2016 Election Prediction Thread

[candycorn]

OK, here is my prediction, which I'm sure I'll regret later.

Rubio will be the Republican nominee. He will edge out Cruz. Bush will drop out after Super Tuesday. Trump will drop out, but I'm not sure when, probably before Bush. It will become a slugfest between Rubio and Cruz, with Rubio eventually prevailing.

Clinton will be the Democrat nominee. That will be sorted early in the nomination process.

Clinton will beat Rubio, but it will be close.

Yeah yeah. Rubio is completely unexciting and has immigration issues of his own.
Cruz is the only one I've seen establishing grass roots networks. Cruz is also out-raising Rubio.
Trump will fade as media over-exposure does him in and people are tired of his shit.
On the Dem side Sanders will get the nomination as Democrats arent stupid enough to pick Hillary. So we have an old socialist wanting to continue the same failed policies of Obama and double down on stupid vs a young exciting senator with fresh ideas that have been proven to work.
The young up and comer beats the old warhorse every time.

Just to clarify, Rabbi is picking Cruz vs. Sanders. Have fun with that later on!!!

 

[candycorn]

Bush has everything but the votes. He will fail spectacularly, generally finishing fourth or fifth on Super Tuesday. Seeing that he has no chance, he'll drop out.

In focus groups, Bush polls extremely negatively amongst Republicans, particularly over Common Core. It doesn't matter how much money he has. Republicans won't vote for him.

You're forgetting something; Bush is the "devil you know" if you're the GOP. Sometimes that may be enough.

 

[JoeB131]

They said it about McCain. They didn't say it about Romney.

Whomever "they" is.

Romney was always near the top of the polls.

Romney was running against clowns, all of whom led him in the polls for a couple weeks before the Establishment sandbagged them. the guy was never supported by more than 25% of the GOP electorate up until they realized they were stuck with him.

A few bits of cheating like keeping everyone else off the Virginia ballot or lying about who won Iowa didn't help challengers much, either.

The thing is WHEN the establishment regains control of the process, Jeb will be the only credible, vetted candidate they'll have left.

 

[Toro]

Predictwise currently has Marco Rubio in the lead for the Republican nomination, followed closely by Bush.

Predictwise derives their probabilities from both election futures markets and polling, weighting markets heavier than polls.

2016 President - Republican Nomination | PredictWise

I was surprised by this. I didn't think Rubio would be so high.

Trump is a distant third, which isn't a surprise.

Cruz is offered at 5%, with his futures price at 3 to 8 cents. That seems like a good value. I might buy the Cruz future.

 

[Synthaholic]

I think Rubio/Kasich will defeat Hillary.

#1 - Kasich is the only Republican who would worry me.

#2 - Kasich is a bit of a dick, with a huge ego.

#3 - No fucking way Kasich would play second fiddle to a guy with no track record, no experience, no accomplishments.

Why?

#4 - See #2

All politicians have bloated egos and quite a few tickets include a neophyte President with an older, more experienced VP. Obama/Biden and Kennedy/Johnson are examples.

And Kasich will help win Ohio.

Rubio is no Obama, and he's certainly no Kennedy.

Kasich is a real asshole. I'm not just talking about ego.

 

[Synthaholic]

Hope and change turned into a big pile of steaming crap...

Yeah, the stock market more than doubling, and a saved auto industry always suck.

 

[Synthaholic]

This moron doesn't have a prayer:

 

[Synthaholic]

Bloomberg has recently refused to say that he won't jump in.

Don't know how significant that is, other than the fact that he's no publicity whore looking to get his name in the papers.

I would love it, just to see Trump shut up about how much money he has.

 

[Vigilante]

And what do the Socialist DemocRATS have to offer as president?....

At last resort, they can go with an old pedophile, AND WOMAN ABUSER!

 

[Synthaholic]

If Cruz is the nominee, the Republican Party may as well just fold their tent. It will be a bigger Democratic landslide than Reagan-Mondale was. Americans recognize a weasel when they see one.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Bush is the GOP's only viable option.

The problem with Bush is he can't attract the weak democrats and democratic-leaning independents and moderates needed to win the GE, particularly if the democratic nominee uses Obama's 2012 reelection strategy.

 

[Thunderbird]

Rubio is no Obama,

Being "no Obama" is a compliment. That guy is a real incompetent.

Opinion: Obama administration confused, conflicted over Syria - CNN.com

Obama's Syria Policy Has Become a Total Disaster | The New Republic

 

[Toro]

FTR I put £20 down at 8:1 odds a few weeks back on my homie Ted Cruz to win the nomination.



I don't think he's going to win, but 8:1 seemed like a bargain.

 

[g5000]

Hillary won't run.

Oopsie!

 

[g5000]

So I predict the 2016 Republican primaries are going to be another suicide cult bloodbath, especially if Ted Cruz is in the mix.

Thank you. Thank you very muuuuch.

 

[g5000]

It won't be Clinton vs Bush----------------------I don't know who, but it won't be those two losers.

Among Democrats, Clinton is polling at 80 percent across all demographics. She certainly must be experiencing some pretty strong feelings about that.

Barring some unforeseen catastrophe, I would be very, very surprised if she did not run. And it will be extremely hard for anyone else to garner the nomination away from her.

Just like she did in 2007! How'd that work out?

It's working out just fine for her right now.

 

[oreo]

All predictions for the 2016 election go here.

I'll start.

John kasich WI'll be the next president in 2016.

I am a conservative--and registered Republican but right now it's looking Ugly for the Republican party. I don't guess I use history and math.

I am going with Hillary Clinton in a Landslide victory:

Reasons:

1. Latinos: The Reich wing of the Republican party has chased off the Latino vote, with their support of Donald Trump and their attacks on Republican candidates and immigration reform by referring to them as rino or establishment candidates. Typically the GOP nominee needs to capture at least 35 to 40% of this voting block to win the White House, and Donald Trump is now polling at a NEGATIVE 75%. Any nominee that is eventually chosen this negative is going to roll over on them. Mitt Romney lost in 2012 partially due to a lot of immigration talk, and he only captured 27% of this vote.
GOP Win Will Need More Than 40 Percent Of Latino 2016 Vote, Says Study

2. Women: Republicans lost women by double digits in 2012 by going into issues of abortion, who's going to pay for birth control pills, and what is legitimate rape which was always answered by an old white male Republican, and along with Rush Limbaugh calling a woman a slut, which brought national media attention to the party. Women went running. In fact we lost younger women by a whopping 36 points, and this secured a 2nd term for Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton has a 6 to 10 advantage going into this race as the 1st woman POTUS in 200 YEARS. Women are the majority voting block in this country at 54%, and they outvote men by 10 points. The Reich wing of the party doesn't seem to be that interested in Carly Fiorina, and there is no male candidate that is going to withstand this surge to vote for the 1st woman President.
The GOP's woman problem goes beyond Trump

3. The electorate makeup: Republicans are the minority party at 41 million, Democrats are 46 million, and Independents are the largest block, representing 40% of the electorate.

So this math & history spells a landslide win for Hillary Clinton. She will be the next POTUS Frankly the Reich wing aka Tea Party--rino/establishment groupies of the Republican party can thank themselves for this. They did in 2012, and now they've done it again for 2016. They just can't get it through their pea brains that you cannot run off large voting blocks and expect to win a National election.

 

[HenryBHough]

Should Mrs. Rodham-Clinton/Lewinsky be nominated the focus of the intelligent voter should be on who runs for VP. The old girl is ripe for another fall and head-bang. Yeah, The Reaper is busy sharpening his scythe.

 

[Toro]

Get used to saying "President Trump," turds!

 

[JoeB131]

How the election turns out will depend on a lot of factors.

HIllary has the edge, in that the Democrats have an edge in both the popular vote and the electoral college.

But a charismatic individual could potentially defeat her.

The biggest threat to Mrs. Clinton becoming the 45th President is Marco Rubio, in my opinion. He's young, dynamic, Hispanic and doesn't say the crazy things he really believes that loudly.