Official USMB Mafia Game #2: Enter the Godfather

[CaféAuLait]

Gosh this is soooo confusing.... I watch as people come to their conclusions, its obvious, I need to pay attention more.

 

[manifold]

I don't like this post. Why would any townie suggest a no lynch on the first day? I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that Wake said this generally does not benefit town. AND, it gives scum a free night kill. True, that could be blocked but why would town take that chance? Scum knows who they are, town doesn't. So all this does is give a much higher chance for the mafia to take someone out and no chance for town to take out scum.

manifold is now suspicious to me

But Manifold actually voted to lynch someone....Grandma is the only one that has voted "no lynch"....Manifold actually was saying that a "no lynch" would hurt us townies more than lynching one of our own, so why is that making you suspicious of Manifold? A scum would benefit more from a "no lynch" than a townie....so if anyone would look suspicious for suggesting it would be Grandma, but then, she may just be saying she's not ready to name who she wants lynched?

I think the fact that manifold even discussed a no lynch on the first day is suspicious. Grandma just doesn't want to vote yet is what I got from her. I'm just looking for any little clue because we don't have a lot to go on yet. He can explain himself and if I'm satisfied with it, I'll switch to mebelle. She hasn't contributed much so I'm suspicious of her too.

At the risk of arousing the suspicions of ACSY, in the previous game I managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I really don't want to do that again so I'm just trying to consider every option a little more carefully this time around. That said, the more I think about it the more I think a no lynch vote is a bad move for the town, even though the odds of us lynching mafia right out of the gate might be slim. A no lynch means zero chance of getting lucky and lynching mafia, and even if we lynch a townie we learn more from that than we would a no lynch vote.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Potential Scum

strollingbones - has not posted since the game began

RosieS - for making excuses for strollingbones, even though strollingbones has been posting in other parts of the forum

Mertex - for trying to distract players by bringing up the previous game

I'll have more later, since I've been doing this from work.

Well I brought up the previous game as well. I don't think that is an indicator. In fact many have brought up the previous game speaking about Avatar.

I have read this thread and I have ideas of who the scum are... not sure if I want to post yet or if I should post it yet, Ill wait a few more days and keep reading.

 

[Avatar4321]

Potential Scum

strollingbones - has not posted since the game began

RosieS - for making excuses for strollingbones, even though strollingbones has been posting in other parts of the forum

Mertex - for trying to distract players by bringing up the previous game

I'll have more later, since I've been doing this from work.

Well I brought up the previous game as well. I don't think that is an indicator. In fact many have brought up the previous game speaking about Avatar.

I have read this thread and I have ideas of who the scum are... not sure if I want to post yet or if I should post it yet, Ill wait a few more days and keep reading.

That is what I get for being popular

 

[AyeCantSeeYou]

Potential Scum

strollingbones - has not posted since the game began

RosieS - for making excuses for strollingbones, even though strollingbones has been posting in other parts of the forum

Mertex - for trying to distract players by bringing up the previous game

I'll have more later, since I've been doing this from work.

Oh puleeze. Go read the "wish me luck" thread. Bones has a valid excused absence.

Vote: ACSY for being a failed hall monitor.

Can we have. a volunteer to be hall monitor for the rest of this week?

Thanks in advance.

Regards from Rosie
.

Hall monitor? Hardly! Just doing what several others are doing - throwing out names and reasons, whether it makes sense or not. It's good that you responded the way you did though - makes me rethink what I've read so far.

 

[Avatar4321]

Reviewed the posts finally. I see absolutely nothing standing out.

I am thinking though, if I were the scum, I would be focusing on direction suspicions to obvious players and away from me. Maybe we should be looking at people who aren't getting alot of attention.

R.D. Mertex and Rosie seem a bit suspicious to me right now.

I am also thinking maybe Wolfsister and grandma since they wouldn't normally be my first guess here.

I don't think mani or mebelle are scum. But I reserve the right to change my mind on that.

And, of course, I know how cunning Shaitra can be. The others, im still watching.

I'm going to go with my gut on this initial vote. I am well aware we may be changing where we are later.

Vote: R.D

 

[Shaitra]

I'm going to be busy at work today, so I may not get much time to post from there.

Gosh this is soooo confusing.... I watch as people come to their conclusions, its obvious, I need to pay attention more.

Re-reading the thread and this stuck out to me. Is it first game confusion, or an attempt to fly under the radar?

Other thoughts: Mertex and Avatar appear to be playing the same way they did the last game. Chances are pretty small that Avatar drew mafia again, though it could happen. Chances of drawing town are much bigger so for now I'm leaning town for both.

Rosie also appears to be playing similar to last game. But for some reason something seems off. Leaning towards scum right now.

 

[manifold]

Chances are pretty small that Avatar drew mafia again, though it could happen.

I'm thinking Avatar is town right now too, since he's not posting a mile a minute this time. But statistically speaking, everyone had the same chance of drawing mafia in this game and who anyone was in the previous game has no bearing on that.

 

[manifold]

Chances are pretty small that Avatar drew mafia again, though it could happen.

I'm thinking Avatar is town right now too, since he's not posting a mile a minute this time. But statistically speaking, everyone had the same chance of drawing mafia in this game and who anyone was in the previous game has no bearing on that.

Ha!

I posted that before I checked the post totals and Avatar again tops the list. Only this time he's not 3x more than second place.

 

[manifold]

Who posted

Avatar4321 39
Wolfsister77 21
Mertex 17
AyeCantSeeYou 16
Grandma 14
Shaitra 14
dblack 10
Wake 8
CaféAuLait 7
RosieS 7
manifold 6
Ropey 5
R.D. 3
MeBelle60 2

 

[RosieS]

Otay, otay, I will quit playing with AVG_JOE in the main threads and post more here. Better?

I am also freshly showered and now tied in posting numbers with Wake.

Feel better about my being townie, now?

Le Sigh.

Good mornin', all!

Regards from Rosie

 

[Wolfsister77]

That list helps mani. I think those that have been around and not helping are suspicious. Bones, due to health, I'll exclude from that.

I'm going to be pretty busy today but I do think the only way we move forward is to start voting folks and coming up with some analysis on who we think are what even if we don't have much to go on. There's time before the deadline but I don't see much movement unless some of us start doing that.

I have taken note of how protective of mani that Mertex is. She temp voted mebelle as soon as mebelle voted for mani and defended him after I voted for him, even went so far as to say I could be working with mebelle to bring him down.

Still, I really don't like mebelle's being around and being absolutely not helpful in the least.

dblack gave a great explanation on why we should use the previous game to help us, so he's less suspicious now that he's contributed some good material, I do not like how he mentioned to get rid of good players, good players are needed for town because town has a much more investigative role where scum just has to play good enough to avoid a lynch

Avatar seems really, really strong town to me. Stronger than anyone else right now.

Shaitra I'm putting more in the town category than yesterday.

So, I'm probably going to switch my vote to mebelle but mani only has two right now including mine and 8 are needed to lynch so I'll go ahead and leave my vote on him for now. That can, and probably will change, closer to deadline. I just don't see the need to change my vote for a 3rd time yet. I'll slow it down for a bit until more say things.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Above I mean voting for a 3rd person already. Can't edit.

 

[Mertex]

I know some of you don't like that some of us are bringing up the last game, but in a way, it can be helpful so we don't make the same mistakes.

Last time, the Mafia (Avatar) kept posting that he didn't think I was Mafia (of course, he being Mafia knew damn well I wasn't) - but he, saying that, warmed me up to him and made me think he was a Townie. So, my advice to every Townie, be aware of anyone that posts that they are pretty sure that you are Townie, it seems like a gimmick to get your confidence and get you to think they are just like you.

Remember, the Mafia knows who the Townies are, and if anyone of you votes for one of them, be looking for you to disappear the night after the killing. I should have paid more attention, when Rosie was so sure it was Avatar, she was gone that night.

So, remember, if I disappear during the night....be looking at MeBelle if someone else gets the majority of votes, she'll be looking to get rid of me.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Well, regardless of Mertex's advice, I still think Avatar is town. If I'm wrong, I totally suck at this game and/or he's really good at it.

I think we eventually need to start voting and saying who we think is town or who we think is scum or the game will stagnate and go nowhere.

How can anyone really be sure if no one says much and everyone is too cautious? If I go down the first night, that does not necessarily mean I lose. So, If someone is suspicious, I'm going to say so out loud. That can help others if I die at night. They know who to suspect next.

That's just me and how I prefer to play. It could be a bad idea or a good one. Hard to say. I'll learn.

This will be my last post for a few hours. I have lots of work to do today.

If mebelle doesn't say more when she's around tonight, I will switch my vote to her tomorrow and leave it there.

I want helpers, not looky loos.

LOL

 

[Avatar4321]

Chances are pretty small that Avatar drew mafia again, though it could happen.

I'm thinking Avatar is town right now too, since he's not posting a mile a minute this time. But statistically speaking, everyone had the same chance of drawing mafia in this game and who anyone was in the previous game has no bearing on that.

Ha!

I posted that before I checked the post totals and Avatar again tops the list. Only this time he's not 3x more than second place.

Told you I'm loquacious.

 

[dblack]

I know some of you don't like that some of us are bringing up the last game, but in a way, it can be helpful so we don't make the same mistakes.

Last time, the Mafia (Avatar) kept posting that he didn't think I was Mafia (of course, he being Mafia knew damn well I wasn't) - but he, saying that, warmed me up to him and made me think he was a Townie. So, my advice to every Townie, be aware of anyone that posts that they are pretty sure that you are Townie, it seems like a gimmick to get your confidence and get you to think they are just like you.

Remember, the Mafia knows who the Townies are, and if anyone of you votes for one of them, be looking for you to disappear the night after the killing. I should have paid more attention, when Rosie was so sure it was Avatar, she was gone that night.

So, remember, if I disappear during the night....be looking at MeBelle if someone else gets the majority of votes, she'll be looking to get rid of me.

Excellent advice. Except for the last bit, which is just a standard defensive play (though nothing wrong with that ).

Reviewed the posts finally. I see absolutely nothing standing out.

I am thinking though, if I were the scum, I would be focusing on direction suspicions to obvious players and away from me. Maybe we should be looking at people who aren't getting alot of attention.

R.D. Mertex and Rosie seem a bit suspicious to me right now.

I am also thinking maybe Wolfsister and grandma since they wouldn't normally be my first guess here.

I don't think mani or mebelle are scum. But I reserve the right to change my mind on that.

And, of course, I know how cunning Shaitra can be. The others, im still watching.

I'm going to go with my gut on this initial vote. I am well aware we may be changing where we are later.

Vote: R.D

Why R.D.? Not defending him, rather looking for a reason to vote for someone. Do you have anything more than a hunch?

dblack gave a great explanation on why we should use the previous game to help us, so he's less suspicious now that he's contributed some good material, I do not like how he mentioned to get rid of good players, good players are needed for town because town has a much more investigative role where scum just has to play good enough to avoid a lynch.

That's a good point, actually. It's not so much 'good' players we'd want to target, but those proven adept at deception. Which is arguably a different skill than being observant and strategic. In any case, one game doesn't establish much of a track record and I'm not (necessarily) suggesting we lynch Avi out of the gate. Unless it's just for spite. That might be fun.

Still not seeing a compelling case, but I agree we should keep everyone talking.

 

[Avatar4321]

The mafia does know who us townies are. which is why we should be careful of when someone is being focused on.

 

[Avatar4321]

I know some of you don't like that some of us are bringing up the last game, but in a way, it can be helpful so we don't make the same mistakes.

Last time, the Mafia (Avatar) kept posting that he didn't think I was Mafia (of course, he being Mafia knew damn well I wasn't) - but he, saying that, warmed me up to him and made me think he was a Townie. So, my advice to every Townie, be aware of anyone that posts that they are pretty sure that you are Townie, it seems like a gimmick to get your confidence and get you to think they are just like you.

Remember, the Mafia knows who the Townies are, and if anyone of you votes for one of them, be looking for you to disappear the night after the killing. I should have paid more attention, when Rosie was so sure it was Avatar, she was gone that night.

So, remember, if I disappear during the night....be looking at MeBelle if someone else gets the majority of votes, she'll be looking to get rid of me.

Excellent advice. Except for the last bit, which is just a standard defensive play (though nothing wrong with that ).

Reviewed the posts finally. I see absolutely nothing standing out.

I am thinking though, if I were the scum, I would be focusing on direction suspicions to obvious players and away from me. Maybe we should be looking at people who aren't getting alot of attention.

R.D. Mertex and Rosie seem a bit suspicious to me right now.

I am also thinking maybe Wolfsister and grandma since they wouldn't normally be my first guess here.

I don't think mani or mebelle are scum. But I reserve the right to change my mind on that.

And, of course, I know how cunning Shaitra can be. The others, im still watching.

I'm going to go with my gut on this initial vote. I am well aware we may be changing where we are later.

Vote: R.D

Why R.D.? Not defending him, rather looking for a reason to vote for someone. Do you have anything more than a hunch?

dblack gave a great explanation on why we should use the previous game to help us, so he's less suspicious now that he's contributed some good material, I do not like how he mentioned to get rid of good players, good players are needed for town because town has a much more investigative role where scum just has to play good enough to avoid a lynch.

That's a good point, actually. It's not so much 'good' players we'd want to target, but those proven adept at deception. Which is arguably a different skill than being observant and strategic. In any case, one game doesn't establish much of a track record and I'm not (necessarily) suggesting we lynch Avi out of the gate. Unless it's just for spite. That might be fun.

Still not seeing a compelling case, but I agree we should keep everyone talking.

Noticed she was agreeing with alot of people. Not really adding much to the discussion, but being friendly. And I think the scum are likely going to be people who aren't being targeted initially. I admit it's mostly gut. But you can't learn anything until you make a gut call and see if any more information is revealed.

 

[Avatar4321]

I have to say this is alot tougher not knowing who the bad guys are.