Do you think there will be a conservative challenge to Trump in 2020?

[rightwinger]

Trump took office with historic low approval for an incoming President. His rating have dropped ten percent since then

Buyers Remorse

 

[Boss]

Trump took office with historic low approval for an incoming President. His rating have dropped ten percent since then

Buyers Remorse

Well I can certainly say this... Declaring war on the Freedom Caucus ain't gonna help his numbers. If he keeps listening to RinseRepeatus, he's going to tank real fast. Trump was supposed to go "Drain the Swamp" but he went up there and climbed in bed with the Establishment GOP and surrounded himself with Goldman-Sachs guys and now he's talking about "working with the Democrats" like that's fucking going to happen.

So yeah... he can real easily break Truman's record low of 22%.

 

[rightwinger]

Trump took office with historic low approval for an incoming President. His rating have dropped ten percent since then

Buyers Remorse

Well I can certainly say this... Declaring war on the Freedom Caucus ain't gonna help his numbers. If he keeps listening to RinseRepeatus, he's going to tank real fast. Trump was supposed to go "Drain the Swamp" but he went up there and climbed in bed with the Establishment GOP and surrounded himself with Goldman-Sachs guys and now he's talking about "working with the Democrats" like that's fucking going to happen.

So yeah... he can real easily break Truman's record low of 22%.

Trump seems incapable of building a coalition...especially in his own party

2020 means Trump doesn't get to run on inflated empty promises....he has to run on his record

 

[Boss]

Trump seems incapable of building a coalition...especially in his own party

2020 means Trump doesn't get to run on inflated empty promises....he has to run on his record

You are right but the Democrats will have to put up a formidable candidate.

 

[Flopper]

Election polling is used to point to a winner. Presidential approval ratings are used to measure public support. Using presidential approval ratings to compare support for the president as he goes through his term in office is statistically a valid means of measuring changes in support for the president. The change in approval rating is important. The actual value of the rating is not. Comparing support for different presidents is not really valid. Even if the same polling service is used the make up the polled population will be different.

Right... So IF someone had called me last week and asked if I approved of Trump's policies in the middle of the atrocious health care debacle, I would have said NO... I DON'T APPROVE! Does that mean I wouldn't vote for him? Does that mean I am not supporting him anymore? Does that mean "buyers remorse"? NO! Since only 17% of the country agreed with that disastrous turd sandwich, it's pretty fucking awesome he came out of that with 35% approval!

But Libtards see approval ratings completely different... they see Trump's approval at 35% and think that MUST mean that 65% of Americans want his head on a pike and all his offspring killed! And they parade around here all giddy and excited like approval ratings mean any goddamn thing at all at this point. They really DON'T!

Nonsense. Presidential approval ratings mean exactly that, the percent of people that approve of his job performance at that point in time. Two weeks from now it may be higher or lower. The use of presidential approval ratings is to determine how presidential support varies with different events. It helps the two sides create strategy.

Obviously, Trump's poor performance negotiating with House members on the healthcare bill, then claiming it would pass followed by failure, then claiming he's done with healthcare and the country will have live with Obamacare and he was ready to move on followed by an announcement that he was working on a new healthcare bill, certainly does not inspire confidence.

Well Flopper, they don't have a fucking crystal ball. They STILL have to make phone calls and poll people. That's how that is done just like ANY poll. So the idea that presidential approval polls are somehow more accurate than election polls is ridiculous. They are subject to error just like any other poll.

And again... since you seem to be having trouble... If they called Tea Party Conservatives last week and asked them how Trump was doing in the midst of "Refurb and Rename" (aka: AHCA)... it's likely they didn't give Trump very high marks. Since only 17% of the people liked that piece of shit bill, someone was mighty generous to Trump for him to come out at 35%.

But really... what the fuck difference does it make now? We're not having an election anytime soon are we? Besides idiot libtards, who really gives a shit about his damn approval ratings right now?

As along the polling group is representative of the population, Presidential job performance polls and election polls are very accurate usually within 3% in determining the opinion of the population. The error is not in polling data but rather how that data is used.

Using polls to determine opinions is accurate but using polls to determine the actions of people based on those opinions is not because there are many factors other than just opinion. The best use of polls is determine opinion, not predicting actions. So if you want to know whether the actions of a president or a candidate between two points in time is being received positively or negatively, polls are the way to do that.

 

[Cecilie1200]

Or will they wait for 2024 when Trump's terms are over to run?

I think it will depend on how Trump's first term in office goes.

If he keeps up with the antagonistic blame game and goes running off to suck up to the Democrats, then yeah, I would expect a conservative challenger.

 

[Cecilie1200]

if he is in any trouble, I would wish for a Rubio/Cruz ticket. that way, Republicans will stay in Power till at least in the year 2525.

I get the feeling Cruz isn't going to run again. I think he is content to remain in the Senate. Look out for Rand Paul.

Can't imagine why you would get that feeling. I definitely expect to see him run again, although I suspect he would be reluctant to challenge a Republican incumbent without serious amounts of motivation.

 

[Cecilie1200]

I can think of a few times a president got challenged by their party for second term. They beat them but lost in November.
Bush carter and ford

Which is why I think it depends on how his first term goes. Republicans are well-aware of the risks involved in splitting their efforts, and they are unlikely to do unless they really think they have no other choice.

 

[Cecilie1200]

Hopefully someone that believes a womens place is at home and a man should be the bread winner.

Why, you feeling emasculated by your inability to be superior to women unless they forfeit the competition entirely?

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

if he is in any trouble, I would wish for a Rubio/Cruz ticket. that way, Republicans will stay in Power till at least in the year 2525.

I get the feeling Cruz isn't going to run again. I think he is content to remain in the Senate. Look out for Rand Paul.

Rand Paul doesn't stand the chance of a fart in a hurricane.

Kentucky Derpy

The gutterball from Bowling Green

 

[Cecilie1200]

Republicans sense wounded prey

With 35% approval, they are chomping at the bit to run against him. Problem is ...will they run 17 candidates against him like last time and allow him to pick them off one at a time?

There won't be 17 candidates.

I figure Evan McMullin will probably run. Rand Paul might run. Cruz and Rubio are doubtful but possible, and that's about it. No one else is going to bother trying to primary a sitting president.

Most of what I've said is dependent on circumstances. I don't know what's going to happen the next 3 years. If the economy is roaring and jobs keep coming back, and there isn't some [REAL] scandal, he may face no primary opposition at all.

But here's the question.... WHO is he going to run against on the Democrat side?

Fauxcahantas? Hillary again? Maxine Waters? I mean... the bench is not deep.

I think another question that needs to be addressed is this: If another candidate beat Trump in the primary after his first term, would the Trumpettes support the new candidate the way they keep insisting we must support Trump in everything?

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Kasich. Soros' white Obama.

Obama is White and grew up more privileged than most people.....a 1 percenter elitist.

Bankenstein Barbie

Wasn't his autobiography titled Mama Married a Mau Mau?

 

[Flopper]

I can think of a few times a president got challenged by their party for second term. They beat them but lost in November.
Bush carter and ford

Which is why I think it depends on how his first term goes. Republicans are well-aware of the risks involved in splitting their efforts, and they are unlikely to do unless they really think they have no other choice.

Since the president has not even completed a hundred days in office, it's just a bit too soon to say whether he will run again much less judging republican opposition.

 

[Cecilie1200]

we can all agree that if Trump sees his chances slim in 2019, he may go and let Pence Run. I will be happy with any combination of Pence/Rubio/Cuz. and like I mentioned, If its Rubio.....The Dems may as well all retire.

We can all agree on that? WHY can we all agree on that? What possible indication has Trump EVER given that he's capable of putting the good of anyone else ahead of his own personal desires?

 

[Cecilie1200]

Trump took office with historic low approval for an incoming President. His rating have dropped ten percent since then

Buyers Remorse

Well I can certainly say this... Declaring war on the Freedom Caucus ain't gonna help his numbers. If he keeps listening to RinseRepeatus, he's going to tank real fast. Trump was supposed to go "Drain the Swamp" but he went up there and climbed in bed with the Establishment GOP and surrounded himself with Goldman-Sachs guys and now he's talking about "working with the Democrats" like that's fucking going to happen.

So yeah... he can real easily break Truman's record low of 22%.

What I don't understand is why anyone is surprised that the first thing Trump did in office was to cozy up to the establishment types. I know I fully expected it.

What surprises me is how few of his fans seem to have noticed it.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Don't take this as a pro, nor ant-Trump question: I'm wondering why Trump would even want to run again?

I still see Trump as a non-politician businessman who just wants to get a job done and move on.

The Greatest Show on Earth

You could be just as wrong if you said that about "The Apprentice." Trump is enjoying every minute of this. Snowflakes are just lint to him.

 

[Boss]

Election polling is used to point to a winner. Presidential approval ratings are used to measure public support. Using presidential approval ratings to compare support for the president as he goes through his term in office is statistically a valid means of measuring changes in support for the president. The change in approval rating is important. The actual value of the rating is not. Comparing support for different presidents is not really valid. Even if the same polling service is used the make up the polled population will be different.

Right... So IF someone had called me last week and asked if I approved of Trump's policies in the middle of the atrocious health care debacle, I would have said NO... I DON'T APPROVE! Does that mean I wouldn't vote for him? Does that mean I am not supporting him anymore? Does that mean "buyers remorse"? NO! Since only 17% of the country agreed with that disastrous turd sandwich, it's pretty fucking awesome he came out of that with 35% approval!

But Libtards see approval ratings completely different... they see Trump's approval at 35% and think that MUST mean that 65% of Americans want his head on a pike and all his offspring killed! And they parade around here all giddy and excited like approval ratings mean any goddamn thing at all at this point. They really DON'T!

Nonsense. Presidential approval ratings mean exactly that, the percent of people that approve of his job performance at that point in time. Two weeks from now it may be higher or lower. The use of presidential approval ratings is to determine how presidential support varies with different events. It helps the two sides create strategy.

Obviously, Trump's poor performance negotiating with House members on the healthcare bill, then claiming it would pass followed by failure, then claiming he's done with healthcare and the country will have live with Obamacare and he was ready to move on followed by an announcement that he was working on a new healthcare bill, certainly does not inspire confidence.

Well Flopper, they don't have a fucking crystal ball. They STILL have to make phone calls and poll people. That's how that is done just like ANY poll. So the idea that presidential approval polls are somehow more accurate than election polls is ridiculous. They are subject to error just like any other poll.

And again... since you seem to be having trouble... If they called Tea Party Conservatives last week and asked them how Trump was doing in the midst of "Refurb and Rename" (aka: AHCA)... it's likely they didn't give Trump very high marks. Since only 17% of the people liked that piece of shit bill, someone was mighty generous to Trump for him to come out at 35%.

But really... what the fuck difference does it make now? We're not having an election anytime soon are we? Besides idiot libtards, who really gives a shit about his damn approval ratings right now?

As along the polling group is representative of the population, Presidential job performance polls and election polls are very accurate usually within 3% in determining the opinion of the population. The error is not in polling data but rather how that data is used.

Using polls to determine opinions is accurate but using polls to determine the actions of people based on those opinions is not because there are many factors other than just opinion. The best use of polls is determine opinion, not predicting actions. So if you want to know whether the actions of a president or a candidate between two points in time is being received positively or negatively, polls are the way to do that.

Look... Talking down to me like I am some kind of child who doesn't understand how polls work is not making my point any less valid. There has always been this weird thing with Trump and the polls. Normally, they are fairly accurate, with Trump you just can't tell. There have been articles written about the befuddlement of pollsters over this and they think it's because Trump's support base simply doesn't participate in polls or they are intentionally dishonest when they do. I'm not professing to know why, I am simply repeating what I've read. We all know what polls said before the election. He was 10 pts. down and was given virtually no chance to win the election. Obviously something happened, right?

I have no way of knowing what Trump's future holds but beware of hanging all your hopes on polling data four years out from an election, especially when it comes to Trump!

 

[Boss]

Trump took office with historic low approval for an incoming President. His rating have dropped ten percent since then

Buyers Remorse

Well I can certainly say this... Declaring war on the Freedom Caucus ain't gonna help his numbers. If he keeps listening to RinseRepeatus, he's going to tank real fast. Trump was supposed to go "Drain the Swamp" but he went up there and climbed in bed with the Establishment GOP and surrounded himself with Goldman-Sachs guys and now he's talking about "working with the Democrats" like that's fucking going to happen.

So yeah... he can real easily break Truman's record low of 22%.

What I don't understand is why anyone is surprised that the first thing Trump did in office was to cozy up to the establishment types. I know I fully expected it.

What surprises me is how few of his fans seem to have noticed it.

Oh, I expected it too. I said so when he was bashing on Ted Cruz with the "Lyin' Ted" stuff. I always believed he planned to govern as a moderate centrist and he knew his biggest opposition on the right was going to be the conservative wing. You'll recall he said he didn't care if Republicans lost the Senate because he could work with the Democrats then.

I fully believe if the Democrats had run anyone besides Hillary, Trump would've lost.

 

[Boss]

if he is in any trouble, I would wish for a Rubio/Cruz ticket. that way, Republicans will stay in Power till at least in the year 2525.

I get the feeling Cruz isn't going to run again. I think he is content to remain in the Senate. Look out for Rand Paul.

Can't imagine why you would get that feeling. I definitely expect to see him run again, although I suspect he would be reluctant to challenge a Republican incumbent without serious amounts of motivation.

I can't explain it, I just feel like he won't run in 2020.

 

[Boss]

Republicans sense wounded prey

With 35% approval, they are chomping at the bit to run against him. Problem is ...will they run 17 candidates against him like last time and allow him to pick them off one at a time?

There won't be 17 candidates.

I figure Evan McMullin will probably run. Rand Paul might run. Cruz and Rubio are doubtful but possible, and that's about it. No one else is going to bother trying to primary a sitting president.

Most of what I've said is dependent on circumstances. I don't know what's going to happen the next 3 years. If the economy is roaring and jobs keep coming back, and there isn't some [REAL] scandal, he may face no primary opposition at all.

But here's the question.... WHO is he going to run against on the Democrat side?

Fauxcahantas? Hillary again? Maxine Waters? I mean... the bench is not deep.

I think another question that needs to be addressed is this: If another candidate beat Trump in the primary after his first term, would the Trumpettes support the new candidate the way they keep insisting we must support Trump in everything?

Again, I have looked for an example in presidential history and can't find one... where an incumbent president was defeated in primary and that party won in November.