We Are Now at the Peak of the Hurricane Season and It’s Dead Quite

[MisterBeale]

What part of "an observation is not a prediction" is confusing you so?

This isn't complicated. A third grader could grasp it, but you can't. You shouldn't be bothering the grownups.

Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Yr Convection-Permitting Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation

Abstract Tropical cyclones have enormous costs to society through both loss of life and damage to infrastructure. There is good reason to believe that such storms will change in the future as a result of changes in the global climate system and that such changes may have important socioeconomic...

journals.ametsoc.org

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall - PubMed

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075888

 

[basquebromance]

the ONLY reason anyone would be against dealing with climate change through a Green New Deal is because they are in bed in with big oil, prostituting themselves to the big oil companies

 

[ding]

the ONLY reason anyone would be against dealing with climate change through a Green New Deal is because they are in bed in with big oil, prostituting themselves to the big oil companies

The emperor is naked, my guy.

 

[ReinyDays]

When will Ian begin his mass-murder plot? ...

 

[Likkmee]

When will Ian begin his mass-murder plot? ...

You'll hear a scream

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Just a few months ago the ‘experts’ with their nifty computer models told us we would have well above average number of hurricanes this year.

All is quite on the Western and Eastern fronts.

This should be the absolute peak of hurricane season—but it’s dead quiet out there

Seasonal activity is running 50 percent below normal levels.

arstechnica.com

We should be up to Cat 7 or 8 hurricanes by now! 800mph winds!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

You'll hear a scream

 

[CrusaderFrank]

the ONLY reason anyone would be against dealing with climate change through a Green New Deal is because they are in bed in with big oil, prostituting themselves to the big oil companies

I beg you to take your meds! You have a psychotic episode every hour!

 

[Flash]

Going into Florida. Looks like it detiorates from Cat 4 to Cat 1 as it nears. Hopefully that is the case.

The most reliable model (EURO) has it coming up the mouth of Tampa Bay at a Cat 4. That will be devastating. If this model is right my ass is grass and Ian is the lawn mower. I live on the Eastern side of Tampa. I don't have to worry about flooding but the wind will be a bastard.

The GFS model has it farther out in the Gulf but it has not been very reliable this year in path forecast.

It will only go to a Cat 1 if the GFS model is correct and it makes it up to the panhandle.

 

[Flash]

Stay safe Johnny Reb. As a fellow Gulf Coaster I've been in your shoes.

I have been in a dozen hurricanes. We are prepared but it will still be a pain in the ass.

 

[ReinyDays]

But ... but ... but ... it's "dead quiet" in the tropics ... didn't you read the OP? ... When St Petersburg and Clearwater get washed into the Gulf ... what will you call your sports teams? ... the Gulf of Mexico Rays? ...

Ian has Category 7 written all over it ...

 

[Flash]

But ... but ... but ... it's "dead quiet" in the tropics ... didn't you read the OP? ... When St Petersburg and Clearwater get washed into the Gulf ... what will you call your sports teams? ... the Gulf of Mexico Rays? ...

Ian has Category 7 written all over it ...

The consensus now is that the further north it goes before landfall the weaker it gets.

If it comes in south of Tampa it could be as much as a four. North of Tampa it could be a two. Way north of Tampa a one.

If Tampa got hit with a Cat 4 it would be a disaster.

Anyway we are all fucked here. Jim Cantore is on his way. It is never good when he shows up.

 

[jc456]

The consensus now is that the further north it goes before landfall the weaker it gets.

If it comes in south of Tampa it could be as much as a four. North of Tampa it could be a two. Way north of Tampa a one.

If Tampa got hit with a Cat 4 it would be a disaster.

Anyway we are all fucked here. Jim Cantore is on his way. It is never good when he shows up.

Weather channel has it at 50 mile an hour winds this morning

 

[Flash]

Weather channel has it at 50 mile an hour winds this morning

It will pick up intensity when it enters the Gulf.

 

[jc456]

It will pick up intensity when it enters the Gulf.

Or not

 

[Weatherman2020]

the ONLY reason anyone would be against dealing with climate change through a Green New Deal is because they are in bed in with big oil, prostituting themselves to the big oil companies

Climate Hawk Sean Casten Flew 6,000 Miles, Stayed in Luxury European Hotel to Fight Global Warming: Casten’s flights emitted more than 313,000 pounds of carbon.

 

[Flash]

Or not

I hope you are right but in the Gulf where it is entering there is very little wind shear and a lot of warm water and that usually produces a major hurricane.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

There's one of the gas giant planets that has sustained winds of over 900mph. Has to be due to CO2! Nothing else in the Universe can drive the climate to those extremes!!!!!

 

[jc456]

I hope you are right but in the Gulf where it is entering there is very little wind shear and a lot of warm water and that usually produces a major hurricane.

Hope I’m right

 

[ReinyDays]

What hope ... computer models are solid through 72 hours ... western Cuba is sure to get fucked ... the only question is where in Florida's nut sack does Ian land his kick ... Tampa is going to see some serious Southeast Quadrant action ... may God have mercy on their souls ...