Lockdowns Did Not Work

[JimBowie1958]

This is science NOT opinion.

Yeah, POLITICAL science, lol.

From the article:
"As a professional political scientist, I have analysed data from the Worldometers Coronavirus project, "

You can stop reading there.

But to continue:
"As of 6 April, seven US states had not adopted shelter-in-place orders, instead imposing social-distancing restrictions such as banning large gatherings and mandating six-foot spacing gaps and maximum customer limits inside all retail stores. "

This is an effective way of fighting the spread of COVID19. The lockdowns were supposed to be for cities with a high fatality rate, like New York, where the lockdown seemed to slow the spread, unless the death count coming down was just a coincidence, but I dont think so. The lockdown in New York and LA, for example was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the health care system.

Why the lockdown is being applied to all counties of a state instead of only the heavily hit counties sounds like power mongering instead of science.

"the next step of my analysis was to adjust for population, using a standard deaths-per-million metric. "
But that does not adjust for population density, only total population. Siberia has 33 times the population of Rhode Island, but nowhere near the population density or vulnerability to COVID19.


The next section the author basically throws in the towel for his thesis in his own article.

"The ‘p-value’ for the variable representing strategy was 0.94 when it was regressed against the deaths metric, which means there is a 94 per cent chance that any relationship between the different measures and Covid-19 deaths was the result of pure random chance.​

​

The only variable to be statistically significant in terms of cases and deaths was population (p=0.006 and 0.021 respectively). Across the US states, each increase in the population of 100,000 correlated with 1,779 additional Covid-19 cases, even with multiple other factors adjusted for. Large, densely populated areas are more likely to struggle with Covid-19, no matter what response strategy they adopt – although erring on the side of caution might make sense for global megacities such as New York and Chicago.​

I agree with him there, and I think this should be the basis for our national Freedom Day.
Keep Social Distancing in moderately hit areas, Lockdowns in Megalopolises that have not yet seen their death rate come down, and then there is no need for social distancing once the antibodies for the virus are found in 60% of the population and we then have 'herd immunity', I know it is actually 50%, but I think 60% is attainable before October.

But as to the title, while lockdowns in big cities are useful, I agree we can go to mere Social Distancing everywhere else.
The delta's just dont justify destroying our economy with a longer lockdown on the whole nation.

 

[SweetSue92]

I can tell you something about Detroit and Wayne Co. Once this virus hit those areas, no amount of shelter or no-shelter was going to help and that's the truth.

Sorry, but you don't know shit.

Unsubstantiated opinions are just that.

So nothing to counter, just name-calling.

Fellow conservatives, we're winning.

But we knew that

What name did I call you?

"you don't know sh1t"

What part of what I said was wrong? That's called an ad hominem--name calling

 

[Fueri]

And spare me the BS leading question/false choice nonsense. I've been working right through this with very few changes in my life and nobody, including Sweden, is advocating not taking reasonable precautions.

You are, Shirley, if you insist precautions are silly to prevent inevitable herd immunity. Please spare me the equivocating bullshit where you're not happy to live with the implications of your advocacy.

Again, dolt, nobody says not to protect the vulnerable or take reasonable precautions to slow it so as not to overwhelm medical systems. Not me, not Sweden, nobody. Common sense dictates otherwise. Now you'd like to paint utilizing common sense to shield the vulnerable and practicing reasonable measures as this immunity within the population develops as an equivocation. Nice try Stretch Armstrong.

And I note you completely avoid the rest to the point of snipping it out of your response. Nice avoidance of what I stated, unequivocally mind you, was my point.

 

[JoeB131]

This is science NOT opinion.


The most basic way to test this thesis is by direct comparison. As of 6 April, seven US states had not adopted shelter-in place orders and their stats are in line with those that did even when adjusting for population density.

Open the country!

Expose people to Covid-19! Trump's re-election is in danger!

 

[Fueri]

Yes and they'll be largely done while we are still hiding and trying to stop something we cannot, while our death toll will likely be spread over a longer time period as we have multiple waves of this.

So why not jump in and get infected? I don't understand how you can advocate that strategy yet be unwilling to take part. Do you just hope it will happen to others?

Hoho, at least Bojo had the courage of his delusions...

Why not run out and get the flu on purpose too. As i already said, I am out working and haven't asked for special consideration to avoid doing so.

If it happens, it happens, which it likely will, and may have already. To me. And you as well.

 

[cnm]

Again, dolt, nobody says not to protect the vulnerable or take reasonable precautions to slow it so as not to overwhelm medical systems. Not me, not Sweden, nobody.

Even though those reasonable precautions, as recommended by your medical experts, are what you're protesting about, fuckwit. Yeah right.

 

[jc456]

So you are saying that I have an equal chance of catching the virus if I'm at home alone or if I'm in a packed football stadium?

who'da thunk huh?

 

[jc456]

You don't go outside to get mail, to get groceries, to put out the trash? Evidence shows not for everyone but for most, lockdowns don't change your odds. Don't kill the messenger.

So taking my trash can to the end of the driveway with nobody else in sight is the same as being in a packed football stadium?

how's it different? BTW, using a mask guarantees you will touch your face. the number one thing they tell you not to do. it's hilarious how fking stupid you all are.

 

[playtime]

There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns

Comparing US states shows there is no relationship between lockdowns and lower Covid-19 deaths.

www.google.com

This is science NOT opinion.

The most basic way to test this thesis is by direct comparison. As of 6 April, seven US states had not adopted shelter-in place orders and their stats are in line with those that did even when adjusting for population density.

Open the country!

Depends on what our sheltering in place was supposed to accomplish.

If we sheltered in place:

1) So as to give modern medicine time to find a treatment,

2) To allow our hospitals to procure enough PPE and equipment, test kits, and get supply chains built up

3) To reduce the number of people infected from the initial exposures, so that we did not overwhelm hospital staff and facilities.

Then I think the shelter in place worked to some extent. We probably allowed it to go on too long. We really need to get back to work, albeit still observing mitigation practices.

The article was correct, we allowed a select few doctors, high on hubris, to cite really bad data, and grossly exaggerate the threat, the deaths and the spread of the infection. We also allowed politicians to get high on the feeling of power, to order their citizens around like year old toddlers, and allowed other politicians to loot the treasury.

^^^THIS^^^

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^^^ THAT ^^^

 

[jc456]

well when tainted kits are deployed in the US, one can count on the numbers going up to say see,

 

[jc456]

so explain to me how six weeks of quarantine caused numbers to go up? From September to March, there weren't many at all. then stay at home orders came out and fking boom the count went up. how is that so?

 

[Desperado]

So you are saying that I have an equal chance of catching the virus if I'm at home alone or if I'm in a packed football stadium?

It should be your choice not the government's if you stay home or if you go to a football game.

 

[playtime]

Guy thinks he's being clever. The death rate would naturally be fairly constant everywhere among positive cases. Only a disingenuous asshole would use that single factor to make such a broad declaration. Slowing the rate of spread is key.

Science says otherwise.

You say otherwise. I'm using science to critically examine the claim which is lacking the correct data points and proper statistical analysis. There's no way to even make that deterination until it's over and all the growth curves are lined up and adjusted for the incubation period of the virus plotted against when the various lockdown orders were implemented.

kinda like when azog was hawking for donny - who was hawking hydroxycholoquine.... how did that turn out?

 

[Desperado]

so explain to me how six weeks of quarantine caused numbers to go up? From September to March, there weren't many at all. then stay at home orders came out and fking boom the count went up. how is that so?

Are you that dense? More testing, more cases

 

[jc456]

so explain to me how six weeks of quarantine caused numbers to go up? From September to March, there weren't many at all. then stay at home orders came out and fking boom the count went up. how is that so?

Are you that dense? More testing, more cases

especially using test kits with the virus already on them.

 

[jc456]

Guy thinks he's being clever. The death rate would naturally be fairly constant everywhere among positive cases. Only a disingenuous asshole would use that single factor to make such a broad declaration. Slowing the rate of spread is key.

Science says otherwise.

You say otherwise. I'm using science to critically examine the claim which is lacking the correct data points and proper statistical analysis. There's no way to even make that deterination until it's over and all the growth curves are lined up and adjusted for the incubation period of the virus plotted against when the various lockdown orders were implemented.

what data do you have? you don't have one piece of data. they have it. they can manipulate data however they choose to manipulate the people. you will hop in the box car when they tell you to, won't you?

 

[SweetSue92]

Guy thinks he's being clever. The death rate would naturally be fairly constant everywhere among positive cases. Only a disingenuous asshole would use that single factor to make such a broad declaration. Slowing the rate of spread is key.

Science says otherwise.

You say otherwise. I'm using science to critically examine the claim which is lacking the correct data points and proper statistical analysis. There's no way to even make that deterination until it's over and all the growth curves are lined up and adjusted for the incubation period of the virus plotted against when the various lockdown orders were implemented.

kinda like when azog was hawking for donny - who was hawking hydroxycholoquine.... how did that turn out?

Still turning out great all over the nation. It saved my aunt's life, in fact.

 

[jc456]

Guy thinks he's being clever. The death rate would naturally be fairly constant everywhere among positive cases. Only a disingenuous asshole would use that single factor to make such a broad declaration. Slowing the rate of spread is key.

Science says otherwise.

You say otherwise. I'm using science to critically examine the claim which is lacking the correct data points and proper statistical analysis. There's no way to even make that deterination until it's over and all the growth curves are lined up and adjusted for the incubation period of the virus plotted against when the various lockdown orders were implemented.

kinda like when azog was hawking for donny - who was hawking hydroxycholoquine.... how did that turn out?

Still turning out great all over the nation. It saved my aunt's life, in fact.

it is the cure. now that we have the cure, it's now time to move along with building america.

 

[cnm]

well when tainted kits are deployed in the US,

Yeah? Kits developed by the IMPOTUS's administration?

 

[jc456]

well when tainted kits are deployed in the US,

Yeah? Kits developed by the IMPOTUS's administration?

came from China. you still don't get the fact thing.