How Trump has broken the polls

[Missourian]

Agree to an extent.

The media is overtly partisan. Why would the pollsters be any different?

They are both more interested in shaping opinion than disseminating facts.

 

[Pogo]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Bet you are not big on science or technology either. If you are in a plane and that altimeter is unwinding while you are having a sinking feeling, you should probably pay no attention to the pilot if he whole plan is to cuss the gauge maker, and throw a hissy fit.

If polls were science...Hillary would be President.

So much for that idea.

Apparently they are, since she beat him by three million votes.

Liar, she lost and she lost huge Trump whooped her ass winning 30 states and over 300 EC votes.

Go ahead, check the numbers. Check any of my numbers. On anything. I get them straight before I post.

She lost the election she didn't beat him, just admit you were lying. I may as well slap you around further with facts, Hillary won by 4 million more votes in the single state of California. Trump whooped her ass by 1 million votes in the other 49 states. There now you have some numbers to chew on.

Unfortunately for your fantasy we don't have elections via cherrypicking. I'm sure cherries are delicious and all but your logic here is full of fruit flies.

The fact remains, polling said Clinton would draw more fruit flies votes, and she did, although by the time the date was nearing it was too close to call, due to the dysfunction of the Electrical College.

What was dysfunctional about it?

See my above reference to the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Cackalackee, Utah, and we could add AridZona and we could also add Nevada, Minnesota and Virginia. In every one of those states NOBODY won as much as 50% of that state's vote yet they all (some by force of unConstitutional state law) sent 100% of their vote to a single candidate. A candidate that that state quantifiably did not choose.

That dysfunction.

That's HALF the total needed to win the EC right there.

 

[Pogo]

Unfortunately for your fantasy we don't have elections via cherrypicking. I'm sure cherries are delicious and all but your logic here is full of fruit flies.

The fact remains, polling said Clinton would draw more fruit flies votes, and she did, although by the time the date was nearing it was too close to call, due to the dysfunction of the Electrical College. But you can't poll the EC.

Oh God the irony meter just broke. You said, "she beat him by three million votes" which is at best cherry picking and more akin to an outright lie. She didn't beat him at anything. No such popular vote election took place. No popular vote campaign strategy. No popular vote campaign ads. Nobody knows who may have won a popular vote election had one taken place.

Excellent strawman collection. eBay?

I didn't say there was any particular kind of campaign, now did I.

 

[White 6]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Bet you are not big on science or technology either. If you are in a plane and that altimeter is unwinding while you are having a sinking feeling, you should probably pay no attention to the pilot if he whole plan is to cuss the gauge maker, and throw a hissy fit.

If polls were science...Hillary would be President.

So much for that idea.

Apparently they are, since she beat him by three million votes.

Liar, she lost and she lost huge Trump whooped her ass winning 30 states and over 300 EC votes.

Go ahead, check the numbers. Check any of my numbers. On anything. I get them straight before I post.

She lost the election she didn't beat him, just admit you were lying. I may as well slap you around further with facts, Hillary won by 4 million more votes in the single state of California. Trump whooped her ass by 1 million votes in the other 49 states. There now you have some numbers to chew on.

538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
Turnout	55.7%[1] 0.8 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 304[a] 227[a] States carried 30 + ME-02 20 + DC Popular vote 62,984,828 65,853,514 Percentage 46.1% 48.2%

Agree to an extent. The media is overtly partisan. Why would the pollsters be any different? They are both more interested in shaping opinion than disseminating facts. You mean he cannot even hire internal pollster to make it come out his way?

 

[two_iron]

Agree to an extent.

The media is overtly partisan. Why would the pollsters be any different?

They are both more interested in shaping opinion than disseminating facts.

Mourning Schmo's russian c*nt: ...."control exactly what people think.... and that is our job"

 

[Missourian]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Polls certainly can be rigged if that's the objective, but any legitimate poll publishes its methodology, which exposes that. So when you see a poll question going "would you be less likely to vote for John McCain if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?", you know that particular poll is bullshit. That's why you vet the poll just like you'd vet a headline, to make sure the content supports the claim.

Pollees lying, on the other hand, is impossible. That would require said pollees to be organized, and to KNOW IN ADVANCE that they were going to be polled, and to mutually agree on what they would say. No legitimate poll could get there because they use random samples. This is the stuff of tinfoil fantasies.

Speaking of said fantasies and the wishful thinking of the "nobody with an ounce of sense" malarkey, Rump has consistently, more consistently than any POTUS in polling memory, flown well below the 50% mark in approval throughout his entire tenure. He's over 50% DISapproval right now, which is where he's been since inauguration, even with a national crisis going on. That's not exactly an indicator of invincibility, just the opposite. Couple that with the fact that he also was unable to pull that 50% mark in the infamous trio of Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania -- all three of them -- and that indicator gets softer than an ice cream cone your kid left on the dashboard on a sunny day. Even Utah .... Rump could not pull 50% in frickin' Utah, with an R after his name. Rumpbots have reason to be concerned. Bigly reason.

Biden's the wrong guy. Trump is vulnerable...but not from Biden.

All the folks I actually worried about are long gone. Biden wasn't one of them...nor was Bernie.

Old white guy with senility issues and a long track record to dredge up...that's a losing hand.

Then it is, within this severely limited pairing, two losing hands. Although I'd characterize one of them as an "old orange guy" but other than that a direct match.

As I keep pointing out to armchair pundits here, nobody's nominated by any party yet, and they can and will nominate whoever they want, so all of this pairing fantasy remains premature.

I agree that Biden is weak sauce, that's obvious. But I'm also saying it won't take much.

In theory they can nominate whomever...but in practice it's Biden or Bernie...neither of whom can win, IMO.

If Biden abducates and the DNC passes over Bernie the Bernie supporters are all the way out...and the Dems need them to have the remotest chance of winning. With Biden they'll keep some...without Biden they'll have much less.

Better 60% of a loaf than no loaf at all.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Bet you are not big on science or technology either. If you are in a plane and that altimeter is unwinding while you are having a sinking feeling, you should probably pay no attention to the pilot if he whole plan is to cuss the gauge maker, and throw a hissy fit.

If polls were science...Hillary would be President.

So much for that idea.

Apparently they are, since she beat him by three million votes.

Liar, she lost and she lost huge Trump whooped her ass winning 30 states and over 300 EC votes.

Go ahead, check the numbers. Check any of my numbers. On anything. I get them straight before I post.

She lost the election she didn't beat him, just admit you were lying. I may as well slap you around further with facts, Hillary won by 4 million more votes in the single state of California. Trump whooped her ass by 1 million votes in the other 49 states. There now you have some numbers to chew on.

Unfortunately for your fantasy we don't have elections via cherrypicking. I'm sure cherries are delicious and all but your logic here is full of fruit flies.

The fact remains, polling said Clinton would draw more fruit flies votes, and she did, although by the time the date was nearing it was too close to call, due to the dysfunction of the Electrical College.

What was dysfunctional about it?

See my above reference to the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Cackalackee, Utah, and we could add AridZona and we could also add Nevada, Minnesota and Virginia. In every one of those states NOBODY won as much as 50% of that state's vote yet they all (some by force of unConstitutional state law) sent 100% of their vote to a single candidate. A candidate that that state quantifiably did not choose.

That dysfunction.

Eh?

Votes choose electors. Majority wins. 50% is not required.

 

[Pogo]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Polls certainly can be rigged if that's the objective, but any legitimate poll publishes its methodology, which exposes that. So when you see a poll question going "would you be less likely to vote for John McCain if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?", you know that particular poll is bullshit. That's why you vet the poll just like you'd vet a headline, to make sure the content supports the claim.

Pollees lying, on the other hand, is impossible. That would require said pollees to be organized, and to KNOW IN ADVANCE that they were going to be polled, and to mutually agree on what they would say. No legitimate poll could get there because they use random samples. This is the stuff of tinfoil fantasies.

Speaking of said fantasies and the wishful thinking of the "nobody with an ounce of sense" malarkey, Rump has consistently, more consistently than any POTUS in polling memory, flown well below the 50% mark in approval throughout his entire tenure. He's over 50% DISapproval right now, which is where he's been since inauguration, even with a national crisis going on. That's not exactly an indicator of invincibility, just the opposite. Couple that with the fact that he also was unable to pull that 50% mark in the infamous trio of Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania -- all three of them -- and that indicator gets softer than an ice cream cone your kid left on the dashboard on a sunny day. Even Utah .... Rump could not pull 50% in frickin' Utah, with an R after his name. Rumpbots have reason to be concerned. Bigly reason.

Biden's the wrong guy. Trump is vulnerable...but not from Biden.

All the folks I actually worried about are long gone. Biden wasn't one of them...nor was Bernie.

Old white guy with senility issues and a long track record to dredge up...that's a losing hand.

Then it is, within this severely limited pairing, two losing hands. Although I'd characterize one of them as an "old orange guy" but other than that a direct match.

As I keep pointing out to armchair pundits here, nobody's nominated by any party yet, and they can and will nominate whoever they want, so all of this pairing fantasy remains premature.

I agree that Biden is weak sauce, that's obvious. But I'm also saying it won't take much.

In theory they can nominate whomever...but in practice it's Biden or Bernie...neither of whom can win, IMO.

If Biden abducates and the DNC passes over Bernie the Bernie supporters are all the way out...and the Dems need them to have the remotest chance of winning. With Biden they'll keep some...without Biden they'll have much less.

Better 60% of a loaf than no loaf at all.

NO, in practice they can nominate whoever, period.

Pop quiz -- who was the Democratic candidate in 1872? Hint: it was a Republican.

Pop quiz 2 -- who won the Republican primaries in 1912? Hint: he didn't get nominated (but he did beat the Repub nominee running as a third party)

 

[Pogo]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Bet you are not big on science or technology either. If you are in a plane and that altimeter is unwinding while you are having a sinking feeling, you should probably pay no attention to the pilot if he whole plan is to cuss the gauge maker, and throw a hissy fit.

If polls were science...Hillary would be President.

So much for that idea.

Apparently they are, since she beat him by three million votes.

Liar, she lost and she lost huge Trump whooped her ass winning 30 states and over 300 EC votes.

Go ahead, check the numbers. Check any of my numbers. On anything. I get them straight before I post.

She lost the election she didn't beat him, just admit you were lying. I may as well slap you around further with facts, Hillary won by 4 million more votes in the single state of California. Trump whooped her ass by 1 million votes in the other 49 states. There now you have some numbers to chew on.

Unfortunately for your fantasy we don't have elections via cherrypicking. I'm sure cherries are delicious and all but your logic here is full of fruit flies.

The fact remains, polling said Clinton would draw more fruit flies votes, and she did, although by the time the date was nearing it was too close to call, due to the dysfunction of the Electrical College.

What was dysfunctional about it?

See my above reference to the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Cackalackee, Utah, and we could add AridZona and we could also add Nevada, Minnesota and Virginia. In every one of those states NOBODY won as much as 50% of that state's vote yet they all (some by force of unConstitutional state law) sent 100% of their vote to a single candidate. A candidate that that state quantifiably did not choose.

That dysfunction.

That's HALF the total needed to win the EC right there.

Eh?

Votes choose electors. Majority wins. 50% is not required.

I think you'll find that the definition of majority REQUIRES 50% plus one.
Go ahead, check me. I'll wait.

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Bet you are not big on science or technology either. If you are in a plane and that altimeter is unwinding while you are having a sinking feeling, you should probably pay no attention to the pilot if he whole plan is to cuss the gauge maker, and throw a hissy fit.

If polls were science...Hillary would be President.

So much for that idea.

Apparently they are, since she beat him by three million votes.

Liar, she lost and she lost huge Trump whooped her ass winning 30 states and over 300 EC votes.

Go ahead, check the numbers. Check any of my numbers. On anything. I get them straight before I post.

She lost the election she didn't beat him, just admit you were lying. I may as well slap you around further with facts, Hillary won by 4 million more votes in the single state of California. Trump whooped her ass by 1 million votes in the other 49 states. There now you have some numbers to chew on.

Unfortunately for your fantasy we don't have elections via cherrypicking. I'm sure cherries are delicious and all but your logic here is full of fruit flies.

The fact remains, polling said Clinton would draw more fruit flies votes, and she did, although by the time the date was nearing it was too close to call, due to the dysfunction of the Electrical College.

What was dysfunctional about it?

See my above reference to the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Cackalackee, Utah, and we could add AridZona and we could also add Nevada, Minnesota and Virginia. In every one of those states NOBODY won as much as 50% of that state's vote yet they all (some by force of unConstitutional state law) sent 100% of their vote to a single candidate. A candidate that that state quantifiably did not choose.

That dysfunction.

That's HALF the total needed to win the EC right there.

Eh?

Votes choose electors. Majority wins. 50% is not required.

I think you'll find that the definition of majority REQUIRES 50% plus one.
Go ahead, check me. I'll wait.

Not with more than two candidates.

 

[LoneLaugher]

At this point, anyone claiming that the 2016 polls were way off is just a liar. The facts are well established on that point. The polling was accurate.

And they are similarly accurate now.

FOX News polls are among the most reliable. RCP averages are very accurate.

Ya fucking moron liars.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Bet you are not big on science or technology either. If you are in a plane and that altimeter is unwinding while you are having a sinking feeling, you should probably pay no attention to the pilot if he whole plan is to cuss the gauge maker, and throw a hissy fit.

If polls were science...Hillary would be President.

So much for that idea.

Apparently they are, since she beat him by three million votes.

Liar, she lost and she lost huge Trump whooped her ass winning 30 states and over 300 EC votes.

Obama got 365 and 332. Did he win HUUUGE?

 

[Missourian]

NO, in practice they can nominate whoever, period.

Sure...they COULD do something ridiculously stupid...but they won't.


The Bernie supporters already know the fix it's in...pass Bernie over and see what happens.

I suspect it will be the end off the Democrat party as we know it.

Prominent Bernie Sanders supporters are calling on Joe Biden to drop out of the 2020 race over Tara Reade's sexual assault allegation

"Out of respect for survivors and for the good of the country, he should withdraw from the race," Sanders' 2020 national organizing director tweeted.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[LoneLaugher]

Agree to an extent.

The media is overtly partisan. Why would the pollsters be any different?

They are both more interested in shaping opinion than disseminating facts.

Why do you suppose the media leans left in general? Got an explanation?

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

Agree to an extent.

The media is overtly partisan. Why would the pollsters be any different?

They are both more interested in shaping opinion than disseminating facts.

Why do you suppose the media leans left in general? Got an explanation?

Because the majority working in media are Leftists.

 

[Missourian]

Why do you suppose the media leans left in general? Got an explanation?

I suspect it is the urban-centric nature of media in general.

New York, Washington and Atlanta...very blue.

That's just supposition. It could also be that left-leaning individuals are drawn to journalism.

But I don't think there is any denying the the anti-republican bias is no longer covert. The ABC panel on election night 2016 looked like someome shot their dogs.

I lol'd.

 

[WelfareQueen]

The polls aren't "broken". They are intentionally designed to tell lies.

That said, in spite of their polls, I believe Trump will break the back of the Democrat Party on November 3rd.

How Trump has broken the polls

I recently read a great article on Larry Sabato's web site. Every Presidential election since 2000 has underestimated the actual Republican vote accept one. That was 2012. It still said Obama would win but it was off by a couple of points. Otherwise, they have been dead wrong and generally heavily biased against Republicans.

Bottom line: The polls lie and are almost always biased against the GOP.

 

[Missourian]

At this point, anyone claiming that the 2016 polls were way off is just a liar. The facts are well established on that point. The polling was accurate.

And they are similarly accurate now.

FOX News polls are among the most reliable. RCP averages are very accurate.

Ya fucking moron liars.

LMGTFY

For all those people who find it more convenient to bother you with their question rather than search it for themselves.

lmgtfy.com

You are misinformed...

A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump (Published 2017)

Pollsters are leaning toward optimistic explanations that their problems of last year can be fixed.

www.google.com

 

[WelfareQueen]

Polls are rigged to manipulate the masses...but no one is falling for it anymore. The poll bandwagon effect is dead. Nobody with a ounce of common sense believes for a second that Biden can beat Trump. That leaves two alternatives. The pollees are lying or the pollers are. My money is on the pollers.

Bet you are not big on science or technology either. If you are in a plane and that altimeter is unwinding while you are having a sinking feeling, you should probably pay no attention to the pilot if he whole plan is to cuss the gauge maker, and throw a hissy fit.

If polls were science...Hillary would be President.

So much for that idea.

Apparently they are, since she beat him by three million votes.

Liar, she lost and she lost huge Trump whooped her ass winning 30 states and over 300 EC votes.

Go ahead, check the numbers. Check any of my numbers. On anything. I get them straight before I post.

She lost the election she didn't beat him, just admit you were lying. I may as well slap you around further with facts, Hillary won by 4 million more votes in the single state of California. Trump whooped her ass by 1 million votes in the other 49 states. There now you have some numbers to chew on.

538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
Turnout	55.7%[1] 0.8 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 304[a] 227[a] States carried 30 + ME-02 20 + DC Popular vote 62,984,828 65,853,514 Percentage 46.1% 48.2%

Agree to an extent. The media is overtly partisan. Why would the pollsters be any different? They are both more interested in shaping opinion than disseminating facts. You mean he cannot even hire internal pollster to make it come out his way?

Except the battleground polling was terrible. Nobody gives a shit about polling in NYC or LA. Hillary was supposed the win Pennsylvania by 8 points. WTF happened. It was off in every battleground state and was all biased for Hillary.

YouGov’s final pre-election polls in Battleground states: Trump still coming up short | YouGov

Despite some gains, Trump is still short in key states

today.yougov.com

 

[BluesLegend]

Unfortunately for your fantasy we don't have elections via cherrypicking. I'm sure cherries are delicious and all but your logic here is full of fruit flies.

The fact remains, polling said Clinton would draw more fruit flies votes, and she did, although by the time the date was nearing it was too close to call, due to the dysfunction of the Electrical College. But you can't poll the EC.

Oh God the irony meter just broke. You said, "she beat him by three million votes" which is at best cherry picking and more akin to an outright lie. She didn't beat him at anything. No such popular vote election took place. No popular vote campaign strategy. No popular vote campaign ads. Nobody knows who may have won a popular vote election had one taken place.

Excellent strawman collection. eBay?

I didn't say there was any particular kind of campaign, now did I.

You were patently DISHONEST its not up for debate it's right there in your own words.