Now that Kasich wins Ohio his mission is to catch Cruz

[JimBowie1958]

Rule 40B says that no one can be put into consideration without having won at the majority of delegates of each of 8 state delegations.

Pretty sure that is only for first ballot voting. After the delegates are "released" to vote for whomever, that rule ceases to be effective.

No, there is no limitation to that restriction.

It was put in by Romneys people to keep anyone like Santorum or Ron Paul doing an end run at the convention. So it was set to apply to the whole time aof the convention.

You got a link to that?

lol, I think I have it somewhere, but I am not going to bother fetching it for a libtard.

 

[HappyJoy]

Rule 40B says that no one can be put into consideration without having won at the majority of delegates of each of 8 state delegations.

Pretty sure that is only for first ballot voting. After the delegates are "released" to vote for whomever, that rule ceases to be effective.

No, there is no limitation to that restriction.

It was put in by Romneys people to keep anyone like Santorum or Ron Paul doing an end run at the convention. So it was set to apply to the whole time aof the convention.

You got a link to that?

lol, I think I have it somewhere, but I am not going to bother fetching it for a libtard.

I'm not asking you to fetch it, I'm genuinely curious. To me, it doesn't make a lot of sense where the delegates are not released from this rule after the first vote, it would seem pointless.

 

[Steven_R]

He won his home state. That's generally to be expected. But his show doesn't play all that great on the road.

 

[Agit8r]

Mathematically, his best shot is a brokered convention.

 

[SwimExpert]

I'm not so sure Rubio support necessarily translates to Kasich, sure, he'll get some, maybe even a plurality but the rest will be shared with Trump and Cruz and at least Cruz is closer to Trump and could possibly reach him, Kasich I don't think can.

Rubio supporters are likely to be strongly anti-Trump, so I don't see there being any significant migration of support there. The real distinction will be whether they go to Cruz or Kasich. Whether Cruz or Kasich has a "better chance" to beat Trump has become irrelevant. Everyone knows it's going into a brokered convention at this point. People will support the candidate they most prefer. Anti-Trump Rubio supporters won't migrate to Cruz just for the sake of being anti-Trump. In fact, anti-Trump voters will be more likely to avoid Cruz, because Cruz is more like Trump.

Maybe Kasich naming Rubio as his VP might slide even more votes over, but what does he lose? Trump supporters certainly don't want any of that and I don't think Cruz supporters care much for Rubio either, he's a RINO after all.

You're very correct here. Kasich could do well to offer Rubio the VP slot in exchange for an endorsement now. That's what I meant when I said that it will depend on whether Rubio is smart enough to realize that Kasich is the best avenue for salvaging his own political career. A Kasich/Rubio ticket is practically guaranteed to win in November and a strong contender for a two term administration, and if Rubio is smart he'll realize that riding the VP slot on this winning ticket is his best avenue to one day becoming President.

If Rubio endorses Kasich, then Kasich will likely pick up nearly all of would-have-been Rubio voters. If there's no endorsement, then Kasich will pick up most, but not as many.

If Kasich were savvy, we'd see it by now, Don't know about you, I'm not seeing it. There is no spark, he won a contest that everyone expected him to win and if he didn't he'd be out right now. Also, while his win in Ohio was in the double digits, he didn't cross 50% in his home state.

You're not seeing it because you're looking for superficial results. Drumpf is currently the front runner and gets lots of attention. Do you think he's something special?

 

[Skylar]

You'll care when they don't show up at the polls to vote for the GOP candidate. Or more probable....if they form a third party around Trump. As either scenario costs you the election.

No. Trump's supporters only amount to 10% of the population.

The 'population'? The 'population' doesn't vote. The electorate does. And among probable GOP voters, they're about 35%.

Good luck winning an election with roughly 1 in 3 of your voters not showing up.

Is the math starting to sink in yet?

Jesus fucking Christ, how many calories do you burn being intentionally stupid. Population, voting population, big fucking deal. You knew damn well what I meant.

Yeah, they only differ by more than double. What's the difference, right?

You're sitting here in this thread talking about cognitive dissonance and questioning people's math skills, yet you're the one who is blatantly ignoring facts so as to invent an imaginary fantasy scenario, all while throwing out meaningless "what-ifs" that are mathematically meaningless.

Here's some math for you: The GOP accounts for 29% of registered voters. A whopping 40+% of registered voters are independents. Among GOP voters Trump only has about 35% support. That comes out to be 10% of registered voters.

You're talking about more than 13 million people. In the last election, Republicans managed 60 million. Without Trump supporters....that drops less than 47 million. A loss of almost 22%.

So tell me....when was the last time a republican won with less than 47 million? Care to take a guess? I'll give you a hint. The Beatles hadn't broken up yet. And there was a third party.

You're deluding yourself if you think there is any plausible road to the white house for the GOP candidate with a loss of more than 13,000,000 voters.

Straight up, drinking the koolaid, singing kumbaya while smoking a doobie delusional.

 

[Skylar]

You'll care when they don't show up at the polls to vote for the GOP candidate. Or more probable....if they form a third party around Trump. As either scenario costs you the election.

No. Trump's supporters only amount to 10% of the population.

The 'population'? The 'population' doesn't vote. The electorate does. And among probable GOP voters, they're about 35%.

Good luck winning an election with roughly 1 in 3 of your voters not showing up.

Is the math starting to sink in yet?

Jesus fucking Christ, how many calories do you burn being intentionally stupid. Population, voting population, big fucking deal. You knew damn well what I meant.

You're sitting here in this thread talking about cognitive dissonance and questioning people's math skills, yet you're the one who is blatantly ignoring facts so as to invent an imaginary fantasy scenario, all while throwing out meaningless "what-ifs" that are mathematically meaningless.

Here's some math for you: The GOP accounts for 29% of registered voters. A whopping 40+% of registered voters are independents. Among GOP voters Trump only has about 35% support. That comes out to be 10% of registered voters.

At least 50% of non-supporters are indicating that they'll never vote for Trump if he is nominated. Trump's support among Democrats and Independents is infintesimal. So that means that in a general election Trump would garner no more than roughly 15% support among registered voters. Now, I'm sure you love that idea. It's why you're salivating at the hope of Trump being nominated. But those of us with brains in the GOP realize that that would be a horrible thing. Trump's 10% can stay home in November and fuck themselves with cacti for all I care. I'm much more interested in having a candidate who can gain support among that whopping 40ish% of Independents to add to the 20% of voters who are Republicans who do come out in November.

Now if you can't get that through your thick skull than beat your face with your computer monitor until it sinks in.

If 10% of Republicans stayed home because Trump wasn't the nominee its a Democratic landslide.

With no disrespect meant in the slightest.....no-fucking-duh.

I'm astonished only you've managed to figure that out yet.

 

[HappyJoy]

I'm not so sure Rubio support necessarily translates to Kasich, sure, he'll get some, maybe even a plurality but the rest will be shared with Trump and Cruz and at least Cruz is closer to Trump and could possibly reach him, Kasich I don't think can.

Rubio supporters are likely to be strongly anti-Trump, so I don't see there being any significant migration of support there. The real distinction will be whether they go to Cruz or Kasich. Whether Cruz or Kasich has a "better chance" to beat Trump has become irrelevant. Everyone knows it's going into a brokered convention at this point. People will support the candidate they most prefer. Anti-Trump Rubio supporters won't migrate to Cruz just for the sake of being anti-Trump. In fact, anti-Trump voters will be more likely to avoid Cruz, because Cruz is more like Trump.

Maybe Kasich naming Rubio as his VP might slide even more votes over, but what does he lose? Trump supporters certainly don't want any of that and I don't think Cruz supporters care much for Rubio either, he's a RINO after all.

You're very correct here. Kasich could do well to offer Rubio the VP slot in exchange for an endorsement now. That's what I meant when I said that it will depend on whether Rubio is smart enough to realize that Kasich is the best avenue for salvaging his own political career. A Kasich/Rubio ticket is practically guaranteed to win in November and a strong contender for a two term administration, and if Rubio is smart he'll realize that riding the VP slot on this winning ticket is his best avenue to one day becoming President.

If Rubio endorses Kasich, then Kasich will likely pick up nearly all of would-have-been Rubio voters. If there's no endorsement, then Kasich will pick up most, but not as many.

If Kasich were savvy, we'd see it by now, Don't know about you, I'm not seeing it. There is no spark, he won a contest that everyone expected him to win and if he didn't he'd be out right now. Also, while his win in Ohio was in the double digits, he didn't cross 50% in his home state.

You're not seeing it because you're looking for superficial results. Drumpf is currently the front runner and gets lots of attention. Do you think he's something special?

Yeah, I'm not buying this. Rubio like Kasich doesn't have a lot of support. Also, a Rubio endorsement means next to nothing, he only got 27% in his home state. Currently the RCP average for Kasich and Rubio combined is 30% and I wouldn't expect Kasich to get more than 2/3rds of that support which would be considered a lot.'

Also, as has been pointed out, a brokered or contested convention has dire consequences for the electibility of the eventual GOP nominee, if that nominee didn't just only come in 2nd but 3rd (or last), that's not popular, throw Rubio on that ticket and you might as well ask for rioting in the street by the Dark Furrys of the world.

 

[HappyJoy]

You'll care when they don't show up at the polls to vote for the GOP candidate. Or more probable....if they form a third party around Trump. As either scenario costs you the election.

No. Trump's supporters only amount to 10% of the population.

The 'population'? The 'population' doesn't vote. The electorate does. And among probable GOP voters, they're about 35%.

Good luck winning an election with roughly 1 in 3 of your voters not showing up.

Is the math starting to sink in yet?

Jesus fucking Christ, how many calories do you burn being intentionally stupid. Population, voting population, big fucking deal. You knew damn well what I meant.

You're sitting here in this thread talking about cognitive dissonance and questioning people's math skills, yet you're the one who is blatantly ignoring facts so as to invent an imaginary fantasy scenario, all while throwing out meaningless "what-ifs" that are mathematically meaningless.

Here's some math for you: The GOP accounts for 29% of registered voters. A whopping 40+% of registered voters are independents. Among GOP voters Trump only has about 35% support. That comes out to be 10% of registered voters.

At least 50% of non-supporters are indicating that they'll never vote for Trump if he is nominated. Trump's support among Democrats and Independents is infintesimal. So that means that in a general election Trump would garner no more than roughly 15% support among registered voters. Now, I'm sure you love that idea. It's why you're salivating at the hope of Trump being nominated. But those of us with brains in the GOP realize that that would be a horrible thing. Trump's 10% can stay home in November and fuck themselves with cacti for all I care. I'm much more interested in having a candidate who can gain support among that whopping 40ish% of Independents to add to the 20% of voters who are Republicans who do come out in November.

Now if you can't get that through your thick skull than beat your face with your computer monitor until it sinks in.

If 10% of Republicans stayed home because Trump wasn't the nominee its a Democratic landslide.

With no disrespect meant in the slightest.....no-fucking-duh.

I'm astonished only you've managed to figure that out yet.

If we threw that 10% loss evenly across all states, we take North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri, a good shot at Georgia and Arizona, hell even Montana comes into play.

 

[Silhouette]

He won his home state. That's generally to be expected. But his show doesn't play all that great on the road.

Kasich looks the best in California. 172 delegates in that state alone. Then there's the rest of the Rust Belt and New England..

 

[HappyJoy]

He won his home state. That's generally to be expected. But his show doesn't play all that great on the road.

Kasich looks the best in California. 172 delegates in that state alone. Then there's the rest of the Rust Belt and New England..

How does he look in California?

 

[Skylar]

He won his home state. That's generally to be expected. But his show doesn't play all that great on the road.

Kasich looks the best in California. 172 delegates in that state alone. Then there's the rest of the Rust Belt and New England..

That last poll to measure the republican primary in California....put Kasich at 1%.

That's smaller than the margin of error. And California isn't a lump state. You have to win by congressional district.

 

[JimBowie1958]

He won his home state. That's generally to be expected. But his show doesn't play all that great on the road.

True....but who are you talking about? Kasich?

 

[Skylar]

He won his home state. That's generally to be expected. But his show doesn't play all that great on the road.

Kasich looks the best in California. 172 delegates in that state alone. Then there's the rest of the Rust Belt and New England..

How does he look in California?

Sil is in California. And she's looking. And likes Kasich. So he 'looks best in California'.

The polling data is old, but never shows Kasich above 2%. While Trump vacilates between 17 and 24

 

[oreo]

Trump will not be the nominee. The convention will be brokered. Kasich is the seasoned vet here, and where some have discounted him he's stayed the course, knowing exactly where he wants to go.

Kasich's goals is not to go in with the most delegates. It's to go in with more than Cruz if possible, or at least be close enough with Cruz to have negotiating leverage. If he does, he likely becomes the nominee. And if he is nominated, he defeats Clinton in November. If not, we get four more years of Democrat occupancy in the Oval Office.

This is the most interesting primary I have ever witnessed in my old age. There is definitely a civil war going on within the Republican party, and it showed up again tonight. Republicans are splitting the vote, and in these open and mixed primaries we may have an Operation Cayuse going on with the Trump vote. That's why I don't like open primaries they can be very misleading when Independents are allowed to vote, and in some states Democrats vote for Republicans and visa versa. They want a Trump nominee, because they feel Hillary could beat him, so they vote for him. On the opposite side they're voting for Bernie because they know that Mickey Mouse could be him.

The anyone but Trump Republican voters--are splitting the vote between Cruz, Kashich & Rubio albeit he dropped out tonight.

So I think a brokered convention looks likely. But, we all know that's going to lead to riots in the street. There are some talking about the Republican party throwing in a 3rd party candidate now. They know that they're forfeiting the White House to Hillary Clinton by doing that, but they're trying to save the Senate and House and all the down ballot races in this country. They fear a total wipe out with Trump as the nominee.
McConnell Tells GOP Senators: We’ll Drop Trump ‘Like A Hot Rock’

 

[HappyJoy]

He won his home state. That's generally to be expected. But his show doesn't play all that great on the road.

Kasich looks the best in California. 172 delegates in that state alone. Then there's the rest of the Rust Belt and New England..

How does he look in California?

Sil is in California. And she's looking. And likes Kasich. So he 'looks best in California'.

The polling data is old, but never shows Kasich above 2%. While Trump vacilates between 17 and 24

Yeah, I just wanted the delusions of grandeur explained. Even if both Trump and Cruz dropped out of the race it is impossible for Kasich to earn enough delegates.

 

[mudwhistle]

He's won ONE state for cripes sake, be realistic. He can't catch Cruz.

His speech is ridiculous. He almost cries? WTH??!! I think he may start burning incense and having everyone share a group hug. What he should do is start writing self help books

A president with a conscience? Haven't had one of those in a very long time.

Kascish is pro-Amnesty.

I will not vote for anyone who is.

Then vote for a sociopath who believes in I instead of we the people.

I'm not voting for Hillary either.

 

[mudwhistle]

Trump will not be the nominee. The convention will be brokered. Kasich is the seasoned vet here, and where some have discounted him he's stayed the course, knowing exactly where he wants to go.

Kasich's goals is not to go in with the most delegates. It's to go in with more than Cruz if possible, or at least be close enough with Cruz to have negotiating leverage. If he does, he likely becomes the nominee. And if he is nominated, he defeats Clinton in November. If not, we get four more years of Democrat occupancy in the Oval Office.

This is the most interesting primary I have ever witnessed in my old age. There is definitely a civil war going on within the Republican party, and it showed up again tonight. Republicans are splitting the vote, and in these open and mixed primaries we may have an Operation Cayuse going on with the Trump vote. That's why I don't like open primaries they can be very misleading when Independents are allowed to vote, and in some states Democrats vote for Republicans and visa versa. They want a Trump nominee, because they feel Hillary could beat him, so they vote for him. On the opposite side they're voting for Bernie because they know that Mickey Mouse could be him.

The anyone but Trump Republican voters--are splitting the vote between Cruz, Kashich & Rubio albeit he dropped out tonight.

So I think a brokered convention looks likely. But, we all know that's going to lead to riots in the street. There are some talking about the Republican party throwing in a 3rd party candidate now. They know that they're forfeiting the White House to Hillary Clinton by doing that, but they're trying to save the Senate and House and all the down ballot races in this country. They fear a total wipe out with Trump as the nominee.
McConnell Tells GOP Senators: We’ll Drop Trump ‘Like A Hot Rock’

That makes no sense at all.

If they stopped acting like Democrats and just got behind the frontrunner who is an outsider, they'd keep Congress and have a good chance of beating that lying Hillary. But if they keep this up, by the time November rolls around, most voters will be so fed up with them, they will only vote for the president and leave the rest blank, or not even show up.

 

[SwimExpert]

If 10% of Republicans stayed home because Trump wasn't the nominee its a Democratic landslide.

 

[Militants]

He's won ONE state for cripes sake, be realistic

Exactly. He's won one state. And yet, he is well positioned. Cruz doesn't have that kind of capability.

How much it's between Kasich vs Cruz ?? !!