Polling Perils

[LoneLaugher]

Dick Morrison?

You realize there are a lot of pollsters out there and you stated that 'most' of them were predicting a Romney win. I distinctly remember the polls in general predicting an Obama win. What Dick Morrison predicted is irrelevant.

Its Dick Morris.
Anyway, no president had ever been re-elected with economic numbers as bad as Obama's.

What does that have to do with your thread? And....his numbers were better than the numbers he started with. You are really making a good showing here, Ribeye.......outstanding stuff.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I just dont believe that 55% of anyone in purple states have an IQ of 35 or under (the Hillary symposizers)

The Hillary what? You mentioned IQ........

 

[Toro]

Most people predicted a Romney win. They did not count on the huge turnout of black and illegal voters in key states.

If by "most people," you mean "Fox News" or "conservative bloggers," you would be correct. But not everyone else. It was the biggest example of mass confirmation bias in American political history.

All one had to do was to look at the polls and take them at face value to know that Obama was going to win since Obama was leading in most of the polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election Romney vs. Obama

Not only that, but Obama was leading in most of the swing states going into the election.

These were the swing states.

Swing state - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

And if you tracked the polls in the swing states prior to the election, you would have seen Obama was leading in most of them.

All you had to do was believe the polls and you would have seen that Obama was going to win. But conservatives couldn't accept that, and spun fantasies to convince themselves otherwise, as they still do to this day.

 

[JoeB131]

Results from the British election show one clear loser: POllsters. Every pollster virtually had the parties in a dead heat. But in the end it was a slaughter for the Torys. Even Nate Silver, favorite of the libs here, was way off, offering an explanation
What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model FiveThirtyEight

But the truth, which no oe has brought out, is that people tend to lie to pollsters because to admit being for the conservatives is to be perceived as "mean." The same thing probably operates here: people claim to like Hillary or whatever Dem but then vote GOP. This will play out on the coming election for sure.

Guy, 60% of Brits voted against the Tories. That they couldn't agree on an oppossition doesn't mean anyone thinks Cameron has done a good job.

The scary thing is that Scotland has pretty much decided they've given up on the United Kingdom. So Conservatives will have accomplished something- the End of the Country.

 

[LoneLaugher]

It's very easy to understand. Rabbi......one of this forums most astute political observers....believes that the 2012 election was stolen from Mitt Romney by a flood of illegal votes. It makes perfect sense. After all....Dick Morris called it for Romney. He's never wrong about anything.

 

[Toro]

Here's more on the swing states.

These are the swing states and the candidate leading in the polls on election day

Colorado - Obama
Florida - Romney
Iowa - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
North Carolina - Romney
Ohio - Obama
Pennsylvania - Obama
Virgina - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama

You can see all the polls here.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Wisconsin Romney vs. Obama

The only state that Obama won in which he wasn't leading going into the election was Florida.

 

[BlackSand]

How do you square that with the incredible accuracy the polls have for predicting the elections here? They are very accurate right before the election occurs.

Perhaps it is because they ask party affiliation in the exit polls ... And not who the person actually voted for.
I know my grandparents were registered Democrats ... And didn't vote for Democrats half the time.

.

 

[JoeB131]

Most people predicted a Romney win. They did not count on the huge turnout of black and illegal voters in key states.

No, they really didn't.

In fact, only two polls predicted that the Weird Mormon Robot would win. - Gallup and Ratmuffin. Gallup already had a bias against Obama because he sued them for defrauding the government on contracts and Ratmuffin is of course, Ratmuffin. He lives in his own reality. Four other polls had Obama leading and two had a tie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election Romney vs. Obama

 

[Toro]

Guy, 60% of Brits voted against the Tories. That they couldn't agree on an oppossition doesn't mean anyone thinks Cameron has done a good job.

In virtually every election in the UK over the past 100 years, the winning party did not get at least 50% of the vote. In fact, most elections have seen the winning party get 38%-44% of the vote. Same in Canada. It's how a Parliamentary democracy works.

 

[Toro]

How do you square that with the incredible accuracy the polls have for predicting the elections here? They are very accurate right before the election occurs.

Perhaps it is because they ask party affiliation in the exit polls ... And not who the person actually voted for.
I know my grandparents were registered Democrats ... And didn't vote for Democrats half the time.

.

They ask for party affiliation, ideology and the candidate they voted for, amongst other things.

 

[JoeB131]

In virtually every election in the UK over the past 100 years, the winning party did not get at least 50% of the vote. In fact, most elections have seen the winning party get 38%-44% of the vote. Same in Canada. It's how a Parliamentary democracy works.

Yes, it's an awful system. Good thing we don't do that here.

 

[BlackSand]

They ask for party affiliation, ideology and the candidate they voted for, amongst other things.

Thanks ... I didn't know because they don't do the exit polls around here ... Or at least not in our Conservative district.
I have never seen an exit poller ... But I see everyone else that shows up to vote (or at least the folks that show up while I am there).

.

 

[LoneLaugher]

They ask for party affiliation, ideology and the candidate they voted for, amongst other things.

Thanks ... I didn't know because they don't do the exit polls around here ... Or at least not in our Conservative district.
I have never seen an exit poller ... But I see everyone else that shows up to vote (or at least the folks that show up while I am there).

.

What? You see everyone who shows up to vote while you are there? That's really amazing. Thanks for the info.

 

[BlackSand]

What? You see everyone who shows up to vote while you are there? That's really amazing. Thanks for the info.

Yeah ... And there is usually a line ... Which indicates there are a lot more people voting than in the exit polls somewhere else.
And ... Since our precinct/district is heavily weighted Conservative ... Then a poll somewhere else certainly wouldn't include that influence.

Now ... You have the information ... Let's see what you can do with it.
Big problem with Democrats ... Always thinking about stupid shit ... Never trying to make sense of anything.

You get points for being a stupid assed clown though ... Troll on peanut.

.

 

[LoneLaugher]

What? You see everyone who shows up to vote while you are there? That's really amazing. Thanks for the info.

Yeah ... And there is usually a line ... Which indicates there are a lot more people voting than in the exit polls somewhere else.
And ... Since our precinct/district is heavily weighted Conservative ... Then a poll somewhere else certainly wouldn't include that influence.

Now ... You have the information ... Let's see what you can do with it.
Big problem with Democrats ... Always thinking about stupid shit ... Never trying to make sense of anything.

You get points for being a stupid assed clown though ... Troll on peanut.

.

You think I'm a democrat?

You have really hit on something here. Exit polls......being something other than an accurate tabulation of actual votes....are often unreliable. It's a brilliant theory. You should be on TV or something.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Results from the British election show one clear loser: POllsters. Every pollster virtually had the parties in a dead heat. But in the end it was a slaughter for the Torys. Even Nate Silver, favorite of the libs here, was way off, offering an explanation
What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model FiveThirtyEight

But the truth, which no oe has brought out, is that people tend to lie to pollsters because to admit being for the conservatives is to be perceived as "mean." The same thing probably operates here: people claim to like Hillary or whatever Dem but then vote GOP. This will play out on the coming election for sure.

my final conklusion of what happened in 2008 and 2012 are both the same. Obama won because "People Are Stupid". (the infamous catch phrase). Only the dumbest Americans vote to collapse the economy, allow terrorists/illegals to cross the border and dont see a problem with our enemies building nuclear weapons. {And will the loony lefties stop pointing out my speelling errors! I do on poropse!}

 

[LoneLaugher]

Results from the British election show one clear loser: POllsters. Every pollster virtually had the parties in a dead heat. But in the end it was a slaughter for the Torys. Even Nate Silver, favorite of the libs here, was way off, offering an explanation
What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model FiveThirtyEight

But the truth, which no oe has brought out, is that people tend to lie to pollsters because to admit being for the conservatives is to be perceived as "mean." The same thing probably operates here: people claim to like Hillary or whatever Dem but then vote GOP. This will play out on the coming election for sure.

my final conklusion of what happened in 2008 and 2012 are both the same. Obama won because "People Are Stupid". (the infamous catch phrase). Only the dumbest Americans vote to collapse the economy, allow terrorists/illegals to cross the border and dont see a problem with our enemies building nuclear weapons. {And will the loony lefties stop pointing out my speelling errors! I do on poropse!}

No you don't.

 

[BlackSand]

What? You see everyone who shows up to vote while you are there? That's really amazing. Thanks for the info.

Yeah ... And there is usually a line ... Which indicates there are a lot more people voting than in the exit polls somewhere else.
And ... Since our precinct/district is heavily weighted Conservative ... Then a poll somewhere else certainly wouldn't include that influence.

Now ... You have the information ... Let's see what you can do with it.
Big problem with Democrats ... Always thinking about stupid shit ... Never trying to make sense of anything.

You get points for being a stupid assed clown though ... Troll on peanut.

.

You think I'm a democrat?

You have really hit on something here. Exit polls......being something other than an accurate tabulation of actual votes....are often unreliable. It's a brilliant theory. You should be on TV or something.

No ... I don't think you are anything but a stupid assed clown who trolls a lot ... That is what I gave you points for.

I did comment on how I thought your actions at least mimic the difficulties Democrats have ... If you want to assume that refers to me thinking you are a Democrat ... That is your assumption, not mine.

.

 

[Wildman]

They are very accurate right before the election occurs.

are you talking hours, minutes or seconds ?

 

[Wildman]

...black and illegal voters...

aren't they one and the same ? ...