Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support

[bripat9643]

The bad news for Hillary just keeps piling up:

Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support​

What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.​

 

[saveliberty]

Trump will NEVER under estimate his support, that is for sure.

 

[candycorn]

Oh my heavens, what will we do?

 

[jknowgood]

Oh my heavens, what will we do?

Say president Trump.

 

[Esmeralda]

Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support

You wish. LOL

 

[mamooth]

You mean it will only be a 42-state sweep for Hillary instead of 45 states?

 

[Meathead]

You mean it will only be a 42-state sweep for Hillary instead of 45 states?

You might call it a wipe, you know, like with a cloth or something. She is too sleazy an damaged. That beast has flown.

 

[Correll]

As I said in another similar thread, my father in law is somewhat in this category.

He supports Trump because of Trump's issues, but he is uncomfortable with his style.


After the primaries when more people pay closer attention and it become obvious that Trump is a serious contender, with approximately half the country supporting him, those people will become more comfortable with admitting their support.

It could have a nice snowball effect.

 

[the_human_being]

Trump will win by a landslide. Most of the polls only survey the registered Republican voters. Trump will win the majority of the Independents as well as a sizeable number of the Old School JFK type Democrat votes. There are a whole lot of folks who are angry with the failed policies of Obama and the Democrat Party and they see Hillary as a huge part of those policies.

 

[toxicmedia]

The bad news for Hillary just keeps piling up:

Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support​

What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.​

Hillary's favorables are not high enough to get her the party's nomination. I believe Sanders will be nominated.

I also believe if Trump is nominated, he will lose. Because this decision for American voters will be largely decided by debates where the red meat he's currently tossing righties, won't be what wins favor with swing voters

 

[Moonglow]

This sounds like the shit they were flinging when Mittens was running against Oblama...

 

[Correll]

The bad news for Hillary just keeps piling up:

Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support​

What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.​

Hillary's favorables are not high enough to get her the party's nomination. I believe Sanders will be nominated.

I also believe if Trump is nominated, he will lose. Because this decision for American voters will be largely decided by debates where the red meat he's currently tossing righties, won't be what wins favor with swing voters

Sanders is to far to the Left to appeal to moderates and conservative democrats.

THat red meat is not designed just for righties but for all Working Class or Middle Class voters.

 

[Mac1958]

As I recall, part of Limbaugh's reasoning for predicting a Romney win in 2012 was the Bradley Effect.

Anything can happen, I guess, but I'd more likely put my money on the polls.
.

 

[toxicmedia]

The bad news for Hillary just keeps piling up:

Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support​

What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.​

Hillary's favorables are not high enough to get her the party's nomination. I believe Sanders will be nominated.

I also believe if Trump is nominated, he will lose. Because this decision for American voters will be largely decided by debates where the red meat he's currently tossing righties, won't be what wins favor with swing voters

Sanders is to far to the Left to appeal to moderates and conservative democrats.

THat red meat is not designed just for righties but for all Working Class or Middle Class voters.

Wow, that's really "in the Fox News echo chamber" kind of thinking.

The Democrats know righties and swing voters will hate Hillary equally.

Trump's red meat may be designed for whatever they've designed it for, but getting through to swing voters throughout 3 long debates, where what he's doing now needs to be changed, is a whole other deal

 

[longknife]

The polls don't mean suck! The vast majority of people either ignore or lie to pollsters.

The only thing that will count is the final vote tally.

 

[BluesLegend]

You mean it will only be a 42-state sweep for Hillary instead of 45 states?

Ahahaha I saved this to my favorites so I can rub salt in your wounds next November.

 

[Claudette]

Hell. Polls I heard over the weekend said that the least of the GOP contenders could beat Hitlery.

Are they true?? 2016 will tell the tale.

 

[Correll]

The bad news for Hillary just keeps piling up:

Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support​

What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.​

Hillary's favorables are not high enough to get her the party's nomination. I believe Sanders will be nominated.

I also believe if Trump is nominated, he will lose. Because this decision for American voters will be largely decided by debates where the red meat he's currently tossing righties, won't be what wins favor with swing voters

Sanders is to far to the Left to appeal to moderates and conservative democrats.

THat red meat is not designed just for righties but for all Working Class or Middle Class voters.

Wow, that's really "in the Fox News echo chamber" kind of thinking.

The Democrats know righties and swing voters will hate Hillary equally.

Trump's red meat may be designed for whatever they've designed it for, but getting through to swing voters throughout 3 long debates, where what he's doing now needs to be changed, is a whole other deal

Debates? Changed?

He wants to renegotiate Trade Deals that have been F**ING US for decades. That is going to sell real well in the Rust Belt.

He wants to deport illegals that are taking jobs, suppressing wages and causing crime. That will be popular just about everywhere else where the Working Class and the Middle CLass can see it happening.

He don't have to change that, and getting that message out will not be limited to the debates.

 

[toxicmedia]

The bad news for Hillary just keeps piling up:

Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support​

What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.​

Hillary's favorables are not high enough to get her the party's nomination. I believe Sanders will be nominated.

I also believe if Trump is nominated, he will lose. Because this decision for American voters will be largely decided by debates where the red meat he's currently tossing righties, won't be what wins favor with swing voters

Sanders is to far to the Left to appeal to moderates and conservative democrats.

THat red meat is not designed just for righties but for all Working Class or Middle Class voters.

Wow, that's really "in the Fox News echo chamber" kind of thinking.

The Democrats know righties and swing voters will hate Hillary equally.

Trump's red meat may be designed for whatever they've designed it for, but getting through to swing voters throughout 3 long debates, where what he's doing now needs to be changed, is a whole other deal

Debates? Changed?

He wants to renegotiate Trade Deals that have been F**ING US for decades. That is going to sell real well in the Rust Belt.

He wants to deport illegals that are taking jobs, suppressing wages and causing crime. That will be popular just about everywhere else where the Working Class and the Middle CLass can see it happening.

He don't have to change that, and getting that message out will not be limited to the debates.

The average Joe voter won't grasp the impact of trade deals on them.

It's impossible to deport 11 million illegals, andeverybody knows that except Fox News viewers. If Trump promises that, he'll never deliver

 

[Correll]

The bad news for Hillary just keeps piling up:

Uh-Oh: Polls May Actually Underestimate Trump's Support​

What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.​

Hillary's favorables are not high enough to get her the party's nomination. I believe Sanders will be nominated.

I also believe if Trump is nominated, he will lose. Because this decision for American voters will be largely decided by debates where the red meat he's currently tossing righties, won't be what wins favor with swing voters

Sanders is to far to the Left to appeal to moderates and conservative democrats.

THat red meat is not designed just for righties but for all Working Class or Middle Class voters.

Wow, that's really "in the Fox News echo chamber" kind of thinking.

The Democrats know righties and swing voters will hate Hillary equally.

Trump's red meat may be designed for whatever they've designed it for, but getting through to swing voters throughout 3 long debates, where what he's doing now needs to be changed, is a whole other deal

Debates? Changed?

He wants to renegotiate Trade Deals that have been F**ING US for decades. That is going to sell real well in the Rust Belt.

He wants to deport illegals that are taking jobs, suppressing wages and causing crime. That will be popular just about everywhere else where the Working Class and the Middle CLass can see it happening.

He don't have to change that, and getting that message out will not be limited to the debates.

The average Joe voter won't grasp the impact of trade deals on them.

It's impossible to deport 11 million illegals, andeverybody knows that except Fox News viewers. If Trump promises that, he'll never deliver

I think you are seriously underestimating "average joes".

It is not impossible to deport 11 million people. And if we fail and only deport 8 million, and we stop giving citizenship to their children, that would still be a massive improvement.