Moody's Predicts Democrat Landslide

[Roudy]

Anybody who predicts who's going to win without even knowing who the nominees are is totally fulla crap. The one to watch is Nate Silver, they haven't been wrong, and haven't provided their prediction yet.

 

[konradv]

Anybody who predicts who's going to win without even knowing who the nominees are is totally fulla crap. The one to watch is Nate Silver, they haven't been wrong, and haven't provided their prediction yet.

There are demographic trends that say the Republicans have a tough hill to climb. That's a fact and it doesn't take Nate Silver to recognize it.

 

[Dad2three]

True, it's PROGRESSIVE/LIBERAL policy that created the worlds largest middle class. CONservative/GOP policy that is destroying it though!

 

[koshergrl]

I predict a Dem landslide, too. Voter fraud is awesome.

 

[Dad2three]

New database of US voter fraud finds no evidence that photo ID laws are needed


A new nationwide analysis of 2,068 alleged election-fraud cases since 2000 shows that while fraud has occurred, the rate is infinitesimal, and in-person voter impersonation on Election Day, which prompted 37 state legislatures to enact or consider tough voter ID laws, is virtually non-existent.



In an exhaustive public records search, reporters from the investigative reporting projecdt News21 sent thousands of requests to elections officers in all 50 states, asking for every case of fraudulent activity including registration fraud, absentee ballot fraud, vote buying, false election counts, campaign fraud, casting an ineligible vote, voting twice, voter impersonation fraud and intimidation.

Analysis of the resulting comprehensive News21 election fraud database turned up 10 cases of voter impersonation. With 146 million registered voters in the United States during that time, those 10 cases represent one out of about every 15 million prospective voters.

“Voter fraud at the polls is an insignificant aspect of American elections,”


New database of US voter fraud finds no evidence that photo ID laws are needed - Investigations



The Bush Justice Department conducted a massive, five-year (300+ million votes) investigation into voter fraud that resulted in a mere 86 convictions nationwide. An independent investigation into voter fraud in Missouri in 2000 determined that the rate of voter fraud in that state was 0.0003%. A similar study in Ohio in 2004 turned up a percentage of 0.0004%, while another study in Wisconsin the same year measured the proportion of fraudulent votes at 0.0002%.

Notably, in virtually every case the “fraudulent” votes involved either in- and out-of-state double voting or votes cast by ineligible voters, chiefly ex-felons, problems that would not be addressed by photo ID. None were cases of actual fraud via voter impersonation.




The Fraud of Voter Fraud

Yo, Dunce, it doesn`t matter if it`s one voter fraud or one million? We have to show I.D. in everything we do, so I say I.D. the illegals!!! You know your girl Hillary Clinton will do anything and everything to win an election, she is doing so bad!!!
So, if you don`t like the idea, tough shit, live with it!!!

It needs fixing, How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.

Read more at: Jaw-Dropping Study Claims Large Numbers of Non-Citizens Vote in U.S. | National Review Online

"GTP"
View attachment 49020

REALLY? Restricting HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS to stop one illegal vote is good fiscal policy? lol

Wait ANOTHER CONservative "study" CLAIMS there illegals REGISTERED TO VOTE? AND THEN THEY TURN IT AROUND TO SAY THEY ACTUALLY VOTE? lol


Dubya's DOJ FIVE YEAR UNPRECEDENTED INVESTIGATION, WHERE THEY FIRED PROSECUTORS BECAUSE THEY WOULDN'T PLAY POLITICS WITH THE GOP, LOOKED AT 300+ MILLION VOTES, AND FOUND LESS THAN 90, MOST WHO WERE FELONS WHO DIDN'T REALIZE THEY LOST THEIR RIGHTS, AND PROSECUTED ZERO PEOPLE FOR TAKING ANOTHER NAME AT THE POLL, THE ONLY TYPE OF FRAUD GOP VOTER ID RESTRICTION LAWS STOP???





YOUR LINK:




"Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES)."


Methodological challenges affect study of non-citizens’ voting


OOPS

A number of academics and commentators have already expressed skepticism about the paper’s assumptions and conclusions, though. In a series of tweets, New York Times columnist Nate Cohn focused his criticism on Richman et al’s use of Cooperative Congressional Election Study data to make inferences about the non-citizen voting population. That critique has some merit, too. The 2008 and 2010 CCES surveyed large opt-in Internet samples constructed by the polling firm YouGov to be nationally representative of the adult citizen population. Consequently, the assumption that non-citizens, who volunteered to take online surveys administered in English about American politics, would somehow be representative of the entire non-citizen population seems tenuous at best.

Perhaps a bigger problem with utilizing CCES data to make claims about the non-citizen voting in the United States is that some respondents might have mistakenly misreported their citizenship status on this survey (e.g. response error). For, as Richman et al. state in their Electoral Studies article, “If most or all of the ‘non-citizens’ who indicated that they voted were in fact citizens who accidentally misstated their citizenship status, then the data would have nothing to contribute concerning the frequency of non-citizen voting.” In fact, any response error in self-reported citizenship status could have substantially altered the authors’ conclusions because they were only able to validate the votes of five respondents who claimed to be non-citizen voters in the 2008 CCES.

It turns out that such response error was common for self-reported non-citizens in the 2010-2012 CCES Panel Study — a survey that re-interviewed 19,533 respondents in 2012 who had currently participated in the 2010 CCES. The first table below, for instance, shows that nearly one-fifth of CCES panelists who said that they were not American citizens in 2012 actually reported being American citizens when they were originally surveyed for the 2010 CCES. Since it’s illogical for non-citizens in 2012 to have been American citizens back in 2010, it appears that a substantial number of self-reported non-citizens inaccurately reported their (non)citizenship status in the CCES surveys.



Even more problematic, misreported citizenship status was most common among respondents who claimed to be non-citizen voters. The second table below shows that 41 percent of self-reported non-citizen voters in the 2012 CCES reported being citizens back in 2010. The table goes on to show that 71 percent of respondents, who said that they were both 2012 non-citizens and 2010 voters, had previously reported being citizens of the United States in the 2010 CCES. With the authors’ extrapolations of the non-citizen voting population based on a small number of validated votes from self-reported non-citizens (N = 5), this high frequency of response error in non-citizenship status raises important doubts about their conclusions.

Methodological challenges affect study of non-citizens’ voting


LOL

WEIRD HOW EVERY ELECTION CYCLE THIS BS COMES UP, ALWAYS DEBUNKED, BUT NEVER GOES AWAY FROM YOU DISHONEST POS'S!

Yo, maybe one day you will get it? Doubt it!!!

"GTP"

Oh I got it Bubba, DEMOLISHED the right wing MYTH of voter fraud. I'd say it was a grand-slam actually!

Yo, this Country was made by Laws, get use to it!

"GTP"

Sure Bubs, I get it, the right wing LOVES to create laws for a bigger more intrusive Gov't, think laws where there is ZERO evidence of ANY fraud stopped with the GOP voter SUPPRESSION law. Or the laws to get between a woman and her doc, or laws to discriminate against gays. Weird how the "small Gubrmnt" crowd LOVES to be SOOOOO intrusive!

 

[Dad2three]

I predict a Dem landslide, too. Voter fraud is awesome.

Without myths and fairy tales, what would the right wing EVER have? lol

 

[blackhawk]

True, it's PROGRESSIVE/LIBERAL policy that created the worlds largest middle class. CONservative/GOP policy that is destroying it though!

Thank you for the predictable partisan response if it's your intent to post the standard liberal talking points in a response please find someone else there are many people here who will love to get into dueling talking points exchange with you I'm not one of them.

 

[koshergrl]

I predict a Dem landslide, too. Voter fraud is awesome.

Without myths and fairy tales, what would the right wing EVER have? lol

Without the myths and fairy tales of the left, we'd have freedom and peace, and a system that worked.

 

[GHook93]

And these models are never wrong ...

Our Moody's Analytics election model now predicts a Democratic electoral landslide in the 2016 presidential vote. A small change in the forecast data in August has swung the outcome from the statistical tie predicted in July, to a razor-edge ballot outcome that nevertheless gives the incumbent party 326 electoral votes to the Republican challenger's 212.

Just three states account for the change in margin, with Ohio, Florida and Colorado swinging from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat. The margin of victory in each of these important swing states is still solidly within the margin of error though, and will likely swing back and forth in Moody's monthly updates ahead, underlining the closeness of the election to come. Furthermore, three of the candidates for the Republican nomination enjoy favorite-son status in Ohio or Florida, potentially making the outcome of those important states even more unpredictable.
​

Democrats to Win in a Landslide in 2016, According to Moody's Election Model

The electoral colleges are rigged for an easy Democratic victory. But without the house and senate, don't expect much hope or change.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Dad2three]

True, it's PROGRESSIVE/LIBERAL policy that created the worlds largest middle class. CONservative/GOP policy that is destroying it though!

Thank you for the predictable partisan response if it's your intent to post the standard liberal talking points in a response please find someone else there are many people here who will love to get into dueling talking points exchange with you I'm not one of them.

Partisan? Hint NAME ONE POLICY conservatives have EVER been on the correct side of US history?

How about just ONE policy from GOP the past 40 years that benefited the bottom 90% of US?

Pretend like it's "partisan" Bubs, when CONSERVATIVES are ALWAYS on the wrong side of history!!!

 

[Dad2three]

I predict a Dem landslide, too. Voter fraud is awesome.

Without myths and fairy tales, what would the right wing EVER have? lol

Without the myths and fairy tales of the left, we'd have freedom and peace, and a system that worked.

You mean like SS that keeps nearly half of seniors out of poverty? A left idea, righties fought it

Medicare that GREATLY increased medical care of seniors, and gave them affordable insurance? A left idea, righties fought it

Ending slavery? A left idea, righties fought it

Union rights? A left idea, righties fought it

Civil rights? A left idea, righties fought it

Min wage? A left idea, righties fought it


Righties LOVE the poor who shout "freedom" lol

 

[rightwinger]

Anybody who predicts who's going to win without even knowing who the nominees are is totally fulla crap. The one to watch is Nate Silver, they haven't been wrong, and haven't provided their prediction yet.

You act like everyone has an equal chance and there is a level playing field.
The Democrats start with a huge lead in electoral votes. The only chance for Republicans is in sweeping the battleground states. They have a very small margin for error




.

 

[guno]

And these models are never wrong ...

Our Moody's Analytics election model now predicts a Democratic electoral landslide in the 2016 presidential vote. A small change in the forecast data in August has swung the outcome from the statistical tie predicted in July, to a razor-edge ballot outcome that nevertheless gives the incumbent party 326 electoral votes to the Republican challenger's 212.

Just three states account for the change in margin, with Ohio, Florida and Colorado swinging from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat. The margin of victory in each of these important swing states is still solidly within the margin of error though, and will likely swing back and forth in Moody's monthly updates ahead, underlining the closeness of the election to come. Furthermore, three of the candidates for the Republican nomination enjoy favorite-son status in Ohio or Florida, potentially making the outcome of those important states even more unpredictable.
​

Democrats to Win in a Landslide in 2016, According to Moody's Election Model

Well the right wing christian crackerstanies now make up only 30 percent of the voting population

 

[thereisnospoon]

Well that settles it!

Why even bother to hold an election?

Bingo....This is just another political ploy on the part of democrat operatives to convince GOP voters they have no chance and should just stay home on election day...
Same shit. Different flies.

You sure think poorly of Republican voters.

Hey. three million stayed home in 2012. Because these closed minded hacks could not STAND to vote for a Mormon, scuttled the election by taking their ball and going home....These fucking far right wing Pentecostal bible thumpers gave us 4 more years of Obama. They could not see beyond their own religious prejudice for the good of the country....Lo and behold, a few polls ( what if the election were held today)were taken 6 months to a year into Obama II and they all indicated that either the election would have been much closer or Romney would have won

 

[thereisnospoon]

And these models are never wrong ...

Our Moody's Analytics election model now predicts a Democratic electoral landslide in the 2016 presidential vote. A small change in the forecast data in August has swung the outcome from the statistical tie predicted in July, to a razor-edge ballot outcome that nevertheless gives the incumbent party 326 electoral votes to the Republican challenger's 212.

Just three states account for the change in margin, with Ohio, Florida and Colorado swinging from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat. The margin of victory in each of these important swing states is still solidly within the margin of error though, and will likely swing back and forth in Moody's monthly updates ahead, underlining the closeness of the election to come. Furthermore, three of the candidates for the Republican nomination enjoy favorite-son status in Ohio or Florida, potentially making the outcome of those important states even more unpredictable.
​

Democrats to Win in a Landslide in 2016, According to Moody's Election Model

Well the right wing christian crackerstanies now make up only 30 percent of the voting population

Says who?

 

[thereisnospoon]

shows the value of Bush, Rubio, and Kasich

we have to have OH and FL for the GOP

"we"?....You are as far left as Obama.....

YouGOP are as far right as Fred Phelps. I am mainstream, you are reactionary far right.

You are main stream all right. Main stream liberal....
You side with the libs. You post lib....You are a lib..

 

[Dad2three]

Well that settles it!

Why even bother to hold an election?

Bingo....This is just another political ploy on the part of democrat operatives to convince GOP voters they have no chance and should just stay home on election day...
Same shit. Different flies.

You sure think poorly of Republican voters.

Hey. three million stayed home in 2012. Because these closed minded hacks could not STAND to vote for a Mormon, scuttled the election by taking their ball and going home....These fucking far right wing Pentecostal bible thumpers gave us 4 more years of Obama. They could not see beyond their own religious prejudice for the good of the country....Lo and behold, a few polls ( what if the election were held today)were taken 6 months to a year into Obama II and they all indicated that either the election would have been much closer or Romney would have won

The winner-take-all aspect of choosing electors, effectively limiting presidential electoral competition to a handful of competitive states, has a major impact on turnout. In swing or battleground states, where large amounts of money are spent on saturation television advertising, massive mobilization efforts and the location of the majority of campaign forays – the average turnout in this year’s election was 62.7 percent of eligible voters. Across the rest of the nation, average turnout was 54.8 percent.

....Democratic turnout also increased in only two states and the same states—Louisiana (up .4 percentage points) and Iowa (0.1) The largest decreases were in New York (minus 7.8 percentage points), DC (-7.1), Utah (-6.7), and Illinois (6.4).

Republican turnout increased in 15 states led by North Dakota (up 2.7 percentage points), followed by Wisconsin (2.5), Utah (1.6), Iowa (1.5) and Massachusetts (1.1). The largest decreases were in Indiana (minus 5.1 percentage points), followed by New Jersey (-4.7), New York (-4.5), Oklahoma (-3.7) and Mississippi (-3.4).


2012 Election Turnout Dips Below 2008 and 2004 Levels: Number Of Eligible Voters Increases By Eight Million, Five Million Fewer Votes Cast | Bipartisan Policy Center

 

[Dad2three]

shows the value of Bush, Rubio, and Kasich

we have to have OH and FL for the GOP

"we"?....You are as far left as Obama.....

YouGOP are as far right as Fred Phelps. I am mainstream, you are reactionary far right.

You are main stream all right. Main stream liberal....
You side with the libs. You post lib....You are a lib..

In REALITY that means GOOD GOV'T POLICY that works. Unlike CONservative policy!

 

[Dad2three]

Well that settles it!

Why even bother to hold an election?

Bingo....This is just another political ploy on the part of democrat operatives to convince GOP voters they have no chance and should just stay home on election day...
Same shit. Different flies.

You sure think poorly of Republican voters.

Hey. three million stayed home in 2012. Because these closed minded hacks could not STAND to vote for a Mormon, scuttled the election by taking their ball and going home....These fucking far right wing Pentecostal bible thumpers gave us 4 more years of Obama. They could not see beyond their own religious prejudice for the good of the country....Lo and behold, a few polls ( what if the election were held today)were taken 6 months to a year into Obama II and they all indicated that either the election would have been much closer or Romney would have won

The turnout myth comes from a statistic that has been endlessly repeated: Mitt Romney got fewer votes than John McCain in 2008. This isn't quite true (Mr. Romney this week eked past the McCain totals), and in any event it is somewhat irrelevant. The Romney vote count reflects a nationwide voter turnout that was down nearly five percentage points from 2008. What matters is how the GOP did in the battleground states.



And there? Mr. Romney beat Mr. McCain's numbers in every single battleground, save Ohio


The GOP Turnout Myth

 

[thereisnospoon]

shows the value of Bush, Rubio, and Kasich

we have to have OH and FL for the GOP

"we"?....You are as far left as Obama.....

YouGOP are as far right as Fred Phelps. I am mainstream, you are reactionary far right.

You are main stream all right. Main stream liberal....
You side with the libs. You post lib....You are a lib..

In REALITY that means GOOD GOV'T POLICY that works. Unlike CONservative policy!

Works? For whom?....Please.