The € EURO thread

[Trajan]

The market is absolutely fucking untradeable right now.

Yesterday, everything goes down at 2pm because some obscure Greek politician says Greece could leave the euro. Today, everything goes up at 2pm because the market gets a whiff that a Euro FDIC might be in the offing.

This is by far the hardest market I have ever been involved in, harder than the tech and housing bubble collapses. Then, there was an economic narrative behind both. Today, the market moves on random musings from European politicians, no matter how fanciful or farfetched. I'm thinking about packing it in until the Europeans get their shit together, or when the central banks have some new, massive QE, which is the only time the market seems to move in one direction in a non-schizophrenic manner.

whats interesting and worrying is, even the big boys, the ones who can make, break and move markets based on their own associated/collaborative heft, don't know where this is going hence which way to jump.

I am a concepts gut toroI see things in a conceptual light as the rubber meets the road.

....We truly are in uncharted waters in one sense, think of a cluster of Economic 'Weimer Reps.' scatted thru out Europe...Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Greece, it wasn't 'reparations' that got them here, it was a determined social policy that in the end, and I mean at the bottom of it all, at the very very end after all of the arguments, calculations, debate of/on/over indicators/statistics are over- the 'system' has been set up to award/reward indolence ......


human beings who build and create are NOT in the majority, the ones who don't are, they elect others alike to them, the job of those elected is to separate and impart the goods services produced by the builders to the less able and fortunate. When the balance is destroyed, this is where we wind up.

Don't worry though bro, you think this is a mess? Wait, we are next and it won't take long, 5 years, max and ti will be, massive.


back to the small ball day to day- the EU mess will cost us at least .5% of gdp and when we don't have any we can afford to spare either AND China has finally hit the wall too. a) their gov is in serious crises, and right now, at the worst possible time. I have not been creating any real and serious threads becasue I don't think any body here gives a shit, b) the vapor that was this huge run up to 9-10% gdp over the last 20 years , will now be outted for what it was and is, a third vapor with little lasting power. China wil cost another .5%....

 

[KissMy]

There is no saving the Euro short of those countries surrendering their sovereignty to a United Euro government that has real teeth. In the mean-time keep on expecting more band-aids to kick the can just a down the road until the very end.

This will also have to happen with any "Too Big to Fail Bank." They are ultimately going to have to give up their rights if we have to backstop their losses. If the government wants more student or home loans to people who the free market deems to risky then the government should lend to them directly. Then we can hold policy makers feet to the fire on bubbles & inflation.

 

[JimBowie1958]

There is no saving the Euro short of those countries surrendering their sovereignty to a United Euro government that has real teeth.

That wont work either.

Just because a single state issues fiat currency based on runaway debt instead of multiple nations, nothing is different, much less improved.

Investors have no confidence in the current financial markets because of the bad debt, exessive debt and the high frequency trading algos dominating human trading.

Lets see what happens after our markets impose penalties on HFT quote stuffing. I get the feeling that the HFTs are the only thing keeping the markets up.

 

[Trajan]

annnnd they're off....





* Updated May 25, 2012, 8:22 p.m. ET

Spain Pours Billions Into Bank
Revived Fears of Greece Contagion Prompt Government Injection; S&P Downgrades 5 Institutions

MADRID—Spain will pump €19 billion ($24 billion) into troubled lender Bankia SA, BKIA.MC -7.43% the bank said Friday, effectively nationalizing the country's third-largest bank in a dramatic effort to assuage concerns about the stability of its financial sector.

Worries about Spain's banks, which are saddled with billions in toxic real-estate loans, have heightened in recent weeks as Greece's political crisis has intensified and investors contemplate the knock-on effects of a potential Greek exit from the euro.

more at

Spain to Inject $24 Billion Into Bankia, Troubled Lender Says; S&P Downgrades Five Spanish Banks - WSJ.com




to put a little perspective on this, we had a gdp last year of approx. $15 Trillion, Spain, $1.4....so, 24 bn is what, like 400 bn ? they are not a reserve currency like we are etc., the spanish 10 year is over 6%, so, they can do this once.....this better be it.

 

[KissMy]

There is no saving the Euro short of those countries surrendering their sovereignty to a United Euro government that has real teeth.

That wont work either.

Just because a single state issues fiat currency based on runaway debt instead of multiple nations, nothing is different, much less improved.

Investors have no confidence in the current financial markets because of the bad debt, exessive debt and the high frequency trading algos dominating human trading.

Lets see what happens after our markets impose penalties on HFT quote stuffing. I get the feeling that the HFTs are the only thing keeping the markets up.

A united euro government will help a lot. It will prevent one country from screwing all the others & then bailing out of the euro. The Euro Nation would directly control each states budget. United defense, rail & interstate highway system. Without strict controls, one country's politician will always sweep shit under the rug so it will explode later on the next guy & screw all the other states just like Greece did. Right now Greece is to big to fail. But Italy is to big to bail-out. That shit will take everybody down.

 

[Artevelde]

There is no saving the Euro short of those countries surrendering their sovereignty to a United Euro government that has real teeth.

That wont work either.

Just because a single state issues fiat currency based on runaway debt instead of multiple nations, nothing is different, much less improved.

Investors have no confidence in the current financial markets because of the bad debt, exessive debt and the high frequency trading algos dominating human trading.

Lets see what happens after our markets impose penalties on HFT quote stuffing. I get the feeling that the HFTs are the only thing keeping the markets up.

A united euro government will help a lot. It will prevent one country from screwing all the others & then bailing out of the euro. The Euro Nation would directly control each states budget. United defense, rail & interstate highway system. Without strict controls, one country's politician will always sweep shit under the rug so it will explode later on the next guy & screw all the other states just like Greece did. Right now Greece is to big to fail. But Italy is to big to bail-out. That shit will take everybody down.

A united Euro government is unworkable. You can't wish away more than a thousand years of history.

 

[KissMy]

That wont work either.

Just because a single state issues fiat currency based on runaway debt instead of multiple nations, nothing is different, much less improved.

Investors have no confidence in the current financial markets because of the bad debt, exessive debt and the high frequency trading algos dominating human trading.

Lets see what happens after our markets impose penalties on HFT quote stuffing. I get the feeling that the HFTs are the only thing keeping the markets up.

A united euro government will help a lot. It will prevent one country from screwing all the others & then bailing out of the euro. The Euro Nation would directly control each states budget. United defense, rail & interstate highway system. Without strict controls, one country's politician will always sweep shit under the rug so it will explode later on the next guy & screw all the other states just like Greece did. Right now Greece is to big to fail. But Italy is to big to bail-out. That shit will take everybody down.

A united Euro government is unworkable. You can't wish away more than a thousand years of history.

Well they did agree to a united currency. If they do not follow through with a united government then their currency is certainly doomed to fail.

It also mean that the IMF/World Bank's currency SDR's are also doomed to fail. So much for their plans for a one world currency or government.

 

[Trajan]

great debate. worth a view if this interest you at all.




unk Debates Live: "Has The European Experiment Failed?" - Niall Ferguson And Others Dissect Today's Most Critical Issue

overview-

Today's most exciting piece of financial analysis and debate has been conveniently saved until early evening, when courtesy of BNN's "Munk Debates" we will get a great discussion on the number one topic of the times: whether the European experiment has failed. Arguing for the argument will be famed historian Niall Ferguson as well as Josef Joffe, while the contra side will be defended by Daniel Cohn-Bendit and Peter Mandelson. Courtesy of BNN: "In the sweep of human history, the European Union stands out as one of humankind's most ambitious endeavors. It encompasses half a billion people, twenty-seven member states, twenty-three languages and an economy valued at over $15 trillion. Modern Europe's stunning achievements aside, its sovereign debt crisis has shaken the world's largest political and economic union to its core. Can the federal institutions and shared values of Europeans meet the challenges of debt crisis that are as much political as economic? Or, are Europe's current woes indicative of a series of deep structural faults that will doom the European Union to breakup and failure?"

more at-

Munk Debates Live: "Has The European Experiment Failed?" - Niall Ferguson And Others Dissect Today's Most Critical Issue | ZeroHedge

watch at-


Europe Debate - Livestream | Munk Debates

 

[Toro]

Two good pieces.

Greece, the Euro, and Behavioral Economics : The New Yorker
Money Is Vanishing From Southern Europe

 

[Toro]

Spain May Use Its Debt Instead of Cash for Bankia Group - Bloomberg

 

[FireFly]

Is it still a good time to short the Euro vs Dollar or will there be a bounce back?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Is it still a good time to short the Euro vs Dollar or will there be a bounce back?

Probably, but you gotta realize that the churn in the value of the EURUSD pair is greater than the ability of most amateurs and diletantes to weather out. If you use a really small position that you ocan provide margin call for if the EURUSD reverse by several hundred pips, then you arent going to make a very large profit as a percentage anyway.

From week to week the EURUSD swings back and forth hundreds of pips and it is no straight slide down ever.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Greece to leave Euro if opposition wins
News Headlines

 

[Trajan]

had a good laugh here..

 

[Trajan]

Spain May Use Its Debt Instead of Cash for Bankia Group - Bloomberg

this:

Risks to Spain’s financial industry and the state are becoming increasingly intertwined as the government’s access to borrowing narrows.

Foreign investors cut their holdings of Spanish debt of 37 percent Spain’s total outstanding debt in circulation in April from 50 percent at the end of last year. Domestic lenders, bolstered by emergency funding from the ECB, have picked up the slack, increasing their share to 29 percent from 17 percent over the same period.

 

[Trajan]

Two good pieces.

Greece, the Euro, and Behavioral Economics : The New Yorker
Money Is Vanishing From Southern Europe

what a joke, greece was 'lent' $174 billion, thats 75% of one years GDP. And that 'cushion' was blown away in less than a year. just awful.

and;

To move Europe away from the brink, voters and politicians on all sides need to stop asking themselves what’s fair and start asking themselves what’s possible

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2012/06/04/120604ta_talk_surowiecki#ixzz1wJKPe2Ke

yes true, but, I have not heard word 1 on- REFORM and GROWTH , what it looks like where it comes from........

 

[KissMy]

 

[Trajan]

Ireland votes this Thursday on the new fiscal austerity plan......Greece goeas back to vote for a new gov, again, June 17th.....gonna be an interesting month.

The micks should stay on course and say yes, BUT, if they say no, I don't blame them. they were the first to have tightened their belts and comparably, Greece has gotten away with murder....

 

[Trajan]

a palate cleanser....


Spain faces 'total emergency' as fear grips markets
Spain is facing the gravest danger since the end of the Franco dictatorship as the country is frozen out of global capital markets and slides towards an epic showdown with Europe.

“We’re in a situation of total emergency, the worst crisis we have ever lived through” said ex-premier Felipe Gonzalez, the country’s elder statesman.

The warning came as the yields on Spanish 10-year bonds spiked to 6.7pc, pushing the “risk premium” over German Bunds to a post-euro high of 540 basis points. The IBEX index of stocks in Madrid fell 2.6pc, the lowest since the dotcom bust in 2003.

Chaos over the €23.5bn rescue of crippled lender Bankia has led to the abrupt resignation of central bank governor Miguel Ángel Fernández Ordóñez, who testified to the senate that he had been muzzled to avoid enflaming events as confidence in the country drains away.

Markets are on tenterhooks as Spanish yields test levels that forced the European Central Bank to respond last November with its €1 trillion liquidity blitz. “Nobody is short Spanish debt right now because they are expecting ECB intervention,” said Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS. “If it doesn’t come -- if we take out 6.8pc -- we’re going to see a hyberbolic sell-off,” he said.

Italy felt the full brunt of contagion from Spain on Wednesday, with 10-year yileds back near 6pc. The euro fell to a 2-year low of $1.239 against the dollar. Crude oil and metal prices plummeted and save-haven flight pushed rates on 2-year German debt to zero. Gilt yields fell to 1.64pc, the lowest in history.

more at-
Spain faces 'total emergency' as fear grips markets - Telegraph

 

[JimBowie1958]

Ireland votes this Thursday on the new fiscal austerity plan......Greece goeas back to vote for a new gov, again, June 17th.....gonna be an interesting month.

The micks should stay on course and say yes, BUT, if they say no, I don't blame them. they were the first to have tightened their belts and comparably, Greece has gotten away with murder....

All the Southern countries are rejecting austerity, so why should Ireland play the martyr?