Oil discoveries dispel "Peak Oil" as myth

[JiggsCasey]

You wouldn't know a geologic argument if it bit you in the ass. I am a geologist and am also a qualified geologic illustrator (I do much better work than the juvenile efforts you linked too!) and have had plenty of experience doing core data interpretation. Your arguments are based on nothing but a willful ignorance perpetrated by the oil companies who want to elevate the price of oil.

Congrats you have graduated from ignorant twerp to useful idiot.

Yes, you keep saying this. Unfortunately, when challenged to get into such data interpretation, you've avoided it. Sorry, but using Occam's Razor, and considering your repeated unwillingness to simply provide even a vague numerical figure for how much proven reserves you believe we have here in the U.S., I'm going to side with the most obvious explanation: You're full of crap.

At best, it seems your alleged industry you keep pretentiously bragging about is so irrelevant to the topic being discussed, you have no idea what I seem to be asking of you.

Do you wanna debate global oil depletion, or do you wanna play games and boast about how awesome you think you are?

 

[Big Fitz]

Peak oil: as real as man made Global Warming

Peak Oil and Anthropogenic Global Warming. So manmade that it would have to read 'all artificial ingredients' on it's packaging.

Nothing real about it.

 

[Londoner]

LOL.... you read the story, didn't you? What's the total they think they've found? Curiously no mention of that. Yawn.

Do better.

The situation is simple.

Oil is a high profit substance.

Person 'X' owns the oil.

It is in 'X's best interest to make sure that the political and ideological climate protect his profit source, lest the market gets wise and starts investing in less petrol-intensive solutions.

Therefore, it is absolutely logical for X to invest in politics and media - to control laws and minds.

Politics

- X pays politicians to block conservation methods (so America has to use the maximum amount of oil, thus driving up the price).
- X Pays politicians to block energy competition, like the measures used to crush alternative energy in the early 80s or the first electric car movement in CA, in the 90s.
- X pays politicians for deregulation which enables anti-consumer market manipulation.
- X pays politicians for unaffordable military intervention around the globe (to secure access to petroleum in unstable regions), rather than using the money to diminish American dependence on foreign oil.

Media

- X gives money to think tanks, publishing groups, and mass media outlets for the sole purpose of producing evidence, premises, conclusions, stories, books, facts, and information which protects his interests, one of which is to defeat anything which would diminish the monopoly of oil.

Starting in the 60s . . . when the right started to radicalize and purge itself of moderates, and Goldwater/Nixon/Wallace were building the southern strategy to bust the New Deal coalition,
movement Conservatism started building a highly efficient machine which would channel profits into politics and media - their goal was to form a perfect synergy between business and the wider political/media scape. This machine would evolve into the most powerful lobbying infrastructure in world history. This machine would enable the right to move profits seamlessly into something so powerful that it could turn Bin Laden into Hussein and Health Care into death panels. - a machine so powerful that it could invent intelligence to start a dubious war, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent people, while the same machine could impeach the other party's president for an extramarital affair. This is called power.

The left has been asleep ever since the great postwar New Deal era ended. Once they splintered into social movements, they lacked the means to federate into an efficient, unified machine. They now lack the ability to promote and spread their vision. They don't have a centralized processing center which funnels money into a powerful, comprehensive bullhorn. Despite Clinton's successful effort to co-opt big business, they are still playing catch-up: business only supports democrats when it's a "democratic election cycle" or a "democratic district", otherwise they would much prefer investing in the more business-friendly GOP. The Left can't even reach old people who want Government to get its dirty hands off their medicare. There is a broad cross section of poor people out there who are voting against their economic interests because the Left does not have a machine in place to speak to these people. On the other hand, when G W Bush spoke, his machine would spread the message to an unfathomably large army of people who would pepper the airwaves and fill message-rooms, blogs, and TV & radio, repeating his narrative of terrorism, freedom, evil doers, WMD, and free markets endlessly until it became part of the factual backdrop. When Obama speaks, his words are twisted by the same machine. He has no bullhorn. He is out-shouted by a bigger, louder machine.

The game is over. America is ruled by one party. When will the Left admit that their 30 year failure to federate has placed them in a hole of persistent surrender and compromise? When will they admit to the base that the battle has been lost more comprehensively than anyone can imagine?

 

[Big Fitz]

LOL.... you read the story, didn't you? What's the total they think they've found? Curiously no mention of that. Yawn.

Do better.

The situation is simple.

Oil is a high profit substance.

Person 'X' owns the oil.

It is in 'X's best interest to make sure that the political and ideological climate protect his profit source, lest the market gets wise and starts investing in less petrol-intensive solutions.

Therefore, it is absolutely logical for X to invest in politics and media - to control laws and minds.

Politics

- X pays politicians to block conservation methods (so America has to use the maximum amount of oil, thus driving up the price).
- X Pays politicians to block energy competition, like the measures used to crush alternative energy in the early 80s or the first electric car movement in CA, in the 90s.
- X pays politicians for deregulation which enables anti-consumer market manipulation.
- X pays politicians for unaffordable military intervention around the globe (to secure access to petroleum in unstable regions), rather than using the money to diminish American dependence on foreign oil.

Media

- X gives money to think tanks, publishing groups, and mass media outlets for the sole purpose of producing evidence, premises, conclusions, stories, books, facts, and information which protects his interests, one of which is to defeat anything which would diminish the monopoly of oil.

Starting in the 60s . . . when the right started to radicalize and purge itself of moderates, and Goldwater/Nixon/Wallace were building the southern strategy to bust the New Deal coalition,
movement Conservatism started building a highly efficient machine which would channel profits into politics and media - their goal was to form a perfect synergy between business and the wider political/media scape. This machine would evolve into the most powerful lobbying infrastructure in world history. This machine would enable the right to move profits seamlessly into something so powerful that it could turn Bin Laden into Hussein and Health Care into death panels. - a machine so powerful that it could invent intelligence to start a dubious war, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent people, while the same machine could impeach the other party's president for an extramarital affair. This is called power.

The left has been asleep ever since the great postwar New Deal era ended. Once they splintered into social movements, they lacked the means to federate into an efficient, unified machine. They now lack the ability to promote and spread their vision. They don't have a centralized processing center which funnels money into a powerful, comprehensive bullhorn. Despite Clinton's successful effort to co-opt big business, they are still playing catch-up: business only supports democrats when it's a "democratic election cycle" or a "democratic district", otherwise they would much prefer investing in the more business-friendly GOP. The Left can't even reach old people who want Government to get its dirty hands off their medicare. There is a broad cross section of poor people out there who are voting against their economic interests because the Left does not have a machine in place to speak to these people. On the other hand, when G W Bush spoke, his machine would spread the message to an unfathomably large army of people who would pepper the airwaves and fill message-rooms, blogs, and TV & radio, repeating his narrative of terrorism, freedom, evil doers, WMD, and free markets endlessly until it became part of the factual backdrop. When Obama speaks, his words are twisted by the same machine. He has no bullhorn. He is out-shouted by a bigger, louder machine.

The game is over. America is ruled by one party. When will the Left admit that their 30 year failure to federate has placed them in a hole of persistent surrender and compromise? When will they admit to the base that the battle has been lost more comprehensively than anyone can imagine?

well that's delusional.

Oil is not a 'high profit substance'. You can buy 55 gallons of it for less than 100 bucks. The profit margin on it is less than 8%. You want a high profit margin? Look at Hedge Funds. 80% That's a profit margin. Ounce for ounce Printer Ink is the most expensive liquid in the world.

And the green econazis have been making this political mess possible since 1970. Surrendering? Don't I wish they were. No, they've gone Mount Suribachi on us. If they don't die in a banzai charge, they are boobytrapping their bodies as they fall.

 

[JiggsCasey]

LOL.... you read the story, didn't you? What's the total they think they've found? Curiously no mention of that. Yawn.

Do better.

The situation is simple.

Oil is a high profit substance.

Person 'X' owns the oil.

It is in 'X's best interest to make sure that the political and ideological climate protect his profit source, lest the market gets wise and starts investing in less petrol-intensive solutions.

Therefore, it is absolutely logical for X to invest in politics and media - to control laws and minds.

Cool story, bro. "Logical" even.

So, we'll pencil you in for the baseless conspiracy angle also. Noted.

Anyhoo, dozens of posters have now been challenged... Taunted even.... to show where it is. ... Yet not a single one of them is apparently able to quantify where "plenty" of oil actually is in any proven amount, domestic of otherwise, nor are they able to dispute the fact that tar sands and oil shale will not sustain growth the way light crude has.

And on and on the dancing goes. Nothing is more telling throughout this sub-forum than the denail camp's utter silence in response to this ultimate question. Lot's of smoke and mirrors though. .... Great stuff.

 

[Mr.Fitnah]

Sorry jiggs, there is no there there, you are just a kook hollering about made up things things pretending you know things.
Best to stop and just pretend it never happened and post about your favorite color or shapes you used to recognize .

 

[JiggsCasey]

Sorry jiggs, there is no there there, you are just a kook hollering about made up things things pretending you know things.
Best to stop and just pretend it never happened and post about your favorite color or shapes you used to recognize .

Don't be sorry. Just answer the question, or accept that your platform is baseless.

I'll just keep calling you on your latest round of horseshit: Why is it "made up?"

Why are you guys utterly unable to answer the ultimate question? Where is the oil? In what amount? You won't respond, because you can't.

 

[westwall]

Sorry jiggs, there is no there there, you are just a kook hollering about made up things things pretending you know things.
Best to stop and just pretend it never happened and post about your favorite color or shapes you used to recognize .

Don't be sorry. Just answer the question, or accept that your platform is baseless.

I'll just keep calling you on your latest round of horseshit: Why is it "made up?"

Why are you guys utterly unable to answer the ultimate question? Where is the oil? In what amount? You won't respond, because you can't.

The oil is wherever it is needed it seems to me. Whenever we need more Saudi Arabia seems magically to be able to ramp up production to whatever is needed. More to the point if peak oil had truly been reached the price per barrel would rapidly be escalating to 200 or more per barrel. Instead it is stuck at around the 80 to 100 level per barrel, and even that is a fiction. 50-60% of the price per barrel is due to speculation on the part of commodities traders, not demand.

‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’

Oil speculation - NYTimes.com

Oil Speculation

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings? - 60 Minutes - CBS News

Fears of Oil Speculation Driving Up Gas Prices, Canceling Out Stimulus | FDL News Desk

So there you have it. Speculators and the oil companies themselves are driving the prices up...not demand. Production is well able to meet the demand levels. In the Gulf of Mexico
production declined over the last few years due to hurricane damage. However, the production rates are increasing and will be around 1.9 million barrels per day, with a further 7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.

But go ahead keep on with the chicken little act. There are allways some who choose to live in a perpetual state of fear.

 

[mdn2000]

Sorry jiggs, there is no there there, you are just a kook hollering about made up things things pretending you know things.
Best to stop and just pretend it never happened and post about your favorite color or shapes you used to recognize .

Don't be sorry. Just answer the question, or accept that your platform is baseless.

I'll just keep calling you on your latest round of horseshit: Why is it "made up?"

Why are you guys utterly unable to answer the ultimate question? Where is the oil? In what amount? You won't respond, because you can't.

The oil is wherever it is needed it seems to me. Whenever we need more Saudi Arabia seems magically to be able to ramp up production to whatever is needed. More to the point if peak oil had truly been reached the price per barrel would rapidly be escalating to 200 or more per barrel. Instead it is stuck at around the 80 to 100 level per barrel, and even that is a fiction. 50-60% of the price per barrel is due to speculation on the part of commodities traders, not demand.

‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’

Oil speculation - NYTimes.com

Oil Speculation

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings? - 60 Minutes - CBS News

Fears of Oil Speculation Driving Up Gas Prices, Canceling Out Stimulus | FDL News Desk

So there you have it. Speculators and the oil companies themselves are driving the prices up...not demand. Production is well able to meet the demand levels. In the Gulf of Mexico
production declined over the last few years due to hurricane damage. However, the production rates are increasing and will be around 1.9 million barrels per day, with a further 7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.

But go ahead keep on with the chicken little act. There are allways some who choose to live in a perpetual state of fear.

Best be careful, Jiggs just put me in my place over in my Oregon thread, Jiggs told me so.

 

[JiggsCasey]

The oil is wherever it is needed it seems to me. Whenever we need more Saudi Arabia seems magically to be able to ramp up production to whatever is needed.

A few too many "seems" are written in that passage. This is a transparent and hollow attempt to answer a challenge you don't have a figure for. It gets worse and worse for you as this goes along.

Saudi does NOT "magically" ramp up production anymore, only suggests it can. You couldn't possibly know Saudi's capability, because no one is allowed to independently verify their reserve totals. All we have to go on are their desperate actions, like calling in Halliburton, resorting to water injections, and pouring millions into offshore infrastructure.

Sometimes circumstantial evidence is far more convincing than direct evidence.

Example -
Direct evidence: You come in and tell me it's raining outside.
Circumstantial evidence: You come in, soaked and drawing down and umbrella, but don't say a word.

Now, which is more convincing that it's actually raining outside?

More to the point if peak oil had truly been reached the price per barrel would rapidly be escalating to 200 or more per barrel.

No it wouldn't. That's an assanine assumption, considering global recession that resulted in the short spike flatlined global demand and sent the price plummeting just as quickly. Either way, the longterm price is rising, and the ramifications are (and will continue to be) economic upheaval.

Instead it is stuck at around the 80 to 100 level per barrel,

This is a little bit like saying the football is spotted somewhere between the 20 yard lines. And it most certainly isn't "stuck" at all... It only crept past $80 a few short weeks ago, and continue to creep upward.

and even that is a fiction. 50-60% of the price per barrel is due to speculation on the part of commodities traders, not demand.

‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’

Oil speculation - NYTimes.com

Oil Speculation

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings? - 60 Minutes - CBS News

Fears of Oil Speculation Driving Up Gas Prices, Canceling Out Stimulus | FDL News Desk

So there you have it. Speculators and the oil companies themselves are driving the prices up...not demand.

Great. And where does it say anything refuting demand's affect? You just threw a bunch of links out there, and just made up a cause/effect assertion. LOL.

The difference here is that I can admit speculation plays a part in it. You, however, REFUSE to admit the undeniable conditions of supply depletion, nor demand growth.

Production is well able to meet the demand levels.

That's quite a statement. Link please.

In the Gulf of Mexico production declined over the last few years due to hurricane damage.

Among other things.

However, the production rates are increasing and will be around 1.9 million barrels per day, with a further 7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.

Yeah, we consume 21 million barrels per day, and 64 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, and growing. We're still a bigger net importer each passing year, and that won't change. Miss the point much?

But, increasing since when? Last week? 5 years ago? 10? Put your statement into some form of context. Don't just throw some figures out there and think you've scored some point. LOL.

But go ahead keep on with the chicken little act. There are allways some who choose to live in a perpetual state of fear.

Where did I indicate I was afraid of this reality? Are you ever able to debate this subject without making up shit? Both in terms of data as well as personal insinuation?

 

[Samson]

Sorry jiggs, there is no there there, you are just a kook hollering about made up things things pretending you know things.
Best to stop and just pretend it never happened and post about your favorite color or shapes you used to recognize .

Don't be sorry. Just answer the question, or accept that your platform is baseless.

I'll just keep calling you on your latest round of horseshit: Why is it "made up?"

Why are you guys utterly unable to answer the ultimate question? Where is the oil? In what amount? You won't respond, because you can't.

So?

I'm supposed to believe YOU know exactly where the oil is, and in what amount.

For the past 50 years attention whores like you have lived in the spotlight you get whenever you begin screeching about "Peak Oil" to a new class of impressionable college freshman.

Even they wonder how much shit you are full of by the end of their Junior Year.

 

[westwall]

The oil is wherever it is needed it seems to me. Whenever we need more Saudi Arabia seems magically to be able to ramp up production to whatever is needed.

A few too many "seems" are written in that passage. This is a transparent and hollow attempt to answer a challenge you don't have a figure for. It gets worse and worse for you as this goes along.

Saudi does NOT "magically" ramp up production anymore, only suggests it can. You couldn't possibly know Saudi's capability, because no one is allowed to independently verify their reserve totals. All we have to go on are their desperate actions, like calling in Halliburton, resorting to water injections, and pouring millions into offshore infrastructure.

Sometimes circumstantial evidence is far more convincing than direct evidence.

Example -
Direct evidence: You come in and tell me it's raining outside.
Circumstantial evidence: You come in, soaked and drawing down and umbrella, but don't say a word.

Now, which is more convincing that it's actually raining outside?

More to the point if peak oil had truly been reached the price per barrel would rapidly be escalating to 200 or more per barrel.

No it wouldn't. That's an assanine assumption, considering global recession that resulted in the short spike flatlined global demand and sent the price plummeting just as quickly. Either way, the longterm price is rising, and the ramifications are (and will continue to be) economic upheaval.



This is a little bit like saying the football is spotted somewhere between the 20 yard lines. And it most certainly isn't "stuck" at all... It only crept past $80 a few short weeks ago, and continue to creep upward.



Great. And where does it say anything refuting demand's affect? You just threw a bunch of links out there, and just made up a cause/effect assertion. LOL.

The difference here is that I can admit speculation plays a part in it. You, however, REFUSE to admit the undeniable conditions of supply depletion, nor demand growth.



That's quite a statement. Link please.



Among other things.

However, the production rates are increasing and will be around 1.9 million barrels per day, with a further 7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.

Yeah, we consume 21 million barrels per day, and 64 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, and growing. We're still a bigger net importer each passing year, and that won't change. Miss the point much?

But, increasing since when? Last week? 5 years ago? 10? Put your statement into some form of context. Don't just throw some figures out there and think you've scored some point. LOL.

But go ahead keep on with the chicken little act. There are allways some who choose to live in a perpetual state of fear.

Where did I indicate I was afraid of this reality? Are you ever able to debate this subject without making up shit? Both in terms of data as well as personal insinuation?

Well here is just one for you, I am going to pull a you on you, go find the link they are all over the place, all you have to do is look.


Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
May 16, 2008
Rigzone


Contrary to earlier reports, Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production by 300,000 barrels per day in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and will pump 9.45 million bpd in June, Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said on Friday.

"Every month, we receive (orders) from our customers worldwide. On May 10 we increased our response to our customers by 300,000 barrels because they asked for it," Nuaimi told reporters during a visit by U.S. President George W. Bush to Saudi Arabia.

He said additional demand came from about 50 customers, mostly U.S. clients, "and we responded to it on May 10."

"Our production for June will be 9.45 million barrels per day," he added.


Your assertions are based on nothing but a theory dreamed up decades ago by a man who was a long time Shell employee and who's company continues to rake in tons of money from the various oil companies they work for.

 

[mdn2000]

Oils price is going up, Obama's stash is being given to Renewable energy, Renewable energy is a PIG for energy gobbling up tens of billions of dollars worth oil to extract and process the raw materials into the components for Green energy. Green energy is booming with Obama's stash, everything else is down world wide.

Wind turbines and Solar panels, eating massive amounts of energy and resources, the most expensive for a reason.

 

[Mr.Fitnah]

Sorry jiggs, there is no there there, you are just a kook hollering about made up things things pretending you know things.
Best to stop and just pretend it never happened and post about your favorite color or shapes you used to recognize .

Don't be sorry. Just answer the question, or accept that your platform is baseless.

I'll just keep calling you on your latest round of horseshit: Why is it "made up?"

Why are you guys utterly unable to answer the ultimate question? Where is the oil? In what amount? You won't respond, because you can't.

The question is, what shapes did you used to recognize ?

 

[mdn2000]

Today I travel from Madrid to Los Angeles, Thursday from Los Angeles to Rio De Janeiro, while buying my ticket I see a Carbon Offset company shaking people down for money on the Continental airlines website.

If I had the time I would make a thread, I mentioned the company to my Spanish co-workers and they state they have a carbon offset tax.

 

[Big Fitz]

And King Chicken Little the Last Rants on...

OIL IS GONE! OIL IS GONE! THERE IS NO MORE! OIL IS GONE!

 

[JiggsCasey]

The question is, what shapes did you used to recognize ?

In other words, you can't answer the question I put to you, and punted. LOL.... It's ok, Fitnerd... Far better posters than you are trying here, and they can't find it either.

So?

I'm supposed to believe YOU know exactly where the oil is, and in what amount.

No, no one does. Because it doesn't exist. Are you starting to get it now?

I'm challenging your team to link to new oil going forward that will sustain our global appetite of 86 million barrels per day, and growing. I know you won't provide it, because it's not out there to be found. Period.

For the past 50 years attention whores like you have lived in the spotlight you get whenever you begin screeching about "Peak Oil" to a new class of impressionable college freshman.

Vague, empty language, entirely unquantifiable hope-speak, and certainly not relevant. God, do you ever suck at this.

Among all the people I'm taking on here, you are by far the most useless. You haven't made a single point in this subforum. At least the others have.

I'm gonna get back to dealing with people who at least wanna discuss the figures now. Run along, smarmy.

Well here is just one for you, I am going to pull a you on you, go find the link they are all over the place, all you have to do is look.

Oh, I found your link. .... And you clearly cherry picked, because most of the blog is about obvious overall Saudi production decline. It's easy to point to a brief one-month increase of a piddly amount, assert its proof of perpetual glut, and simultaneously ignore all the other evidence of longterm Saudi decline. See below, o' great hope-based pundit:

Saudi Hikes Output by 300,000 bpd in May
May 16, 2008
Rigzone

Contrary to earlier reports, Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production by 300,000 barrels per day in response to orders from customers, mostly from the United States, and will pump 9.45 million bpd in June, Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said on Friday.

"Every month, we receive (orders) from our customers worldwide. On May 10 we increased our response to our customers by 300,000 barrels because they asked for it," Nuaimi told reporters during a visit by U.S. President George W. Bush to Saudi Arabia.

He said additional demand came from about 50 customers, mostly U.S. clients, "and we responded to it on May 10."

"Our production for June will be 9.45 million barrels per day," he added.

Wow... 300K? One month? That should save us.

Unfortunately, here's what else your link - from saudioilproduction.blogspot - offered... oops:

One dramatic part of the data concerns a site called Ghawar, which has been the kingdom's workhorse field for decades. It shows the field producing 5.4 million barrels a day next year, but the volume then falling off rapidly, to 4.475 million daily barrels in 2013. "That's why Khurais is so important—to make up for that decrease," said the oil industry executive who released the data.


Simple arithmetic tells us that additions from Shaybah after 2013 will not offset Ghawar declines for more than one year. Business Week's source indicates that 10.4 million b/d is Saudi Arabia's maximum sustainable production level between 2009-2013. This number confirms what I wrote in The Saudis Are Blowing Smoke Again (ASPO-USA, March 12, 2008).
​

Your assertions are based on nothing but a theory dreamed up decades ago.

Uh huh. You keep telling yourself that. Meanwhile, for all your bluster, and despite the fact that you've been taunted several times now to do so, you still can't quantify or locate where the new capacity is going to come from, going forward. That's because no one knows.

Pointing to 2 or 3 kiddie pools "refilling", and one vague estimate of Saudi reserves increasing a tiny bit ONE month unfortunately is doing ZERO for your overall argument of "everything is fine." Interestingly, you failed to mention that Saudi had LOST 1 million b/pd in production between 2005 and 2007.

Saudi oil production plans | Stock Market News & Stocks to Watch from StraightStocks

Do better.

 

[Mr.Fitnah]

 

[editec]

WE (meanign most of us who are NOT experts in the field) really have NO IDEA how much oil is left.

WE are stuck with the EXPERTS OPIONS and since they disagree, those of us who are honest withourselves, ought to acknowledge that we don't know, but we are depending on the experts that we think know what's going on.

The price of gal went up 10 cents in the last two days.

That kind of price fluxuation has nothing whatever to do with the issue of peak oil.

 

[JiggsCasey]

WE (meanign most of us who are NOT experts in the field) really have NO IDEA how much oil is left.

WE are stuck with the EXPERTS OPIONS and since they disagree, those of us who are honest withourselves, ought to acknowledge that we don't know, but we are depending on the experts that we think know what's going on.

What experts disagree? On what? I'll wager any "expert" who is denying global oil depletion is no "expert" at all. The debate about peak among the experts is long over.

If it wasn't, then the IEA, the U.S. Dept of Energy, and the Joint Chiefs wouldn't be telling the world peak is here, nor that decline is expected no later than 2015.

The price of gal went up 10 cents in the last two days.

That kind of price fluxuation has nothing whatever to do with the issue of peak oil.

It has everything to do with it. Price volatility is at the core of the "bumpy plateau" aspect of peak.

The Oil Drum | Whither The Bumpy Plateau?

Cliff notes:

1. Price shock (as the capacity limit is breached)
2. Economic recession cutting demand
3. Price collapse (the market overreacts to small imbalances between surplus and shortage)
4. Economic recovery [followed by increased demand]
5. Price shock (as the falling capacity limits are again breached)

What matters is the wider trend. It's like variance in poker. Over 500 hands, there will be wild dips and spikes, and no real pattern ascertained. But, over 50,000 hands, what is the trend? Up or down?

As it pertains to oil, that trend is undeniably "up." And up considerably the past 6 years since global production began to flatline in 2004.