Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Katzndogz]

It's a good thing democrats have Nate Silver. Without him, they got nothing. If early OH voting is any indication, obama is going to lose by a very wide margin.

 

[Dick Tuck]

More like Obama running away FROM it...


"Mr President, what about Benghazi?"

What about it? We've learned it was al Qaeda that murdered Americans. We're investigating who those individuals are. We'll target them and kill them, just like we killed Bin Laden.

"Mr President, what about Jeep production in China?"

What about it? Chrysler is still in business. They're expanding their production in China to avoid tariffs, and for sale in the Asian markets. They're also expanding their production in the USA, for the North American markets. Mitt would have put them out of business.

"Mr President, You've run up a trillion dollars a year in debt with no budget..."

We've had the smallest increase in discretionary spending since Carter. Were you too stupid to understand how a debt financed tax cut would impact us if the economy came to a near collapse?

"Mr President, what's your plan if reelected?"

Work toward a lowering of the deficit, using spending cuts and revenue increases. Subsidizing retraining of American workers for jobs that are actually out there. Improving education to keep us competitive. Would you prefer the Ryan/Romney plan of cutting things like student loans and Pell Grants?

 

[AceRothstein]

I've explained why the polls are wrong often... It's not a surprise...

Turnout is NOT going to be like 2008, dispite your beliefs it will...

Early voting is backing me up right now...

You've never shown any evidence of polls actually being wrong at all, especially for presidential elections.

Early voting is backing you up if you believe 2 national polls, you yourself say they are all wrong, and Romney's campaign.

I've shown that they are oversampled and you don't beleive it... You believe turnout is the same as 2008 and I'm seeing evidence to the contrary... You can ignore the evidence if you want, but I'm going to rub your nose in it on election day...

So you are giving no evidence of any polls actually being wrong previously. This is the year they are suddenly going to be off is what you are saying.

 

[AceRothstein]

It's a good thing democrats have Nate Silver. Without him, they got nothing. If early OH voting is any indication, obama is going to lose by a very wide margin.

Wrong. Every poll aggregation site is currently showing Obama in the lead. What do you cons have?

 

[Dick Tuck]

I've explained why the polls are wrong often... It's not a surprise...

Turnout is NOT going to be like 2008, dispite your beliefs it will...

Early voting is backing me up right now...

You've never shown any evidence of polls actually being wrong at all, especially for presidential elections.

Early voting is backing you up if you believe 2 national polls, you yourself say they are all wrong, and Romney's campaign.

I've shown that they are oversampled and you don't beleive it... You believe turnout is the same as 2008 and I'm seeing evidence to the contrary... You can ignore the evidence if you want, but I'm going to rub your nose in it on election day...

You've shown that you're fucking clueless. There's no oversampling. All polls, done by reputable polling organizations, use randomness. You're probably too stupid to understand that. I agree there is a bias in their "LV" algorithms, and it tends to diminish the likeliness of Hispanic turnout. What exactly was the D v R turnout four years ago?

 

[MarcATL]

How are the polls skewed to Dems?

Can anyone explain that?

Are Dems the ppl that are known to have home phones, or Republicans (aka older people)?

 

[hjmick]

 

[Dick Tuck]

How are the polls skewed to Dems?

Can anyone explain that?

Are Dems the ppl that are known to have home phones, or Republicans (aka older people)?

Most polls today call any random phone number, and it does matter whether its a landline, a cell, or VOIP. The moronic right wing wants to believe that polling organizations go out of their way to oversample some demographics, so they don't have to deal with reality. How fucking stupid is that argument?

Perhaps, just saying, Republicans are just more sociopathic misanthropic and don't respond to people asking them simple questions about their beliefs and opinions. Personally, I tend to dismiss that argument when I see their moronic ignorance and logic on message boards. To me, they tend to be the loudest bunch of motherfucking people around.

 

[Dr.House]

You've never shown any evidence of polls actually being wrong at all, especially for presidential elections.

Early voting is backing you up if you believe 2 national polls, you yourself say they are all wrong, and Romney's campaign.

I've shown that they are oversampled and you don't beleive it... You believe turnout is the same as 2008 and I'm seeing evidence to the contrary... You can ignore the evidence if you want, but I'm going to rub your nose in it on election day...

So you are giving no evidence of any polls actually being wrong previously. This is the year they are suddenly going to be off is what you are saying.

I'm telling you that using 2008 turnout models is absolutely wrong...

You are seeing it now...

You look at the internals and your picture becomes clearer... Look at the HUGE support for Romney with independents... Double digits, mostly... Thats just one indication that Barry is in for a world of hurt on the 6th...

 

[candycorn]

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Ohio now leans Obama as well as VA!

300

80% chance of victory

Feel the pain and salty tears hateful tea party

He's never been behind electorally.

You do bring up an interesting topic for 2016. In 1992, Clinton embraced some conservative principles to get elected. And to date is probably as popular as almost any other ex president. This year, Romney saw that his campaign was falling apart as long as he tried to come off as a whackjob conservative and became "Moderate Mitt". His popularity was there for a few moments and began to wane when it was pointed out that he, because of the strong TEA party influence, had to push himself so far to the right in the primary...he now looks like someone who will say anything to get elected.

Those of us who watched the stunt saw it all along and you see RW loons here trying to legitimize it--it is so bad. In 2016 it is only going to get worse for the Republicans who will again have to play one hand in the Spring and Summer and a different hand in the Fall. They'll have Obama fatigue on their side of course but it's a warning they should heed.

 

[AceRothstein]

I've shown that they are oversampled and you don't beleive it... You believe turnout is the same as 2008 and I'm seeing evidence to the contrary... You can ignore the evidence if you want, but I'm going to rub your nose in it on election day...

So you are giving no evidence of any polls actually being wrong previously. This is the year they are suddenly going to be off is what you are saying.

I'm telling you that using 2008 turnout models is absolutely wrong...

You are seeing it now...

You look at the internals and your picture becomes clearer... Look at the HUGE support for Romney with independents... Double digits, mostly... Thats just one indication that Barry is in for a world of hurt on the 6th...

THEY DON'T USE 2008 TURNOUT MODELS! No pollsters use prior election turnout models in their polls!

 

[Zarius]

So you are giving no evidence of any polls actually being wrong previously. This is the year they are suddenly going to be off is what you are saying.

I'm telling you that using 2008 turnout models is absolutely wrong...

You are seeing it now...

You look at the internals and your picture becomes clearer... Look at the HUGE support for Romney with independents... Double digits, mostly... Thats just one indication that Barry is in for a world of hurt on the 6th...

THEY DON'T USE 2008 TURNOUT MODELS! No pollsters use prior election turnout models in their polls!

Why try? If he finds comfort in such foolishness then let him. This time next week he will need prozac

 

[Dr.House]

So you are giving no evidence of any polls actually being wrong previously. This is the year they are suddenly going to be off is what you are saying.

I'm telling you that using 2008 turnout models is absolutely wrong...

You are seeing it now...

You look at the internals and your picture becomes clearer... Look at the HUGE support for Romney with independents... Double digits, mostly... Thats just one indication that Barry is in for a world of hurt on the 6th...

THEY DON'T USE 2008 TURNOUT MODELS! No pollsters use prior election turnout models in their polls!

I'm telling you that any poll coming out woith a D+8 sample is NOT an accurate snapshot of how the electorate will turnout for this election....

You can pretend it is if you want... Snuggle up to it all you like...

 

[Dr.House]

How did Nate the Wunderkid do in the Scott recall prediction?

How did he do in the 2010 Election predictions?

 

[Zarius]

I'm telling you that using 2008 turnout models is absolutely wrong...

You are seeing it now...

You look at the internals and your picture becomes clearer... Look at the HUGE support for Romney with independents... Double digits, mostly... Thats just one indication that Barry is in for a world of hurt on the 6th...

THEY DON'T USE 2008 TURNOUT MODELS! No pollsters use prior election turnout models in their polls!

I'm telling you that any poll coming out woith a D+8 sample is NOT an accurate snapshot of how the electorate will turnout for this election....

You can pretend it is if you want... Snuggle up to it all you like...

You use your feelings toward Obama and then say "no way will they come out", Bull shit. I dont know anyone who will not vote for Obama this time that did last time. Even more are registered now than before and will go Obama.

 

[Zarius]

How did Nate the Wunderkid do in the Scott recall prediction?

How did he do in the 2010 Election predictions?

Why want you talk about all the other maps that have Obama winning? Get off Nate and show me the romney winning maps?

 

[AceRothstein]

You could have easily found this information yourself.

How did Nate the Wunderkid do in the Scott recall prediction?

Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored - NYTimes.com

How did he do in the 2010 Election predictions?

34 of 37 Senate races

36 of 37 Governor races

For the House, he doesn't predict each specific race. He predicted a 55 seat turnover, ended up being 63.

 

[Zarius]

Come on back and answer damn it!

 

[Caroljo]

It is unthinkable that Mitt could win.

Unthinkable.

I'm terribly happy for wealth of the rw's who post here but I live on my investments and Social Security. I cannot afford what will happen to my investments under a GObP fascist plutocracy. I like paying less for prescriptions and the other breaks under ObamaCare. None of us can afford for the economy to stop growing and the end of new jobs as we would see under the r. And we sure as hell can't afford a bigger military and more wars.

 

[expatriate]

GIGO...

Plenty of information in the polls if you remove the weighting being done...


You didn't answer the question: If Nate is wrong, do you throw him under the bus or claim Romney cheated?

If SIlver is wrong, then all of us who believe that Obama has this thing won are wrong as well... I don't think Romney could cheat enough to actually have his cheating WIN him an election he would otherwise have lost, so, if he DOES win, then we've all misread the tea leaves, I guess.

We've been telling you that for weeks now... Using heavily oversampled polls just makes the statistics warped beyond reality... Nothing anywhere is pointing to a democrat / republican turnout model similar to 2008... In fact, you are seeing it in evidence with early voting... The D's are just not coming out in numbers like they did in 2008, while R's are expanding on their 2008 numbers...

Barry relied on early voting for his win in OH in 2008... if he doesn't get the same turnout, and the R's continue on their pace, election night is going to shock you Nate Followers...

shock me? hardly. sadden me slightly, perhaps. I certainly would prefer if Obama won, but if he doesn't, all my income sources will continue to grind out money for me and I will still love life in Mexico!

But, if Obama DOES win, I will ROFLMFAO and come on back here and rub his victory in your face.