Jeb

[Statistikhengst]

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Looking more like Jeb is gonna run, so let's look at some random facts.

1. As I understand it, he's a "RINO", so he'd have to overcome the more conservative elements of the GOP.

2. I've heard (haven't seen data on this) that 4 million GOP voters stayed home because Romney was a "RINO".

3. The party needs a presidential victory pretty badly right now.

So if Jeb somehow survived the nominating process, can he win without those 4 million votes, or would some or all of those voters suck it up and vote for him?

I guess the same question applies to Christie.

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I can tell you now that no. 2 is factually incorrect.

In 2004, then-Pres. George W. Bush (43) won re-election with 62,039,572 (62 million, rounded) votes.
This is, in terms of raw votes, the high-water mark for the Republican party.

In 2012, Mitt Romney lost to Obama. Romney got 60,934,407 (61 million, rounded) votes.
This is, in terms of raw votes, the second highest vote tally for a GOPer, ever. He is also one of only two Republicans to crack the 60 million vote mark. Meanwhile, Obama almost made the 70 million vote mark in 2008.

It is 1.1 million votes less than Bush's tally from 2004 and it is 1 million votes more than McCain's 59,950,323 votes in 2008.

Voter registration statistics for the 31 states in the Union that publish voter reg by party affiliation have not shown any large growth for the GOP from 2008 to 2014. In fact, in many states, GOP reg has shrunk.

So, the whole thing with "4 million Republicans stayed home" is just bullshit. GOPers did come out and vote in 2012. Only, there are more Democrats registered nationally than Republicans, and I am not just talking about some very red states that still have DEM voter majorities/pluralities, like KY, WV and OK. In fact, in terms of actual VR stats, right now, the DEMS have a 10 point edge on the GOP in those 31 states.

Not only that, the GOP is not attracting the unaffiliated vote. And we all know why. And that is what is killing their chances in a national election.

Now, as for Jeb himself, I think he is a pretty good guy. Were he to get the GOP nod, I would give him a hard look before making a choice. The question is more whether Americans are ready for a third Bush.

 

[Wry Catcher]

Jeb Bush is a likely candidate and nominee for one reason - he is married to a Latina. Since their Big Tent talking point went no where, the GOP needs to put forth an effort to prove they are not the party of racists, bigots and angry white guys. A very big hurdle since RINO's have been kicked out of the party by the bigots.

IMO biased opinion, the Latino population is not as easily fooled as the single issue voters who have voted for Republicans in the past, many times against their own best interests.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Its not as though he could get his bro to campaign for him.

 

[candycorn]

No more Bushes, Clintons, Kennedys.

End this family entitlement crap.

This, this and more this.

I tire of the monarch like 'succession' that Americans seems to be getting far to comfortable with. Out of 300 million people you would think that we could find a single person that is qualified and does not have a close familial relationship with a previous president.

Of course Bush is the worst of those names to bear. It will be impossible to overcome the bitter resentment that the right has for what Bush did to them. He has exactly zero chance of actually sinning and it has nothing to do with being a RINO. His platform is actually irrelevant - it is the association with Bush Jr. that sinks him right off the bat. I cant fathom why the establishment would even be willing to let him put his name in the ring.

I think we should not have term limits in any election. You should be able to vote for anyone you wish. If the plurality picks A Bush,Kennedy, or Williams for that matter...it's their choice.

 

[Mac1958]

Jeb can win.

He is personable, he will have to run from his brother, and the far right does not elect presidents, only the center does, and Jeb can pull the center.

I agree.
Jeb was a great Gov down here in Florida.

Was he perfect? Hell no but then who is. Does everything he does meet with my approval? Hell no but then who can please everyone. NO ONE.

He's his own man and I think he'd make a great POTUS. Certainly much better that fuck who currently occupies the WH.

Thinking like this may be the GOP's best hope in 2016.

Well, maybe except for that "fuck" part.



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[Iceweasel]

Not only that, the GOP is not attracting the unaffiliated vote. And we all know why. And that is what is killing their chances in a national election.

Which polls are you looking at?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Jeb Bush vs Hillary Clinton.

Yes, American really is THAT Dysfunctional.

My nephew send me a text of a picture of Brasil as an asshole for reelecting their Socialist Failure and there is growing talk of splitting the nation up into 2 countries: The producers and the Brazilian equivalent of the Obama Voters.

 

[Mac1958]

Jeb Bush vs Hillary Clinton.

Yes, American really is THAT Dysfunctional.

Yeah.

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[Statistikhengst]

Not only that, the GOP is not attracting the unaffiliated vote. And we all know why. And that is what is killing their chances in a national election.

Which polls are you looking at?

ALL of them. But you are probably only thinking of 2014. I am thinking of the entire development and esp. the 224 polls already conducted for 2016 as well.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Jeb Bush vs Hillary Clinton.

Yes, American really is THAT Dysfunctional.

Yeah.

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Well, we didn't have term limits for president until 1950 or so, when congressional republicans, so pissed off about FDR defeating them four times in a row, and Harry Truman also defeating them, making for 5 in a row, pushed through a constitutional amendment to limit presidential terms to TWO.

And of course, as history will have it, Dwight D. Eisenhower (one of my favorite presidents of all time) sad publicly and in at least 2 books, that he regretted it, that he would have gladly run for a third term.

 

[Mac1958]

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Still not seeing a lot of direct answers.

If a "RINO" like Jeb or Christie gets the nomination, will a lot of Republicans sit it out?

And I wonder: If a Tea Party favorite gets the nomination, would a lot of moderate Republicans sit it out?

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[Statistikhengst]

Well, if a Tea Partier gets it, than all former predictions get thrown out the window and Hillary climbs over 60% nationally.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

I'd be hard pressed to vote for another Bush...

 

[Mac1958]

Well, it a Tea Partier gets it, than all former predictions get thrown out the window and Hillary climbs over 60% nationally.

Here's what I don't think I get: The Tea Party side of the GOP appears to think (and I may be getting this wrong) that a candidate who does not appear to be terribly fond of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and the very existence of any number of government agencies can attract enough votes to win the White House.

Admittedly, I'm not very good at this prediction stuff, but I just don't see it.

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[Ava]

No more Bushes, Clintons, Kennedys.

End this family entitlement crap.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Well, it a Tea Partier gets it, than all former predictions get thrown out the window and Hillary climbs over 60% nationally.

Here's what I don't think I get: The Tea Party side of the GOP appears to think (and I may be getting this wrong) that a candidate who does not appear to be terribly fond of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and the very existence of any number of government agencies can attract enough votes to win the White House.

Admittedly, I'm not very good at this prediction stuff, but I just don't see it.

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You only need to go as far as to read what Dwight D. Eisenhower said about these things.

Presidential Papers Doc 1147 Personal and confidential To Edgar Newton Eisenhower 8 November 1954. In The Papers of Dwight David Eisenhower

"Now it is true that I believe this country is following a dangerous trend when it permits too great a degree of centralization of governmental functions. I oppose this--in some instances the fight is a rather desperate one. But to attain any success it is quite clear that the Federal government cannot avoid or escape responsibilities which the mass of the people firmly believe should be undertaken by it. The political processes of our country are such that if a rule of reason is not applied in this effort, we will lose everything--even to a possible and drastic change in the Constitution. This is what I mean by my constant insistence upon "moderation" in government. Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are H. L. Hunt (you possibly know his background), a few other Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or business man from other areas.5 Their number is negligible and they are stupid."

Food for thought.

 

[Roadrunner]

Got news for you, 4 million stayed home because Romney is a MORMON.

Lots of good reasons not to vote Mittens, that was a truly dumb one.

I voted for him.

I know many hard-shell Baptists and Pentecostals that stayed home.

 

[JoeB131]

Your projection is simply amazing. In every one of your posts you mention Romney being a Mormon. No one on the right I have ever seen posts a complaint about him being a Mormon, only you on the left. Seems to me that makes you a bigot, not anyone on the right.

YOu can't be a religious bigot.

Either you think Joseph Smith was talking to God or he wasn't.

If you think he was, sign up for your own set of Magic Underpants.

If you know he wasn't, then you have to consider Mormons to be fools.

 

[JoeB131]

So the children killed by Clinton at Waco were child molester? Really, I did not know that. How about the guy killed coming home from work, him too?

First, Koresh killed those kids, not Hillary. Koresh started the fire. Three investigations concluded that.

Second, one less cult full of whacks - more food for the rest of us.

I see you avoided Hillary's war hawk support for the war in Iraq, how hard will you have to hold you nose to vote for her?

War's over, buddy.

 

[blackhawk]

Please God no more Bush's, Clinton's, or community organizers for President.