Conservative65
Gold Member
- Oct 14, 2014
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- #41
The Complete Idiot's Guide to Social Security
Let's start with three people. We'll call them Paul, Ringo, and George. All three are healthy, young, and entering the workforce at the age of 25 years. All three earn $100 per week, or $5200 a year. Aside from other normal taxes, 6.2% of their paycheck goes to Social Security, with their employer paying another 6.2% as required by law. Let's put all of this SS money into a pot which is allocated for these three people. Now, as time goes on inflation happen and the cost of living goes up. Paul, Ringo, and George all get 4% cost of living raises every year. By the time they are 65, they are making $16,962.60 per year.
All three men retire after their 65th year, having spent 40 years contributing to the SS pot. That pot is now $152,166.27. That breaks down to $50,722.09 of contributions per person, though half of that was contributed by their employer. But there's a problem that arises already. You see, over the years maintaining the SS program has cost money. There are administrative costs. SSA employee salaries, building costs, office supplies, etc. It's about 20% of the contributions, so the pot is actually only worth $40,577.67 per person ($121,733.02 total).
Now that each person is retired, it's time to start paying out to these men. The payout is 40% of their average income. Their average yearly income over their 40 years turns out to be $10,226.23. Thus, their payout in their first year is $4090.49. But SS gets a cost of living raise every year as well. Each year the amount increases by 4% which depletes the pot faster.
If all three men live to be 75 years old, their specially designated pot has gone into the red by $5399.40. Of course, who really knows for sure how long either will live? Let's say for a moment that Paul dies in the first day of his retirement. He basically never collects a single cent of that SS money he contributed over the years. What happens to it? Well, he's never going to see it, that's for sure. It stays in the pot. Next to die is Ringo, at the age of 70 years. By this point he's used about $17,400 of his contribution, which is almost one half after administrative costs were deducted. The remaining stays in the pot. This now leaves only George.
George is a healthy and lives a very long life. He always exercised. Ate healthy. Never smoked, only fucked the clean hookers, whatever. Whatever the reason, George is still kicking at 82 years old, drawing from that SS pot. But, George is about to be in a pickle. Because at the age of 82, that SS pot, which included half of Ringo's contributions and all of Paul's contributions, is about to be empty. There will be no more money next year. George lives to be 90 years old, and for the remainder of his years he receives a Social Security check, and in total the pot for the three goes $70,000 in the red. But how is that possible if the pot is now empty? Because, it turns out that Social Security isn't a pot after all. It's not an investment, and it doesn't "pay out." The politicians tell you that it works like that, but it actually doesn't. It's carefully constructed to imitate a contribution/payout model on its surface. But at the end of the day, it's just a tax and entitlement program.
Congress imitates a contribution/payout model by basing your entitlement amount on your average income over your lifetime. This creates a superficial sense of a contribution based payout. It's a cleverly laid out word game. Your contributions are based on your income, your payout is based on your income, therefore your payout is based on your contributions. It's a blatant illogical line of reasoning. It is a logical fallacy that even has a special name known as the Politicians Fallacy.
To highlight this, let's put it in standard form:
All "contributions" are income based
All "payouts" are income based
Therefore, all payouts are contribution based.
This is what's known as an AAA-2 form, and commits the undistributed middle fallacy.
As it turns out, Social Security is not a contribution/payout system. It is a tax/welfare entitlement system. It doesn't matter how much you pay in SS tax in your lifetime. Your ability to collect Social Security welfare will not diminish if your lifetime taxation has been met. You have no control over the amount of your entitlement. The funds do not belong to you, they are given by the grace of the government, and you only receive what Congress decides you're entitled to, and when. Nor will your estate ever be able to retain any value from your lifetime Social Security taxation if you should happen to die before you consume an amount in welfare equivalent to your taxation. You have no property rights over the Social Security taxes you've paid.
A true contribution/payout retirement fund is 100% based on your contributions (including returns), and is 100% at your control upon retirement. You can decide how much to withdraw, and when to do so. If you die your money becomes part of your estate and become the property of your heirs (you have property rights over the fund). Social Security is a very different system.
And the worst part is that even after mandating your employer match the 6.2% you are taxed Social Security gives you less for your money than if you had simply had the chance to invest your 6.2% into a typical retirement fund.
To explain that, let's look at our fourth worker, named John. John is just like Paul, Ringo, and George. He's the same age, makes the same amount of money. He gets the same COL raise every year. The only difference is that John isn't being taxed by Social Security, nor is John's boss paying SS tax on John. Instead, John invests 6.2% of his income into a personal retirement account. His boss matches the same 6.2% into the account. While John is young he has the account invested in stocks, returning 10% a year, which is naturally reinvested into the account. When John reaches 45 years, he re-diverts the funds into safe mutual bonds that only return 5% a year. John retires at the same age as the rest, with a retirement fund of more than $180,000 just for himself. If John withdraws the same amount that Paul, Ringo, and George are paid from Social Security (including the same yearly COL increases), his fund will continue to grow slightly each year until he's 99, and he'll never run out of money unless he lives to be older than 121 years. If John lives to be 100 years old, he will die with more than $300,000 to pass on to his heirs. Of course, with those kinds of resources available to him John might be inclined to provide himself a more comfortable allowance. Even if John withdraws twice the amount SS would have been paying him, he'd easily have enough money to carry him through until he's 90 years old.
Explained perfectly as to why SS isn't insurance like many say but a redistribution of wealth scheme designed to give low wage earners far more than they ever put in while presenting the likelihood that some higher wage earners won't get out what they put in unless they live to be very, very old.