Maryland Patriot
Gold Member
- Jun 10, 2015
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not really. we are talking about a poll, people as you are well aware will claim all day long that they are tired of the way things are going, they are sick of their party and are going to vote for the other guy. But when election day comes around and they are standing in the booth, that R or that D is more compelling than anything they were thinking before they walked in.not what I saidThe difference between a lock and a lean at the same number is the past history of people changing their minds on election day.How do your facts conflict with the pretty colors ?
If you had actually read, you would already have your answer. States are being labeled as without much regard. Kentucky polls at +13 for Trump, but is labeled as a lock. Why is +13 a lock in KY, but +15 is merely "leans" in CT?
Evidently in Kentucky the polls have produced fairly accurate numbers where at the same time the polls in Connecticut have been shown to swing drastically.
So.....Texas and South Carolina have a history of changing their mind and going blue?
No. But based on the explanation, it's a necessary consequent.
In your example, the change actually happened on election day, in the booths and in great enough numbers to actually switch the states historically documented pattern of voting.
I assume that people are talking out their ass when polled, you assume that people are telling the truth.
Cant speak for the states I don't live in but I can tell you this about Maryland based on past elections.
Clinton will get all of the electoral votes from Maryland and no democrats will lose their seats come November. And I don't care what polls may or may not come up with. Its just fact.