US debt and the future

Freewill

Platinum Member
Oct 26, 2011
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In another thread this following quote, hyperbole removed by me, was posted. I would like to calmly discuss the validity of the following statement.

"What drives up the debt and the astronomical cost of government is the welfare state, subsidies, bailouts and entitlements, That includes foreign welfare."


For the discussion I found the following site with some plain English information:

Q&A: Everything You Need to Know About the National Debt - Fix The Debt

How big is the debt?

Currently, the national debt held by the public is over $13 trillion, which is around 74 percent of the country’s economy, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The gross debt, which includes money owed to other parts of the federal government, is over $18 trillion, or roughly 102 percent of GDP.

Throughout history, the United States has normally maintained some amount of debt. However, with the exception of a brief period during and immediately after World War II, debt levels have never been as high as they are now. Without congressional action, debt levels will continue increasing.

Does the above information mean that the US in in debt to the tune of 176 percent of the US economy? WHOW.

What is driving our future debt path?

Many of the drivers of our past debt are nearing resolution—the wars are winding down and the economy is recovering. Unfortunately, our future debt will grow if nothing is done, due to a different set of factors. These include:

Population Aging: As the population grows older, spending on Social Security and Medicare will increase dramatically. Additionally, these older Americans will no longer be working and will pay fewer taxes, leading to lower revenues.

Rapid Health Care Cost Growth: Federal health spending is currently equal to 5.2 percent of the economy. In 25 years, it is projected to rise to approximately 8 percent.

Growing Interest Costs: As interest rates return to normal levels, the cost of interest payments on debt already borrowed will increase.

Insufficient Revenue: The historical amount of revenue collected is not sufficient to afford record-high levels of retirees, health care spending, and interest. Our debt problems are so large they cannot be solved by either spending cuts or revenue increases alone.

From the following site I obtained the charts that follow:

Federal Spending: Where Does the Money Go

total_spending_pie%2C__2015_enacted.png


315badf0cfdfe0a2d03fe20615ee052b.jpg


taxexpenditures_discretionary_barchart_6.11.15.png
 
Let's look at what I assume is meant by "foreign welfare."

It appears that out of 3.8 Trillion in revenue foreign affairs accounts for 41 billion. which is 41^9/3.8^12= 1 percent of the spending. (please check my math)

If the information provided above is correct, or anywhere close to correct. It would appear that international affairs does not significantly add to the US debt.

On edit: The above numbers are for the entire budget. When in fact international affairs is reported to be 4 percent of discretionary spending.
 
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Why is it that VA and military spending are always counted as separate ? They hide military spending in other areas to make it seem less .
 
The Baby Boomer population is distorting our economy right now and will continue to do so for a while. Federal spending will have to increase to deal with them on health care and social security, and there's simply nothing that can be done about that outside of tossing them into the streets.

That's about, what, 40% of our economy.

This shouldn't be a political issue, but since everything just has to be a political issue these days, there's every possibility our politicians, politicos and partisans will find a way to fuck this up.
.
 
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Why is it that VA and military spending are always counted as separate ? They hide military spending in other areas to make it seem less .

This might explain it:

mandatory_spending_pie%2C__2015_enacted.png


discretionary_spending_pie%2C_2015_enacted.png


I kinda think we HAVE to take care of those who were hurt in our military. But we don't necessarily have to spend money on military hardware.
 
Our trade deficits also contribute to the debt. We borrow back the money Chinese manufacturers made off us. From their perspective, they spend a lot of that money on secure T-Bills.
 
The Baby Boomer population is distorting our economy right now and will continue to do so for a while. Federal spending will have to increase to deal with them on health care and social security, and there's simply nothing that can be done about that outside of tossing them into the streets.

That's about 60% of our economy.

This shouldn't be a political issue, but since everything just has to be a political issue these days, there's every possibility our politicians, politicos and partisans will find a way to fuck this up.
.

RIGHT now, this minute, this hour, this second Social Security is solvant. It only adds to the debt because it is like China who buys our debt.

Yes, the directors of SS predict that IN THE FUTURE there will be problems funding SS. But for now SS doesn't add anything to the debt it is just another debt holder, owed by the federal government.

So, right now, this minute, this hour, this second SS is not the problem with debt EXCEPT, it does effect the general budget because of the interest payments owed.

Which is interesting that SS is always called out on effecting the budget but debt to China or anywhere else does the same.

So yes, by buying US notes as an investment SS adds to the debt of the US. Maybe that is why investing in the stock market was a good idea.

More information about SS here: Debunking 8 Social Security Myths on Its 80th Birthday
 
What's the big deal? Don't you know money grows on trees?

Just ask Obama, any Dem or lib...they will gladly inform you....while condemning Bush for blowing up the national debt.
 
I have no idea why this isn't a big concern to politicians and the American people....
This should be the first question at every debate and candidates appearances ....

What is your plan to deal with the crushing debt....

It's going to be a bigger problem servicing the debt if interest rates go up....

And more and more people retiring will push SS and Medicare to the brink....

We all know about it.
Politicians talk about it....
Nothing gets done.....

Libs say it's only 70+ % of GDP so it's not an issue....
Libs also say anyone who bitches about is racist because they didn't bitch about it when Bush was President.
Republicans don't seem to care all that much about it....

I am wondering when this will be something that interests people....Dems and republicans

When the debt is 99% of GDP and the interest alone is 10% give or take.....
 
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The Baby Boomer population is distorting our economy right now and will continue to do so for a while. Federal spending will have to increase to deal with them on health care and social security, and there's simply nothing that can be done about that outside of tossing them into the streets.

That's about 60% of our economy.

This shouldn't be a political issue, but since everything just has to be a political issue these days, there's every possibility our politicians, politicos and partisans will find a way to fuck this up.
.

RIGHT now, this minute, this hour, this second Social Security is solvant. It only adds to the debt because it is like China who buys our debt.

Yes, the directors of SS predict that IN THE FUTURE there will be problems funding SS. But for now SS doesn't add anything to the debt it is just another debt holder, owed by the federal government.

So, right now, this minute, this hour, this second SS is not the problem with debt EXCEPT, it does effect the general budget because of the interest payments owed.

Which is interesting that SS is always called out on effecting the budget but debt to China or anywhere else does the same.

So yes, by buying US notes as an investment SS adds to the debt of the US. Maybe that is why investing in the stock market was a good idea.

More information about SS here: Debunking 8 Social Security Myths on Its 80th Birthday
Political debate will continue on this, but the fact is that personal income taxes are going to go up to deal with Social Security and Medicare. There will be squabbling and screaming about this to be sure, but it's going to happen as sure as the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning.

Might that retard economic growth? Might that lead to a general decrease in our standard of living? Yep, that's possible, and we're just going to have to deal with it.

A more interesting discussion would be what our taxes and economy will look like once most of the Baby Boomer population dies off.
.
 
The Baby Boomer population is distorting our economy right now and will continue to do so for a while. Federal spending will have to increase to deal with them on health care and social security, and there's simply nothing that can be done about that outside of tossing them into the streets.

That's about 60% of our economy.

This shouldn't be a political issue, but since everything just has to be a political issue these days, there's every possibility our politicians, politicos and partisans will find a way to fuck this up.
.

RIGHT now, this minute, this hour, this second Social Security is solvant. It only adds to the debt because it is like China who buys our debt.

Yes, the directors of SS predict that IN THE FUTURE there will be problems funding SS. But for now SS doesn't add anything to the debt it is just another debt holder, owed by the federal government.

So, right now, this minute, this hour, this second SS is not the problem with debt EXCEPT, it does effect the general budget because of the interest payments owed.

Which is interesting that SS is always called out on effecting the budget but debt to China or anywhere else does the same.

So yes, by buying US notes as an investment SS adds to the debt of the US. Maybe that is why investing in the stock market was a good idea.

More information about SS here: Debunking 8 Social Security Myths on Its 80th Birthday
Political debate will continue on this, but the fact is that personal income taxes are going to go up to deal with Social Security and Medicare. There will be squabbling and screaming about this to be sure, but it's going to happen as sure as the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning.

Might that retard economic growth? Might that lead to a general decrease in our standard of living? Yep, that's possible, and we're just going to have to deal with it.

A more interesting discussion would be what our taxes and economy will look like once most of the Baby Boomer population dies off.
.

According to this chart, I see a small boomer bump in population, age 50 to 60. After that pretty much flat line.

I assume, with today's immigration policy, the jobs that the boomers held will be held by someone else, I doubt they will be buried with the boomers.

united-states-population-pyramid-2014.gif


United States Age structure - Demographics
 
The Baby Boomer population is distorting our economy right now and will continue to do so for a while. Federal spending will have to increase to deal with them on health care and social security, and there's simply nothing that can be done about that outside of tossing them into the streets.

That's about 60% of our economy.

This shouldn't be a political issue, but since everything just has to be a political issue these days, there's every possibility our politicians, politicos and partisans will find a way to fuck this up.
.

RIGHT now, this minute, this hour, this second Social Security is solvant. It only adds to the debt because it is like China who buys our debt.

Yes, the directors of SS predict that IN THE FUTURE there will be problems funding SS. But for now SS doesn't add anything to the debt it is just another debt holder, owed by the federal government.

So, right now, this minute, this hour, this second SS is not the problem with debt EXCEPT, it does effect the general budget because of the interest payments owed.

Which is interesting that SS is always called out on effecting the budget but debt to China or anywhere else does the same.

So yes, by buying US notes as an investment SS adds to the debt of the US. Maybe that is why investing in the stock market was a good idea.

More information about SS here: Debunking 8 Social Security Myths on Its 80th Birthday
Political debate will continue on this, but the fact is that personal income taxes are going to go up to deal with Social Security and Medicare. There will be squabbling and screaming about this to be sure, but it's going to happen as sure as the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning.

Might that retard economic growth? Might that lead to a general decrease in our standard of living? Yep, that's possible, and we're just going to have to deal with it.

A more interesting discussion would be what our taxes and economy will look like once most of the Baby Boomer population dies off.
.

According to this chart, I see a small boomer bump in population, age 50 to 60. After that pretty much flat line.

I assume, with today's immigration policy, the jobs that the boomers held will be held by someone else, I doubt they will be buried with the boomers.

united-states-population-pyramid-2014.gif


United States Age structure - Demographics
Look at the ages 45+. Health care spending really explodes after that age: https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statis...pendData/Downloads/2010GenderandAgeTables.pdf

So yeah, what we really want is a flatline. That would take distortions out of the system. But for now, that generation is gonna cost us. Just another reason why it's so critical we do a far better job of managing health care costs, and we're miles from that right now.

76 million Baby Boomers.
.
 
Last edited:
The Baby Boomer population is distorting our economy right now and will continue to do so for a while. Federal spending will have to increase to deal with them on health care and social security, and there's simply nothing that can be done about that outside of tossing them into the streets.

That's about 60% of our economy.

This shouldn't be a political issue, but since everything just has to be a political issue these days, there's every possibility our politicians, politicos and partisans will find a way to fuck this up.
.

RIGHT now, this minute, this hour, this second Social Security is solvant. It only adds to the debt because it is like China who buys our debt.

Yes, the directors of SS predict that IN THE FUTURE there will be problems funding SS. But for now SS doesn't add anything to the debt it is just another debt holder, owed by the federal government.

So, right now, this minute, this hour, this second SS is not the problem with debt EXCEPT, it does effect the general budget because of the interest payments owed.

Which is interesting that SS is always called out on effecting the budget but debt to China or anywhere else does the same.

So yes, by buying US notes as an investment SS adds to the debt of the US. Maybe that is why investing in the stock market was a good idea.

More information about SS here: Debunking 8 Social Security Myths on Its 80th Birthday
Political debate will continue on this, but the fact is that personal income taxes are going to go up to deal with Social Security and Medicare. There will be squabbling and screaming about this to be sure, but it's going to happen as sure as the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning.

Might that retard economic growth? Might that lead to a general decrease in our standard of living? Yep, that's possible, and we're just going to have to deal with it.

A more interesting discussion would be what our taxes and economy will look like once most of the Baby Boomer population dies off.
.

According to this chart, I see a small boomer bump in population, age 50 to 60. After that pretty much flat line.

I assume, with today's immigration policy, the jobs that the boomers held will be held by someone else, I doubt they will be buried with the boomers.

united-states-population-pyramid-2014.gif


United States Age structure - Demographics
Look at the ages 45+. Health care spending really explodes after that age: https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statis...pendData/Downloads/2010GenderandAgeTables.pdf

So yeah, what we really want is a flatline. That would take distortions out of the system. But for now, that generation is gonna cost us. Just another reason why it's so critical we do a far better job of managing health care costs, and we're miles from that right now.

76 million Baby Boomers.
.

Here, from the government:

usgs_chart2p84.png

US Government Entitlement Spending History with Charts - a www.usgovernmentspending.com briefing

united-states-population.png

United States Population | 1900-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
 
Why is it that VA and military spending are always counted as separate ? They hide military spending in other areas to make it seem less .

If only that was how the va worked !

Since we have obamacare, can't we get rid of the va ?
 
Why is it that VA and military spending are always counted as separate ? They hide military spending in other areas to make it seem less .

If only that was how the va worked !

Since we have obamacare, can't we get rid of the va ?

You apparently do not understand insurance or the VA. Which is OK and not meant as an insult. First of all, are we going to get rid of Medicare and medicaid? The answer is a resonding NO. The reason being is that those on those programs are at the most risk. First for health reasons and second for the ability to pay. So no private insurance wants to take on either so the government takes over.

Same with VA. We send troops to Syria and they get blown up, no private insurance wants that burden, so yes the VA is here to stay.
 
Why is it that VA and military spending are always counted as separate ? They hide military spending in other areas to make it seem less .

If only that was how the va worked !

Since we have obamacare, can't we get rid of the va ?

You apparently do not understand insurance or the VA. Which is OK and not meant as an insult. First of all, are we going to get rid of Medicare and medicaid? The answer is a resonding NO. The reason being is that those on those programs are at the most risk. First for health reasons and second for the ability to pay. So no private insurance wants to take on either so the government takes over.

Same with VA. We send troops to Syria and they get blown up, no private insurance wants that burden, so yes the VA is here to stay.

I'd be with you except the VA doesn't just care for those injured in the line of duty .

I think they should , then it's be more controllable .
 
Do you really want to address the debt?



Step one: Demand a fair and simple tax code where the average middle class taxpayer, people grossing between $50k and $250k, see no change in their total obligation.

Step two: Tell congress that they'll get paid if and when they pass a budget.
 
Why is it that VA and military spending are always counted as separate ? They hide military spending in other areas to make it seem less .

If only that was how the va worked !

Since we have obamacare, can't we get rid of the va ?

You apparently do not understand insurance or the VA. Which is OK and not meant as an insult. First of all, are we going to get rid of Medicare and medicaid? The answer is a resonding NO. The reason being is that those on those programs are at the most risk. First for health reasons and second for the ability to pay. So no private insurance wants to take on either so the government takes over.

Same with VA. We send troops to Syria and they get blown up, no private insurance wants that burden, so yes the VA is here to stay.

I'd be with you except the VA doesn't just care for those injured in the line of duty .

I think they should , then it's be more controllable .

The VA and Medicare should be merged in to a true public option of basic coverage priced according to one's age when they join or rejoin.
 

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