Iowa Caucus Prediction Thread

[Remodeling Maidiac]

It will be close on both sides but if history is a guide it also is a rather meaningless process.

Ps. Someone buy them some voting booths & get them out of their barns. Seriously, what a stupid way to elect someone. Make it as time consuming as possible so people lose interest. Just dumb

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I caught it. I just think when all the votes are counted and compared Trump will beat the entire field easy.

The entire Republican field yes....thats the only thing you can measure unless I'm missing something?

I believe that DarkFury is trying to compare the Democratic caucus results to the Republican caucus results. But you are correct in saying that comparing them is entirely irrelevant, since each Party runs their caucus differently.

O'Malley at the caucas needs at least 15 people in the room to support him to even get listed otherwise Sanders and Clinton supporters get to vie for them. So for every cacus that O'Mally is NOT listed he did NOT garner 15 people.

Simple really.

Nope, that's not how it works.

Here's a simple chart that might help you out:

Iowa Caucus

From YOUR link...
"Step 3 - These caucus meetings will determine the popularity of each candidate and will decide which candidates are to be retained and which are to be eliminated. Only candidates receiving 15% support from the individuals in the meeting will be eligible for the candidacy. Individuals supporting a candidate who received less than 15% support will be asked to join one of the other groups."

Is that not what I JUST said about O'Malley?

No, it's not what you said. You said that O'Malley need 15 people in each caucus, or he won't be listed at that caucus.

In reality, he needs 15% of caucusers, statewide - and if he doesn't get that, he won't be listed in any caucuses.

 

[DarkFury]

The entire Republican field yes....thats the only thing you can measure unless I'm missing something?

I believe that DarkFury is trying to compare the Democratic caucus results to the Republican caucus results. But you are correct in saying that comparing them is entirely irrelevant, since each Party runs their caucus differently.

O'Malley at the caucas needs at least 15 people in the room to support him to even get listed otherwise Sanders and Clinton supporters get to vie for them. So for every cacus that O'Mally is NOT listed he did NOT garner 15 people.

Simple really.

Nope, that's not how it works.

Here's a simple chart that might help you out:

Iowa Caucus

From YOUR link...
"Step 3 - These caucus meetings will determine the popularity of each candidate and will decide which candidates are to be retained and which are to be eliminated. Only candidates receiving 15% support from the individuals in the meeting will be eligible for the candidacy. Individuals supporting a candidate who received less than 15% support will be asked to join one of the other groups."

Is that not what I JUST said about O'Malley?

No, it's not what you said. You said that O'Malley need 15 people in each caucus, or he won't be listed at that caucus.

In reality, he needs 15% of caucusers, statewide - and if he doesn't get that, he won't be listed in any caucuses.

If they don't get 15% AT the meeting they get NOTHING. YOUR link AGAIN....

"Step 3 - These caucus meetings will determine the popularity of each candidate and will decide which candidates are to be retained and which are to be eliminated. Only candidates receiving 15% support from the individuals in the meeting will be eligible for the candidacy. Individuals supporting a candidate who received less than 15% support will be asked to join one of the other groups. "

"IN THE MEETING" IN as in AT. They don't bus those idiots to the next town. 15% IN the meeting or you get squat.

 

[candycorn]

1 cruz
2 trump


hillary

Cruz
Clinton

 

[percysunshine]

Lets hear your predictions for tonite. I'll start off.

• Trump wins in a landslide.
• Marco Rubio surprises everyone with a 2nd place finish.
• Cruz cruises to a 3rd place finish.
• Hillary will squeeze out a win over Bernie Sanders.

I predict a blizzard hits Iowa and all presidential candidates freeze to death on the runway at the Davenport airport....but I could be wrong...

 

[ScienceRocks]

Trump 29%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 22%

I doubt the idiot can beat the populist that wants to make America great or the establishment.

 

[percysunshine]

Iowa is toast;

Intellicast - Weather Active Map

 

[Rocko]

Trump being in favor on ethanol gives him the win over Cruz

Sanders over Hildebeast

 

[tinydancer]

Ok my dog is from Iowa. Raven is from the best black and tan coon hound breeder there. She has chosen hey come on tomorrow we're going to have Groundhog Day its not so crazy

Raven is cripe almighty a tie between Cruz and Trump.

Which is interesting because when I am doing dishes and she hears the Donald on the radio she starts to croon. As only a hound dog can. Cruz may have a chance.

 

[Wroberson]

Fioretti or whomever would be sweet.

I don't care but I do. I want X and Y to win, but I don't.

I'm not voting for the Canadian either.

Donny just isn't tactful enough for me to trust him.
I just know we're going to get burned by this guy in some way.
He already skipped a debate over words.
He'll likely miss a vote on something important to me as well.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Rubio 33 Cruz 32 The Donald 31 Huma 000.42%

 

[NoTeaPartyPleez]

i just hate ted cruz. .

where is jeb bush? i like jeb bush
nobody dont talk about him.

Nobody talks about him for good reason.

Why don't you research the history of the Bush family.

Starting with Jeb's Grandfather that helped fund the Adolf and the Nazi's, mmmmkay?

Jeb is paying for his brother's abysmal approval rating upon leaving office. His mother was right the first time in 2014 when she said he shouldn't run.

Bush's Final Approval Rating: 22 Percent
Bush's Final Approval Rating: 22 Percent

 

[Jackson]

Overflow crowds in Iowa per CNN

Long lines still outside at caucus sites... GOP

Doors are supposed to be closing. Standing room only. May keep doors open longer

Democrat: Long Line.. 100 people over what they expected. Astonishing number of people..New people to caucuses Uncommitted rooms empty.

 

[Jackson]

Early Leaders...Bernie and Hillary close
...Trump, Cruz, Rubio

Have you come to a caucus before? 43% NO

Real numbers soon...

 

[Jackson]

Good news for Trump..New Caucus goers..unusually high numbers

Sanders Camp... First time voters... high crowded rooms unsure what that means

 

[Rexx Taylor]

i wonder how Dan Quayle will do tonite

 

[Jackson]

Early Numbers...indicate good for Trump...but remember Dewey

 

[Jackson]

Voting Now Underway Youth rebellion... Democrat...Trump visiting Caucus site...Hillary in Hotel...Really exciting People are energetiic

 

[skye]

Voting Now Underway Youth rebellion... Democrat...Trump visiting Caucus site...Hillary in Hotel...Really exciting People are energetiic

where are you watching it Jackson?

 

[HappyJoy]

Overall FINAL standings
1, Trump
2, Sanders
3, Cruz
4, Clinton

You should have just apologized and shut up after this post. You obviously don't understand how a caucus works between the two parties or what primaries really mean. Can you even count to 214?