We Are Now at the Peak of the Hurricane Season and It’s Dead Quite

[ReinyDays]

The warm water is ironically the result of the lack of storms in the area earlier in the season. Those storms didn't suck up the energy they would usually do, thus leaving it for later storms to intensify further.

This was my first thought ... and we'll see at the end of the season when the ACE numbers are made available ... the equator is still warmer than the poles, so energy will be moving towards the poles ... and tropical cyclones are going to carry their fair share of the energy whether in the North Atlantic or East Pacific, and for our friends in Australia, the Southern Ocean will be spawning cyclones within 6 months ...

The 30ºC SST out in the Gulf seem high to me ... but I honestly don't know how that compares to other years ...

 

[The Duke]

That thing about to go over Havana is a real storm.

 

[ReinyDays]

Utter bullshit. Here was the projected path just 68 hours before making landfall...

Can't you read? .. "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE." ...

What you posted is the human interpretation of the computer results ... the computers had Katrina landing on New Orleans ...

 

[Flash]

Hillsborough County is expecting at least 400K people that need to be evacuated. Pinellas County even more.

The wind damage is going to be significant but the flooding will be the worse case scenario for the Tampa Bay area.

Stores have already run out of everything. Many gas stations have run out of gas.

However, there is a beautiful morning now. Perfect early Florida fall.

 

[Flash]

 

[jc456]

Hillsborough County is expecting at least 400K people that need to be evacuated. Pinellas County even more.

The wind damage is going to be significant but the flooding will be the worse case scenario for the Tampa Bay area.

Stores have already run out of everything. Many gas stations have run out of gas.

However, there is a beautiful morning now. Perfect early Florida fall.

ahhh the demfok fear mongering set in already.

 

[The Duke]

Hillsborough County is expecting at least 400K people that need to be evacuated. Pinellas County even more.

The wind damage is going to be significant but the flooding will be the worse case scenario for the Tampa Bay area.

Stores have already run out of everything. Many gas stations have run out of gas.

However, there is a beautiful morning now. Perfect early Florida fall.

Meh, I got 2 vehicles full of gas and plenty for the John Deere. Be aight.

I do think the mixed is at about 1/2. Be aight. It's actually cooler and drier today. The 1st time since summer hit.

I suppose in a day or so will be blowing sideways. That's nothing new to me.

I reckon there's a frog-strangler comin'.

Good, I'll find out if my roof patch works or not.

 

[The Duke]

ahhh the demfok fear mongering set in already.

Yeah, they're panicking like a mofo.

 

[Faun]

Can't you read? .. "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE." ...

What you posted is the human interpretation of the computer results ... the computers had Katrina landing on New Orleans ...

Ah, so you choose to cover your previous bullshit with even more bullshit. I posted the "official forecast" which was based on the "concensus" of the global models. And on 8/26, none of the computer models accurately predicted Katrina would go directly through New Orleans.

Whereas by one day later, they did and the "official forecast" was updated, giving people in New Orleans about 2 days notice. NOT a full week as you lied about.

 

[The Duke]

Ah, so you choose to cover your previous bullshit with even more bullshit. I posted the "official forecast" which was based on the "concensus" of the global models. And on 8/26, none of the computer models accurately predicted Katrina would go directly through New Orleans.

View attachment 701730

Whereas by one day later, they did and the "official forecast" was updated, giving people in New Orleans about 2 days notice. NOT a full week as you lied about.

View attachment 701732

2 days is enough, shitbird. There's still criminals in prison in Florida that fled here like cockroaches after Katrina and thought they could run the same games they did in Loosiana.
What was that? 2005?

Yeah, Florida law does not play games.

 

[Faun]

2 days is enough, shitbird. There's still criminals in prison in Florida that fled here like cockroaches after Katrina and thought they could run the same games they did in Loosiana.
What was that? 2005?

Yeah, Florida law does not play games.

2 days is pushing it for those who choose to drive away from a storm. I live in south Florida and have been through enough hurricanes to know that the last place you wanna be is on a congested highway, trying to escape the path of a hurricane. And 2 days notice is less than 48 hours to escape. It takes a few hours of preparation until you get in your car. And the 2 day notice was when the eye of the storm was expected to reach land. There are hurricane force winds hitting hours before then. Wait too long to get on the road and you risk getting caught in that.

 

[jc456]

2 days is pushing it for those who choose to drive away from a storm. I live in south Florida and have been through enough hurricanes to know that the last place you wanna be is on a congested highway, trying to escape the path of a hurricane. And 2 days notice is less than 48 hours to escape. It takes a few hours of preparation until you get in your car. And the 2 day notice was when the eye of the storm was expected to reach land. There are hurricane force winds hitting hours before then. Wait too long to get on the road and you risk getting caught in that.

well at the week's notice, it was obvious it was coming close, and that means much rain. The outer bands are where most water is. So New Orleans was in that path a week ahead of time, and it was always on the map for consideration to hit. To think otherwise is naïve.

 

[Faun]

well at the week's notice, it was obvious it was coming close, and that means much rain. The outer bands are where most water is. So New Orleans was in that path a week ahead of time, and it was always on the map for consideration to hit. To think otherwise is naïve.

And that has what to do with the bullshit lie that "NOAA had the crosshairs on New Orleans 168 hours before impact?" and just 3 days before Katrina hit, New Orleans was about 260 miles west of where it was expected to hit and barely in the cone; with not one single computer model showing it hitting New Orleans. That would be like predicting a hurricane heading due west is going to hit Miami; folks in Daytona Beach, also about 260 miles away, would not be too overly concerned.

 

[ReinyDays]

Ah, so you choose to cover your previous bullshit with even more bullshit. I posted the "official forecast" which was based on the "concensus" of the global models. And on 8/26, none of the computer models accurately predicted Katrina would go directly through New Orleans.

View attachment 701730

Whereas by one day later, they did and the "official forecast" was updated, giving people in New Orleans about 2 days notice. NOT a full week as you lied about.

View attachment 701732

Let me get my sharpie out ...

 

[ReinyDays]

It's official ... Ian is rated "M" for MURDER ... I hope Flash is evacuating ... that baseball team is about in the playoffs, I wonder if they'll keep the name "Tampa Bay" after it washes away ...

 

[Woodznutz]

As it is cooler by 3.7 deg C than average, the storms would be weaker and less organized due to the lack of usable energy at the surface. It's called a thermal gradient Crick. The narrower the gradient, the less energy there is to drive the storm.

No worries. Ian will get its energy from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

[Billy_Bob]

No worries. Ian will get its energy from the Gulf of Mexico.

Well, it certainly looks like the ridge of high pressure over the central plains is protecting this one from the high-level windshear. One hurricane makes it through when five to seven are forecast... ITs called weather.

 

[jc456]

And that has what to do with the bullshit lie that "NOAA had the crosshairs on New Orleans 168 hours before impact?" and just 3 days before Katrina hit, New Orleans was about 260 miles west of where it was expected to hit and barely in the cone; with not one single computer model showing it hitting New Orleans. That would be like predicting a hurricane heading due west is going to hit Miami; folks in Daytona Beach, also about 260 miles away, would not be too overly concerned.

Any gulf coast city in the region was under cross hairs. That's what I was saying.

 

[Crick]

Well, it certainly looks like the ridge of high pressure over the central plains is protecting this one from the high-level windshear. One hurricane makes it through when five to seven are forecast... ITs called weather.

Any comment about the rate of acceleration both Ian and Fiona experienced as a result of elevated SSTs? Any comment about what could be the cause of those elevated SSTs?

 

[jc456]

Any comment about the rate of acceleration both Ian and Fiona experienced as a result of elevated SSTs? Any comment about what could be the cause of those elevated SSTs?

I would say it was the speed of the system and it's storm surge is the part to fear the most.