No Convention Bounce For Biden... He loses points in all polls

[Billy_Bob]

Are you people incapable of comprehending anything you read? Seriously, you are all either serial prevaricators or just plain dumb.

I will break down the article so even the slow end of the class can understand it.

The significant and most likely reason Biden has not received a bounce is because HE IS ALREADY FAR AHEAD, from you own link and to wit:

“But Joe Biden still shouldn’t expect much of a polling bounce.

Biden has already consistently led President Donald Trump in national and battleground state surveys in what has been a remarkably stable race since he emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in March. That stability has also matched the steadiness in Trump’s approval ratings, which have remained in a narrow band throughout his tumultuous presidency


....Another factor weighing in against the likelihood of a significant bounce: Since Biden took hold of the Democratic race in March of this year, he has remained consistently ahead of Trump in the polls, with the margin between the two candidates sitting in a fairly narrow range.”

Notwithstanding of course that significant convention bounces are a thing of the past.

BTW, Billy there was nothing in your link about Biden losing points post convention. That you pulled out of some dark crevice located on your probably enormous backside.

When all you have is Bull Squat and no poll currently has Biden outside the MOE (Margin of Error)... You are going to be sorely disappointed...

 

[JLW]

Are you people incapable of comprehending anything you read? Seriously, you are all either serial prevaricators or just plain dumb.

I will break down the article so even the slow end of the class can understand it.

The significant and most likely reason Biden has not received a bounce is because HE IS ALREADY FAR AHEAD, from you own link and to wit:

“But Joe Biden still shouldn’t expect much of a polling bounce.

Biden has already consistently led President Donald Trump in national and battleground state surveys in what has been a remarkably stable race since he emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in March. That stability has also matched the steadiness in Trump’s approval ratings, which have remained in a narrow band throughout his tumultuous presidency


....Another factor weighing in against the likelihood of a significant bounce: Since Biden took hold of the Democratic race in March of this year, he has remained consistently ahead of Trump in the polls, with the margin between the two candidates sitting in a fairly narrow range.”

Notwithstanding of course that significant convention bounces are a thing of the past.

BTW, Billy there was nothing in your link about Biden losing points post convention. That you pulled out of some dark crevice located on your probably enormous backside.

When all you have is Bull Squat and no poll currently has Biden outside the MOE (Margin of Error)... You are going to be sorely disappointed...

Your own source belies your words.

I agree to the extent that the only poll that matters is on November 3rd.

 

[Muhammed]

Sorry Joe, nobody's afraid of climate change or getting shot at school. Your fear mongering fails.

And then he starts talking about how his family inspires him so much. But he refuses to tell us why the hell Hunter went with him to China.

He refuses to explain why he held back $1 billion loan guarantee to Ukraine until after Shokin, who was investigating Hunter's Burisma, was replaced by a corrupt prosecutor.

He mentions Hunter but then just pretends it never happened. Refuses to address the subject. If he's not going to address the people's concerns regarding Hunter, he probably shouldn't be reminding people of Hunter by bringing him up.

The man is clueless.

 

[Oldestyle]

Shocking! You run a candidate for President who claims that he'll handle the pandemic better than Trump did but who's only real proposal for doing so is using the Federal Government's power to force everyone to wear a mask...and people don't get excited? News flash, Joe! You wouldn't take office until next January even if you DID win! If we still all need to wear masks by then we're FUBARED! We'll have vaccines well before that from the looks of it. Are you STILL going to force me to wear a mask outside? That's idiotic!

Shocking! You run a candidate who's answer to the recession caused by the pandemic is to raise taxes? Didn't ANY of you liberal take a single Economics class when you were in college? There is a reason that the Obama Administration oversaw the slowest recovery from a recession since The Great Depression and it's because nobody IN that Administration seemed to understand BASIC economic fundamentals! Why would ANYONE allow Joe Biden to try and fix our economy? Especially when the "other guy" is the one who gave us one of the strongest economies in decades? That's REALLY idiotic!!!

 

[bigrebnc1775]

A negative outcome for Joe Biden post convention is sending shock waves through the democrat party. Biden actually lost points in every single poll done on Friday. Democrats are apoplectic and scared shitless.

Why Joe Biden’s bounce might not be coming

In recent elections, presidential nominees haven’t seen a significant post-convention increase in support.

www.politico.com

Don't you worry about it dead people still love joe just wait until they are polled since they are actual voters lol

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Joe Biden take your mask mandate and shove it up your ass after I use it to whip my ass taking a healthy leftists democrat

 

[mascale]

HOLY ILLITERACY! JUST LIKE THE TRUMPED-UP, "SITTING ON OF HANDS," INTENDING MURDER OF US NATIONALS--FAILURE TO BELIEVE COVID-19 EXISTS: THERE ARE NO POLL RESULTS IN THE OP! ANYONE IS REMINDED THAT THE TRUMPED-UP PEOPLE DO NOT READ THE DAILY INTEL BRIEFINGS!

So, contrary to the OP, this is in the link in the OP:

"BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.+
__________________
In the link--
Democrats pulled off a mostly successful national party convention this week under extraordinarily challenging circumstances.
But Joe Biden still shouldn’t expect much of a polling bounce.
Biden has already consistently led President Donald Trump in national and battleground state surveys in what has been a remarkably stable race since he emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in March. That stability has also matched the steadiness in Trump’s approval ratings, which have remained in a narrow band throughout his tumultuous presidency.

Also undermining any Biden bump: timing. Trump and the GOP get their chance to pitch voters on four more years starting on Monday — a short turnaround time that makes any kind of sustained polling bounce impossible.

“Usually, when these are back-to-back, you find that the second convention steps on the bump from the first convention,” said Neil Newhouse, who was Mitt Romney ’s lead pollster in the 2012 campaign.

Historically, the national party conventions have produced some massive — though sometimes fleeting — shifts in the state of presidential races in the television era.
The 1992 Democratic convention in New York catapulted Bill Clinton over then-President George H.W. Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot — a 16-point bounce for the Democrat.

But those kinds of changes appear to be a thing of the past. In recent elections, any bounces for the nominees have been muted. In 2016, Trump claimed he came out of his convention in Cleveland with “the biggest bounce that anyone can remember” — an assertion that didn’t match the overall evidence, which showed him with only a small bump. Clinton’s post-convention bump appeared larger in the moment — but the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara concluded Trump had a slight edge on this measure, a 3-point bounce to Clinton’s 2-point uptick.

Four years earlier, then-President Barack Obama got only a modest bounce (3 points), and Romney actually lost a point according to Gallup, which measured the presidential horse race consistently prior to 2016. And in the 2008 election, John McCain (6 points) out-bounced Obama (4 points) — in large part thanks to the initial energy around his surprise pick for vice president, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

In this election, any swings in the electorate from either party's virtual convention would have to come despite the large numbers of voters who say there is no way they will change their mind between now and Election Day.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, pointed to the large number of voters “who are strongly locked into a candidate choice — either because they like a candidate or hate a candidate. It doesn’t matter.”

In a pre-convention Fox News poll, 89 percent of Biden voters said they were “extremely” or “very” committed to voting for the former vice president, while 87 percent of Trump voters were “extremely” or “very” committed to reelecting the incumbent.
“That would suggest we’re not going to see a huge measurable bounce one way or the other — unless it’s a negative bounce” from a poor convention, Murray said.

Another factor weighing in against the likelihood of a significant bounce: Since Biden took hold of the Democratic race in March of this year, he has remained consistently ahead of Trump in the polls, with the margin between the two candidates sitting in a fairly narrow range.

According to the national RealClearPolitics average, Biden led Trump by 6 points on March 18, the day after the final pre-coronavirus presidential primaries were held. That lead dropped as low as 4 points in May and peaked at 10 points in June — but never left that small range.

In the weeks leading up to this year’s virtual Democratic convention, polls showed Trump narrowing the gap slightly, though Biden was still significantly ahead. As of Friday afternoon, he was up by 7.4 percentage points in the RCP average.

Still, BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.

Perhaps more telling than a bounce in the horse race against Trump might be an uptick in voters’ views of Biden. A pre-convention POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed the electorate split evenly on his image: Forty-six percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Biden, while 48 percent viewed him unfavorably. (Trump, by comparison, was viewed favorably by just 39 percent of voters, with 57 percent having an unfavorable view of him.)

But it will also likely be challenging to measure the magnitude of any Biden bounce in a vacuum.

Few pollsters are expected to release numbers in the short time between the end of the Democratic convention on Thursday and the beginning of the Republican confab on Monday.

And even if there are some new national surveys, they will only tell part of the story. There’s been a notable paucity of reliable battleground state polling in the weeks immediately prior to the convention, and Trump’s Electoral College success in 2016 makes those surveys more essential.
“If I’m doing polling for a presidential campaign, I am a helluva lot less interested in whether I got a bump in the national polling, and far more interested in the convention’s impact in our target states,” Newhouse said.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!
(This isn't directly in the OP either, but polls may in fact have been cast into outer darkness: Matt 25: 14-30!)

 

[Bush92]

A negative outcome for Joe Biden post convention is sending shock waves through the democrat party. Biden actually lost points in every single poll done on Friday. Democrats are apoplectic and scared shitless.

Why Joe Biden’s bounce might not be coming

In recent elections, presidential nominees haven’t seen a significant post-convention increase in support.

www.politico.com

The Democrats "Virtual Convention" was an epic failure. No independent voter's watched in even miniscule numbers.

 

[Leo123]

The Democrat 'convention' did absolutely 0 to help Democrats. The 'convention' looked like a patchwork of videos that looked really phony. It looked more like a boring infomercial trying to sell hatred for the current President.

 

[toomuchtime_]

That's ok. We still need to see the results from the Republican's convention.

That's so sad! Joe didn't say a word about children running his hairy legs and still you're not satisfied.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

HOLY ILLITERACY! JUST LIKE THE TRUMPED-UP, "SITTING ON OF HANDS," INTENDING MURDER OF US NATIONALS--FAILURE TO BELIEVE COVID-19 EXISTS: THERE ARE NO POLL RESULTS IN THE OP! ANYONE IS REMINDED THAT THE TRUMPED-UP PEOPLE DO NOT READ THE DAILY INTEL BRIEFINGS!

So, contrary to the OP, this is in the link in the OP:

"BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.+
__________________
In the link--
Democrats pulled off a mostly successful national party convention this week under extraordinarily challenging circumstances.
But Joe Biden still shouldn’t expect much of a polling bounce.
Biden has already consistently led President Donald Trump in national and battleground state surveys in what has been a remarkably stable race since he emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in March. That stability has also matched the steadiness in Trump’s approval ratings, which have remained in a narrow band throughout his tumultuous presidency.

Also undermining any Biden bump: timing. Trump and the GOP get their chance to pitch voters on four more years starting on Monday — a short turnaround time that makes any kind of sustained polling bounce impossible.

“Usually, when these are back-to-back, you find that the second convention steps on the bump from the first convention,” said Neil Newhouse, who was Mitt Romney ’s lead pollster in the 2012 campaign.

Historically, the national party conventions have produced some massive — though sometimes fleeting — shifts in the state of presidential races in the television era.
The 1992 Democratic convention in New York catapulted Bill Clinton over then-President George H.W. Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot — a 16-point bounce for the Democrat.

But those kinds of changes appear to be a thing of the past. In recent elections, any bounces for the nominees have been muted. In 2016, Trump claimed he came out of his convention in Cleveland with “the biggest bounce that anyone can remember” — an assertion that didn’t match the overall evidence, which showed him with only a small bump. Clinton’s post-convention bump appeared larger in the moment — but the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara concluded Trump had a slight edge on this measure, a 3-point bounce to Clinton’s 2-point uptick.

Four years earlier, then-President Barack Obama got only a modest bounce (3 points), and Romney actually lost a point according to Gallup, which measured the presidential horse race consistently prior to 2016. And in the 2008 election, John McCain (6 points) out-bounced Obama (4 points) — in large part thanks to the initial energy around his surprise pick for vice president, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

In this election, any swings in the electorate from either party's virtual convention would have to come despite the large numbers of voters who say there is no way they will change their mind between now and Election Day.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, pointed to the large number of voters “who are strongly locked into a candidate choice — either because they like a candidate or hate a candidate. It doesn’t matter.”

In a pre-convention Fox News poll, 89 percent of Biden voters said they were “extremely” or “very” committed to voting for the former vice president, while 87 percent of Trump voters were “extremely” or “very” committed to reelecting the incumbent.
“That would suggest we’re not going to see a huge measurable bounce one way or the other — unless it’s a negative bounce” from a poor convention, Murray said.

Another factor weighing in against the likelihood of a significant bounce: Since Biden took hold of the Democratic race in March of this year, he has remained consistently ahead of Trump in the polls, with the margin between the two candidates sitting in a fairly narrow range.

According to the national RealClearPolitics average, Biden led Trump by 6 points on March 18, the day after the final pre-coronavirus presidential primaries were held. That lead dropped as low as 4 points in May and peaked at 10 points in June — but never left that small range.

In the weeks leading up to this year’s virtual Democratic convention, polls showed Trump narrowing the gap slightly, though Biden was still significantly ahead. As of Friday afternoon, he was up by 7.4 percentage points in the RCP average.

Still, BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.

Perhaps more telling than a bounce in the horse race against Trump might be an uptick in voters’ views of Biden. A pre-convention POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed the electorate split evenly on his image: Forty-six percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Biden, while 48 percent viewed him unfavorably. (Trump, by comparison, was viewed favorably by just 39 percent of voters, with 57 percent having an unfavorable view of him.)

But it will also likely be challenging to measure the magnitude of any Biden bounce in a vacuum.

Few pollsters are expected to release numbers in the short time between the end of the Democratic convention on Thursday and the beginning of the Republican confab on Monday.

And even if there are some new national surveys, they will only tell part of the story. There’s been a notable paucity of reliable battleground state polling in the weeks immediately prior to the convention, and Trump’s Electoral College success in 2016 makes those surveys more essential.
“If I’m doing polling for a presidential campaign, I am a helluva lot less interested in whether I got a bump in the national polling, and far more interested in the convention’s impact in our target states,” Newhouse said.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!
(This isn't directly in the OP either, but polls may in fact have been cast into outer darkness: Matt 25: 14-30!)

Well if any of that were true viewership of the DNC would have been much higher than they are. Bidens convention had 28% less than 2016.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

The Democrat 'convention' did absolutely 0 to help Democrats. The 'convention' looked like a patchwork of videos that looked really phony. It looked more like a boring infomercial trying to sell hatred for the current President.

it looked like a low-grade infomercial that you would see at the 2am hour.

 

[Kondor3]

A negative outcome for Joe Biden post convention is sending shock waves through the democrat party. Biden actually lost points in every single poll done on Friday. Democrats are apoplectic and scared shitless.

Why Joe Biden’s bounce might not be coming

In recent elections, presidential nominees haven’t seen a significant post-convention increase in support.

www.politico.com

Aren't you characters the ones telling us not to put too much stock in polls?

 

[jknowgood]

HOLY ILLITERACY! JUST LIKE THE TRUMPED-UP, "SITTING ON OF HANDS," INTENDING MURDER OF US NATIONALS--FAILURE TO BELIEVE COVID-19 EXISTS: THERE ARE NO POLL RESULTS IN THE OP! ANYONE IS REMINDED THAT THE TRUMPED-UP PEOPLE DO NOT READ THE DAILY INTEL BRIEFINGS!

So, contrary to the OP, this is in the link in the OP:

"BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.+
__________________
In the link--
Democrats pulled off a mostly successful national party convention this week under extraordinarily challenging circumstances.
But Joe Biden still shouldn’t expect much of a polling bounce.
Biden has already consistently led President Donald Trump in national and battleground state surveys in what has been a remarkably stable race since he emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in March. That stability has also matched the steadiness in Trump’s approval ratings, which have remained in a narrow band throughout his tumultuous presidency.

Also undermining any Biden bump: timing. Trump and the GOP get their chance to pitch voters on four more years starting on Monday — a short turnaround time that makes any kind of sustained polling bounce impossible.

“Usually, when these are back-to-back, you find that the second convention steps on the bump from the first convention,” said Neil Newhouse, who was Mitt Romney ’s lead pollster in the 2012 campaign.

Historically, the national party conventions have produced some massive — though sometimes fleeting — shifts in the state of presidential races in the television era.
The 1992 Democratic convention in New York catapulted Bill Clinton over then-President George H.W. Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot — a 16-point bounce for the Democrat.

But those kinds of changes appear to be a thing of the past. In recent elections, any bounces for the nominees have been muted. In 2016, Trump claimed he came out of his convention in Cleveland with “the biggest bounce that anyone can remember” — an assertion that didn’t match the overall evidence, which showed him with only a small bump. Clinton’s post-convention bump appeared larger in the moment — but the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara concluded Trump had a slight edge on this measure, a 3-point bounce to Clinton’s 2-point uptick.

Four years earlier, then-President Barack Obama got only a modest bounce (3 points), and Romney actually lost a point according to Gallup, which measured the presidential horse race consistently prior to 2016. And in the 2008 election, John McCain (6 points) out-bounced Obama (4 points) — in large part thanks to the initial energy around his surprise pick for vice president, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

In this election, any swings in the electorate from either party's virtual convention would have to come despite the large numbers of voters who say there is no way they will change their mind between now and Election Day.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, pointed to the large number of voters “who are strongly locked into a candidate choice — either because they like a candidate or hate a candidate. It doesn’t matter.”

In a pre-convention Fox News poll, 89 percent of Biden voters said they were “extremely” or “very” committed to voting for the former vice president, while 87 percent of Trump voters were “extremely” or “very” committed to reelecting the incumbent.
“That would suggest we’re not going to see a huge measurable bounce one way or the other — unless it’s a negative bounce” from a poor convention, Murray said.

Another factor weighing in against the likelihood of a significant bounce: Since Biden took hold of the Democratic race in March of this year, he has remained consistently ahead of Trump in the polls, with the margin between the two candidates sitting in a fairly narrow range.

According to the national RealClearPolitics average, Biden led Trump by 6 points on March 18, the day after the final pre-coronavirus presidential primaries were held. That lead dropped as low as 4 points in May and peaked at 10 points in June — but never left that small range.

In the weeks leading up to this year’s virtual Democratic convention, polls showed Trump narrowing the gap slightly, though Biden was still significantly ahead. As of Friday afternoon, he was up by 7.4 percentage points in the RCP average.

Still, BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.

Perhaps more telling than a bounce in the horse race against Trump might be an uptick in voters’ views of Biden. A pre-convention POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed the electorate split evenly on his image: Forty-six percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Biden, while 48 percent viewed him unfavorably. (Trump, by comparison, was viewed favorably by just 39 percent of voters, with 57 percent having an unfavorable view of him.)

But it will also likely be challenging to measure the magnitude of any Biden bounce in a vacuum.

Few pollsters are expected to release numbers in the short time between the end of the Democratic convention on Thursday and the beginning of the Republican confab on Monday.

And even if there are some new national surveys, they will only tell part of the story. There’s been a notable paucity of reliable battleground state polling in the weeks immediately prior to the convention, and Trump’s Electoral College success in 2016 makes those surveys more essential.
“If I’m doing polling for a presidential campaign, I am a helluva lot less interested in whether I got a bump in the national polling, and far more interested in the convention’s impact in our target states,” Newhouse said.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!
(This isn't directly in the OP either, but polls may in fact have been cast into outer darkness: Matt 25: 14-30!)

Get your pussy hat ready! You going to need it.

 

[Billy_Bob]

HOLY ILLITERACY! JUST LIKE THE TRUMPED-UP, "SITTING ON OF HANDS," INTENDING MURDER OF US NATIONALS--FAILURE TO BELIEVE COVID-19 EXISTS: THERE ARE NO POLL RESULTS IN THE OP! ANYONE IS REMINDED THAT THE TRUMPED-UP PEOPLE DO NOT READ THE DAILY INTEL BRIEFINGS!

So, contrary to the OP, this is in the link in the OP:

"BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.+
__________________
In the link--
Democrats pulled off a mostly successful national party convention this week under extraordinarily challenging circumstances.
But Joe Biden still shouldn’t expect much of a polling bounce.
Biden has already consistently led President Donald Trump in national and battleground state surveys in what has been a remarkably stable race since he emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in March. That stability has also matched the steadiness in Trump’s approval ratings, which have remained in a narrow band throughout his tumultuous presidency.

Also undermining any Biden bump: timing. Trump and the GOP get their chance to pitch voters on four more years starting on Monday — a short turnaround time that makes any kind of sustained polling bounce impossible.

“Usually, when these are back-to-back, you find that the second convention steps on the bump from the first convention,” said Neil Newhouse, who was Mitt Romney ’s lead pollster in the 2012 campaign.

Historically, the national party conventions have produced some massive — though sometimes fleeting — shifts in the state of presidential races in the television era.
The 1992 Democratic convention in New York catapulted Bill Clinton over then-President George H.W. Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot — a 16-point bounce for the Democrat.

But those kinds of changes appear to be a thing of the past. In recent elections, any bounces for the nominees have been muted. In 2016, Trump claimed he came out of his convention in Cleveland with “the biggest bounce that anyone can remember” — an assertion that didn’t match the overall evidence, which showed him with only a small bump. Clinton’s post-convention bump appeared larger in the moment — but the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara concluded Trump had a slight edge on this measure, a 3-point bounce to Clinton’s 2-point uptick.

Four years earlier, then-President Barack Obama got only a modest bounce (3 points), and Romney actually lost a point according to Gallup, which measured the presidential horse race consistently prior to 2016. And in the 2008 election, John McCain (6 points) out-bounced Obama (4 points) — in large part thanks to the initial energy around his surprise pick for vice president, then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

In this election, any swings in the electorate from either party's virtual convention would have to come despite the large numbers of voters who say there is no way they will change their mind between now and Election Day.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, pointed to the large number of voters “who are strongly locked into a candidate choice — either because they like a candidate or hate a candidate. It doesn’t matter.”

In a pre-convention Fox News poll, 89 percent of Biden voters said they were “extremely” or “very” committed to voting for the former vice president, while 87 percent of Trump voters were “extremely” or “very” committed to reelecting the incumbent.
“That would suggest we’re not going to see a huge measurable bounce one way or the other — unless it’s a negative bounce” from a poor convention, Murray said.

Another factor weighing in against the likelihood of a significant bounce: Since Biden took hold of the Democratic race in March of this year, he has remained consistently ahead of Trump in the polls, with the margin between the two candidates sitting in a fairly narrow range.

According to the national RealClearPolitics average, Biden led Trump by 6 points on March 18, the day after the final pre-coronavirus presidential primaries were held. That lead dropped as low as 4 points in May and peaked at 10 points in June — but never left that small range.

In the weeks leading up to this year’s virtual Democratic convention, polls showed Trump narrowing the gap slightly, though Biden was still significantly ahead. As of Friday afternoon, he was up by 7.4 percentage points in the RCP average.

Still, BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.

Perhaps more telling than a bounce in the horse race against Trump might be an uptick in voters’ views of Biden. A pre-convention POLITICO/Morning Consult poll showed the electorate split evenly on his image: Forty-six percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Biden, while 48 percent viewed him unfavorably. (Trump, by comparison, was viewed favorably by just 39 percent of voters, with 57 percent having an unfavorable view of him.)

But it will also likely be challenging to measure the magnitude of any Biden bounce in a vacuum.

Few pollsters are expected to release numbers in the short time between the end of the Democratic convention on Thursday and the beginning of the Republican confab on Monday.

And even if there are some new national surveys, they will only tell part of the story. There’s been a notable paucity of reliable battleground state polling in the weeks immediately prior to the convention, and Trump’s Electoral College success in 2016 makes those surveys more essential.
“If I’m doing polling for a presidential campaign, I am a helluva lot less interested in whether I got a bump in the national polling, and far more interested in the convention’s impact in our target states,” Newhouse said.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!
(This isn't directly in the OP either, but polls may in fact have been cast into outer darkness: Matt 25: 14-30!)

This is exactly why the democrats are in shear panic mode... They built him up and the people said NOPE! Obviously they DIDN'T buy the BULL SHIT your side is spreading...

 

[Norman]

Are you people incapable of comprehending anything you read? Seriously, you are all either serial prevaricators or just plain dumb.

I will break down the article so even the slow end of the class can understand it.

The significant and most likely reason Biden has not received a bounce is because HE IS ALREADY FAR AHEAD, from you own link and to wit:

“But Joe Biden still shouldn’t expect much of a polling bounce.

Biden has already consistently led President Donald Trump in national and battleground state surveys in what has been a remarkably stable race since he emerged as the Democratic frontrunner in March. That stability has also matched the steadiness in Trump’s approval ratings, which have remained in a narrow band throughout his tumultuous presidency


....Another factor weighing in against the likelihood of a significant bounce: Since Biden took hold of the Democratic race in March of this year, he has remained consistently ahead of Trump in the polls, with the margin between the two candidates sitting in a fairly narrow range.”

Notwithstanding of course that significant convention bounces are a thing of the past.

BTW, Billy there was nothing in your link about Biden losing points post convention. That you pulled out of some dark crevice located on your probably enormous backside.

When all you have is Bull Squat and no poll currently has Biden outside the MOE (Margin of Error)... You are going to be sorely disappointed...

Last time Trump beat Hillary easily even with a 98% chance that Hillary would win.

Trump slide incoming!

Every American will go and vote according to their duty.

 

[Leo123]

Aren't you characters the ones telling us not to put too much stock in polls?

Who needs polls? All you had to do was watch that Democrat debacle to know the Democrats fell flat on their faces. That is if one could actually stay awake during that hurricane, shit-storm of hatred.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

A negative outcome for Joe Biden post convention is sending shock waves through the democrat party. Biden actually lost points in every single poll done on Friday. Democrats are apoplectic and scared shitless.

Why Joe Biden’s bounce might not be coming

In recent elections, presidential nominees haven’t seen a significant post-convention increase in support.

www.politico.com

Aren't you characters the ones telling us not to put too much stock in polls?

true at least I don't but when a poll matchs the metrics of the polls I conduct it's telling me I'm on track to be correct again in 2020 just as I was in 2016

 

[Flash]

Biden is a terrible candidate, even for the Party of Moon Bats that is known for their asshole candidates.

When we have the Trump landslide in November the Moon Bats have nobody to blame but themselves.

Commie Bernie is an asshole and is wrong on every issue but he would have made a better candidate than this Biden Clown.

You would have thought that after that shithead Crooked Hillary the Moon Bats couldn't have come up with a worse candidate but they did.

 

[mascale]

So Chortle and Guffaw! Maybe a dozen posters post Anti-Biden, illiterate incoherence. They they post, "Look at the polls, even:" In a link that has none(?)!

SEE THE ZERO SUPPORT, NATIONWIDE, SHOWN TO BE CASE ABOUT THE TRUMPED-UP ADMINISTRATION(?)!
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HOLY ILLITERACY! JUST LIKE THE TRUMPED-UP, "SITTING ON OF HANDS," INTENDING MURDER OF US NATIONALS--FAILURE TO BELIEVE COVID-19 EXISTS: THERE ARE NO POLL RESULTS IN THE OP!

So, contrary to the OP, this is in the link in the OP:

"BIDEN HAS RECEIVED GENERALLY HIGH MARKS FOR HIS ACCEPTANCE SPEACH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. Between those strong reviews and the smooth operations of a complicated and irregular convention — the anecdotal media coverage has been mostly positive, which could feed into any improvement in Biden’s poll numbers.+

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(This there is: Matt 25: 14-30!)