The € EURO thread

[JimBowie1958]

yup, you're right.

so this is now the game, the EU will lay out half the productivity of said nation to......do what again?

To kick that can down the road another block maybe?

 

[KissMy]

In return for subsidized rates, Spain will cede sovereignty over its financial system, but also lose tax sovereignty, contrary to what the Government said yesterday.[/url]

That was the key phrase in your post. One by one each country who gets into trouble will lose their sovereignty.

This is what I was saying in this post that will have to happen to save the Euro. They will have to turn into the "United States of Europe" with a united government that will control each nation state.

If they can all agree to do this, it will save the Euro & the global economy. If they fail - there is always GOLD!!!

There is no saving the Euro short of those countries surrendering their sovereignty to a United Euro government that has real teeth.

That wont work either.

Just because a single state issues fiat currency based on runaway debt instead of multiple nations, nothing is different, much less improved.

Investors have no confidence in the current financial markets because of the bad debt, exessive debt and the high frequency trading algos dominating human trading.

Lets see what happens after our markets impose penalties on HFT quote stuffing. I get the feeling that the HFTs are the only thing keeping the markets up.

A united euro government will help a lot. It will prevent one country from screwing all the others & then bailing out of the euro. The Euro Nation would directly control each states budget. United defense, rail & interstate highway system. Without strict controls, one country's politician will always sweep shit under the rug so it will explode later on the next elected official & screw all the other states just like Greece did. Right now Greece is to big to fail. But Italy is to big to bail-out. That shit will take everybody down.

 

[Trajan]

and here we are, I have been saying for over a year, yea yea so have a lot of other folks I know....(everyone seems to see it but the egotistical douche bags running the show it would turn), that spain truly was the canary, Italy is next and then thats all she wrote.

on a general note- the folks making money in this market now, are making it by virtue of computer trading...... the last human 'values' move was FB which was a balls up and a venal, perfectly suitable wall st. huckster vehicle, it was smoke and mirrors, a grab for a payday before it slid into mediocrity along side my space.

 

[Euroconservativ]

They will not expel Greece for two reasons. First, it's too expensive for european banks. Second, it could set an example for other Eurozone members. Even if Syriza wins, they will keep Greece inside.

I believe that Greece could do well outside the Euro. Because their first industry is tourism; they have not much manufacturing. They would struggle for some months or a year, they would need some foreign help to import essential items... but eventually a cheaper currency would save them.

 

[Trajan]

In return for subsidized rates, Spain will cede sovereignty over its financial system, but also lose tax sovereignty, contrary to what the Government said yesterday.[/url]

That was the key phrase in your post. One by one each country who gets into trouble will lose their sovereignty.

This is what I was saying in this post that will have to happen to save the Euro. They will have to turn into the "United States of Europe" with a united government that will control each nation state.

If they can all agree to do this, it will save the Euro & the global economy. If they fail - there is always GOLD!!!

That wont work either.

Just because a single state issues fiat currency based on runaway debt instead of multiple nations, nothing is different, much less improved.

Investors have no confidence in the current financial markets because of the bad debt, exessive debt and the high frequency trading algos dominating human trading.

Lets see what happens after our markets impose penalties on HFT quote stuffing. I get the feeling that the HFTs are the only thing keeping the markets up.

A united euro government will help a lot. It will prevent one country from screwing all the others & then bailing out of the euro. The Euro Nation would directly control each states budget. United defense, rail & interstate highway system. Without strict controls, one country's politician will always sweep shit under the rug so it will explode later on the next elected official & screw all the other states just like Greece did. Right now Greece is to big to fail. But Italy is to big to bail-out. That shit will take everybody down.

KM, I hear you and I agree. let me digress for a minute though before I say what I want say on your post.


I have been reading history for a hobby since I was 12, military, political etc etc …when I was in college, ( pretty good one too but I flunked out or that is flunked myself out) , I wanted to be a historian, I had several very good proff’s and it was no coincidence that the best of them, the one who seemed to have a grasp on historical contexts and the ability to translate that with the current events and make sense of it , told me that to understand where events are leading, one must be able to stand out said oneself. He told me that he trys to sit back clear his head and see it written on paper, as if he were reading today’s events and their follow on issues/results 50 years later in a book, the words and conclusions conjured in his mind almost sub consciously working with all hes read and seen from the past.

And too, remembering and this is a biggey- we occupy not a very large tract of time relatively. It appears to me that many people cannot think of time in the relative as it relates to history and the effect of humanity responding the same old way to basically the same old stimuli ….they live in the here and now always, either they are afraid to get outside themselves or maybe, they just cannot.


But whats at work is not going to wait on them, thinking a major revolution, upheaval resulting in a major shift or reorder of how thinks work today cannot happen on their watch is an arrogance that, yes, has historical precedents…up the wazoo, which means that's probably whats going to happen, as Burke said…don’t learn it? Re-live it.

Here is what I see; either Europe in the next 2-3 years replicates something as concentrated, wise , binding and far reaching as the Peace of Westphalia, or, they are done.

My definition of done is; they sink into what a modern society would sink [to] equivalently with the step down of the fairest provinces of the Roman Empire as they sank to what we called the Dark Ages ( they weren’t as dark as the word implys but they were pretty shitty) .

Further- Italians are not germans, Greeks are not irish nor shall the twain meet. The brits are another thing altogether, (how smart or lucky were they to stay out of the Euro?) In any event, the peace of Westphalia drove stakes into the ground to make the political social environment of Europe for, heck 200 years until the French rev……sovereignty began to change , but the feudal DNA was still there, and, it is now reappearing.

Will the Spaniards, Irish, Portuguese and Italians ( and Germans inversely by becoming the back stop) sit still for another give away of their rights and sovereignty to the ‘greater cause’..I have doubts, not this time.

 

[KissMy]

They will not expel Greece for two reasons. First, it's too expensive for European banks. Second, it could set an example for other Eur ozone members. Even if Syria wins, they will keep Greece inside.

I believe that Greece could do well outside the Euro. Because their first industry is tourism; they have not much manufacturing. They would struggle for some months or a year, they would need some foreign help to import essential items... but eventually a cheaper currency would save them.

A cheaper currency will not save them. They rely on imports & the inflation will crush them. It will also set off a chain of events that will cause a huge depression for both Europe & Greece. The depression will be more sever than any able bodied worker today has ever seen. No leader is stupid enough to let that happen & risk being hung in the town square. Greece will stay with the Euro. Greece & Spain have ceded their sovereignty to the ECB. Eventually all of the Euro member states will be controlled by one European government.

If this fails there will be nowhere to hide.

 

[KissMy]

Will the Spaniards, Irish, Portuguese and Italians ( and Germans inversely by becoming the back stop) sit still for another give away of their rights and sovereignty to the ‘greater cause’..I have doubts, not this time.

Their choice is give away sovereignty or face economic collapse & possible war. In this country they took away our civil rights with the NDAA & it was only a one day news event. Today people live for today & will never listen to people like Jefferson who warned: "He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security."

Europe is likely further removed from the lessons of the past than we are. The majority will go with what ever keeps their money flowing, food on the table, buying iPhones, etc. They will not risk turning into Afganistan over something as trivial as something the majority does not understand like sovereignty. As bad as things are, they are not even close to being as bad as they will get within days of a Euro collapse.

 

[Trajan]

Will the Spaniards, Irish, Portuguese and Italians ( and Germans inversely by becoming the back stop) sit still for another give away of their rights and sovereignty to the ‘greater cause’..I have doubts, not this time.

Their choice is give away sovereignty or face economic collapse & possible war. In this country they took away our civil rights with the NDAA & it was only a one day news event. Today people live for today & will never listen to people like Jefferson who warned: "He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security."

Europe is likely further removed from the lessons of the past than we are. The majority will go with what ever keeps their money flowing, food on the table, buying iPhones, etc. They will not risk turning into Afganistan over something as trivial as something the majority does not understand like sovereignty. As bad as things are, they are not even close to being as bad as they will get within days of a Euro collapse.

heres the rub though, it will go that way, anyway.

Now, will it be after they surrender even more to the great gods in Brussels? There will be several national failures as they stumble along, the question is only how long.

Wiemar lasted how long? 14 years? and only 5 until the top blew off into hyper inflation and each step of the way as the economy sunk lower and they swapped out 8 heads of state, until change came, in spades.

 

[KissMy]

Will the Spaniards, Irish, Portuguese and Italians ( and Germans inversely by becoming the back stop) sit still for another give away of their rights and sovereignty to the ‘greater cause’..I have doubts, not this time.

Their choice is give away sovereignty or face economic collapse & possible war. In this country they took away our civil rights with the NDAA & it was only a one day news event. Today people live for today & will never listen to people like Jefferson who warned: "He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security."

Europe is likely further removed from the lessons of the past than we are. The majority will go with what ever keeps their money flowing, food on the table, buying iPhones, etc. They will not risk turning into Afganistan over something as trivial as something the majority does not understand like sovereignty. As bad as things are, they are not even close to being as bad as they will get within days of a Euro collapse.

heres the rub though, it will go that way, anyway.

Now, will it be after they surrender even more to the great gods in Brussels? There will be several national failures as they stumble along, the question is only how long.

Wiemar lasted how long? 14 years? and only 5 until the top blew off into hyper inflation and each step of the way as the economy sunk lower and they swapped out 8 heads of state, until change came, in spades.

It will take time for sure. Basically as each state takes bailout money in exchange for their sovereignty they will be controlled by an unelected banker dictator from the ECB. They will not have the ability to borrow, spend or tax any more. That power will be in the hands of the ECB. This should prevent or slow the top from blowing off into hyper inflation. If not at least they have built some more road to continue kicking the can down for a while.

 

[Trajan]

time....time......

 

[KissMy]

This Time, Europe Really Is on the Brink by Niall Ferguson and Nouriel Roubini

The European Union was created to avoid repeating the disasters of the 1930s, but Germany, of all countries, has failed to learn from history. As the euro crisis escalates, Berlin should remember how the banking crisis of 1931 contributed to the breakdown of democracy across Europe. Action is urgently needed to stop history from repeating itself.

Is it one minute to midnight in Europe?

The failure of German public opinion to grasp the dire state of affairs in Europe today is inviting a repeat of precisely the crisis of the mid 20th century that European integration was designed to avoid.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Greek Bank Withdrawals Hit $1 BILLION PER DAY
Greek banks see outflows pickup as election nears - bankers | World | Reuters


Greek Government down to $2 BILLION
Greece has money to pay bills until July 20: report - RT News


Greece: Limited Capital Controls Implemented
Report from Greece: Limited Capital Controls Implemented | Shenandoahcapital-controls-implemented/

 

[Trajan]

This Time, Europe Really Is on the Brink by Niall Ferguson and Nouriel Roubini

The European Union was created to avoid repeating the disasters of the 1930s, but Germany, of all countries, has failed to learn from history. As the euro crisis escalates, Berlin should remember how the banking crisis of 1931 contributed to the breakdown of democracy across Europe. Action is urgently needed to stop history from repeating itself.

Is it one minute to midnight in Europe?

The failure of German public opinion to grasp the dire state of affairs in Europe today is inviting a repeat of precisely the crisis of the mid 20th century that European integration was designed to avoid.

was I channeling Niall's? damn I am good.... j/k....

 

[Trajan]

Greek Bank Withdrawals Hit $1 BILLION PER DAY
Greek banks see outflows pickup as election nears - bankers | World | Reuters


Greek Government down to $2 BILLION
Greece has money to pay bills until July 20: report - RT News


Greece: Limited Capital Controls Implemented
Report from Greece: Limited Capital Controls Implemented | Shenandoahcapital-controls-implemented/

yea I just saw this. any foreign co's doing biz in Greece have instructed their accounting dept.s to sweep all funds on a monthly basis out of the county as well, if they have the agility to do it daily I bet they would.


a bon mot.... As soon as 5% of a group/herd/pod/gaggle behaves in a certain way, the majority will imitate this behavior too.humans are......animals in crowds too, Greece is pretty much there......then...

 

[Trajan]

This Time, Europe Really Is on the Brink by Niall Ferguson and Nouriel Roubini

The European Union was created to avoid repeating the disasters of the 1930s, but Germany, of all countries, has failed to learn from history. As the euro crisis escalates, Berlin should remember how the banking crisis of 1931 contributed to the breakdown of democracy across Europe. Action is urgently needed to stop history from repeating itself.

Is it one minute to midnight in Europe?

The failure of German public opinion to grasp the dire state of affairs in Europe today is inviting a repeat of precisely the crisis of the mid 20th century that European integration was designed to avoid.

from the link-


# Fiscal austerity policies should not be excessively front-loaded while structural reforms that accelerate productivity growth should be sped up.


# Economic growth needs to be jump-started in the euro zone. Without growth, the social and political backlash against austerity will be overwhelming. Repaying debt cannot be sustainable without growth.

and as I have said, were is the growth plan? ex; Drahgi tried defanging the Italian unions and got smacked down.

gov. rules on/over native market competition and mechanisms that shackle such, needs to be smashed, ex; in Greece you cannot open a pharmacy within 1000 feet of another, the licensing process for businesses make the NYC taxi/medallion process seem like a cake walk, truckers 'will' their registrations ( of the restricted number allowed) to family members or sell them for retirement money, work hours, vacation allowances etc etc etc etc ...


of course there is the biggest, most sweeping reset button of them all......war. but none of them have an army or air force that could do shit to one another


the money shot-

Giving up some sovereignty is inevitable. However, becoming subject to a "neo-colonial" submission of one's fiscal policy to Germany -- as a senior periphery leader put it to us at a recent meeting of the Nicolas Berggruen Institute (NBI) in Rome -- is not acceptable.

 

[KissMy]

If the ECB buys up all the bad debt for zero interest they can keep the charade going for quite a while.

 

[Trajan]

If the ECB buys up all the bad debt for zero interest they can keep the charade going for quite a while.

*shrugs*

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GrxHDyXyj8&feature=player_embedded]Spain: the beginning of the end - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Trajan]

example, 2 year sago-

Banco Santander's reported Tier 1 ratio was 10% as of Dec. 31, 2009 and under the adverse scenario rose to 10.2%. Even in the adverse scenario and adding a shock to the sovereign debt markets, Tier 1 stays at 10%. Much of its ability to keep that Tier 1 high is down to the bank's ability to keep earning more than it loses. Two years after the adverse scenario, two-year cumulative pre-impairment income is projected at €45.74 billion, against losses of some €28 million.

Tier one for BBVA, meanwhile, was 9.4% at end 2009, which edges up to 9.6% under the adverse scenario. Two years after the adverse scenario, BBVA would have pre-impairment income of €21.77 billion, against losses of around €12 billion. The worst scenario, adding sovereign risk, brings that Tier 1 down to 9.3%.

Five Spanish savings banks fail stress test - MarketWatch

tomorrow they both will in all likelihood be downgraded.

 

[percysunshine]

With all this stuff going on, I can see how WWII started. Thank goodness for the internet and governments who cant afford armies.

 

[Trajan]

With all this stuff going on, I can see how WWII started. Thank goodness for the internet and governments who cant afford armies.

guess what? IF they had kept and could afford armies this would not be happening....