I'm just raising the question ... could the polls be wrong?

[Harpy Eagle]

Many of the "undecided voters" are really Trump voters but are afraid to announce it. They may be union folks, or urban dwellers, or black or Hispanic, but in any event they will vote for Trump and the polls will be proven wrong again. I'm not worried about 2018 or 2020.

I agree. In fact most pollsters are paid for by biased MSM and there are several ways the polls are tipped including polling more Democrats and asking questions with a slant. For example here is how a pollster can slant a question:
"As an identified GOP voter when you read about 'chaos in the White House' does this affect your perception of Trump"?
Or a question like this: "Given President Trump's tweets, do you feel that is how a responsible President should respond"?

It's kind of like "When did you stop beating your wife"?

'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans
'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

Perhaps that is because the Dems hold a significant advantage in the number of registered voters, thus a random sample would be expected to pick more of them.

1. Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups | Pew Research Center

2018: Democrats lead GOP by 12 million registered voters, 40% D, 29% R, 28% I

Overall, 40 percent of voters in 31 party registration states are Democrats, 29 percent are Republicans, and 28 percent are independents, according to a new report of July numbers from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

If the polls are so screwed up and dysfunctional, why were they so close, as Post 7 demonstrates?

Polls are used to drive a narrative by the media. Propaganda and not much more. We are supposed to ignore economic reality and instead base our opinions on skewed polls.
And sadly many ignorant Americans will eat it up.

 

[healthmyths]

Obviously they could be wrong. Anyone who puts faith in polls after 2016 is not very bright.

Yeah, the polls in 2016 were just terrible...Clinton only won the popular vote (which is what polls predict) by 2.4%, not the 2 to 4 percent that most polls were predicting...

View attachment 223724

the entire PV delta was in NY and Cal and even in those states it came down to a few counties. Yes, Clinton won those two blue states, but she lost the EC by a large margin. Do we really want a few counties in NY and Cal picking our presidents? Do we really want 48 states to have no voice in it?

I am not advocating for the PV to choose the election, I merely pointed out that the polls were not a wrong as the sheep have been told.

Historically speaking, Trump's win in the EC was not large at all. It was in the bottom 10% all time for margin of victory.

This past election came down to 3 states, Wi, MI and Penn. Trump won those 3 states by less than a percentage point combined

I'd suggest you read the following article: Can We Trust the Polls?: It all depends
Can We Trust the Polls?: It all depends
NOTE: this article was written 15 years ago! And this was before the pollster proliferation.
Specifically read the part about "Exit Polling"... again BEFORE the moniker "Deplorables" was applied i.e. Trumpsters, or "sheep"...

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Obviously they could be wrong. Anyone who puts faith in polls after 2016 is not very bright.

Yeah, the polls in 2016 were just terrible...Clinton only won the popular vote (which is what polls predict) by 2.4%, not the 2 to 4 percent that most polls were predicting...

View attachment 223724

Haha..once again GG posts just like a filthy LefTard would...But, but, but...he’s only telling the truth...haha

Why yes, thank you for recognizing all I did was report the truth and facts.

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

 

[Mac1958]

Digging down deeper into the polls in Post 7 (sorry, I'm a numbers guy), the average spread is 3.1%. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.

1% is pretty damn accurate.

 

[Mac1958]

If the polls are so screwed up and dysfunctional, why were they so close, as Post 7 demonstrates?

Polls are used to drive a narrative by the media. Propaganda and not much more. We are supposed to ignore economic reality and instead base our opinions on skewed polls. And sadly many ignorant Americans will eat it up.

Take a look at post 25.
.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

If the polls are so screwed up and dysfunctional, why were they so close, as Post 7 demonstrates?

Polls are used to drive a narrative by the media. Propaganda and not much more. We are supposed to ignore economic reality and instead base our opinions on skewed polls.
And sadly many ignorant Americans will eat it up.

If the polls are so screwed up and dysfunctional, why were they so close, as Post 7 demonstrates?

 

[healthmyths]

Many of the "undecided voters" are really Trump voters but are afraid to announce it. They may be union folks, or urban dwellers, or black or Hispanic, but in any event they will vote for Trump and the polls will be proven wrong again. I'm not worried about 2018 or 2020.

I agree. In fact most pollsters are paid for by biased MSM and there are several ways the polls are tipped including polling more Democrats and asking questions with a slant. For example here is how a pollster can slant a question:
"As an identified GOP voter when you read about 'chaos in the White House' does this affect your perception of Trump"?
Or a question like this: "Given President Trump's tweets, do you feel that is how a responsible President should respond"?

It's kind of like "When did you stop beating your wife"?

'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans
'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

Perhaps that is because the Dems hold a significant advantage in the number of registered voters, thus a random sample would be expected to pick more of them.

1. Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups | Pew Research Center

View attachment 223729

2018: Democrats lead GOP by 12 million registered voters, 40% D, 29% R, 28% I

Overall, 40 percent of voters in 31 party registration states are Democrats, 29 percent are Republicans, and 28 percent are independents, according to a new report of July numbers from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

OK... then explain this "significant" number.
Party Affiliation

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Digging down deeper into the polls in Post 7 (sorry, I'm a numbers guy), the average spread is 3.1%. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.

1% is pretty damn accurate.

Their party masters told them that polls are not to be trusted and they will hold to that till they die, or until they find a poll that tells them what they think is true then that poll is straight from the hand of god...as evidenced by the 100 threads about polls started by the Trump sheep in the last couple of weeks.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Many of the "undecided voters" are really Trump voters but are afraid to announce it. They may be union folks, or urban dwellers, or black or Hispanic, but in any event they will vote for Trump and the polls will be proven wrong again. I'm not worried about 2018 or 2020.

I agree. In fact most pollsters are paid for by biased MSM and there are several ways the polls are tipped including polling more Democrats and asking questions with a slant. For example here is how a pollster can slant a question:
"As an identified GOP voter when you read about 'chaos in the White House' does this affect your perception of Trump"?
Or a question like this: "Given President Trump's tweets, do you feel that is how a responsible President should respond"?

It's kind of like "When did you stop beating your wife"?

'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans
'Fraud': Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans

Perhaps that is because the Dems hold a significant advantage in the number of registered voters, thus a random sample would be expected to pick more of them.

1. Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups | Pew Research Center

View attachment 223729

2018: Democrats lead GOP by 12 million registered voters, 40% D, 29% R, 28% I

Overall, 40 percent of voters in 31 party registration states are Democrats, 29 percent are Republicans, and 28 percent are independents, according to a new report of July numbers from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

OK... then explain this "significant" number.
Party Affiliation

View attachment 223730

I would be happy to after you explain the numbers I provided, especially the one that gave the breakdown by the actual voter rolls of those states requiring a party.

 

[BrokeLoser]

Obviously they could be wrong. Anyone who puts faith in polls after 2016 is not very bright.

Yeah, the polls in 2016 were just terrible...Clinton only won the popular vote (which is what polls predict) by 2.4%, not the 2 to 4 percent that most polls were predicting...

View attachment 223724

Haha..once again GG posts just like a filthy LefTard would...But, but, but...he’s only telling the truth...haha

Why yes, thank you for recognizing all I did was report the truth and facts.

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

Hahaha...you just can’t stop yourself..haha...the smartest guy in the room shit is hilarious. Anybody who firmly stands for something is a “blind sheep” to all you super smart muthafuckers...haha
Most of you extra terrestrial, ridiculously intelligent types are way too smart for religion and God as well...are you ‘that guy’ too?

 

[Mac1958]

Digging down deeper into the polls in Post 7 (sorry, I'm a numbers guy), the average spread is 3.1%. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%. 1% is pretty damn accurate.

Their party masters told them that polls are not to be trusted and they will hold to that till they die, or until they find a poll that tells them what they think is true then that poll is straight from the hand of god...as evidenced by the 100 threads about polls started by the Trump sheep in the last couple of weeks.

Yep, that's the required narrative.
.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Yeah, the polls in 2016 were just terrible...Clinton only won the popular vote (which is what polls predict) by 2.4%, not the 2 to 4 percent that most polls were predicting...

View attachment 223724

Haha..once again GG posts just like a filthy LefTard would...But, but, but...he’s only telling the truth...haha

Why yes, thank you for recognizing all I did was report the truth and facts.

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

Hahaha...you just can’t stop yourself..haha...the smartest guy in the room shit is hilarious. Anybody who firmly stands for something is a “blind sheep” to all you super smart muthafuckers...haha
Most of you extra terrestrial, ridiculously intelligent types are way too smart for religion and God as well...are you ‘that guy’ too?

When dealing with people like you, my dog would be the smartest person in the room. That is a pretty damn low bar when you are involved.

Religion and God are two separate things, for example today's Christianity has little to do with God.

Please tell me you do not consider yourself a Christian...

 

[BrokeLoser]

Haha..once again GG posts just like a filthy LefTard would...But, but, but...he’s only telling the truth...haha

Why yes, thank you for recognizing all I did was report the truth and facts.

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

Hahaha...you just can’t stop yourself..haha...the smartest guy in the room shit is hilarious. Anybody who firmly stands for something is a “blind sheep” to all you super smart muthafuckers...haha
Most of you extra terrestrial, ridiculously intelligent types are way too smart for religion and God as well...are you ‘that guy’ too?

When dealing with people like you, my dog would be the smartest person in the room. That is a pretty damn low bar when you are involved.

Religion and God are two separate things, for example today's Christianity has little to do with God.

Please tell me you do not consider yourself a Christian...

A textbook smartest guy in the room response....tiptoeing around...Good job bud, I can see you’re super disciplined, you’ve been practicing for years.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Why yes, thank you for recognizing all I did was report the truth and facts.

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

Hahaha...you just can’t stop yourself..haha...the smartest guy in the room shit is hilarious. Anybody who firmly stands for something is a “blind sheep” to all you super smart muthafuckers...haha
Most of you extra terrestrial, ridiculously intelligent types are way too smart for religion and God as well...are you ‘that guy’ too?

When dealing with people like you, my dog would be the smartest person in the room. That is a pretty damn low bar when you are involved.

Religion and God are two separate things, for example today's Christianity has little to do with God.

Please tell me you do not consider yourself a Christian...

A textbook smartest guy in the room response....tiptoeing around...Good job bud, I can see you’re super disciplined, you’ve been practicing for years.

So, do you consider yourself a Christian or are you too smart for that?

 

[BrokeLoser]

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

Hahaha...you just can’t stop yourself..haha...the smartest guy in the room shit is hilarious. Anybody who firmly stands for something is a “blind sheep” to all you super smart muthafuckers...haha
Most of you extra terrestrial, ridiculously intelligent types are way too smart for religion and God as well...are you ‘that guy’ too?

When dealing with people like you, my dog would be the smartest person in the room. That is a pretty damn low bar when you are involved.

Religion and God are two separate things, for example today's Christianity has little to do with God.

Please tell me you do not consider yourself a Christian...

A textbook smartest guy in the room response....tiptoeing around...Good job bud, I can see you’re super disciplined, you’ve been practicing for years.

So, do you consider yourself a Christian or are you too smart for that?

I’m a horrible Christian...
(Where can you go with that? Let’s see some super clever smartest guy in the room shit....GO!)

 

[Norman]

Haha..once again GG posts just like a filthy LefTard would...But, but, but...he’s only telling the truth...haha

Why yes, thank you for recognizing all I did was report the truth and facts.

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

Hahaha...you just can’t stop yourself..haha...the smartest guy in the room shit is hilarious. Anybody who firmly stands for something is a “blind sheep” to all you super smart muthafuckers...haha
Most of you extra terrestrial, ridiculously intelligent types are way too smart for religion and God as well...are you ‘that guy’ too?

When dealing with people like you, my dog would be the smartest person in the room. That is a pretty damn low bar when you are involved.

Religion and God are two separate things, for example today's Christianity has little to do with God.

Please tell me you do not consider yourself a Christian...

Ringing endorsement for your intelligence.

"My dog is smarter than me".

Certainly explains the positions. The tail is in charge of the dog so to speak.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I’m a horrible Christian...
(Where can you go with that? Let’s see some super clever smartest guy in the room shit....GO!)

So, you consider yourself a Christian.

Why do you think you are horrible at it?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Why yes, thank you for recognizing all I did was report the truth and facts.

We know, we know....it’s just awfully bizarre...somehow, someway you ALWAYS seem to be posting the same “truth and facts” that all our resident LibTardians post...the narrative you hope to induce with your noble truths always seems to align with those same narratives of the filthy Left....weird huh? Ironic huh?

The only narrative I hope to induce is for you mindless sheep on both sides to quit parroting talking points that have been proven false 1000 times already.

What is ironic is how often you admit that your side does not like truth and facts, the only point you miss is that neither does the left.

Hahaha...you just can’t stop yourself..haha...the smartest guy in the room shit is hilarious. Anybody who firmly stands for something is a “blind sheep” to all you super smart muthafuckers...haha
Most of you extra terrestrial, ridiculously intelligent types are way too smart for religion and God as well...are you ‘that guy’ too?

When dealing with people like you, my dog would be the smartest person in the room. That is a pretty damn low bar when you are involved.

Religion and God are two separate things, for example today's Christianity has little to do with God.

Please tell me you do not consider yourself a Christian...

Ringing endorsement for your intelligence.

"My dog is smarter than me".

Certainly explains the positions. The tail is in charge of the dog so to speak.

Well no, the dog was in the room instead of me.

Sorry you were too dumb to catch on to that, but do not feel bad, you are in good company.

 

[blackhawk]

As I have said before polls are simply a snapshot of the moment and they can be manipulated to get the result you want by how you ask the questions in the poll or by over sampling or under sampling a group. They are good at showing the trend of the moment but far to many people on both sides take them way more serious than they should.