Just another tick down on unemployment, ho hum

[JonKoch]

When the tax cuts get passed, watch out

Economy will scream, it's already doing better than it ever did under Ears

Sure, like 8 years of Dubya/GOP "job creator" policies did right?

 

[JonKoch]

Over 1 million jobs have been added since Trump was elected. There were over 235,000 added in May! lol

Trump is doing everything right. I couldn't be happier with him.

Weird, Obama had 16 million PRIVATE sector jobs created under him once he hit Bush's bottom, March 2010. Over 16 million more than 8 years of Dubya/GOP "job creator" policies!


SEE A TREND?

 

[Moonglow]

people give up looking. No longer counted.

Well, if one isn't seeking a job, it stands to reason it's not a problem that one doesn't have a job because people who want/need a job, look for a job.

Yes, but after a length of time "they do not exist". They fall off the books. This subject has been beat to death. You have someone 55 years old, lost his job. He may be 57 years old now. Still searching the internet for work. BUT HE DOES NOT EXIST. He is on no list. He does not count. There are millions of these that have fallen off the books each month since 2009 crash. Where am I wrong on that?


POST SAVING EDIT: why did ADP report closer to ~250K private jobs added?

I don't let the Labor Dept. or the IRS know I am working.

 

[usmbguest5318]

people give up looking. No longer counted.

Well, if one isn't seeking a job, it stands to reason it's not a problem that one doesn't have a job because people who want/need a job, look for a job.

Yes, but after a length of time "they do not exist". They fall off the books. This subject has been beat to death. You have someone 55 years old, lost his job. He may be 57 years old now. Still searching the internet for work. BUT HE DOES NOT EXIST. He is on no list. He does not count. There are millions of these that have fallen off the books each month since 2009 crash. Where am I wrong on that?


POST SAVING EDIT: why did ADP report closer to ~250K private jobs added?

I don't let the Labor Dept. or the IRS know I am working.

OT:
I don't have to tell the IRS that. They get my tax filing and payment every quarter.

 

[leftwinger]

I am glad to see the Alt Right glad that Trump is doing just like Obama.

Not tonight Jake.......not tonight. I am getting hammered from two sides. I don't need you crap also!

But yes, The UI is just a bogus now as it was "claimed" to be bogus the last 8 years. What is good for goose is good for gander. I don't know where or how they produce this number, but I still say millions are not accounted for. For instance, Jim Bowie went back to work. He now counts in the LFPR. Was he on the UI books? Was he in never-never land after running out of benefits? Roaming the country like a serial killer? We don't know. Did some one go pull his name from the Unemployed list? Not likely because they were no longer tracking him.

I still say millions are not accounted for.

My parents are among the millions of unemployed people who are not seeking work. They are because they are retired and aren't seeking work. Being retired isn't the only reason people don't seek work, be it over the long term or in the period each month when the BLS collects its data about such things.

• If nearly 40% of Americans aren’t working, what are they doing?
• Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

The people you've been "on about" are called "discouraged workers." There were approximately 540K of them in May 2016. There are now about 355K of them.

I am glad to see the Alt Right glad that Trump is doing just like Obama.

Not tonight Jake.......not tonight. I am getting hammered from two sides. I don't need you crap also!

But yes, The UI is just a bogus now as it was "claimed" to be bogus the last 8 years. What is good for goose is good for gander. I don't know where or how they produce this number, but I still say millions are not accounted for. For instance, Jim Bowie went back to work. He now counts in the LFPR. Was he on the UI books? Was he in never-never land after running out of benefits? Roaming the country like a serial killer? We don't know. Did some one go pull his name from the Unemployed list? Not likely because they were no longer tracking him.

I still say millions are not accounted for.

My parents are among the millions of unemployed people who are not seeking work. They are because they are retired and aren't seeking work. Being retired isn't the only reason people don't seek work, be it over the long term or in the period each month when the BLS collects its data about such things.

• If nearly 40% of Americans aren’t working, what are they doing?
• Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

The people you've been "on about" are called "discouraged workers." There were approximately 540K of them in May 2016. There are now about 355K of them. Given the size of the work force and the quantity of people not seeking work, either sum is immaterial, except perhaps to the people who've become "discouraged" and those who to some extent depend on their having income.

OK. 355K "discouraged workers". I guess the BLS knows all? We have to trust some number(s) right?

I would have thought there were that many in CA alone. But, I will accept the BLS numbers. Shut up Jake. Trump is doing a fantastic job. EVERY measure is getting better Bigly and Quickly. Trust.

 

[JonKoch]

You know what I find odd is adp reported an additional 100,000 the last 2 months above the official report. They have been known to be a little different from the official in the past, but that is more than a little. Some states under reporting, maybe?

4.3% - lowest rates since 2001 - pre 9/11

I love it when a Republican President revs up the economy

New jobs were only up 138K

U.S. Adds 138,000 Jobs In May And Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.3%

ADP has almost always over reported


"With official jobs data seen as a key economic metric, no wonder other agencies second-guess them. But 'guess' is about right"

How good is ADP at forecasting the monthly BLS jobs reports? | Harry J Enten

 

[IResist]

Numbers are real if it's Trump, not if it's Obama's.

We are still under Obama's economy. It's still his budget for the fiscal year. Jobs have been added under Obama's policies, and Trump is taking credit for it.

Trickle down does not create jobs. Period.

 

[JonKoch]

4.3% - lowest rates since 2001 - pre 9/11

I love it when a Republican President revs up the economy

New jobs were only up 138K

U.S. Adds 138,000 Jobs In May And Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.3%

4.3 percent is just a made up number

REAL unemployment is 53 percent

54%, Don't forget they fired Flynn

 

[usmbguest5318]

I am glad to see the Alt Right glad that Trump is doing just like Obama.

Not tonight Jake.......not tonight. I am getting hammered from two sides. I don't need you crap also!

But yes, The UI is just a bogus now as it was "claimed" to be bogus the last 8 years. What is good for goose is good for gander. I don't know where or how they produce this number, but I still say millions are not accounted for. For instance, Jim Bowie went back to work. He now counts in the LFPR. Was he on the UI books? Was he in never-never land after running out of benefits? Roaming the country like a serial killer? We don't know. Did some one go pull his name from the Unemployed list? Not likely because they were no longer tracking him.

I still say millions are not accounted for.

My parents are among the millions of unemployed people who are not seeking work. They are because they are retired and aren't seeking work. Being retired isn't the only reason people don't seek work, be it over the long term or in the period each month when the BLS collects its data about such things.

• If nearly 40% of Americans aren’t working, what are they doing?
• Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

The people you've been "on about" are called "discouraged workers." There were approximately 540K of them in May 2016. There are now about 355K of them.

I am glad to see the Alt Right glad that Trump is doing just like Obama.

Not tonight Jake.......not tonight. I am getting hammered from two sides. I don't need you crap also!

But yes, The UI is just a bogus now as it was "claimed" to be bogus the last 8 years. What is good for goose is good for gander. I don't know where or how they produce this number, but I still say millions are not accounted for. For instance, Jim Bowie went back to work. He now counts in the LFPR. Was he on the UI books? Was he in never-never land after running out of benefits? Roaming the country like a serial killer? We don't know. Did some one go pull his name from the Unemployed list? Not likely because they were no longer tracking him.

I still say millions are not accounted for.

My parents are among the millions of unemployed people who are not seeking work. They are because they are retired and aren't seeking work. Being retired isn't the only reason people don't seek work, be it over the long term or in the period each month when the BLS collects its data about such things.

• If nearly 40% of Americans aren’t working, what are they doing?
• Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

The people you've been "on about" are called "discouraged workers." There were approximately 540K of them in May 2016. There are now about 355K of them. Given the size of the work force and the quantity of people not seeking work, either sum is immaterial, except perhaps to the people who've become "discouraged" and those who to some extent depend on their having income.

OK. 355K "discouraged workers". I guess the BLS knows all? We have to trust some number(s) right?

I would have thought there was that many in CA alone. But, I will accept the BLS numbers. Shut up Jake. Trump is doing a fantastic job. EVERY measure is getting better Bigly and Quickly. Trust.

In my mind, what's most valuable is that the methodology the BLS uses now is the same one they've been using since, I think, the Clinton presidency. That there's for so long been a single approach to measuring and reporting employment information gives germane and easily discerned comparability to the figures the BLS reports. That makes the national level trends one observes in the BLS' figures very credible with regard to "what's going on" in the nation's workforce, and it makes those trends be the thing worth talking about, regardless of what one might think about the figures that comprise the trend.

 

[usmbguest5318]

Numbers are real if it's Trump, not if it's Obama's.

We are still under Obama's economy. It's still his budget for the fiscal year. Jobs have been added under Obama's policies, and Trump is taking credit for it.

Trickle down does not create jobs. Period.

That is so, and people who pay attention to details and rightly consider them when forming their opinions take that into consideration when remarking on the performance of the Trump Administration's actions and policies. Perfunctory and/or purely partisan "pundits," observers and "arm chair" analysts merely go by what they observe in relation to the calendar, unless of course, the results are unfavorable, in which case they attribute the observed performance to "the other guy."

Case in point. When did the "Great Recession" begin to ebb? Summer of 2009, with some peeks in its effects, most notably for this discussion, unemployment, reversing in 2010.

 

[usmbguest5318]

Numbers are real if it's Trump, not if it's Obama's.

We are still under Obama's economy. It's still his budget for the fiscal year. Jobs have been added under Obama's policies, and Trump is taking credit for it.

Trickle down does not create jobs. Period.

That is so, and people who pay attention to details and rightly consider them when forming their opinions take that into consideration when remarking on the performance of the Trump Administration's actions and policies. Perfunctory and/or purely partisan "pundits," observers and "arm chair" analysts merely go by what they observe in relation to the calendar, unless of course, the results are unfavorable, in which case they attribute the observed performance to "the other guy."

Case in point. When did the "Great Recession" begin to ebb? Summer of 2009, with some peeks in its effects, most notably for this discussion, unemployment, reversing in 2010.

As an addendum to my comments above...

It's worth noting that the labor force participation rate, as it has for mearly the last decade, will decrease over lustrum to decade so no matter who's POTUS. It will do so until Millennials, who actually outnumber Baby Boomers, fully ensconced in the workplace/-force, thereby replacing retiring/dying Baby Boomers. (That is to say having a job that corresponds to whatever is their career, not merely being employed at "some job." It won't be until 2028 that enough Baby Boomers will have retired and/or died so that Gen X-ers outnumber them.)

​

 

[leftwinger]

Numbers are real if it's Trump, not if it's Obama's.

We are still under Obama's economy. It's still his budget for the fiscal year. Jobs have been added under Obama's policies, and Trump is taking credit for it.

Trickle down does not create jobs. Period.

That is so, and people who pay attention to details and rightly consider them when forming their opinions take that into consideration when remarking on the performance of the Trump Administration's actions and policies. Perfunctory and/or purely partisan "pundits," observers and "arm chair" analysts merely go by what they observe in relation to the calendar, unless of course, the results are unfavorable, in which case they attribute the observed performance to "the other guy."

Case in point. When did the "Great Recession" begin to ebb? Summer of 2009, with some peeks in its effects, most notably for this discussion, unemployment, reversing in 2010.

As an addendum to my comments above...

It's worth noting that the labor force participation rate, as it has for mearly the last decade, will decrease over lustrum to decade so no matter who's POTUS. It will do so until Millennials, who actually outnumber Baby Boomers, fully ensconced in the workplace/-force, thereby replacing retiring/dying Baby Boomers. (That is to say having a job that corresponds to whatever is their career, not merely being employed at "some job." It won't be until 2028 that enough Baby Boomers will have retired and/or died so that Gen X-ers outnumber them.)

​

The number of Boomers has peaked in 2015?.......10 million more will "die off" during the next 10 years. Interesting. 1 million per year or 2739/day? Looks like a boon for dead body handlers.

With Trumps' Job Boom will there become a shortage of workers? Will the younger Boomers find a way back into the Labor Force? note: Many boomers would continue to work but employers discriminate due to health care costs IMVHO.

If Trump runs off 10million working age Illegals........whatever will he do? Bring in Euros? Euros do not want to landscape or clean Motel 6 rooms..........ahhhh I am getting ahead of myself. tsk tsk.

 

[usmbguest5318]

Numbers are real if it's Trump, not if it's Obama's.

We are still under Obama's economy. It's still his budget for the fiscal year. Jobs have been added under Obama's policies, and Trump is taking credit for it.

Trickle down does not create jobs. Period.

That is so, and people who pay attention to details and rightly consider them when forming their opinions take that into consideration when remarking on the performance of the Trump Administration's actions and policies. Perfunctory and/or purely partisan "pundits," observers and "arm chair" analysts merely go by what they observe in relation to the calendar, unless of course, the results are unfavorable, in which case they attribute the observed performance to "the other guy."

Case in point. When did the "Great Recession" begin to ebb? Summer of 2009, with some peeks in its effects, most notably for this discussion, unemployment, reversing in 2010.

As an addendum to my comments above...

It's worth noting that the labor force participation rate, as it has for mearly the last decade, will decrease over lustrum to decade so no matter who's POTUS. It will do so until Millennials, who actually outnumber Baby Boomers, fully ensconced in the workplace/-force, thereby replacing retiring/dying Baby Boomers. (That is to say having a job that corresponds to whatever is their career, not merely being employed at "some job." It won't be until 2028 that enough Baby Boomers will have retired and/or died so that Gen X-ers outnumber them.)

​

The number of Boomers has peaked in 2015?.......10 million more will "die off" during the next 10 years. Interesting. 1 million per year or 2739/day? Looks like a boon for dead body handlers.

With Trumps' Job Boom will there become a shortage of workers? Will the younger Boomers find a way back into the Labor Force? note: Many boomers would continue to work but employers discriminate due to health care costs IMVHO.

If Trump runs off 10million working age Illegals........whatever will he do? Bring in Euros? Euros do not want to landscape or clean Motel 6 rooms..........ahhhh I am getting ahead of myself. tsk tsk.

The number of Boomers has peaked in 2015?

Do you mean peaked as in "the largest quantity of Boomers to be alive at a given point in time?" Or do you mean "the the time when Boomers represented the largest quantity of people in the workforce/-place?"


The answer to the first question is that Boomers' numbers peaked in 1964, the last year of the Baby Boom and the time when the Baby Boomer generation had suffered the least impact from deaths and infirmity that it possibly could and ever will.

The answer to the second question, I think with regard to the context I've given -- people working at their "career job" rather just at "a job" - is that Boomers still are the largest group in the workforce/-place, but with our aging and dying, we won't, as a generation group, for much longer hold that status. I'm soon to be 60 and I'll retire at some point between 60 and 62, assuming I don't first die.

With Trumps' Job Boom will there become a shortage of workers?

Strictly/macroeconomically speaking a worker "shortage" is what happens when an economy is at or below what's called "structural unemployment," (see also: Unemployment types and Making Sense of Unemployment Data - Page One Economics - St. Louis Fed) which, at the national level, economists put variously between 4% and 6%. Structural unemployment that exists due to a host of short-term factors, but the short of it, simply put, is that it's the rate of unemployment that is unavoidable. Accordingly, the U.S. economy has, in essence, had a worker shortage, i.e., been at structural unemployment levels, for quite some time.

What the structural unemployment rate should be at any given period of time can vary depending on where certain numerically significant industries are in their life cycle with regard to the economy in question. (The industry life cycle is not the same thing as the business cycle. Coal, for example, is reaching the end of its industry life cycle, whereas bioengineering is likely still in its nascence.) It's normal and perfectly fine that industries appear, grow, exist in a mature phase, decline and eventually disappear so long as something -- one or several other industries -- come about to replace the ones that cease to exist. As workers and creators of future workers, it's our "job" to notice what be the emergent industries and guide our children to develop the skills needed by employers in those industries, or, with regard to ourselves, ensure we possess or obtain while we still have "good jobs/careers" the requisite skills that will, at worst, remain in demand by industries that are currently in a mature state. Having the skills needed to work in a declining industry is only useful if one already has a job in that industry and one can be sure their job won't disappear before they no longer want/need to work in that industry.

 

[rightwinger]

Trump has created some part time burger flipping jobs

Nothing to celebrate

 

[U2Edge]

people give up looking. No longer counted.

Well, if one isn't seeking a job, it stands to reason it's not a problem that one doesn't have a job because people who want/need a job, look for a job.

Yes, but after a length of time "they do not exist". They fall off the books. This subject has been beat to death. You have someone 55 years old, lost his job. He may be 57 years old now. Still searching the internet for work. BUT HE DOES NOT EXIST. He is on no list. He does not count. There are millions of these that have fallen off the books each month since 2009 crash. Where am I wrong on that?


POST SAVING EDIT: why did ADP report closer to ~250K private jobs added?

The difference is that in 2017, were starting to see labor shortages. Employers are starting to have difficulty finding workers. It may be that many, especially in the baby boom generation have essentially moved into retirement. The rapid and continuing loss of people from the baby boom generation going into retirement is a large part of the reason the labor force participation rate has dropped so much. 4.3% is a low unemployment rate and its unlikely to drop much more than that. It does not appear that there is going to be some large return to the labor force by all these people that have dropped off the list for whatever the reason. When employers start to struggle to find workers broadly across the economy, that means the economy is near full employment. In fact, a new threat to the economy may in fact be "not enough workers to sustain economic growth at higher levels".

 

[SavannahMann]

4.3% - lowest rates since 2001 - pre 9/11

I love it when a Republican President revs up the economy

New jobs were only up 138K

U.S. Adds 138,000 Jobs In May And Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.3%

The problem is people not in the workforce. The same problem Obama had I might add.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Yay the unemployment rate is down a tick. It is offset by the higher numbers of people who aren't counted. They just don't count. They didn't count under Obama and they still aren't counted.

We need to start getting those folks opportunities. We need to get them counted again.

 

[depotoo]

But that was from 2013. And even then they were talking about their worst errors being around 57,000 jobs, a far cry from the 100,000 the last 2 months. And they were becoming more accurate, as time goes on, according to the article, an NBC contributor.

You know what I find odd is adp reported an additional 100,000 the last 2 months above the official report. They have been known to be a little different from the official in the past, but that is more than a little. Some states under reporting, maybe?

4.3% - lowest rates since 2001 - pre 9/11

I love it when a Republican President revs up the economy

New jobs were only up 138K

U.S. Adds 138,000 Jobs In May And Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.3%

ADP has almost always over reported


"With official jobs data seen as a key economic metric, no wonder other agencies second-guess them. But 'guess' is about right"

How good is ADP at forecasting the monthly BLS jobs reports? | Harry J Enten

 

[U2Edge]

4.3% - lowest rates since 2001 - pre 9/11

I love it when a Republican President revs up the economy

New jobs were only up 138K

U.S. Adds 138,000 Jobs In May And Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.3%

The problem is people not in the workforce. The same problem Obama had I might add.

View attachment 130558

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Yay the unemployment rate is down a tick. It is offset by the higher numbers of people who aren't counted. They just don't count. They didn't count under Obama and they still aren't counted.

We need to start getting those folks opportunities. We need to get them counted again.

Well, a lot of people are not counted because they are not looking for work for a variety of reasons. Employers can't really do anything with people who are not looking for work. Labor shortages all across the economy are starting to appear. That's a problem for business and in the long run, the economic growth of the country. Immigration or automation is more likely to be the answer than people no longer counted in the labor force.

 

[danielpalos]

When the tax cuts get passed, watch out

Economy will scream, it's already doing better than it ever did under Ears

only the right will "scream due to all of our new debt".

 

[Rustic]

Trump has created some part time burger flipping jobs

Nothing to celebrate

Coal mining up 17-19 percent... six-figure incomes