The Gold and Silver Thread

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Looks like "The Fed" had a hand in creating 1,500 Trillion in Derivatives.

They did? How?

By printing money for banks to play in Casinos (Stock Market) with.
The total world GDP is roughly 60-70 Trillion, The Derivatives Market is at least 1,600 Trillion.

here's a way to understand it for a liberal . There are $11 trillion in homes in the USA so in effect $11 trillion in value is insured. If others want to speculate or invest in that market they can.The value of the insurance or deriviatives can go to 22 trillion or 44 trillion or 88 trillion but in the end if every house disappeared only $11 trillion is at risk, not the 22 or 44, or 1600 trillion. Liberals act like tomorrow someone has to come up with $1600 trillion. Nothing could further from the truth.

 

[william the wie]

They did? How?

By printing money for banks to play in Casinos (Stock Market) with.
The total world GDP is roughly 60-70 Trillion, The Derivatives Market is at least 1,600 Trillion.

here's a way to understand it for a liberal . There are $11 trillion in homes in the USA so in effect $11 trillion in value is insured. If others want to speculate or invest in that market they can.The value of the insurance or deriviatives can go to 22 trillion or 44 trillion or 88 trillion but in the end if every house disappeared only $11 trillion is at risk, not the 22 or 44, or 1600 trillion. Liberals act like tomorrow someone has to come up with $1600 trillion. Nothing could further from the truth.

Wait a minute that should read home mortgages. Total real estate value is 5-8 times GDP and a huge hunk of housing close to half is owned free and clear.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

By printing money for banks to play in Casinos (Stock Market) with.
The total world GDP is roughly 60-70 Trillion, The Derivatives Market is at least 1,600 Trillion.

here's a way to understand it for a liberal . There are $11 trillion in homes in the USA so in effect $11 trillion in value is insured. If others want to speculate or invest in that market they can.The value of the insurance or deriviatives can go to 22 trillion or 44 trillion or 88 trillion but in the end if every house disappeared only $11 trillion is at risk, not the 22 or 44, or 1600 trillion. Liberals act like tomorrow someone has to come up with $1600 trillion. Nothing could further from the truth.

Wait a minute that should read home mortgages. Total real estate value is 5-8 times GDP and a huge hunk of housing close to half is owned free and clear.

yes but each house is still insured so each house means someone is on the hook for full value of 175K

 

[Toro]

Gold and silver took a beating today. The jobs number came in better than expected. More jobs means less potential QE, and the precious metals were crushed.

 

[KissMy]

Gold is up because there is no capital gains tax on gold.

 

[expat_panama]

...there is no capital gains tax on gold...

You may want to read page D-11 of this IRS publication that includes this--

--and then pay up that 28% you've been evading plus fines and penalties.

 

[KissMy]

...there is no capital gains tax on gold...

You may want to read page D-11 of this IRS publication that includes this--
--and then pay up that 28% you've been evading plus fines and penalties.

Only if you are stupid enough to tell them. There is no record when I buy or sell gold. No one ask for ID or SSN. You will however have to pay higher taxes on your gains in Apple stock over the past 9 years if you don't sell before the year end. That is why all the high flying stocks are tanking & gold is rising.

 

[william the wie]

...there is no capital gains tax on gold...

You may want to read page D-11 of this IRS publication that includes this--
--and then pay up that 28% you've been evading plus fines and penalties.

Only if you are stupid enough to tell them. There is no record when I buy or sell gold. No one ask for ID or SSN. You will however have to pay higher taxes on your gains in Apple stock over the past 9 years if you don't sell before the year end. That is why all the high flying stocks are tanking & gold is rising.

And the IRS doesn't check out sites like this?

 

[KissMy]

You may want to read page D-11 of this IRS publication that includes this--
--and then pay up that 28% you've been evading plus fines and penalties.

Only if you are stupid enough to tell them. There is no record when I buy or sell gold. No one ask for ID or SSN. You will however have to pay higher taxes on your gains in Apple stock over the past 9 years if you don't sell before the year end. That is why all the high flying stocks are tanking & gold is rising.

And the IRS doesn't check out sites like this?

When they get around to those offshore tax havens, tax haven charities, Swiss accounts, Nevada corporations, etc. I may think about hiding it a little better.

 

[KissMy]

The looming fiscal cliff is killing Gold's MoJo. If we go over the cliff, the debt will contract & gold will dive until Bernanke unleashes a tsunami of money. Gold will move in both directions in advance of the events. It's going to be a wild ride.

 

[KissMy]

Default on or non payment of debt causes deflation. Just like when people failed to pay their home loans. Money is created (inflation) when money is borrowed. Money is destroyed (deflation) when debt is wiped out or not repaid.

DEFLATION?????

If the US fails to pay its on its bonds as specified by contract, that will cause the largest INFLATION ever.

US specie would become entirely WORTHLESS

Why would you believe that? They did it in 1933 when they confiscated gold & again in 1971 when they took the dollar off of the gold standard. All they have to do is write down the "US Treasuries" held by the "Federal Reserve Bank" & then raise interest rates back up to stop inflation.

This plan is gaining traction. Why not mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin?

They could mint the $Trillion coin from the isotopically pure platinum-190 which is the most precious metal in the world & cost a billion dollar an ounce. "Robert A. Freitas Jr., author of “Tangible Nanomoney” in Issue 2 of the Nanotechnology Industries Newsletter, speculates a figure for 190Pt of $1,347,960 per gram for 4.19% enrichment. This would come out to $32 million per gram in its pure state, or about $1 billion per troy ounce."

 

[Zander]

The looming fiscal cliff is killing Gold's MoJo. If we go over the cliff, the debt will contract & gold will dive until Bernanke unleashes a tsunami of money. Gold will move in both directions in advance of the events. It's going to be a wild ride.

Gold prices tend to rise when the economy is expanding, they tend to fall when the economy contracts. With the bevy of new taxes being levied on Americans, we'll be lucky to see tepid or no growth in 2013 (economists are saying 1-2%). That leads me to believe that Gold prices will fall.

 

[Toro]

The looming fiscal cliff is killing Gold's MoJo. If we go over the cliff, the debt will contract & gold will dive until Bernanke unleashes a tsunami of money. Gold will move in both directions in advance of the events. It's going to be a wild ride.

Gold prices tend to rise when the economy is expanding, they tend to fall when the economy contracts. With the bevy of new taxes being levied on Americans, we'll be lucky to see tepid or no growth in 2013 (economists are saying 1-2%). That leads me to believe that Gold prices will fall.

There's no correlation between economic growth and gold prices. Counter-intuitively, there is no correlation between consumer prices and gold prices either.

I don't know what gold is going to do. What I do know is that since gold hit its all-time peak at $1921, it has acted poorly. It may be consolidating or it may be breaking down. In the near-term, it appears to be breaking down.

On the other hand, the dollar may be putting in a bottom, at least against other fiat currencies. The DXY has been continuously bouncing off 78. I am long the dollar.

The fundamentals continue to favour gold. However, I am ultimately a chartist for commodities. I don't know if gold has topped, but it will one day. And when it ends, it will be very ugly, and will go to levels the biggest gold bulls would totally disbelieve today.

 

[Zander]

The looming fiscal cliff is killing Gold's MoJo. If we go over the cliff, the debt will contract & gold will dive until Bernanke unleashes a tsunami of money. Gold will move in both directions in advance of the events. It's going to be a wild ride.

Gold prices tend to rise when the economy is expanding, they tend to fall when the economy contracts. With the bevy of new taxes being levied on Americans, we'll be lucky to see tepid or no growth in 2013 (economists are saying 1-2%). That leads me to believe that Gold prices will fall.

There's no correlation between economic growth and gold prices. Counter-intuitively, there is no correlation between consumer prices and gold prices either.

I don't know what gold is going to do. What I do know is that since gold hit its all-time peak at $1921, it has acted poorly. It may be consolidating or it may be breaking down. In the near-term, it appears to be breaking down.

On the other hand, the dollar may be putting in a bottom, at least against other fiat currencies. The DXY has been continuously bouncing off 78. I am long the dollar.

The fundamentals continue to favour gold. However, I am ultimately a chartist for commodities. I don't know if gold has topped, but it will one day. And when it ends, it will be very ugly, and will go to levels the biggest gold bulls would totally disbelieve today.

I said that Gold prices do TEND to rise in economic expansions and fall in contractions. If you look at the 2008 crisis Gold fell 34% and Silver fell 61%. If you expect another crisis, then you should expect a decline. The only thing that gives me any pause is that the Daily Sentiment Index shows Gold bullish sentiment at only 6%......

Happy trading!

 

[Toro]

I agree that a crisis will cause gold prices to fall. That's why I wouldn't hold it in front of the debt ceiling negotiations.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

I agree that a crisis will cause gold prices to fall. That's why I wouldn't hold it in front of the debt ceiling negotiations.

I'm lost, a crisis ought to make it rise, not fall.

 

[Toro]

I agree that a crisis will cause gold prices to fall. That's why I wouldn't hold it in front of the debt ceiling negotiations.

I'm lost, a crisis ought to make it rise, not fall.

You're right. It might go up. It did go up when the debt ceiling didn't get lifted in 2011. But that was in the midst of a buying frenzy that had been going on for a few months.

Gold has been acting more as a liquidity barometer than a fear indicator the past 10 years. It fell 25% when Lehman collapsed. If liquidity is pulled from the market, which is what would happen if we fail to lift the debt ceiling, asset prices will fall. My guess is that gold would fall with it. But maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Gadawg73]

The looming fiscal cliff is killing Gold's MoJo. If we go over the cliff, the debt will contract & gold will dive until Bernanke unleashes a tsunami of money. Gold will move in both directions in advance of the events. It's going to be a wild ride.

Gold prices tend to rise when the economy is expanding, they tend to fall when the economy contracts. With the bevy of new taxes being levied on Americans, we'll be lucky to see tepid or no growth in 2013 (economists are saying 1-2%). That leads me to believe that Gold prices will fall.

There's no correlation between economic growth and gold prices. Counter-intuitively, there is no correlation between consumer prices and gold prices either.

I don't know what gold is going to do. What I do know is that since gold hit its all-time peak at $1921, it has acted poorly. It may be consolidating or it may be breaking down. In the near-term, it appears to be breaking down.

On the other hand, the dollar may be putting in a bottom, at least against other fiat currencies. The DXY has been continuously bouncing off 78. I am long the dollar.

The fundamentals continue to favour gold. However, I am ultimately a chartist for commodities. I don't know if gold has topped, but it will one day. And when it ends, it will be very ugly, and will go to levels the biggest gold bulls would totally disbelieve today.

I am long on the dollar also.
Bond funds which have expanded dramatically with low interest rates will take a hit when rates go up but possibly not as bad as expected with the dollar where it is and staying.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

I agree that a crisis will cause gold prices to fall. That's why I wouldn't hold it in front of the debt ceiling negotiations.

I'm lost, a crisis ought to make it rise, not fall.

You're right. It might go up. It did go up when the debt ceiling didn't get lifted in 2011. But that was in the midst of a buying frenzy that had been going on for a few months.

Gold has been acting more as a liquidity barometer than a fear indicator the past 10 years. It fell 25% when Lehman collapsed. If liquidity is pulled from the market, which is what would happen if we fail to lift the debt ceiling, asset prices will fall. My guess is that gold would fall with it. But maybe I'm wrong.

I don't know it seems to me the world can count on the Greenspan PUT more than ever thanks to Ben.

If we fail to lift the debt ceiling the world may take us seriously about our determination to live within our means, although in the very short term there might be panic.

Lehman I'd guess is past history since we are now in bailout heaven, whereas then we had no idea what might happen or even if we knew how to bail out a company so thoroughly integrated into the economy.

 

[william the wie]

Toro, I may be wrong but I thought junk gold conversion rates were keeping gold prices low. As that source of supply dries up I would expect gold prices to rise.