Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[MarcATL]

November 6th can't get here soon enough.

Before you leave for good, please ask the MODs about transferring all your REPs to me.

Kinda like Highlander you see.

There can be only one.

 

[Dick Tuck]

I'll bookmark this post for you, and if I ever find out where you've gone after leaving this forum(provided you have the balls to keep up your end of the bargain), you can suck my dick then.

You remain a complete fucking asshole. Suck your own dick. Nevermind, you can't even find your own dick, you pussy.

I will have no need to "honor" my bet, you turd. President Obama is going to get defeated.

And I will be here laughing at you thereafter.

Now, fuck off you worthless piece of shit.

That's a good cowflop.

^magical thinking.

Now, click your ruby slippers together and say, "There's no president but Mitt. There's no president but Mitt."

Just don't look behind the curtain.

 

[Dick Tuck]

FiveThirtyEight.



UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

Dim turnout will end up being sluggish overall, at best.

Without a massive 2008 style Dim turnout, The ONE is toast.

Idiotic drivel like FiveThirtyEight cannot tell you that since all they do is regurgitate what the skewed polls have been "finding," based on dopey and inaccurate methodology.

Libs and other delusional types will finally figure it out when the returns from Ohio and Virginia and Colorado shock the pundits and the other sheep incapable of thinking outside of the box.

Mitt is going to win. The incumbent IS going to lose.

Bank on it.

Silver links to the actual polls, which you'd know, if you'd ever ventured off of the Corner and foxnews.com.

The actual polls are skewed, so linking to them is a classic example of GiGo.

You'd know that if you'd open your mind a bit.

I cannot keep repeating it. Not even for you, and I like you.

But the basic premise is: check the numbers buttressing those polls, kiddo.

Don't bother trusting the main stream media. They lie. It's not an accident.

You stupid piece of shit. The brilliance of Silver is to use the documented accuracy of the various pollsters, and to weigh them in his model's prediction.

 

[Dick Tuck]

You remain a complete fucking asshole. Suck your own dick. Nevermind, you can't even find your own dick, you pussy.

I will have no need to "honor" my bet, you turd. President Obama is going to get defeated.

And I will be here laughing at you thereafter.

Now, fuck off you worthless piece of shit.

That's a good cowflop.

^magical thinking.

Now, click your ruby slippers together and say, "There's no president but Mitt. There's no president but Mitt."

The magical thinking is mainly from the brain dead tools who refuse to accept the OBVIOUS flaws with the major polls.

I harbor some small hope that you need not be one of them much longer.

Three more days until Liability runs away like a little sissy. You really ought to puke up all your sophmoric polemic before then.

 

[Dick Tuck]

The actual polls are skewed, so linking to them is a classic example of GiGo.

You'd know that if you'd open your mind a bit.

I cannot keep repeating it. Not even for you, and I like you.

But the basic premise is: check the numbers buttressing those polls, kiddo.

Don't bother trusting the main stream media. They lie. It's not an accident.

You realize Silver predicted 2008 more accurately than any other source, don't you?

Another fallacy. But I don't mind you believing it.

Name another poll analyst who put Indiana in the toss up category. He nosed out Pollster, and beat RCP like a 25 cent whore pimp.

 

[decker]

You realize Silver predicted 2008 more accurately than any other source, don't you?

Another fallacy. But I don't mind you believing it.

Name another poll analyst who put Indiana in the toss up category. He nosed out Pollster, and beat RCP like a 25 cent whore pimp.

all i know is that obama needs to get turn out ;. i am worried that clinton going to pa on monday and romney in pa on sunday.

he must win pa. must otherwise its over.

 

[Mac1958]

.

As of this writing, RCP national average showing Obama 47.4, Romney 47.2.

5.4% either undecided or voting for someone else? That sounds pretty high to me.

.

 

[jillian]

.

As of this writing, RCP national average showing Obama 47.4, Romney 47.2.

5.4% either undecided or voting for someone else? That sounds pretty high to me.

.

each poll has it's own margin of error. but there's no question that national numbers are a statistical dead heat.

which is why it's the individual state numbers that are so important. and that's where fivethirtyeight's analysis kicks in.

For Romney To Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased

Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased - NYTimes.com

 

[Sarah G]

.

As of this writing, RCP national average showing Obama 47.4, Romney 47.2.

5.4% either undecided or voting for someone else? That sounds pretty high to me.

.

each poll has it's own margin of error. but there's no question that national numbers are a statistical dead heat.

which is why it's the individual state numbers that are so important. and that's where fivethirtyeight's analysis kicks in.

For Romney To Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased

Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased - NYTimes.com

I was watching Charlie Cook talk to Chuck Todd last night and he has Obama up in every swing state except Florida and that is tight. He also said that the Governors are going to be heavy red this year and that has been a trend.

He went through every state for the senate and has Democrats winning by 5 plus one Inde. Also every NE state is going to Obama, even NH.

It's interesting how it's going state by state.

 

[AceRothstein]

Hey, Liability...
I'll see you at that other forum on Wednesday, aight?



p.s. Now at 85%, which is higher than before the first debate.

Money quote:

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

FiveThirtyEight.



UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

Dim turnout will end up being sluggish overall, at best.

Without a massive 2008 style Dim turnout, The ONE is toast.

Idiotic drivel like FiveThirtyEight cannot tell you that since all they do is regurgitate what the skewed polls have been "finding," based on dopey and inaccurate methodology.

Libs and other delusional types will finally figure it out when the returns from Ohio and Virginia and Colorado shock the pundits and the other sheep incapable of thinking outside of the box.

Mitt is going to win. The incumbent IS going to lose.

Bank on it.

Unskewedpolls

 

[jillian]

unskewed polls?

why not just make up numbers?

oh wait... they are.

 

[EriktheRed]

^magical thinking.

Now, click your ruby slippers together and say, "There's no president but Mitt. There's no president but Mitt."

The magical thinking is mainly from the brain dead tools who refuse to accept the OBVIOUS flaws with the major polls.

I harbor some small hope that you need not be one of them much longer.

Three more days until Liability runs away like a little sissy. You really ought to puke up all your sophmoric polemic before then.

Like I said before, he won't run away. He'll just keep acting the same way no matter how much shit he talks now.

 

[Toro]

Obama is going to win. He is leading in too many swing states. There has to be a real national swing at the last minute for him to lose.

Can that happen? Sure. But the odds aren't great that it will.

 

[Dot Com]

I was watching Charlie Cook talk to Chuck Todd last night and he has Obama up in every swing state except Florida and that is tight. He also said that the Governors are going to be heavy red this year and that has been a trend.

He went through every state for the senate and has Democrats winning by 5 plus one Inde. Also every NE state is going to Obama, even NH.

It's interesting how it's going state by state.

yea. Cook is a bonafide Guru in everything political. He even has his own index for evaluating politicians partisanship. Very useful: Cook Partisan Voting Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

the PVI was refined in 1997 by Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter, working with Polidata, a political statistics analysis firm.

 

[Article 15]

85% chance for Obama now. Is reality setting in yet, nutters?

 

[Article 15]

.

As of this writing, RCP national average showing Obama 47.4, Romney 47.2.

5.4% either undecided or voting for someone else? That sounds pretty high to me.

.

Gary Johnson will pick up a big hunk of that 5%

 

[The Rabbi]

.

As of this writing, RCP national average showing Obama 47.4, Romney 47.2.

5.4% either undecided or voting for someone else? That sounds pretty high to me.

.

Gary Johnson will pick up a big hunk of that 5%

NO, he wont. With the election that close people will think 3 or 4 times before throwing their vote to a loser like Johnson.

 

[Harry Dresden]

well we just about are living in Mexico now.....are we not?....

here is another one.....no one said anything about Mexico.....

you could have fooled me. It seems as if someone actually DID mention Mexico and... oh look... that someone was YOU.

But to your larger point: What we have is immigrants bringing the customs and traditions of their former homes to the USA. Do you honestly think that is some NEW phenomenon that only Mexican and Hispanic immigrants have practiced?

me and Zander were talking about ......S.Cal....and some of its areas......which are just about all Mexican and English the secondary Language......which would give you the IMPRESSION that you are in MEXICO......now do you understand why Mexico was mentioned?....

 

[Article 15]

.

As of this writing, RCP national average showing Obama 47.4, Romney 47.2.

5.4% either undecided or voting for someone else? That sounds pretty high to me.

.

Gary Johnson will pick up a big hunk of that 5%

NO, he wont. With the election that close people will think 3 or 4 times before throwing their vote to a loser like Johnson.

Johnson is going to get anywhere from 2-4 points nationally.

Sucks for you.

 

[Harry Dresden]

Romney is done.

O-H-I-O

Chris will you still post here if Obama loses?....i dont want to miss the Romney people piling on you.....Walkers re-election was just a sample.....this will be worth logging on for....