have resulted in a slowdown in surface temperature rises but then, only 3% of the extra heat energy that the CO2 is trapping goes into heating the atmosphere and around 90% has always gone into the oceans. The overall energy imbalance at the TOA has continued so the Earth as a whole has continued to gain heat energy. More of it has gone into the oceans recently than was the case in some previous decades but that heat will eventually, and probably pretty soon too, come back to the surface in a big El Nino event (w/ something similar in the Atlantic) and result in accelerated surface temperature warming.

 

[westwall]

There's no data to suggest that it's accelerating but there are scientist wondering why it is slowing.

Hansen for one...Aerosals and oceanic movement of water are two theories.

Actually there is a great deal of data showing that global warming has continued to accelerate since the beginning of the millennium, in spite of reflective volcanic and industrial aerosols, low solar minimums and prolonged repeated La Nina's. Scientists have been looking into the factors that have resulted in a slowdown in surface temperature rises but only 3% of the extra heat energy goes into the atmosphere and the energy imbalance at the TOA has continued so the Earth as a whole has continued to gain heat energy. More of it has gone into the oceans than was the case in some previous decades but that heat will eventually, and probably soon, come back to the surface in a big El Nino event (w/ something similar in the Atlantic) and result in accelerated surface temperature warming.

Sure it has. Funny how the heat can't seem to be found or measured but we are expected to believe those statements? Get real.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

There's no data to suggest that it's accelerating but there are scientist wondering why it is slowing.

Hansen for one...Aerosals and oceanic movement of water are two theories.

Actually there is a great deal of data showing that global warming has continued to accelerate since the beginning of the millennium, in spite of reflective volcanic and industrial aerosols, low solar minimums and prolonged repeated La Nina's. Scientists have been looking into the factors that have resulted in a slowdown in surface temperature rises but only 3% of the extra heat energy goes into the atmosphere and the energy imbalance at the TOA has continued so the Earth as a whole has continued to gain heat energy. More of it has gone into the oceans than was the case in some previous decades but that heat will eventually, and probably soon, come back to the surface in a big El Nino event (w/ something similar in the Atlantic) and result in accelerated surface temperature warming.

Sure it has. Funny how the heat can't seem to be found or measured but we are expected to believe those statements? Get real.

Over 14k posts on the subject and you still have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[westwall]

Actually there is a great deal of data showing that global warming has continued to accelerate since the beginning of the millennium, in spite of reflective volcanic and industrial aerosols, low solar minimums and prolonged repeated La Nina's. Scientists have been looking into the factors that have resulted in a slowdown in surface temperature rises but only 3% of the extra heat energy goes into the atmosphere and the energy imbalance at the TOA has continued so the Earth as a whole has continued to gain heat energy. More of it has gone into the oceans than was the case in some previous decades but that heat will eventually, and probably soon, come back to the surface in a big El Nino event (w/ something similar in the Atlantic) and result in accelerated surface temperature warming.

Sure it has. Funny how the heat can't seem to be found or measured but we are expected to believe those statements? Get real.

Over 14k posts on the subject and you still have no idea what you're talking about.

More than you ever will dopey.

 

[RollingThunder]

There's no data to suggest that it's accelerating but there are scientist wondering why it is slowing.

Hansen for one...Aerosals and oceanic movement of water are two theories.

Actually there is a great deal of data showing that global warming has continued to accelerate since the beginning of the millennium, in spite of reflective volcanic and industrial aerosols, low solar minimums and prolonged repeated La Nina's. Scientists have been looking into the factors that have resulted in a slowdown in surface temperature rises but only 3% of the extra heat energy goes into the atmosphere and the energy imbalance at the TOA has continued so the Earth as a whole has continued to gain heat energy. More of it has gone into the oceans than was the case in some previous decades but that heat will eventually, and probably soon, come back to the surface in a big El Nino event (w/ something similar in the Atlantic) and result in accelerated surface temperature warming.

Sure it has. Funny how the heat can't seem to be found or measured but we are expected to believe those statements? Get real.

Scientist are having no problem finding and measuring the heat that is passing into the oceans. It is only the ignorant reality deniers like you, walleyed, who are so lost in conspiracy theory nuttyness that you can convince yourself that virtually all of the world's climate scientists are lying to you. Scientists have been studying the oceans very intensely for many decades with some very advanced instrumentation and techniques and they are not nearly as clueless about temperatures and trends as your anti-science propaganda tells you they are. You just can't understand what they do or how because you're so stupid and brainwashed, not because they're not doing what they say they're doing.

Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content
(You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article)
Magdalena A. Balmaseda1,*, Kevin E. Trenberth2, Erland Källén1
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 40, Issue 9, pages 1754–1759, 16 May 2013
Article first published online: 10 MAY 2013
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50382
(excerpts)
Abstract
The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.
Summary and Conclusions
[15] The time evolution of the global OHC for the period 1958–2009, as estimated by the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis, is dominated by a warming trend and pronounced cooling episodes, and shows an increasing warming trend at depths below 700 m. The cooling episodes correspond to cooling seen in SSTs in response to the El Chichón and Mt Pinatubo eruptions, and the radiative imbalance associated with the latter [Trenberth and Dai, 2007] is consistent with the cooling found here. More surprising is the extra cooling following 1998, a likely consequence of the ocean heat discharge associated with the massive 1997–1998 El Niño event [Trenberth et al., 2002]. Meehl et al. [2011] have demonstrated in a model study how La Niña events and negative PDO events could cause a hiatus in warming of the top 300 m while sequestering heat at deeper layers. This mechanism can also explain the increasing role of the depths below 700 m after 1999 in the ORAS4 OHC, consistent with La Niña-like conditions and a negative phase of the PDO which has dominated the last decade. The deep ocean warming, which mostly involves the depth range 700–2000 m, may also be related to the weakening of the MOC after 1995, which is present in ORAS4 [BMW13]. Possibly changes in MOC and PDO are connected through changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns.
[16] The deep ocean has continued to warm, while the upper 300 m OHC appears to have stabilized. The differences in recent trends among the different ocean layers are profound. The small warming in the upper 300 m is belied by the continuing warming for the ocean as a whole, with considerable warming occurring below 700 m. However, this raises the question of whether this result is simply because of the new Argo observing system? The results shown here suggest otherwise, although Argo clearly is vitally important quantitatively. Instead changes in surface winds play a major role, and although the exact nature of the wind influence still needs to be understood, the changes are consistent with the intensification of the trades in subtropical gyres. Another supporting factor is the uniqueness of the radiative forcing associated with global warming.
[17] The magnitude of the warming trend is consistent with observational estimates, being equivalent to an average 0.47 ± 0.03 W m–2 for the period 1975–2009. There is large decadal variability in the heat uptake, the latest decade being significantly higher (1.19 ± 0.11 W m–2) than the preceding record. Globally this corresponds to 0.84 W m–2, consistent with earlier estimates [Trenberth et al., 2009]. In an observing system experiment where Argo is withdrawn, the ocean heating for the last decade is reduced (0.82 ± 0.10 W m–2), but is still significantly higher than in previous decades. The estimation shows depths below 700 m becoming much more strongly involved in the heat uptake after 1998, and subsequently accounting for about 30% of the ocean warming.
[18] The analysis of ORAS4 OHC shows some interesting signals. In particular, the prolonged and intense cooling events during the 1980s and 1990s are not as distinct in other observation-only analyses [BMW13], and the rapid involvement of the deep ocean starting around the 1998–1999 La Niña needs further investigation. Sensitivity experiments indicate that these features are robust, and suggest that changes in the atmospheric circulation play an important role in the heat uptake. Detecting, understanding and modeling the processes that lead to the vertical distribution of heat within the ocean is a key for the correct initialization of decadal predictions, because the trends in forecasts of the SST will likely depend on whether the ocean is in a recharge (low stratification) or discharge (high stratification) mode.

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