Official USMB Mafia Game #6: The Rebels In The Palace

[Wolfsister77]

Oh, and ika, you have almost everyone on your list as scum. I'm not the ruler. I helped kill FA. But hey, whatever.

 

[Avatar4321]

so who did he think were guards again?

 

[Mertex]

so who did he think were guards again?

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

 

[Wake]

VC incoming tonight.

 

[Avatar4321]

so who did he think were guards again?

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

 

[Wolfsister77]

Not exactly. Who FA thought was a guard was relevant. It means they are not likely the ruler.

so who did he think were guards again?

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

Myself and SR were his guard reads.

Aye and Arden were his town reads.

I say we vote off Arden.

 

[Wolfsister77]

So Arden posted about 25 or so times in the game and there were only 2 posts that look town. After viewing her ISO, I am comfortable with my vote. These are the posts for reference. They are very townie but not enough.

So we're wasting our lynch again? Hell no.

Vote FA_Q2

I believe Wolf is town. I believe ika is town. And regardless of my townreads, two policy lynches in a row is not how you win games.

Shit will keep happening. People will keep playing in ways that you may personally believe to be subpar. But you don't lynch them for it. You try to figure out if they're town or not, and move on.

The point of the game is to lynch scum, and my vote above reflects that. I believe FA_Q2 is scum trying to burn through as many early game policy/mislynches as possible; since scum can't kill, the best way for early survival is to try and push these kinds of lynches, since it's harder to analyze policy votes later on as opposed to votes generated due to reads (basically, it's easier to push a mostly-policy lynch than completely fake reads as scum). I also have a minor scumread on Avatar now because of his reaction to Rosie flipping town as well as the ika vote.

@ People talking about ika being ruler because people have defended him:

You are making a bad argument. You are discounting the likely possibility of town defending their townreads. You are discounting the likely possibility that guards know better than to so strongly defend their ruler when all attention is on them. You are discounting the likely possibility that in this large of a game, the real ruler hasn't yet received a significant enough amount of pressure such that guards would have to risk associating themselves with them.

The majority of this game so far has revolved around ika, Wolf, and Rosie. Can we please step away from that now? It's a huge shiny distraction based mainly on reasoning relating more to policy lynches rather than actual scumhunting. Because of this, I think the real ruler has been able to largely stay under the radar in terms of suspicion, because people are so focused on namecalling and policy lynching that edges out any discussion with an actual chance of finding scum.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Nice speech. The best way to do that is to look at Game 4. FA treated his scumbuddies in a certain way. Look for parallels.

I just finished reading his scum game from Game 4.


FA implied or thought both his scum buddies (grandma and aye) could be scum beginning of game- musing thoughts and or responses to the whole weird PM situation.

FA wondered if Grandma was scum 65
FA iffy if Aye is town or not Aye 100

Went hard Mertex when Mertex voted for Grandma (SCUM), FA went even harder after Mertex 232

When voted for he pointed finger at others. 289, 290, 335, 446

BUT he also defended Avatar (town) on several occasions 359, then he started to call him scummy later
FA buddied me (town) and SR (town) jumped on a lot of peoples arguments who they thought were scum, but were town. 410

Stops Avatars (town) wagon, People fall off Avatar wagon, to include his scum partners, finally votes Avatar
Grandma (scum) out and out defended a vote against FA (scum). 859

Says if Grandma is scum IF” but ends with she will flip town, 971. Continues to try and lynch Avatar
Defends Grandma (scum) again 1085 because TN (town) never came back for hammer, and people were wondering if Grandma and TN were scum.

Calls Grandma scummy for her announcing hammer 1148 (distancing again) Reads Aye as town.

Mertex suspects Grandma’s intent to hammer (again), being wrong about Avi (town) and two others who suspected Grandma were NKed. FA comes in and says just because people are wrong (grandma (scum) stating intent to hammer) 1150, accuses Mertex (town) of being scum again. (soft defends again)

Grandma (scum) soft defends FA(scum) when I ask her thoughts on him. 1184

FA goes after Mertex (town) again 1287 but then supposes Grandma might be scum again, then kinda discounts the idea. 1288

So he seems to be following the popular consensus when it comes to his Grandma Reads but soft defends her all the while calling his partner scum, initially questions his other partners alignment (Aye) at start of game.

 

[CaféAuLait]

I simply do not have time to go through game 4 page by page to figure out FA. I did read some and saw that he kissed Cafe's ass and she was lynched because of it and saw the first fast moving wagon on TN had 2 scum on it-Aye and Grandma-and he avoided the wagon. He also avoided wagons here in this game on townies that resulted in a lynch but had no problem jumping on mine and Avi's.

My guess is scum are on the House and Rosie wagons and possibly the ika wagon. FA avoided Rosie, ika, and House wagons.

If someone else has time to figure out game 4, feel free. I don't think it's going to be the same because FA doesn't know his fellow guards here.

I agree it won't be the same, except for the Ruler. Look for the behaviors he used in game 4, unless he tried to change it up this game, which I doubt.

 

[CaféAuLait]

dang FA was the terminator. I'm curious who the other guards will be.

Did you doubt FA when he said he was scum before his lynch? Why?

I'm really trying to see you as town, ( since we have mislynched you so much in the past) when you ask admitted scum for their scum reads ( which is against their wincon) and then say what you did above, it is really confusing to me.

I has no doubt he was scum once he confessed. Why are you so upset that I tried to get more info from him?

I didn't think commenting on wakes choice of death scene pics was going to give

Ika would not be a bad candidate for lynching imho as he is simply not going to play. Getting any reads on him are going to be impossible.

However, it is not only to early BUT we should also not be lynching him unless there is no better option. At the very least, we need to be looking at his wagon as it developed VERY fast. That is usually a good indication that there is scum on it.

The list is:
Mertex
Avatar4321
ScarletRage
Wolfsister77
AyeCantSeeYou
House

Avatar gave his reason above. I would like the rest to restate why they jumped on ika so damn quickly.

Wants to lynch ika, defends Avi.

was he on ikas wagon?

This is the second or third time you asked me this and I answered several pages ago. It was kindergarten cop ( as I said prior) not the terminator. Your comparison did not make sense until you explained it to SR many pages back, where I address these same set of questions from you earlier.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Has @★Arden been prodded?

 

[Mertex]

so who did he think were guards again?

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

I'm thinking he wouldn't read the ruler as scum. After all, the ruler was his lifeline.

 

[Avatar4321]

so who did he think were guards again?

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

I'm thinking he wouldn't read the ruler as scum. After all, the ruler was his lifeline.

exactly. So those he did read as scum can be eliminated as the ruler

 

[CaféAuLait]

So Arden posted about 25 or so times in the game and there were only 2 posts that look town. After viewing her ISO, I am comfortable with my vote. These are the posts for reference. They are very townie but not enough.

So we're wasting our lynch again? Hell no.

Vote FA_Q2

I believe Wolf is town. I believe ika is town. And regardless of my townreads, two policy lynches in a row is not how you win games.

Shit will keep happening. People will keep playing in ways that you may personally believe to be subpar. But you don't lynch them for it. You try to figure out if they're town or not, and move on.

The point of the game is to lynch scum, and my vote above reflects that. I believe FA_Q2 is scum trying to burn through as many early game policy/mislynches as possible; since scum can't kill, the best way for early survival is to try and push these kinds of lynches, since it's harder to analyze policy votes later on as opposed to votes generated due to reads (basically, it's easier to push a mostly-policy lynch than completely fake reads as scum). I also have a minor scumread on Avatar now because of his reaction to Rosie flipping town as well as the ika vote.

@ People talking about ika being ruler because people have defended him:

You are making a bad argument. You are discounting the likely possibility of town defending their townreads. You are discounting the likely possibility that guards know better than to so strongly defend their ruler when all attention is on them. You are discounting the likely possibility that in this large of a game, the real ruler hasn't yet received a significant enough amount of pressure such that guards would have to risk associating themselves with them.

The majority of this game so far has revolved around ika, Wolf, and Rosie. Can we please step away from that now? It's a huge shiny distraction based mainly on reasoning relating more to policy lynches rather than actual scumhunting. Because of this, I think the real ruler has been able to largely stay under the radar in terms of suspicion, because people are so focused on namecalling and policy lynching that edges out any discussion with an actual chance of finding scum.

I get she is not posting, and IKA also pointed out she is playing elsewhere. However, those posts above scream town to me. She seemed to stop playing because of the drama. I may be far off but I would like to know if Wake prodded her.

Ika, have you asked her if she is coming back since you see she is playing elsewhere? Or is that against the rules of the game being PMs about the game?

 

[Wolfsister77]

Mathblade is the one playing elsewhere and 2 posts out of 26 looking extremely town does not a townie make. Scum are capable of making townie posts also. She was also one of FA's townreads along with Aye. So that is something else as damning because she hadn't even said much at the time for him to call her town. She may have stopped posting. Wake hasn't said anything even though I asked him to prod her at least a day or 2 ago.

As far as who FA's scumreads are-that just means myself and SR aren't the ruler. I know I'm not the ruler and I don't suspect her of being the ruler either but I do suspect a townread of FA's who hadn't said much to be given that kind of read. Especially when he had so many nulls.

I'd also be willing to lynch mathblade or Shaitra and possibly SR.

Avi would be someone I would hammer to break a NL type situation.

I'm not really considering anyone else right now.

 

[Mertex]

So Arden posted about 25 or so times in the game and there were only 2 posts that look town. After viewing her ISO, I am comfortable with my vote. These are the posts for reference. They are very townie but not enough.

So we're wasting our lynch again? Hell no.

Vote FA_Q2

I believe Wolf is town. I believe ika is town. And regardless of my townreads, two policy lynches in a row is not how you win games.

Shit will keep happening. People will keep playing in ways that you may personally believe to be subpar. But you don't lynch them for it. You try to figure out if they're town or not, and move on.

The point of the game is to lynch scum, and my vote above reflects that. I believe FA_Q2 is scum trying to burn through as many early game policy/mislynches as possible; since scum can't kill, the best way for early survival is to try and push these kinds of lynches, since it's harder to analyze policy votes later on as opposed to votes generated due to reads (basically, it's easier to push a mostly-policy lynch than completely fake reads as scum). I also have a minor scumread on Avatar now because of his reaction to Rosie flipping town as well as the ika vote.

@ People talking about ika being ruler because people have defended him:

You are making a bad argument. You are discounting the likely possibility of town defending their townreads. You are discounting the likely possibility that guards know better than to so strongly defend their ruler when all attention is on them. You are discounting the likely possibility that in this large of a game, the real ruler hasn't yet received a significant enough amount of pressure such that guards would have to risk associating themselves with them.

The majority of this game so far has revolved around ika, Wolf, and Rosie. Can we please step away from that now? It's a huge shiny distraction based mainly on reasoning relating more to policy lynches rather than actual scumhunting. Because of this, I think the real ruler has been able to largely stay under the radar in terms of suspicion, because people are so focused on namecalling and policy lynching that edges out any discussion with an actual chance of finding scum.

I get she is not posting, and IKA also pointed out she is playing elsewhere. However, those posts above scream town to me. She seemed to stop playing because of the drama. I may be far off but I would like to know if Wake prodded her.

Ika, have you asked her if she is coming back since you see she is playing elsewhere? Or is that against the rules of the game being PMs about the game?

Both Arden and Math were discouraged with the drama and quit posting. It's like they don't care if Town loses, why Math even voted for herself. That's too bad, because if we go after them for not posting and they flip town, they won't care that we'll lose.

Arden posted some good points and went after FA. And, I believe when she said that the real ruler hasn't yet received a significant enough amount of pressure such that guards would have to risk associating themselves with him.

I don't know how we're going to decide who is the next vote.

Right now my only town reads are:
WS
Aye
Cafe
Myself

My not Sure are:
Arden
Math
Josh
Ika

My possibly Scum are:
Avatar
Shaitra
Grandma
SR

 

[CaféAuLait]

so who did he think were guards again?

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

I'm thinking he wouldn't read the ruler as scum. After all, the ruler was his lifeline.

exactly. So those he did read as scum can be eliminated as the ruler

Given he read his teammates as scum in game 4, (also lifelines for scum) I can't entirely agree with these statements. He only had one firm scum read on his list anyway, SR. IIRC he was leaning scum for you and said wolf was antitown or scum. I may have forgotten someone.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Mathblade is the one playing elsewhere and 2 posts out of 26 looking extremely town does not a townie make. Scum are capable of making townie posts also. She was also one of FA's townreads along with Aye. So that is something else as damning because she hadn't even said much at the time for him to call her town. She may have stopped posting. Wake hasn't said anything even though I asked him to prod her at least a day or 2 ago.

As far as who FA's scumreads are-that just means myself and SR aren't the ruler. I know I'm not the ruler and I don't suspect her of being the ruler either but I do suspect a townread of FA's who hadn't said much to be given that kind of read. Especially when he had so many nulls.

I'd also be willing to lynch mathblade or Shaitra and possibly SR.

Avi would be someone I would hammer to break a NL type situation.

I'm not really considering anyone else right now.

See my post above about FA scum reads.

I thought IKA said it was Arden playing elsewhere?

 

[Wolfsister77]

I'd say FA did not think I was a fellow guard and definitely not he ruler the way he tried to get me lynched all game.

 

[Mertex]

so who did he think were guards again?

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

I'm thinking he wouldn't read the ruler as scum. After all, the ruler was his lifeline.

exactly. So those he did read as scum can be eliminated as the ruler

Given he read his teammates as scum in game 4, (also lifelines for scum) I can't entirely agree with these statements. He only had one firm scum read on his list anyway, SR. IIRC he was leaning scum for you and said wolf was antitown or scum. I may have forgotten someone.

No Cafe, in Game 4, there was no Scum in a position where if he died the other Scum associated with him would die also. This game is unique in that the guards have to keep the ruler alive even if they die, because once we get the ruler, whatever guards are still alive, die too.